WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it's hard to see context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's important to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.
(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.)
this is the post-draft update (Mid-may)
The draft has passed and OTAs are getting underway. Both events give us our first indications of what coaches and coordinators think of their talent and depth charts. We've also seen the first iteration of changes to positional classifications at MFL. There's some inertia in those first movements, but not all of them should be considered set in stone.
Nearly every edge rushing prospect was drafted to be used in a two point stance. There were only three players taken in the first half of the draft who are likely to remain classified as defensive lineman in the short term (next 1-3 years) -- DeMarcus Lawrence, Scott Crichton and Kony Ealy -- and Crichton and Ealy do not have clear paths to meaningful playing time. That means there (a) isn't much new blood in the post-draft tiers and (b) isn't yet a lot of movement among the veterans from the pre-draft tiers.
I've added a new column to the tables to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance.
tier 1 | ELITE DL1
This tier includes a group of defensive ends that are high ceiling, high floor options in any league setup. There may be players in the next tier you're comfortable elevating, but you'll have trouble convincing yourself that a player from this group is less than a strong DL1.
| J.J. Watt | <> | Consecutive seasons of 65+ solos, near lock to "regress" to mid double digit sacks |
| Robert Quinn | <> | Outscored Watt in balanced scoring systems in 2013, breakout season no fluke |
| Chandler Jones | <> | Elite fantasy talent still has room to improve as pass rusher, home stat crew inflates assist count |
| Greg Hardy | <> | Release the Kraken!! Three straight seasons near 40 solos, elite pass rusher |
tier 2 | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE
This is the beauty of the tier approach. I have the higher floor players listed nearer the top here, but there's not much difference between the top of this group and the bottom.
| Cameron Wake | <> | Sack numbers didn't show it, but still close to dominant last year before MCL sprain slowed him |
| Rob Ninkovich | <> | Quietly a near lock for 40 solos and 7-8 sacks, NE stat crew helped with 49 assists last year |
| DeMarcus Ware | <> | Will see more pass rush chances in Denver, will move up if OTAs show neck/elbow healthy |
| Calais Campbell | <> | New coordinator didn't affect production last year, safe bet for 45-8 floor with 50-10 upside |
| Lamarr Houston | <> | Move to Chicago won't hurt tackle numbers much, pass rush opportunity should increase |
| Mario Williams | <> | Has DE classification, good fit as 9-technique in Schwartz scheme |
| Cameron Jordan | ^^^^ | Dominant 5-tech pass rusher, solo tackles should rebound, deserves consideration here |
| Michael Johnson | <> | Tough to slot, contract motivation now gone, how much Zimmer helped unknown |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | <> | Slotting him here is a hedge. If healthy, he's elite. If not, look out below. |
| Carlos Dunlap | <> | Frustratingly inconsistent without huge weeks that win fantasy matchups, concussion risk |
| Ezekiel Ansah | <> | Injuries limited development last year but could make Quinn / Jones type leap this year |
Tier 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.
| Olivier Vernon | <> | Hard not to slot him here (or higher) after 2014's 46-11.5 effort, but buyer beware |
| Muhammad Wilkerson | <> | Arguably should slot alongside Campbell and Jordan as all around 3-4 monster |
| Charles Johnson | <> | Still stud pass rusher, but three years of Freeney-esque poor solos and durability are concerns |
| Everson Griffen | <> | If you like to chase upside, Griffen's per-snap profile suggests breakout coming |
| Julius Peppers | ^^^^ | Will play Elephant role, Rotoworld slotted at DE - may not stick but best case scenario for value |
| Jared Allen | <> | Once uber-elite solo tackle numbers are long gone, but pass rush rate stats still strong |
| Justin Tuck | <> | Frustrated fantasy owners for years but mini-renaissance last year renews hope |
| Adrian Clayborn | <> | Another year removed from ACL surgery, strong scheme and surrounding cast |
Tier 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Willie Young and Wallace Gilberry are particularly attractive and will move up if OTA reports suggest they will get a heavy rotational role and can be projected to see 700-800 snaps.
| Willie Young | <> | Would rank higher had Bears not added Allen, irregular snap count may not support consistency |
| Wallace Gilberry | <> | Did well in larger role last year, but snap count depends on development of Margus Hunt |
| Cliff Avril | <> | Great scheme, will see more snaps this year, tackle numbers low and inconsistent |
| Chris Long | <> | Could put up 3-4 sacks in any week, but long stretches of fantasy purgatory with them |
| Lamarr Woodley | <> | Very low floor, but if hamstrings stay healthy his snap count will be hard to ignore |
| Brian Robison | <> | Will put up good numbers but not talented enough to produce elite all-around stats |
| Chris Clemons | <> | Arguably best pass rusher in Jacksonville, snap count and health not assured |
| Osi Umenyiora | vvvv | Still classifed at DE but Falcons very likely to switch to 3-4 base, be wary for now |
Tier 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows.
| Sheldon Richardson | <> | Won't generate pass rush stats needed for elite tier status, strong target if you like high floor depth |
| Michael Bennett | <> | More pass rush potential than Richardson, but not consistent enough to slot in an elite tier |
| Cameron Heyward | ^^^^ | Still developing, flashed consistency in second half of 2013 after returning from injury |
Tier 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE
This group looks weaker than recent years. But we're now over 30 players deep in the tier list -- even if Umenyiora and Peppers are reclassified to outside linebacker as I expect. If you're drafting today, especially in dynasty leagues, ignore this group in favor of the tier jumper and dynasty watch lists to follow.
