NOTE: This column is a living document and will be updated throughout the morning. Major changes to the content will be in red. Check back often for additions as gameday inactives are announced and lineup / depth chart changes are reported. I'll also be retweeting those reports with quick bits of analysis, so make sure you're following me at (@JeneBramel) and checking my timeline on Twitter on Sunday mornings.
In the immortal words of Carl the Greenskeeper, "I guess the kidding around is pretty much over."
The Cowboys and Falcons are arguably faced with the two most critical injury decisions to date this season. How they choose to approach the usage of DeMarco Murray and Julio Jones will have a major impact on the outcome of their seasons -- and, by proxy, the fantasy seasons of those who have been riding Murray and Jones all season long.
My goal this morning is to frame the situation as well I can so that you can make an informed decision. And I'll make a recommendation at the end of the Murray and Jones blurbs as always.
[SPOILER ALERT: As of 700 AM ET, I recommend avoiding Jones and using Murray in lineups today.]
But you should do what your gut tells you to do. If you feel you have another high floor option and don't want to fuss over Murray's usage, take Murray out of your lineup. If you feel you simply cannot sit Jones if he's on the active roster today, put Jones in your lineup. As Sigmund Bloom so often says this time of year, "You've managed your fantasy team well enough to still be playing, you should continue to trust your own instincts."
demarco murray | hand | questionable
On Monday, I said I'd remain pessimistic on Murray throughout the week. I thought it was unlikely he'd play just six days after surgery for a broken hand. But the tide began turning for me on Wednesday when it was reported surgeons used eight screws to fix Murray's metacarpal. That seemed like an awful lot of hardware for a bone in the hand, which I jokingly dismissed as a sign Murray had superhuman sized hands.
As I wrote on Wednesday evening, friend and orthopedic surgeon Jeff Budoff, who specializes in upper extremity injuries, tweeted the following to me:
@JeneBramel mid shaft fx. 2x required number of screws. Solid fixation. They're gonna roll the dice with his health and play him.
— JeffBudoff (@JeffBudoff) December 18, 2014
Murray and the medical staff chose to double the number of hardware necessary to fix this injury. That was a clear sign they were going to give Muray every chance to play this week. Fast forward through his participation in team drills on Thursday and a full walkthrough on Saturday and there's every indication Murray is comfortable enough in his splint to play today.
However, there will still be pain and swelling that could limit Murray's effectivness. There's still a splint that will affect how Murray carries the ball, catches the ball, and pass protects.
So, while Murray is almost assuredly going to be active this afternoon, the situation is still a bit murky.
Here's the Choose Your Murray Adventure you're facing today:
Scenario 1: Murray is a surprise inactive as the Cowboys decide that using Murray may not be so smart today after all.
Scenario 2: Murray is active but used only if Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar are completely ineffective or hurt.
Scenario 3: Murray is active and heavily rotated with Joseph Randle. Murray sees fewer base offensive reps than usual and is not used in any passing situations due to concerns about his ability to catch passes and pass protect effectively.
Scenario 4: Murray gets all of his usual reps, but plays very sparingly on passing downs.
Scenario 5: Murray sees his usual workload and isn't taken off the field in any package.
While I reserve the right to adjust my thinking on this as further news breaks this morning, I think we'll see Jason Garrett and DeMarco Murray plan for Scenario 3 with an outside chance of getting to Scenario 4 or 5. I expect Joseph Randle to play a larger than normal role on early downs and I don't think the Cowboys will use Murray in passing situations much.
Fantasy expectation: I think Murray will be active this afternoon. 12-16 touches is a reasonable, maybe even likely, expectation. But I believe 0-8 touches is a much more likely outcome than 18+ touches. The game script would have to be perfect (close game throughout, ineffective passing game, ineffective effort from Randle/Dunbar, Murray feels great) for Murray to see his pre-injury workload.
I would slot Murray in the bottom of the RB1 tiers. Slot him behind the elite backs among a group that includes C.J. Anderson and Joique Bell (both of whom I'd argue are better plays than Murray), as well as Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill, and Justin Forsett (all of whom I'd likely start Murray over).
915 ET: Confirmation of what's seemed inevitable since Wednesday...
#Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray is going to play today with a pad on his hand. That was clear from his 1st-team participation in walk-thru Sat.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 21, 2014
JULIO JONES | HIP | QUESTIONABLE
I began my Saturday afternoon preaching caution on Jones. But I wholly underestimated the reluctance to bench Jones I was nearly flooded with in return. Followers responded with a clear sentiment, "How can I possibly bench Jones if he's active?"
I get that sentiment. But it still surprised me.
I've heard little -- other than Mike Smith's throwaway optimism last week and early this week -- that would reassure me Jones is healthy enough to take see his usual workload and play to his usual effectiveness.
Much of the optimism seems to be based on a note from ESPN's Vaughn McClure on Friday, which I'm quoting from a Rotoworld blurb that quotes from ESPN Insider content:
From all the information I've gathered, Jones will definitely play against the Saints. And it's not as if the Falcons will have him on the field just as a decoy. They need Jones in this desperation game, so I suspect he will get plenty of opportunities.
McClure also tweeted this on Saturday afternoon:
I'm told Julio Jones took part in walkthrough today. Sounds like a postive sign.
