WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it's hard to see context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's important to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.
(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.)
THIS IS THE POST-DRAFT UPDATE (MID-MAY)
The draft has passed and OTAs are getting underway. Both events give us our first indications of what coaches and coordinators think of their talent and depth charts. We've also seen the first iteration of changes to positional classifications at MFL. There's some inertia in those first movements, but not all of them should be considered set in stone.
I've added a new column to the tables to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance.
TIER 1 | ELITE LB1
Barring some positive signs in the very deep tier jumper category below, this won't be a season to slough this tier and look for safe value later. You'll need at least one of this tier on your roster this year to avoid what could be a frustrating season of chasing matchups and worrying over snap counts for the players in the middle ranks. There were ten players were listed here last week. Two have been deleted due to injury (Sean Lee) and suspension (Daryl Washington). Though the four backers in the 1A tier aren't far behind this group, make sure you don't get left behind this year. Grab at least one of the Tier 1 talents.
| Luke Kuechly | <> | May not finish at the LB1 overall, but arguably still safest target on your draft board |
| Lavonte David | <> | New scheme is perfect fit, but not much room to improve on last year's solos and big plays |
| Vontaze Burfict | <> | Depth chart in Cincinnati is still Burfict and bunch of role players, stat crew turned positive |
| Paul Posluszny | <> | Though not elite talent, opportunity and surrounding cast make him near lock for 100 solos |
| Patrick Willis | <> | Still a stud, Bowman to miss at least 1/2 season, could be #1 overall fantasy LB again |
| Daryl Washington | vvvv | Suspended indefinitely, to miss all of 2014 season |
| Sean Lee | vvvv | Torn ACL during OTAs will likely cost him all of 2014 season |
| Jerod Mayo | ^^^^ | Moving him from the 1A tier, favorable home stat crew, marginal supporting cast |
| Derrick Johnson | <> | Steady, capable of big plays every week, KC still hasn't paired him with another talented ILB |
| Karlos Dansby | <> | Huge season last year, momentum should follow him to Cleveland, Pettine scheme favorable |
TIER 1A | ELITE LB1 UPSIDE
Alonso and Worrilow (among a few others to follow) are hot names, but I'm wary of elevating them to elite status yet. Elite stats don't always come from elite talent and there are reasons for concern for many of last year's breakout fantasy linebackers.
| Kiko Alonso | <> | Don't overdraft ~ move to OLB not concern, but snaps, rush attempts faced, assist count will drop |
| James Laurinaitis | <> | Gregg Williams at DC could bump big play stats, presence of Ogletree will continue to limit ceiling |
| Paul Worrilow | <> | May deserve elite ranking but play didn't match numbers last year, ATL likely moving to 3-4 |
| Bobby Wagner | <> | Home stat crew depresses solo tackle numbers, strong defense limits tackle opportunity |
TIER 2A | RISK-REWARD LB2
Here's why you'll want to attack the elite tiers this year. The floor of this group is riskier than usual. Some will establish themselves as stronger options than others during preseason games, but -- for now -- this isn't a tier that screams value.
| Alec Ogletree | <> | Instincts questionable, but athleticism more than made up for it statistically last year |
| Lawrence Timmons | <> | High ceiling earns him slot here rather than High Floor LB2 tier, narrowly misses Tier 1A |
| Brian Cushing | <> | Fragile but enters offseason healthy, little competition for tackles, has big play value |
| Danny Trevathan | <> | Could be lone every-down LB in Denver, productive without Woodyard last year |
| Wesley Woodyard | <> | Horton pursued him in free agency, local writers feel he's locked in at WILB |
| D'Qwell Jackson | <> | Assist-happy stat crew hurts solo counts, Freeman will compete for tackles |
TIER 2B | HIGH FLOOR LB2
This group is riskier than usual, too. Generally, I use this tier to list players I'd be comfortable using as my LB2 every week in a pinch and would be very happy running out as an every-week LB3 starter in balanced scoring systems. Each of these players put up solid numbers and will be in similar situations this year. But there's an argument that every player on this list will struggle to reach last year's numbers or will have more weekly variance than expected.
| Daryl Smith | <> | Goofy stat line last year (57-66, 5 sacks, 18 PD), hard to project elite ceiling |
| Perry Riley | <> | Could slot into risk-reward tier, but not sure has high ceiling despite lack of talent around him |
| DeMeco Ryans | <> | Quietly top ten fantasy option with strong solo tackle and peripherals last season |
| Stephen Tulloch | <> | Scheme independent fantasy option, should be dependable every-week starter again |
| Chad Greenway | <> | Seeing some time at MLB in OTAs and Zimmer scheme a positive, but 90 solos may be tough ask |
| Curtis Lofton | <> | Steady production last year, should remain every-down backer with consistent opportunity |
| Thomas Davis | <> | Stellar talent, upside blunted due to Kuechly's fundamental play between the tackles |
| Jerrell Freeman | <> | May be underrated here, but stiffer competition for tackles this year, stat crew still an issue |
| Nick Roach | <> | Expected more solos last year, solid big play value, ceiling is questionable |
| Jon Beason | <> | Level of play has dropped, but likely to get enough opportunity to approach 85 solos |
TIER 2C | RUSH / BIG PLAY LB2
I wish this tier was a little deeper, because I'd advocate looking here if you aren't excited about the non-rush prospects. If you're going to use a high variance option in balanced scoring systems, you may as well go all or nothing.
