Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb is entering his fourth year in the NFL and he is considered one of the league’s best young wide receivers playing for one of the best offenses in the NFL. After a second-year campaign that produced 80 catches and eight touchdowns, much was expected as from Cobb entering his third year. He started very strong, catching 25 passes through the first four games while totaling 325 yards and scoring two touchdowns. However, in week 5, Cobb broke his lower leg and missed 10+ games. He returned in week 17 against the Chicago Bears and caught two passes, scoring twice in the game. The Packers have an amazingly potent passing attack, led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers who is considered one of the best in the game. One of the things making the Packers passing attack so lethal is that the way they distribute the ball, using every weapon in their arsenal. Cobb is the primary weapon in that arsenal while Jordy Nelson, Jarrett Boykin and the rest are big players here but Cobb is the main attraction. Now having called Cobb the main attraction, the talent at the receiver position is very good here, and like last year when Cobb was out, a little shuffling is all it takes to reset the positions. The offense is a powerhouse, driven mainly by the quarterback, and while losing Cobb would hurt, the Packers can move Nelson, Boykin and others and while they might lose a little homerun hitting ability, they will remain one of the more potent passing teams in the NFL because of the prowess of their quarterback.
BUY
Jordy Nelson, WR — Nelson has been a fantasy star for a few years and he’s already being drafted as WR9 on current ADP charts. Nelson is a consistent route runner and there is chemistry with Rodgers. The Packers offense relies upon consistent route running and timing when Rodgers gets flushed from the pocket, and Nelson is already one of the main downfield targets. There would certainly be an uptick in targets for Nelson. In 2012 with Cobb on the field, Nelson was targeted an average of six times per game. In 2013 with Cobb missing 10+ games, Nelson saw eight targets per game. Nelson gets a slight uptick and goes from a low end No. 1 receiver to a mid-level No. 1 receiver.
Jarrett Boykin, WR — Boykin is not a playmaker like Cobb and is relatively limited as a vertical player like former Packers receiver James Jones, but his physicality gives him a dimension that some of the other Packers receivers lack. With Cobb out last year, and with Rodgers still in (weeks 6, 7 and 8), Boykin was targeted 22 times and he had 14 catches, accumulating 235 yards and a score. Boykin is currently being drafted as WR55 which makes him a depth player and a potential bye week replacement. I believe that he is already being under-drafted, but in the event of a Cobb injury, Boykin immediately becomes a receiver capable of big weeks who should get used as a high end No. 3.
HOLD
Aaron Rodgers, QB — Rodgers is one of the steadiest performing quarterbacks in the NFL, and while it is hard to argue that Peyton Manning has had giant years, it’s Aaron Rodgers who has really been the best fantasy option at quarterback for the past few years. One of Rodgers’ strengths is that his footwork is incredible and it allows him to always be a blink away from releasing the ball. He is extremely accurate, finding his receivers and throwing them open, which allows them to stay at full speed and not forcing them to slow down for the ball. Rodgers is a premier fantasy quarterback and that won’t change if Cobb goes down.
SELL
None. The Packers passing attack will remain reasonably solid and it should be business as usual.
ADD
DaVantae Adams, WR — Adams was drafted by the Packers in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft. Specifically, he was drafted to replace the downfield catching ability of James Jones who left in free agency to play in Oakland. Adams will have to earn Rodgers trust and he’ll have to prove that when real games begin. Adams comes into the NFL with a very strong set of skills. He has excellent hands, very good body control and is a very polished route runner with decent quickness. In the event of a Cobb injury, the Packers will need someone to step into their third wide receiver role, and he just might be up to that. Expect Adams to be a bye week replacement and a depth player with a Cobb injury.
Richard Rogers, TE — The Packers lost Jermichael Finley to injury and they are relying on a few young options to replace him. Rogers is fairly athletic and could surprise some when the season starts. The Packers are a smart organization and if Rogers is truly the replacement for Finley, then it means good things for Rogers. Rookies generally come along slowly, but Rogers steps into the perfect role for a “move” tight end, and more if Cobb is lost. One of the things that will happen is that the Packers will become less efficient and thus more dependent on moving the chains in a more traditional manner. In the event of a Cobb injury, Rogers would be a serviceable bye week type replacement.
DROP
None. The Packers passing attack will remain reasonably solid and it should be business as usual.
