Photo: Imagn Images

As fantasy football quarterbacks go, Carson Palmer isn’t exactly a big name these days. The 34-year-old Cardinals passer was considered a top pick once upon a time, in the halcyon days when he played with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh in Cincinnati. He led the league in fantasy scoring in his sophomore season, throwing for 32 touchdowns for the Bengals in 2005 before getting his knee shredded against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs.

Incidentally, Palmer led the league in fantasy scoring with 318.2 fantasy points. Peyton Manning scored 486.8 points last season, an example of how much of a passing league the NFL has become. That’s a 168.6-point differential, or approximately one EJ Manuel.

Those days are long gone for Palmer and fantasy owners everywhere, with retirement and the Oakland Raiders coming before his stint in the desert. He came back from his career-threatening injury to another strong season in 2006, scoring the fifth-most fantasy points on the season and nearly winning Comeback Player of the Year award in the process. His career would soon careen off a cliff after a lackluster 2007 and an elbow injury in 2008. He eventually retired after the world’s worst game of chicken with owner Mike Brown, and he is only playing today because Brown relented in his own obstinacy, fleecing the Raiders out of two first-round picks for his retired quarterback.

Palmer’s first season in hiOakland was predictably disastrous given he was thrown into the fire despite being out of the league for the previous 10 months. His 2012 campaign was far more promising, though, despite a compromised roster and a first-year head coach.

If his statistical trends are any indication, Palmer’s trek from retirement to fantasy relevance might finally come to fruition in 2014.  Palmer’s performance last season landed him with the 17th-most fantasy points on the year—a decent ranking, though clearly not in fantasy starter territory. Palmer did tie for 12th-most touchdowns thrown. His 22 interceptions were among the most in the league, however, and he is part of the old guard of immobile quarterbacks. 

He may not have blown away the fantasy realm over the past few seasons, but the second half of his 2013 season was encouraging going forward. He was 11th in fantasy scoring at quarterback through the final eight games of the season, though he had a leg up on the quarterbacks who had bye weeks in the second half of the season. More importantly, his 8.2 YPA was third and 65.3 completion percentage was eighth in the league in the at span.

The veteran does play in the treacherous NFC West, which featured two of the top five teams in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks—Seattle and San Francisco—and a third in the top 12, St. Louis. That shouldn’t be too dissuasive, though—strength of schedule is a myth, after all. The 49ers and Seahawks might still boast strong defenses, but that doesn’t mean Palmer won’t have quality outings. In fact, Palmer averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game against the NFC West last season while averaging just 17.8 PPG against the rest of the league.

All that to say, Palmer is going to need some help if he is indeed going to reach the summit of Mr. Relevance. Protection has been a sore spot for the Cardinals in recent years, and Palmer likely felt many sore spots after being pummeled last season. Arizona allowed 41 sacks on Palmer in 2013, eighth-most in the league. Injuries left the likes of Bradie Sowell—who has the pass-blocking ability of a saloon door—starting at left tackle. Sowell had the league’s worst pass blocking efficiency last season, allowing an eye-popping 59 total quarterback pressures on just 458 pass-blocking snaps.

Assuming health, Palmer can breathe a little easier knowing Jared Veldheer is in town to protect the blind side. Veldheer was his left tackle over in Oakland, and he brings his pass-blocking prowess to the Cardinals, a significant upgrade at left tackle that should make life easier for his quarterback. Former first-round pick Jonathan Cooper is coming back from a broken leg that ended his rookie season before it began, too, further solidifying the left side of that line.

Better pass protection should lead to better production if all else is equal.

One thing Palmer does already have is a great pair of wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and up-and-coming Michael Floyd. The latter blossomed into a legitimate threat last season, leading his team by topping 1,000 receiving yards in just his second year in the league. Floyd is primed to blow in 2014, and Palmer has noticed. Floyd’s emergence down the stretch last season seems to have spilled over to this year’s offseason, and Palmer has raved about his No. 2 receiver saying he has “high expectations” for the third-year man out of Notre Dame. Of course, Fitzgerald’s talent almost goes without saying, though injuries were a bit of a problem for him last season.

Palmer did lose a quality slot receiver when Andre Roberts signed with Washington. Roberts takes his 43 receptions, 471 yards and two touchdowns from a year ago with him, replaced by alligator-armed Ted Ginn Jr. and third-round rookie John Brown. Ginn did have a healthy average of 15.4 yards per reception last season, getting loose on a few deep passes and scoring five touchdowns overall. Palmer also gets a potential upgrade at tight end in rookie Troy Niklas, though incumbent starter Rob Housler has some potential we have yet to see tapped.