| Terrell Suggs | <> | Wasn't limited by Achilles last year, just keeps putting up 50-10 seasons |
| Justin Houston | <> | Likely would have finished in top ten in balanced leagues last year if it weren't for elbow dislocation |
| Von Miller | <> | Will drop out of this tier if he's not ready for opening weekend |
| Robert Mathis | <> | Suspended for first four games, still top tier big play threat |
| Khalil Mack | ^^^^ | Will be used in Von Miller like base SLB / nickel edge rusher role, capable of 60+ and 10 sacks |
TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3
I'd like this group better were I convinced of an elite ceiling for Te'o or Minter and Kendricks had shown more consistency to date. I think this tier will see the most turnover -- players moving up, players moving out, players moving in from the watch list -- than any other in the coming weeks.
| NaVorro Bowman | <> | Likely to start season on PUP, tough to target as more than your LB4 |
| Telvin Smith Sr | ^^^^ | Perfect fit in Jacksonville, numbers will be strong if he can hold up physically |
| C.J. Mosley | ^^^^ | Assumes he'll start and play every down, which is not assured yet |
| Mychal Kendricks | <> | Ryans' rebound limited his numbers last year, has upside but ceiling keeps him in LB3 tiers |
| Ryan Shazier | ^^^^ | Warming to his fit in 3-4, already working with starters in OTAs |
| Manti Te'o | <> | Should get chance to play in nickel this year, ceiling still questionable |
| Brad Jones | ^^^^ | Packers didn't add ILB in draft, value dependent on subpackage role |
| Sean Weatherspoon | <> | Range dropped considerably last year, had issues w/ tackling, may be better as 3-4 SILB |
| Mason Foster | <> | New coaching staff could see him as more than a base run defender -- or less |
| Kevin Minter | <> | Unproven, but will have big opportunity with Washington suspended |
| Christian Kirksey | ^^^^ | Fit questionable, but Pettine sees upside, could be every-down immediately |
TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3
If you decide you'd rather not mess with risky players from the middle tiers, the top half of this tier are solid LB3s you can rely on if you heavily target the elite DE and safety tiers instead.
| Donald Butler | <> | Inconsistent and with durability concerns, but high floor option when he's healthy |
| David Harris | <> | Strong between the tackles, not rangy enough to be elite fantasy option |
| Lance Briggs | <> | Off to good start last season, questionable surrounding cast could boost numbers |
| DeAndre Levy | <> | Unlikely to repeat last year's tackle numbers, change in scheme won't boost stats |
| Kevin Burnett | <> | Quietly strong year, but competition for tackles increases with new DL, Mack, Branch |
| A.J. Hawk | <> | Just enough production to roster as bye week / injury replacement |
MATCHUP RUSH LB
There are some intriguing names here and lots of suitable flyers for those in big play heavy scoring systems. Orakpo, in particular, might move into the LB2 tier if I can convince myself that his ceiling is easily reachable.
| Aldon Smith | <> | Would be near top of Rush LB2 tier but suspension coming |
| Tamba Hali | <> | Always lock for 40-10 floor, solid LB2 in big play systems |
| Barkevious Mingo | <> | Either dominant or dominated last year, development will skew ratio toward dominant soon |
| Clay Matthews | <> | Not enough tackles to rank higher, durability concern |
| Junior Galette | <> | Needs work against run to be every-week option, pass rush was there in full time duty |
| Elvis Dumervil | <> | Big pass rush numbers, non-existent tackle stats due to role in scheme |
| Brian Orakpo | <> | Rumors of more aggressive rush scheme, on franchise tag, set up for big year |
| Jadeveon Clowney | ^^^^ | Great situation opposite Watt, tackle stats are the big unknown |
| Melvin Ingram III | <> | Talented enough to be next Robert Mathis, injuries slowed development to date |
| Ryan Kerrigan | <> | Probably underrating him here, high floor with questionable ceiling |
| Quinton Coples | <> | Better against run than expected, pass rush upside worrisome |
| Whitney Mercilus | <> | Started out strong, slowed after teams adjusted, upside opposite Watt/Clowney |
| John Abraham | <> | Pressure numbers are there, boom-bust weekly option |
REDRAFT WATCH LIST
Moreso than ever, the league is trending toward platoons and rotations, limiting the tackle upside of many once-viable schemes and roles. None of these players are valuable enough to roster as potential starters. I had hoped the draft would provide some answers but it's only muddied the waters. I've added 16 names to this list and removed zero since the last update. With luck, the preseason will put at least a few into fantasy friendly situations. The last few names here are listed above the dynasty stash list only because they may have an easier road to playing time. They are rosterable in only the deepest leagues for now.