— vaughn mcclure (@vxmcclure23) December 20, 2014
Officially, the Falcons have said Jones will be a game time decision since Wednesday afternoon. The Saturday walkthrough isn't an official practice and isn't included on the injury report. Jones hasn't participated in an official practice in two weeks. While Jones doesn't have to practice to be active and play today, the lack of practice doesn't inspire confidence that Jones is ready to "get plenty of opportunities."
I appreciate the argument that Julio is more likely to play in such a high stakes game. But the importance of the game has no affect on Jones' health and effectiveness.
Jones has a hip injury that's unlikely to have fully healed in two weeks. He may be healed enough to run, but there will still be pain. In particular, it's going to be difficult for Jones to do anything that pushes his upper leg toward his hip socket. Driving off the line of scrimmage against press coverage, sinking his hips at the moment of a break in his route, exploding out a cut, and gathering himself to leap and high point a ball are all going to be difficult for Jones.
He hasn't practiced in any capacity since the injury. I've seen no evidence he's been able to condition on the side, much less test his hip at speed. There's nothing in the practice reports or late week press conferences (which Jones wasn't present for, by the way) to convince me Jones is close to full strength today.
In fact, were it not for the confidently positive reports from McClure, I'd likely be arguing -- as I did last week -- that Jones was much closer to doubtful than probable.
So, I'm going to stick to my guns here and say Jones will be limited if active today.
Fantasy expectation: Jones has a much lower than usual floor today -- zero. I have no confidence he'll hit his pre-injury elite ceiling. And I think his median expectation is much closer to his zero floor than that pre-injury ceiling. I would start anyone with a 5-7 target, 4-6 catch expectation over Jones today. I would start anyone with a reasonable shot at 3-5 catch expectation and good red zone usage over Jones today.
But that's what I'd do with my roster. If you think Jones has a higher percentage chance of being effective than I do, you should start Jones. If you would be more disappointed to sit Jones and watch him have a solid day than starting him and watch him put up a zero, you should start Jones.
700 ET: Albert Breer reporting this morning Jones has done some running on the side this week.
Julio Jones ran on Wednesday and again yesterday before travel. Hip's in better shape than last week. Again, final check pregame.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) December 21, 2014
1030 ET: Chris Mortensen just threw a wrench into the Julio Jones discussion and expectation.
Yes, there's optimism forJulio Jones for Falcons vs. Saints but his specific injury has been a painful oblique strain. Tough injury.
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) December 21, 2014
An oblique strain is not a hip injury to me. It may be an easier injury to play though than a bruised labrum, but a muscle strain keeping a wide receiver from practice for two weeks is still a major concern. There's a risk of aggravation, there's a risk of ineffective play. I'm going to amend my expectation to say Jones has a higher floor than I believed earlier today and a better chance at hitting his ceiling. But Jones still carries lots of risk. Proceed with caution.
t.y. hilton | hamstring | questionable
I don't think Hilton will be active today. Though Chuck Pagano said Hilton's MRI was negative and expected to practice this week, it's clear the Colts are exercising more concern here. Hilton did not practice at all this week. Pagano said on his mid-week radio show the team was planning to rest players with nagging injuries. With the Colts in the playoffs, the incentive to risk Hilton this week is minimal.
Fantasy expectation: If Hilton is active, I don't believe he'll see his usual number of snaps. Avoid him today unless there are extremely positive pregame reports.
1000 ET: Update from Ian Rapoport:
TY Hilton is gonna try to play. Appears to be a longshot, but he’ll try RT @VinnyLopez: @RapSheet what about TY?
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 21, 2014
emmanuel sanders | illness | questionable
Sanders was sent home from the Denver practice facility due to illness on Saturday. The Broncos do not fly to Cincinnati until sometime today. I think it's likely Sanders will be on the team flight, but these flu-like illnesses can be rough. It's likely Sanders won't be at full strength on Monday night.
Fantasy expectation: You need to confirm Sanders made the trip to Cincinnati before leaving him in your starting lineup. Have a hedge available just in case. I think Sanders will be limited Monday night, but I wouldn't bench him unless you've got another option with top 10-15 upside.
eddie lacy | eye | probable
Lacy was told not to wear contact lenses until Saturday, but he and the team have no concern about him playing today. There's a slim chance he may have to wear goggles, but that shouldn't slow him down much, if at all.
Fantasy expectation; Use Lacy as you normally would.
deandre hopkins | ankle | questionable
Hopkins didn't practice this week and there seems to be little optimism that he'll play today. Add in the frustration he was showing with Tom Savage last week when the inexperienced quarterback read defenses differently than Hopkins did and the lack of preparation time with Case Keenum and there's not much to like about Hopkins' status today.
Fantasy expectation: I think Hopkins will be inactive today. If active, the risk of an aggravation and the possible lack of chemistry with Keenum would give Hopkins a much lower than usual expectation.
1130 ET: Hopkins is active today. Without practice, a new quarterback and a good Baltimore pass rush, consider him a boom-bust WR3.
cam newton | back | probable
Newton has made an impressive recovery from his back injury and will start today. The Panthers will likely take steps to limit the chance Newton is hit -- i.e. prioritize the running game, use max protection schemes, run fewer read option plays, use shorter pass drops. Each of those will limit Newton's statistical upside. There's also a chance Newton could leave the game early if hit or ineffective.
Fantasy expectation: Newton is healthy enough to play, but his upside is limited today.
Best of luck in your fantasy games this weekend. I'll be back on Monday morning to review all the Week 16 injuries in the Injury Rounds column. Follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking news and analysis during the games today.
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