Pinpointing ascendant players can prove to be the extra jolt you need to get your team over the top in the grind of a fantasy season. Getting in on the ground floor of a player's value is the key, but who are some examples of potential breakout candidates in 2014?
Note: Breakout doesn't necessarily mean a player who comes out of nowhere to produce. It can also be a player who has shown flashes of brilliance and finally puts it all together on the field.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Margus Hunt, Cincinnati
- Games Played: 10
- Tackles: 1
- Assists: 2
- Sacks: 0.5
- Snaps Played: 170
Why he could break out: Despite his hulking six-foot-eight, 280lb frame, Hunt is an intriguing pass rusher and had the fastest time from snap to sack – 2.5 seconds – in his college days. He has versatility to play the three technique DT on passing downs.
Potential stumbling blocks: Hunt is a raw, raw player who had to come to the sidelines at times last season and asked defensive line coach Jay Hayes what his assignment was.
Offseason buzz: what they're saying: Aforementioned defensive line coach Hayes wants Hunt to focus on one position to "boost his development", so while Hunt may be moved inside in obvious passing situations, his main position will be left defensive end.
Outlook: The 26-year-old former Southern Methodist prospect endured something of a redshirt year in 2013, his rookie season. Playing only 170 snaps and looking out of sorts and downright confused with his assignment at times, the Bengals wisely kept him out of the line-up to learn. As an older prospect, his upside isn't as high as some of the other defensive linemen on this list, but his path to production may be shorter if he can overcome veteran incumbent Wallace Gilberry and rookie Will Clarke. The Bengals will be eager to see a return on their investment in 2014. With Michael Johnson headed for pastures new in Florida, Hunt has an opening; the question is, can he take it?
Ezekial Ansah, Detroit
- Games Played: 14
- Tackles: 18
- Assists: 12
- Sacks: 8.5
- Forced Fumbles: 2
- Passes Defensed: 1
- Snaps Played: 581
Why he could break out: Ezekial Ansah showed flashes of his elite upside in his rookie year despite only playing part-time. Predominantly aligned at right defensive end, Ansah led all rookies with eight sacks and added an impressive 22 quarterback hurries. Tellingly, new Lions coach Jim Caldwell has retained Jim Washburn, the defensive line coach under Jim Schwartz, presumably to maintain a sense of continuity. Ansah will be the primary beneficiary and could see his snap count jump into the 800-950 range.
Potential stumbling blocks: A report emerged on February 20th that Ansah had undergone shoulder surgery to remedy a lingering issue from the tail end of last season. The details are vague, and Fox Sports' Alex Marvez’s report indicated that the former BYU standout "should" be ready for Week 1. However, Ansah is not due to take part in OTAs and this injury could hamper his development if it lingers into training camp.
Offseason buzz: what they're saying: All quiet on that front for Ansah, but little needs to be said for a player only scratching the surface of his vast potential.
Outlook: Ansah has the elite traits – size, strength, a variety of pass-rushing moves – to trouble any offensive tackle in a one on one situation. The surrounding cast of Nick Fairley, Ndamukong Suh and Jason Jones aren't too shabby; they will allow Ansah his fair share of favourable matchups. If he can show the kind of development he showed in his rookie year, 2014 could see him vault into the top 10 conversation at defensive end. All the pieces are in place for a strong campaign – with the one caveat being his recovery from shoulder surgery.
Damontre Moore, NY Giants
- Games Played: 15
- Tackles: 3
- Assists: 2
- Sacks: 0
- Forced Fumbles: 1
- Passes Defensed: 1
- Snaps Played: 136
Why he could break out: The depth chart at defensive end in the Meadowlands is wide open after the departure of veteran Justin Tuck. The Giants, tellingly, did not pour any draft capital into the position and seem to be high on the talent of Moore. All this leads to the behemoth defensive end getting much more playing time – and possibly even a full-time role – in his second year. It's the perfect marriage of opportunity and talent – and the Giants know a thing or two about developing defensive ends.
Potential stumbling blocks: Very few obvious ones, apart from his general lack of experience under a full workload. In the pre-draft process some felt Moore would be a liability in run defense. The Giants also signed Robert Ayers and still have Mathias Kiwanuka, so safer, veteran options abound for the old school conservative Tom Coughlin.
Offseason buzz: what they're saying: Despite undergoing shoulder surgery this offseason, the Giants brass believe in Moore's abilities and ESPN's Dan Graziano reported earlier this offseason that the team was expecting a "big leap" in 2014.
Outlook: Defensive ends generally have a steep learning curve, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Moore used in a part-time role (30 to 35 snaps per game) in the first few weeks of the season. However, with only Kiwanuka and Ayers ahead of him, Moore isn't exactly facing the stiffest competition. Moore's upside is an eight to 10 sack season and will be at least a strong DL4+ for his owners.
Dion Jordan, Miami
- Games Played: 16
- Tackles: 18
- Assists: 6
- Sacks: 2
- Passes Defensed: 2
- Snaps Played: 339
Why he could break out: After a tumultuous offseason for last year's number three overall pick pockmarked by trade talks and debate over his position, Dion Jordan, on the surface, presents more questions than answers. At this time last year he was unable to practice with a shoulder injury, stunting his growth; a year removed, reports indicate he has bulked up to 265lbs from his previous 248lbs. With Jordan, the issue was never talent; since excelling in his hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role at Oregon, he has been viewed as a high-end player.
Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin said of the young pass rusher's sophomore season:
"Growth and development are two words I think of when I think of (Jordan). We've got to get him up to speed on the fundamentals at his position, which were new last season for him."
