There will be many impact defenders in this draft class. However, due to scheme and positional classification, their on-field impact may not translate to fantasy production. This year, more than any in recent memory, the IDP value of a rookie will be tied to your scoring system and lineup requirements.
Defensive Line
The 2014 draft class had an above-average number of pass rushing prospects with immediate and long term upside. Unfortunately, all but a small handful will be classified as linebackers. Of those that will be listed as defensive ends, only Demarcus Lawrence is likely to see extended playing time this season. Those in leagues that require a defensive tackle in starting lineups will have two strong candidates to pursue.
DT Aaron Donald, St. Louis Rams
The Rams are a great fit for Donald, who compares favorably to Geno Atkins and Gerald McCoy as a potentially dominant, penetrating interior lineman. Donald will line up as a three-technique next to Robert Quinn, likely ensuring that Donald sees very few double teams unless opposing offensive lines get creative with their blocking schemes.
2014 Outlook: DT1 upside
Dynasty Ceiling: Elite DT | ETA: Early 2014
DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys
The depth chart in Dallas is wide open. Replacement level talents like Jeremy Mincey and George Selvie are the current starters. A quick start from Lawrence in training camp could be enough to vault him into a large number of rotational snaps. Lawrence has some technical development ahead of him, but he has a mix of size and speed that fits the rush first scheme the Cowboys will run. He’ll also benefit from the teachings of Rod Marinelli.
2014 Outlook: DE3 with matchup upside
Dynasty Ceiling: DE1 | ETA: Early-Mid 2014
DT Dominique Easley, New England Patriots
Easley wasn’t far behind Donald in pure talent, but fell to the end of the first round due to his size (less than 290 pounds) and concerns about torn ACLs in both knees (2011 and 2013). He has a lightning fast first (and second and third) steps and finishes in the pocket well. Like Donald, he’ll line up next to an established and dominant young defensive end (Chandler Jones) and will be difficult to double team.
2014 Outlook: DT2 with matchup upside
Dynasty Ceiling: Elite DT | ETA: Early-Mid 2014
DE Kony Ealy, Carolina Panthers
Ealy will play a limited rotational role behind Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson this year. Ealy has an intriguing mix of power and athleticism to develop while the Panthers decide what to do with Hardy (on a franchise tag, off-field concerns) and Johnson (signed but has durability concerns. Realistically, his earliest chance at fantasy worthy production is 2015.
2014 Outlook: Free agent, DE3 upside if earns larger role
Dynasty Ceiling: High Floor DE2 with upside | ETA: 2015
DE Scott Crichton, Minnesota Vikings
Crichton profiled very well in college. He has a mature array of pass rush moves, plays with good leverage against the run, goes through the whistle and is more athletic and powerful than his measurables may suggest. He’ll start his career behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robison, who the Vikings heavily invested in over the past nine months. Mike Zimmer uses a liberal rotation on the line, but the chances of Crichton seeing more than 500 snaps are relatively poor.
2014 Outlook: Free agent, DE3 upside if wins major rotational duty
Dynasty ceiling: High Floor DE2 with upside | ETA: 2015
Others to Watch: DE Will Clarke (Cincinnati), DE Ra’shede Hageman (Atlanta), DE Chris Smith (Jacksonville), DT Will Sutton (Chicago), DE Taylor Hart (Philadelphia), DT Timmy Jernigan (Baltimore), DE Jackson Jeffcoat (Seattle)
Linebacker
Due to some questionable fits and unexpected roles, this is a strange group of prospects. C.J. Mosley is the only player whose talent and role fit the usual stereotype for a potential fantasy stud. Aside from Mosley, there are three rush linebackers who will play strong side linebacker in their team’s base defense, a severely undersized flow-and-chase weak side linebacker and two uncertain fits transitioning to 3-4 inside linebacker roles.
LB C.J. Mosley, Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy owners may be gunshy on Mosley. The last two Alabama inside linebackers (Rolando McClain and Dont’a Hightower) haven’t become fantasy assets and last year’s inside linebacker prospect in Baltimore (Arthur Brown) got off to such a slow start that the Ravens jumped at Mosley in the first round this year. Mosley has the instincts and playing speed to break both those negative trends, however. He’ll have a chance to earn an every-down role immediately, though his upside may be limited by Daryl Smith.