The early preseason depth chart concerns on Zach Brown and Audie Cole may end up as much ado about nothing. But they don't inspire confidence either.
| Zach Brown | vvvv | Concerning that Titans' beat writers weren't ready to confirm Brown as WILB after minicamp |
| Larry Foote | ^^^^ | In prime situation with Washington suspended unless Arizona brings in competition |
| Audie Cole | vvvv | Jasper Brinkley running ahead of Cole in first offseason workouts |
| Michael Wilhoite | ^^^^ | Running with first team in OTAs, filled in well for Niners last year |
| Brooks Reed | ^^^^ | Addition of Clowney allows Reed to move inside full time |
| Keenan Robinson | ^^^^ | Working with first team in OTAs, could be major sleeper if healthy |
| Anthony Hitchens | ^^^^ | Cowboys listed him as 2nd team MLB before Lee injury, must monitor |
| D.J. Williams | <> | Bears may start him at MLB, outside chance at an every-down role |
| Dannell Ellerbe | <> | Brutal in run defense last year, Dolphins looking at Misi inside |
| Jamie Collins | <> | Versatile enough to play inside and outside, will move up when role is assured |
| Devonte Holloman | ^^^^ | Struggled last season, but may be best option to play MLB with Lee injured |
| Dont'a Hightower | ^^^^ | Deserves observation but Mayo and Collins better values for now |
| Demario Davis | <> | Disappointing stats and hasn't fully developed, but will get snaps again this year |
| Koa Misi | ^^^^ | Dolphins working him at MLB in OTAs, unlikely to play every down |
| Arthur Brown | vvvv | Drafting Mosley in first round opposite of vote of confidence for Brown |
| Kyle Van Noy | ^^^^ | Could be base defensive Will and nickel pass rusher on stud line |
| Anthony Barr | ^^^^ | Another base 4-3 OLB / subpackage situational rusher prospect with upside |
| Bruce Carter | vvvv | Called out by Marinelli in May, starting job not assured |
| Jelani Jenkins | <> | Arguably the strongest WLB option on the depth chart, outside chance starting job |
| Corey Lemonier | <> | At minimum, to see high leverage rotational role, run defense will determine fantasy value |
| Vincent Rey | <> | Longshot, team seems to prefer Maualuga, still worth monitoring |
| Brandon Spikes | <> | One year MLB rental, favorable stat crew, durability and every-down questions |
| Nate Irving | <> | Not likely to play in subpackages, now competition from Barrow |
| Lamin Barrow | ^^^^ | Questionable fit as MLB, but Elway says he'll compete to play immediately |
| Jon Bostic | <> | High speed score does not a MLB make, role and snap count questionable |
| LaRoy Reynolds | <> | Door was open for every-down OLB role until Jaguars drafted Telvin Smith Sr |
| Sio Moore | <> | Unlikely to find much playing time with addition of Khalil Mack |
| Chris Borland | ^^^^ | Behind Wilhoite for now, but could move into starting lineup with big offseason |
| Jasper Brinkley | ^^^^ | Unlikely that he'll stick at MLB or play every down, but worth monitoring |
DYNASTY STASH
Players listed here are either young vets buried on the depth chart or recently drafted prospects with some long term potential. Or they are named Brandon Graham. If you thought I'd be taking Graham off this list, know that it will now never happen after Graham favorited my "Free Brandon Graham!!" tweet during the draft last month.
| Marcus Smith II | ^^^^ | Could move into Matchup Rush LB tier with good offseason |
| Jerry Attaochu | ^^^^ | Needs development, but Chargers could have nice young pass rush combo in time |
| Khairi Fortt | ^^^^ | Intriguing long term ILB option behind Hawthorne, quick and powerful and every-down capable |
| Kevin Pierre-Louis | ^^^^ | Compared favorably to Telvin Smith Sr, stuck on depth chart for now |
| Michael Mauti | <> | May still be in MLB mix, Vikings clearly not ready to give job to Cole |
| Brandon Graham | <> | FBG!! = Free Brandon Graham!! |
| Avery Williamson | ^^^^ | Fifth round selection, but worth watching given lack of clarity in TEN depth chart |
| Preston Brown | ^^^^ | Possible long term base only MLB answer in Buffalo |
| Christian Jones | ^^^^ | Fell in draft due to off-field concern, talented member of crowded depth chart |
| Dee Ford | ^^^^ | Stuck behind Houston and Hali, may follow Mingo development curve |
| Jarvis Jones | <> | Did not have immediate impact but has chance to show development this year |
| Trent Murphy | ^^^^ | Not sure he's more than a solid college player, won't have much opportunity yet |
| Jordan Tripp | ^^^^ | Longshot, but who knows what Miami is thinking given their recent LB decisions |
| Kevin Reddick | vvvv | Fortt looks like a much better fit than Reddick for now |
| Ty Powell | vvvv | Has to compete with rookie Brown, was questionable fit at MLB anyway |
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.
