Welcome to Week 3 of The Docket, a weekly column that will highlight rule and policy issues effecting players as well as offer strategy and advice on a select few players that you should be targeting or avoiding.
ON TRIAL
This is where we will highlight pressing issues that will have a major impact on your season.
Josh Gordon (WR, Clev) – The NFLPA voted last week to approve the leagues new drug policy. The changes to the policies still need to be approved by the league, but that is expected to happen this week. One reason for the delay was that teams didn’t want players such as Wes Welker to be reinstated on short notice, potentially giving teams like the Denver Broncos an edge in Week 2.
Once ratified by the league, Josh Gordon will serve a ten game suspension. Including the two games he already missed and taking into account the Browns bye week, Gordon should be back with the team Week 12. So if you are able to hold onto him, you will get him for the final two games of the Fantasy regular season and have him for the playoffs. He truly is an every week difference maker.
There were also reports today that Gordon pleaded guilty to his driving under the influence (DUI) charge in order to avoid a mandatory two game suspension under the new drug and conduct policy changes. Pretty shrewd move on his teams behalf, although Goodell could always still suspend him, but not as likely now.
Per the Cleveland Plains Dealer, important changes in the new drug policy include:
NEUTRAL ARBITRATION: An Independent Arbitrator will hear appeals for positive test violations of both Substance Abuse and Performance Enhancing Drug Policies. The NFL and NFLPA will jointly select, approve and pay for retention of 3-5 arbitrators.
AMENDING MARIJUANA POLICIES: The threshold for a positive test for marijuana will increase to 35 ng/ml from the previous limit of 15 ng/ml. There will be additional steps for players who test positive for the substance before suspension.
RETROACTIVITY: Discipline of players for certain violations in the 2014 League Year will have their discipline adjusted by certain aspects of the new policies.
DRIVING UNDER THE INFLUENCE: Players successfully rejected the league's proposal to issue discipline upon arrest, prior to adjudication. A two-game suspension will be issued upon conviction or plea agreement for violations of law involving alcohol and driving.
AMPHETAMINES: During the off-season, a first time positive test for amphetamines without a Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) will now be evaluated under the Substances of Abuse Policy. During the season, a positive test without a TUE will continue to be a violation of the Performance Enhancing Drug Policy.
HUMAN GROWTH HORMONE TESTING: Testing for HGH will occur in the 2014 season. Players have the right to challenge any aspect of the science of the HGH isoforms test. The collection of blood specimens is prohibited on game days and the science for testing for HGH is still very murky and the drug does not stay in the body for more than a few days, which makes testing tough as well.
DISCIPLINE FOR BREACHES OF CONFIDENTIALITY: The NFL and NFLPA will have the right to retain independent investigators to review cases where player confidentiality related to the drug policies has been breached.
Wes Welker (WR, Den) – We should see Welker return to action this week. His use of methamphetamines would now fall under the leagues substance abuse policy, in which case, it would merely be Welker’s first violation of the policy, and carry no suspension.
Ray Rice (RB) - Rice is set to appeal his indefinite suspension for knocking out his then fiancé. Rice was given a two game ban, so being suspended a second time for the same offense could be a violation of his rights. This appeals process could take some time and then he would still need to be picked up by a team, since he was dropped by the Ravens. With so much drama surrounding this situation, we don’t expect him back this season, but it is certainly something to monitor.
Adrian Peterson (RB, Minn) – Peterson was indicted by a Texas court for beating his 4 year old child with a “switch.” He subsequently turned himself in to the police, was booked and released on bond as he awaits trial that is supposed to take place early next year. No matter where you stand on the issue of spanking/paddling your child, Peterson’s actions certainly were over the line, even per his own texts to the child’s mother. Immediately after the indictment and the release of the photos of his child’s wounds, the Vikings suspended Peterson for Week 2. On Monday, the Viking’s reinstated him and he seems set to go this week despite another reported claim of abuse that has since been refuted.
As for the Peterson’s future, according to FOX's Jay Glazer, Peterson's case will be reviewed under the NFL's new domestic violence policy and not the personal conduct policy. First-time offenders of the domestic violence policy get a six-game suspension, with a potential for more if a child is present. Since this is a new policy and since this incident actually involved a child, we are not sure how many games Peterson would actually be suspended for if convicted. Additionally, except in extreme cases, Commissioner Goodell stated that they would wait for the adjudication of a player's case before taking action. In this instance, we are not sure if this is one of those extreme cases or not and a league suspension could still be in the cards, especially since the Radisson recently pulled their sponsorship of the Viking's, and when the money starts going, so does the player. In redraft leagues, the hope is that Peterson is available all year but it makes sense to keep Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon rostered if you own them. As for those in dynasty leagues, you may want to trade Peterson if he goes off next Sunday.
ON THE STAND
This is where we look at issues that could have an impact on your season.
Bad Matchups – Many fantasy players are freaking out over the lack of production of marquee players such as Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen. But don’t fret, a few bad matchups a year are inevitable and they can limit the production of even the most elite players. Last season, Jimmy Graham was essentially eliminated from a game against New England by Aqib Talib. This season, Lacy has faced two of the toughest run defenses in the league in back-to-back weeks, playing Seattle and then the Jets. He gets another tough matchup this week against the Lions, but then things get much easier. The only tough defense on his schedule after this week will be Carolina in Week 7. As for Allen, he was blanketed by Patrick Peterson in Week 1 and then faced Richard Sherman in Week 2. Despite the tough matchup this week, he was still able to catch 5 balls for 55 yards. That he was able to put up those sorts of numbers is a great sign that Allen should truly shine the rest of the season. Don’t abandon your studs, even if they are off to a slow start due to poor matchups.
CASE PENDING
This is where we look at select players who are on the verge of an upgrade or downgrade.