2014 Outlook: Upside LB3
Dynasty Ceiling: Elite LB | ETA: Early 2014
LB Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh Steelers
Shazier is extremely quick, but wasn’t consistently physical and showed questionable instincts at Ohio State. But the same could have been said about Lawrence Timmons years ago. Dick LeBeau won’t have the luxury of sitting Shazier for a season as he did Timmons, but if Shazier can be coached up quickly, there will be very good opportunity for the taking.
2014 Outlook: Upside LB3
Dynasty Ceiling: Elite LB1 Upside | ETA: Early 2014
LB Telvin Smith Sr, Jacksonville Jaguars
Smith, despite weighing less than 220 pounds at the combine, told teams he had no interest in playing safety. Though he’s no Lavonte David, he plays much more physical than his size suggests and is very capable in coverage. The fit in Jacksonville will work well and there should continue to be lots of opportunity for tackles. He’ll be expected to win an every-down role immediately.
2014 Outlook: Upside LB3
Dynasty Ceiling: Risk-Reward LB2 | ETA: Early 2014
LB Khalil Mack, Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are going to use Mack as a base outside linebacker, presumably on the strong side in a 4-3 front, and as a pass rusher in their subpackages. Mack did a little of everything in college, including moving out over the slot in a zone coverage, and should do well in a hybrid role. Von Miller showed that there’s good fantasy potential for an all-around talent used in this way. Mack could be the next in this burgeoning trend.
2014 Outlook: Big Play LB2 / LB3 with variance
Dynasty Ceiling: Big Play LB1 / LB2+ | ETA: Early 2014
LB JaDeveon Clowney, Houston Texans
Houston likely never wavered from Clowney as their top overall prospect. That meant fantasy owners who held out hope that Clowney would fall to Jacksonville (or that another 4-3 team would trade up for him) and be classified as a defensive end were left disappointed. Clowney has the skill set to succeed as a standup rusher, but he’s not – yet – as versatile as Mack. His tackle numbers are likely to be limited, leaving his fantasy upside entirely in the hands of his pass rushing numbers. His pass rush ability and pairing with J.J. Watt gives him the necessary upside.
2014 Outlook: Big Play LB2 Upside
Dynasty Ceiling: Big Play LB1 | ETA: Early 2014
LB Christian Kirksey, Cleveland Browns
Kirksey flew under the radar during the pre-draft process. He didn’t stand out – good or bad – at the Senior Bowl or at the combine. Some argued that he wasn’t the best draft prospect among his linebacker group at Iowa. But Mike Pettine tabbed him as one of the earlier off line of scrimmage linebackers to come off the board. That’s a strong endorsement from a strong defensive coordinator. With only Craig Robertson standing in his way for significant playing time, Kirksey could have an immediate fantasy impact.
2014 Outlook: Upside LB3 w/ low floor
Dynasty Ceiling: Risk-reward LB2 | ETA: Early-Mid 2014
LB Kyle Van Noy, Detroit Lions
Van Noy, like Mack, will be used as a base 4-3 outside linebacker, though it’s possible that the Lions could give him a look on the weak side. Van Noy should also get a look as a nickel pass rusher. If those roles hold, Van Noy will have rare 70 solo, 10 sack upside playing alongside a back seven without rangy defenders and a front four with other stud pass rushers that should prevent him from being double teamed.
2014 Outlook: LB2 upside w/ questionable floor
Dynasty Ceiling: Risk-Reward LB2 | ETA: Early-Mid 2014
LB Anthony Barr, Minnesota Vikings
Barr has one of the better first steps in this class but he was drafted into an unexpected role. The Vikings plan to use him as a base strongside linebacker and nickel rusher. Barr’s athleticism is good enough to succeed in that role, but he’ll likely have some growing pains and inconsistency in both roles.