| George Selvie | <> | Good scheme fit, could see 800 snaps, not elite talent, durability risk |
| Jurrell Casey | <> | Officially re-classifed to DE, talented enough to be lesser version of Calais Campbell |
| Mathias Kiwanuka | <> | Talented and underrated but not elite, snap count depends on development of Damontre Moore |
| Fletcher Cox | <> | Still waiting for breakout but tools and snap count are there |
| Justin Smith | <> | Doesn't put up elite combination of sacks / solos anymore, SF depth improved, rotation likely |
| Arthur Jones | <> | Better football player than stat compiler, not an every-week option |
| Haloti Ngata | <> | MFL re-classification to DE confirmed, durability questions hard to ignore |
| Jason Hatcher | <> | Could put up numbers as 5-technique, but this may be an optimistic ceiling |
| Mike Daniels | ^^^^ | Left out of first set of tiers, would have more value if classified as DT |
| Jeremy Mincey | <> | Opportunity for high snap count only reason he slots here, Lawrence could push him off tier list |
TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST
These players will move into a tier based on their performance in OTAs, minicamps and early training camp. If you've got roster space, consider this your pre-camp news sleeper list.
| Damontre Moore | <> | Still needs development, has DL2 upside if proves ready for role in base defense |
| Dion Jordan | <> | Under-utilized last year, rumored on trade block this winter, still elite all-around talent |
| Jerry Hughes | ^^^^ | Bills didn't draft edge rusher, quiet 9.5 sacks last year, will likely move up to DL2 tier soon |
| Devin Taylor | <> | May see 700 snaps with Young gone, offensive lines have to focus on his teammates |
| Margus Hunt | <> | Will see larger rotational role but 500 snaps likely max unless Dunlap or Gilberry injured |
| Demarcus Lawrence | ^^^^ | Drafted into open depth chart and strong fantasy scheme, but needs development, low ceiling |
| Derek Wolfe | <> | Whomever gets majority of snaps opposite Ware will be solid fantasy depth with matchup upside |
| Jared Crick | <> | Texans did not add DE in draft, could get 700 snaps with Watt and Clowney |
| Anthony Spencer | vvvv | Career may be over after microfracture knee surgery, likely to start on PUP |
DYNASTY STASH
This list was short before the draft. Unfortunately, the draft didn't add many prospects to the mix. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier available to them. Deep dynasty owners should be looking at any rookie from 2013 still on a roster (e.g. Cornelius Washington, Malliciah Goodman).
| Kareem Martin | ^^^^ | Significant risk of LB classification but currently DL, Arizona will look for best fit |
| Quanterus Smith | <> | Now nearly two years removed from ACL surgery, good depth chart opportunity |
| Kony Ealy | ^^^^ | Stuck behind Hardy and Johnson, but off-field and contract issues could give him chance in 2015 |
| Tank Carradine | <> | Up to 290 pounds, transitioning to 3-4 end, health and edge rush ability at higher weight are concerns |
| Scott Crichton | ^^^^ | Will develop behind Griffen and Robison, Zimmer not shy about rotating young players |
| Datone Jones | <> | Showed ability to handle 3-4 end role at UCLA, not yet convinced of viable fantasy ceiling |
| Chris Smith | ^^^^ | Great fit in Jacksonville, but may not be strong or quick enough to make it in NFL |
DT TARGETS
The top three names on this list -- Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers in DT-required leagues shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.
| Geno Atkins | <> | Concern relatively low but must prove explosiveness still there after ACL injury |
| Gerald McCoy | <> | Primo scheme, entering prime of career, overall DT1 finish possible |
| Ndamukong Suh | <> | Didn't finish in pocket often enough last year, improvement from Ansah could boost numbers |
| Kyle Williams | <> | Quietly productive and consistent through injury and scheme changes |
| Henry Melton | <> | Great fit with Marinelli and Tampa-2 undertackle role, injury concern |
| Nick Fairley | <> | Will become top tier fantasy DT if tackle numbers improve |
| Marcell Dareus | <> | If tackle counts remain high in Pettine system, should remain strong DT1 |
| Dontari Poe | <> | Sacks fell off cliff after Week 5 but pressure per snap and tackle counts did not |
| Antonio Smith | ^^^^ | Now slated for 3-technique role in Oakland, strong numbers if free agent pieces fit |
| Star Lotulelei | <> | Would be higher if pass rush potential was better but breakout potential here |
| Jay Ratliff | <> | Good scheme fit with Bears, boom-bust pick |
| Aaron Donald | ^^^^ | Stud interior pass rusher gets to play next to Robert Quinn and stellar STL line |
| Linval Joseph | <> | Zimmer gets most out of his tackle rotation, has 40-6+ upside |
| Sylvester Williams | <> | Improved as year progressed, may not be elite performer but upside makes him rosterable |
| Dominique Easley | ^^^^ | As disruptive as Donald, similar upside as part of strong line, injury concern |
| Michael Brockers | <> | Disappointing but talent and surrounding cast earn him benefit of doubt for now |
| Sharrif Floyd | <> | New scheme, Zimmer positive for his development, MIN didn't draft DT, could be dominant |
| Ra'Shede Hageman | ^^^^ | Classified as DT (for now), could be loophole to exploit if earns major role at DE in 3-4 |
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.
