Welcome to The Docket, a new weekly column that will highlight rule and policy issues effecting players as well as offer strategy and advice on a select few players that you should be targeting or avoiding.
ON TRIAL
This is where we will highlight pressing issues that will have a major impact on your season.
Ray Rice - We begin this week with Ray Rice, who was just released by the Ravens and suspended by the league indefinitely for his brutal attack on his then fiancé in an elevator earlier this year. Once the full video was released, the Ravens organization moved swiftly to release him. Given his age and the negative impact an incident like this has on the image of the league, we very well may have seen Rice play he last down.
Rice is not a recommended hold even in the deepest of dynasty leagues, while Bernard Pierce, who seems like the logical replacement, had a lackluster 2013 and was benched this past weekend. As for who may pick up the slack, Justin Forsett is an obvious add and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro could also have some value, but I think Dennis Pitta and Steve Smith certainly could be in for even bigger seasons as Baltimore throws more. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they bring in someone else or make a trade for some new blood. CJ Spiller anyone?
Josh Gordon (WR, Clev)– Just when it seemed like Gordon was done for the year, there is hope once again that he may be cleared to play this season. As ESPN reported, after more than two years of negotiations, the NFL Players Association’s 32 player reps are set to vote this Tuesday on proposed changes to NFL’s drug policy. The proposed policy will include human growth hormone testing for the first time, as well as make significant changes that raise limits for marijuana testing and expand neutral arbitration.
As it effects Gordon, if the marijuana limit is raised, as is being discussed, players punished under the old limits this past year may have their punishments retroactively overturned. Whether or not the new policy will pass is still uncertain and whether it will apply retroactively is even more tenuous.
Nonetheless, we remain optimistic that this new policy will be passed sometime this season and Gordon is an every week difference maker, so he should be owned in all leagues. While we don’t suggest dropping a marquee player, extra defenses, backup quarterbacks, WR4’s and below and deep stash running backs are all candidates for release. No guts, no glory.
Wes Welker (WR, Den) – Similar to Gordon, changes to the NFL drug policy could lead to a retraction of Welker’s four game suspension. Currently his drug use fell under the performance enhancing drug policy, which mandates a four game suspension. Under the new policy, his use of methamphetamines would fall under the substance abuse policy, in which case, it would merely be Welker’s first violation of the policy, and carry no suspension.
ON THE STAND
This is where we look at issues that could have an impact on your season.
Defensive Holding/Illegal Contact Penalties – With the passing of new illegal contact and defensive holding rules this off-season, we saw a record number of penalties called during the preseason. These rules certainly benefit wide receivers, but as I wrote earlier this year, these rules benefit a wide range of offensive players as well. While officials didn’t throw as many flags Week 1 as they did during the pre-season, through the first 13 games, these rules certainly had an impact on play. There were 12 illegal contact calls, 4.5 times the amount called last year per game, and there were 17 defensive holding penalties, 1.5 times as many as last season per game. Not tugging a jersey seems like an easier adjustment for defensive players to make than bumping a receiver after the 5yd line and this has so far just led to the extension of some drives. But once defensive backs stop bumping receivers, I think we could see an increase in big plays and long touchdowns, as receivers will be running cleanly. Stay tuned.
CASE PENDING
This is where we look at select players who are on the verge of an upgrade or downgrade.
Zac Stacy (RB, STL) – If you are relying on Stacy to be one of your starting running backs this season, not only would I make sure you own Benny Cunningham, but I would be working the waiver wire and trade options to try and get an upgrade at the position. While it is just one game, Stacy certainly has no lock on the lead back duties as Cunningham played on more snaps, which is worrisome since both guys are volume backs.
Jeremy Hill (RB, Cin) – Rumors all pre-season were that Hill was going to get a good number of touches every week, however that never materialized Week 1. He was left carrying the rock only 4 times, although for a solid 4.75 yds per carry. Even more surprising was that new OC Hue Jackson, who is known for running the ball, put the offense on the shoulders of Andy Dalton, only calling 18 run plays in total. Right after the game Jackson admitted to Hill that he should have gotten him more involved and has stated that this should change going forward. While he is no lock, Hill is a great buy low candidate.
CASE DISMISSED
This is where we highlight players that are looking particularly good.
LeVeon Bell (RB, Pit) – Many owners were scared that LeGarrette Blount would steal significant touches from Bell this year, but Bell looked phenomenal this past week. Around the NFL’s Chris Wessling noted that Bell looked quicker and had an extra gear that he didn't have last year. Our own Sigmund Bloom then noted that if the fantasy draft were held today, Bell would be a mid-first round pick, probably even higher than Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. Even though it is just one game, we tend to agree. If you drafted Bell at the end of the second or in the third round, you got a steal.
Miami Running Backs – Knowshon Moreno may have had the more dominant performance this past week, but Lamar Miller had a very good game as well. The Miami offensive line dominated the line of scrimmage and new Miami Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor, comes from the Chip Kelly school of play, where the Eagles ran the 4th most running plays of any team last season. Lazor knows how to create space in the run game and we wouldn’t be surprised if both backs have value all season. While Moreno has solid RB2 value at the moment, Miller certainly has solid flex value, especially in PPR leagues.
Dennis Pitta (TE, Bal) and Steve Smith (WR, Bal) – While Torrey Smith is the sexy player to own, it certainly looks like Pitta and Steve Smith will have the more consistent value on a week-to-weep basis on this team. Pitta and Steve Smith each received 15 targets, while Torrey Smith only had 7, many of them deep shots. As mentioned earlier, with Ray Rice being suspended, their value should only increase.
THOUGHTS FROM THE BENCH
Here is where we highlight situations or strategies that are worth monitoring.
Rookie Receivers - If you are in a dynasty league, do yourself a favor, and grab a piece of this year’s wide receiver class. This is truly a special and rare class of receivers. Brandin Cooks, Allen Hurns, John Brown, Marqise Lee, and Kelvin Benjamin all had good games in Week 1, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. Next year you will certainly see Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr Donte Moncrief, Davante Adams, Cody Latimer, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, and Paul Richardson Jr all make significant impacts. Grab them while they are cheap, because come next year, you will be paying a premium.
Week 1 – Don’t overreact, it’s just one week of football. While more fringe players like Blount may not be that flex player you hoped they would be, players like Eddie Lacy and Adrian Peterson will be fine. The Seahawks and the Rams have great defensive lines; so running against them is expected to be difficult. Just be glad that they don’t have to go up against them every week. On the other hand, also be proactive on the waiver wire, as that is where you will truly win or lose your season. Make sure you are always looking to better your team. And in the case of a player like Tom Brady, it is fine to bench him in favor of a player like Carson Palmer if the matchup is good. Play to win, you got this!