2014 Outlook: Matchup LB3
Dynasty Ceiling: Risk-Reward LB2 | ETA: Early-Mid 2014
LB Chris Borland, San Francisco 49ers
The Niners may have stolen Borland in the middle rounds, assuming other teams passed on him due to concerns about the stability of his shoulders. Borland showed, on tape and at the Senior Bowl, that he can be an instinctive, fundamental, every-down linebacker. With NaVorro Bowman possibly out for the entire 2014 season recovering from a late 2013 ACL tear, Borland could be an every-down player immediately.
2014 Outlook: Upside LB3 if starter
Dynasty Ceiling: High Floor LB2 pending depth chart
Others to Watch: Marcus Smith II (Philadelphia), Preston Brown (Buffalo), Anthony Hitchens (Dallas), Jeremiah Attaochu (San Diego), Lamin Barrow (Denver), Khairi Fortt (New Orleans), Avery Williamson (Tennessee), Kareem Martin (Arizona), Dee Ford (Kansas City), Kevin Pierre-Louis (Seattle)
Cornerback
It is always worth looking hard at rookie cornerbacks. Those that start, particularly if they start opposite an established cover corner, will be tested often and get great opportunity to put up very strong tackle numbers. There’s a long list of prospects to watch this year, though not many are currently projected to start on opening weekend.
CB Jason Verrett, San Diego Chargers
Verrett didn’t compare favorably to the rest of this draft class in height. No cornerback in this draft class was more physical on film, however, as Verrett reminds many of Antoine Winfield. He’ll get a shot to start immediately in San Diego and has everything fantasy owners are looking for in a corner. He should hold value right away.
2014 Outlook: CB2 with upside
Dynasty Ceiling: CB1 | ETA: Early 2014
CB Justin Gilbert, Cleveland Browns
Scouts differed on Gilbert’s upside, but the Browns traded up to get him in the early first round. An aggressive, ball-hawking talent, Gilbert could start immediately opposite Joe Haden. That’s a perfect setup for “rookie corner” fantasy value.
2014 Outlook: CB2 with upside
Dynasty Ceiling: CB1 | ETA: Early-Mid 2014
CB Kyle Fuller, Chicago Bears
Fuller fits the mix of zone and man coverage Chicago uses perfectly. For now, however, he’s stuck behind Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings in the base defense. Tillman will eventually move on or (finally) agree to move to safety. When that happens, Fuller should become a valuable fantasy performer.
2014 Outlook: Free agent w/ upside
Dynasty Ceiling: CB1 | ETA: Mid 2014 – Early 2015
Others to Watch: Darqueze Dennard (Cincinnati), Stanley Jean-Baptiste (New Orleans), Bradley Roby (Denver)
Safety
SS Calvin Pryor, New York Jets
Pryor is a big, physical safety who can hold his own in coverage. He’s a great fit for Rex Ryan, who likes to play a safety in the box to provide run support and bring a safety off the edge on overload blitzes. He should start immediately, with Dawan Landry sliding over to play deep coverage.
2014 Outlook: Every-Week DB2
Dynasty Ceiling: Elite S | ETA: Early 2014
SS Deone Bucannon, Arizona
Bucannon had supporters throughout the draft community, but it was still a surprise to see him crack the first round. With Daryl Washington suspended for the entire 2014 season and Tyrann Mathieu no lock to start the season on the active roster, Bucannon could see tons of tackle opportunity immediately. His physical style against the run and solid coverage ability puts him with Pryor as a rookie safety worth rostering immediately.
2014 Outlook: Every-Week DB2 Upside
Dynasty Ceiling: Elite S Upside | ETA: Early 2014
FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Green Bay
Clinton-Dix has the skill set to be an elite fantasy option, but his role in Green Bay could limit him. The Packers haven’t said formally how they’ll use him, but the early expectation is that Morgan Burnett is likely to see more snaps near the box than Clinton-Dix. If that’s the case, Clinton-Dix will be a high variance DB play. Earl Thomas and Jairus Byrd and others have been successful in similar roles, but it’s not a sure thing.
2014 Outlook: Matchup Cloud DB
Dynasty Ceiling: Every-Week DB2+ Upside | ETA: Early 2014
Others to Watch: Brock Vereen (Chicago), Lamarcus Joyner (St. Louis), Jimmie Ward (San Francisco), Terrence Brooks (Baltimore)