Alfred Blue (RB, Hou) – While Jonathan Grimes is still involved, it is pretty evident that Blue is the primary handcuff to Arian Foster. Foster is killing it right now, but you know his hammy will act up at some point. If you are a Foster owner, Blue is a must own, and if you are looking for upside, he is a great roster stash.
Davante Adams (WR, GB) – Adams is Green Bay’s second round selection from this year’s draft. While he is not a burner, he is a big kid, who runs great routes and has reliable hands. Last year in college, he had 131 receptions for 1718 yards and 24 TDs. Adams fits as a perfect replacement to the departed James Jones as the team’s possession receiver and he certainly has more talent than Jarrett Boykin. While it usually takes rookies a year or two to get up to speed, especially in Green Bay, they certainly like him and it looks like he may have already leaped Boykin for that third receiver spot. This week had caught 5 balls on seven targets for 50 yards, while Boykin only caught one pass for 6 yards. While not a must add in shallow leagues, he is certainly worth a flier in deeper ones and is a must own in all dynasty leagues.
Bobby Rainey (RB, TB) - While not elite athlete, Rainey simply knows how to get the job done. After Doug Martin went down last year, Rainey rushed for 566 yards and five touchdowns, including a 163-yard, 2-touchdown Week 11 against Atlanta and a 127-yard, 1-touchdown Week 14 against Buffalo. He was at it again this week, rushing for 144 yards on 22 carries against an elite Rams defensive unit. He also added 3 catches for an additional 30 yards. Martin has not been very impressive dating back to last season, so Rainey may be tough to bench even when Martin comes back.
Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley (RB, NE) – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is up to his old Belatricks. In Week 1, it looked like Vereen was headed for a monster season as both the teams lead and passing down back. Come Week 2, and it was all Ridley who carried the rock 25 times for 101 yards and a touchdown. One thing is clear, Belichick certainly doesn’t care about fantasy football and implements his game plan, rides the hot hand and remains tough to rely on for any sort of consistency. In PPR leagues, you have to continue to roll out Vereen every week, but just temper expectations until we can get a full read on how things go. As for Ridley, he’s certainly worth a flex paly, but I would still be hesitant to plug him in as your number two running back just yet. He’s more of a flex play.
Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) - Kaepernick started hot this week, but ended up throwing 3 interceptions and essentially self destructed in the second half of Sunday nights game. He fumbled, was sacked 4 times and made more than a few errant throws. Fortunately, he usually puts up numbers with his legs, but he is certainly tough to trust going forward. Hurting him even more is that fact that Vernon Davis injured his ankle, taking away his main safety blanket. If you are a Kap owner and don’t have a decent second option, you got to ride with him, but I would search the waiver wire and maybe take a gamble on Kirk Cousins, who looked pretty good this past week.
Toby Gerhart (RB, Jax) – Gerhart is proving to be the backup he was initially drafted by the Viking’s to be. He carried the ball 7 times for 8 yards and looked sluggish. If you are a Gerhart owner, there is now way you can start him until you start seeing something. I would also invest a waiver wire pick in Storm Johnson, who could be this years Zac Stacy sooner than we thought.
CASE DISMISSED
This is where we highlight players that are looking particularly good.
Jeremy Hill (RB, Cin) – Hill continues to ascend, carrying the rock 15 times for 74 yards and a touchdown. He also caught two balls for 22 yards. As Cincy OC Hue Jackson made clear after last weeks game, they want to keep getting Hill involved in the offense and we expect him to receive between 15 and 20 touches a game. He’s a bigger back then Giovanni Bernard and runs right through people.
Lamar Miller (RB, Mia) – Many people remain skeptical of Miller’s talent, but he had a great pre-season and has looked pretty good in two games so far. And don’t be fooled, the Bills defense is pretty darn good. Miller did leave this weeks game with an ankle injury although the team said he could have returned if needed. It’s something to monitor, but if he is getting the majority of snaps, this is a run based offense that can produce a ton of fantasy value.
Antonio Gates (TE, SD) – If you own Gates start him. Don’t worry about matchup, don’t worry about other options, just start him. He is an injury risk, but as long as he is healthy, ride the hot hand. Gates and River’s have played together many years and River’s looks to him often. Granted, Keenan Allen has had two tough matchups, so some of the volume may dissipate, but there is enough to go around to feed both players.
Darren Sproles (RB, Phi) – Chris Polk is LeSean McCoy’s backup. Darren Sproles is an offensive weapon and Chip Kelly knows how to use him. If you have McCoy and Sproles in a PPR league and are not playing both of them, you are leaving points on your bench. Right now he is an every week starter and needs to be in your lineup.
Terrance West and Knile Davis (RB) - As long as Ben Tate and Jamaal Charles are out, start these stud backups. They are every week RB1s as long as they are getting the start. This is a strong reminder to back up your other studs.
THOUGHTS FROM THE BENCH
Here is where we highlight situations or strategies that are worth monitoring.
Blood Bath – The first two weeks of the 2014 season may go down in fantasy football infamy. In addition to Alshon Jeffery, Adrian Peterson, Jordan Reed, Sam Bradford, Jordan Cameron, Carson Palmer and Doug Martin being injured or held out after Week 1, in Week 2 we saw the loss of AJ Green, Robert Griffin III III (RG3), Knowshon Moreno, DeSean Jackson, Roy Helu, Allen Hurns, Jamaal Charles, Eric Decker, Tavon Austin, Mark Ingram, Vernon Davis, Ryan Mathews ... did I miss anyone? As someone mentioned on Twitter, it was like Game of Thrones, nobody was safe. It is entirely conceivable that your team was decimated, but the season is not over. Play the waiver wire, make some bold trades, fight with everything you have. And above all … back up your stud running backs.