Clearly, the message from on high about Jordan is patience as he becomes accustomed to what is essentially a new position for him. If the Dolphins brass can utilise Jordan in the right situations to maximise his abilities, he could take a huge leap forward in 2014.
Potential stumbling blocks: Jordan's progress to a starting berth – or at least a more prominent role – is blocked by the players ahead of him at defensive end, perennial top-10 fantasy option Cameron Wake and up-and-comer Olivier Vernon. Despite looking like "(Jordan) took an air pump to his arms and legs" in OTAs recently, according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, the developing defensive end will not be able to supplant this pair easily. Add in his steep learning curve and you can certainly make an argument that Jordan could flop once again in his second season.
Offseason buzz: what they're saying: Head coach Joe Philbin admitted the Dolphins contemplated moving Jordan to outside linebacker, but opted against it. Jordan has conceded that: "I was definitely too light to go out there against some of those offensive tackles. This year I had the opportunity to have an offseason where I can take care of my body. I'm trying to move forward and continue to try to better myself in a few areas."
Outlook: It will be up to defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle to get the best out of the talented Jordan, but concerns over his ability to transition to a three-point stance at defensive end muddy the waters somewhat for what is an important season for the pass rusher. Overcoming Vernon and Wake will not be easy; Jordan may have the widest range of possibilities of any IDP prospect this season, but if he hits, he'll hit big.
LINEBACKERS
Kevin Minter, Arizona
- Games Played: 13
- Tackles: 0
- Assists: 0
- Snaps Played: 1
Why he could break out: Minter's talent is undeniable; he showed the skills to be a very solid run defender in college and he is able to cover a lot of ground quickly. If he is to make a smooth transition in Karlos Dansby's stead, he will have to be willing to take on blocks inside and be physical. The team's plan is to plug Minter right in despite playing only one defensive snap in 2013. If Minter can lock down a three-down role, he could easily reach 70-75% of Dansby's 2013 production (122 tackles, 6.5 sacks and 19 pass breakups). Add in that Daryl Washington will be suspended for a year and Minter may even get a chance at the weakside inside position.
Potential stumbling blocks: Very few other than his lack of experience. Minter played only one defensive snap all year in his rookie season, but the news of Washington's suspension leaves the door wide open for a big role. Minter was already in line for a larger piece of the pie with Dansby's departure for Cleveland, and the Cardinals made no significant moves in free agency or the draft at the position. The path appears clear for Minter.
Offseason buzz: what they're saying: The chatter about Minter has been mostly positive this offseason. Head coach Bruce Arians said in March that Minter "should assume" the strong inside linebacker position vacated by Karlos Dansby. In April, it was reported that the team would move Lorenzo Alexander inside to compete with Minter, but the Daryl Washington news may put paid to that. At OTAs recently, in a significant vote of confidence by the coaching staff, Minter was making all the defensive calls and pre-snap adjustments.
Outlook: Kevin Minter has been launched into the spotlight with the Washington news and Dansby's move to Cleveland, so his prospects for this season look very good indeed. Don't be surprised if he reaches 80 solo tackles and produces steady LB2 numbers.
Vincent Rey, Cincinnati
- Games Played: 47
- Tackles: 51
- Assists: 23
- FUMBLE RECOVERIES: 1
- Passes Defensed: 6
- Snaps Played (2013): 353
Why he could break out: Entering his fourth season, Rey is one of the only players on this list who can be called a true 'veteran' of the league. He didn't get his first real opportunity to impress until last season, however, when an injury to Rey Maualuga forced him into action. Rey didn't let the coaching staff down; in fact, he looked like an upgrade on his sidelined compatriot both against the run and in coverage. Rey flashed on tape in the games he started last season and the coaching staff's decision to give him reps with the first team in OTAs is a promising early sign.
Potential stumbling blocks: Rey Maualuga is still the starter by name, but he has shown to be only a middle of the road player for the Bengals throughout his career. Rey offers more upside, so an impressive preseason could be what tips the scales his way.
Offseason buzz: what they're saying: The Bengals inked Rey to a two-year extension this past March, a nod to his solid contribution – predominantly on special teams – during his four years in the Queen City. The team is getting Rey for a song – his base salary is only $1m this year, rising to $2m in 2015. The fact that Rey has been given the opportunity to start in OTAs could be the beginning of the end for Maualuga.
Outlook: Rey has the look of a player poised to reach the peak of his powers in the not too distant future. His short-term future is secure in Cincinnati and the team clearly has faith in him. His main competition Rey Maualuga is out of contract after this season, so the Bengals would be wise to give Rey every opportunity to earn the starting middle linebacker job for the long term. Rey could easily be a LB2-/LB3+ this season and is well worth investing in.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
D.J. Swearinger, Houston
- Games Played: 16
- Tackles: 50
- Assists: 16
- Sacks: 0
- Forced Fumbles: 1
- Passes Defensed: 4
- INTERCEPTIONS: 1
- Snaps Played: 827
Why he could break out: The opportunity is there for Swearinger to take a step forward from the steep learning curve he faced in 2013 and the team clearly fancy him as their long-term option at strong safety.
Potential stumbling blocks: The Texans have good talent up front in Brian Cushing, JJ Watt and now Jadeveon Clowney to gobble up tackles, but Brooks Reed, who is set to start inside alongside Cushing, isn't an ideal fit. That could lead to missed assignments and some tidy-up tackles for Swearinger. Overall, the young safety has very few obstacles to overcome to be at worst a DB2.
Offseason buzz: what they're saying: The buzz has been quiet on Swearinger, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. He is a lock to get the first look at strong safety and faces little competition for the position.
Outlook: Solid DB2 numbers should be a near certainty for Swearinger in a defense that, while improved on paper, still has question marks.