Positives

• The Cardinals have upgraded the left tackle position in a big way, meaning Palmer should see better protection and production as a result.
• Larry Fitzgerald is still among the best receivers in the game despite turning 31 before the season starts.
• Michael Floyd has blossomed into a fantastic running mate for Fitzgerald, and he is primed for a big year.
• Andre Ellington showed flashes of brilliance last year, putting up 5.5 yards per carry. He should become the primary back, and a good running game will keep opposing defenses honest. He is capable of putting up big numbers in the passing game to boot. 

Negatives

• Palmer is 34 years old and his last great season came when Jack and Locke were still on the island and subprime mortgages were all the rage.
• Better protection might not be a panacea for Palmer, who has had interception issues in recent years regardless of offensive line play.
• The Cardinals play against the 49ers and Seahawks twice.
• Palmer has never been a mobile quarterback, and he isn’t going to get you any fantasy points with his legs.

Projections

• 369 completions
• 575 attempts
• 4,425 yards
• 28 touchdowns
• 17 interceptions
• 20 carries
• 15 yards
• 2 lost fumbles
• 313.8 standard fantasy points

Those numbers would have been good for 11th in fantasy scoring last season, though that varies depending on the scoring settings.

Final Thoughts

He might be a good value, but there is no reason to go crazy drafting Palmer in the sixth round or anything. He is currently such a bargain that you can afford to wait until the wee hours of the draft, when everyone else has begun selecting defenses and backup tight ends. He is currently the 19th quarterback off the board on average and the 154th player overall according to consensus ADP. 

Where Palmer’s value truly lies is in best ball leagues, where you will be getting a starting quarterback with good upside on the cheap. Pairing Palmer with another late-round value like Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill allows you to focus on filling up other positions while not sacrificing solid scoring at quarterback on a week-to-week basis. In that same vein, Palmer is also a nice streaming base or quarterback-by-committee member.

Other Viewpoints

Worth remembering that Carson Palmer threw 570 passes last year and had only two top 12 scoring weeks.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) June 28, 2014

C.D. Carter of XN Sports thinks Palmer should be just fine against those stout defenses in the NFC West.

I’m encouraged by Palmer’s numbers here, as his 11 percent difference in fantasy production shows that he can be serviceable even in the fiery fantasy football hell mouth that is the NFC West. As the 24th quarterback off the board, Palmer is essentially free. I don’t think there’s any reason to deploy him against most of his NFC West competition though. The Seahawks, who allowed just two top-12 quarterback performances in 2013, help opposing quarterbacks to 8.6 schedule-adjusted points, while the Rams limited signal callers to 11.9 adjusted points per game.

AZ's fate will ultimately hinge on play of Carson Palmer. But the talent around him on offense and defense is pretty good and well-rounded.

— Chris Trapasso (@ChrisTrapasso) May 21, 2014

Matt Goodwin of numberFire thinks Carson Palmer might be a sleeper this season: 

Given his weapons, he should still be able to produce solid QB2 numbers for your fantasy team. There's still enough upside there to snag him, though his upside is more than likely capped given his recent play and the lack of true fantasy love Arians' offenses have provided quarterbacks.

So when you're considering who to add as a late-round quarterback, consider that, while Palmer may not be a full-size Snickers bar, you as a fantasy owner may be more than satisfied with what you are getting when you open up the wrapper.

The word is out: we love Carson Palmer.

— numberFire (@numberFire) July 3, 2014

Rotoviz’s Matt Freedman says odds aren’t great that Palmer will wind up in the top 12 of fantasy scorers at quarterback.

Historically, how often do QBs in their mid-30s who used to be multi-season fantasy starters but haven’t been for over half a decade return to bona fide weekly fantasy utility? Not that often.

Thinking that Carson Palmer can be a top-12 QB again is a little like thinking that the redhead you dated for three years in high school looks the same now and is still DTF. Maybe that’s the case—but the odds aren’t good: Too much water under that London Bridge.

But none of this is to say that Palmer isn’t highly undervalued. He is. It just might not be reasonable to expect him to show up to your high school reunion looking all hot and perky and ready to give you the #1 treatment you enjoyed in 2005.

All fantasy scoring based on My FFPC defaults.

Follow @AlexMiglio