This article takes a look at players from each of the positions in your starting lineup who have interesting matchups. Not all players covered are your classic sleepers who might outperform expectations. Some are nominal starters with tricky matchups or players who might be starters in smaller leagues, but deep sleepers in larger leagues. Realizing that leagues and roster sizes vary wildly; your mileage could vary, too.
QUARTERBACKS
Andy Dalton, Cin vs. Min
The Vikings have allowed the second most points to QBs on the year, they’re on the road and they’re down to the last two healthy corners on the roster. In their last three games, they’ve allowed a total of 1028 yards and 8 TDs to Nick Foles, Joe Flacco and Josh McCown. They’re out of the playoffs while Andy Dalton and the Bengals are scratching and clinging onto their AFC North lead with the Ravens and Steelers surging. Although his play dropped off in November, Dalton has performed reasonably well in his last two games against the Colts and Steelers, combining for 505 yards, 5 TDs, no INTs and 31 yards rushing with another score. He appears to be a safe QB1 play for championship week if you don’t have one of the top studs on your roster.
Alex Smith, KC vs. Ind
Case Keenum flopped against the Colts on Sunday at Lucas Oil Field, but that doesn’t mean that Alex Smith will do the same at home against a Colts defense that has given up the farm over the last two months to nearly every quarterback they faced outside of Keenum and Blaine Gabbert. Of course, Smith is blazing hot coming into this week’s game having thrown 9 TDs in his last three games and 14 TDs in his last five. Smith has topped 25 fantasy points in four of his last five games to earn your trust as a playoff QB1.
Kirk Cousins, Was vs. Dal
The Cowboys defense has been bad all season, but in the past couple of weeks they’re moving into historically bad territory allowing back-to-back 4 TDs games to Josh McCown and Matt Flynn for a total of 70 fantasy points. Robert Griffin III somehow didn’t manage to score a single touchdown when they met in Week 6, but he still came away with 19 fantasy points. In his first start of the season last week, Cousins threw for 381 yards, 3 TDs and 2 interceptions against a Falcons defense that is almost as bad as the Cowboys. Cousins amassed 29 fantasy points and he has a shot at 30+ this week, but since Washington is seemingly incapable of protecting either of their quarterbacks, Cousins does come with a tad more risk than either Dalton or Smith.
Jay Cutler, Chi at Phi
Excluding the Lions/Eagles blizzard game two weeks ago, the Eagles defense has allowed an average of 325 yards per game in their last five and 8 TDs over their last three. For the season, they’ve allowed the 6th most points to opposing quarterbacks and this week they face one of the most talented groups of skilled position players going in the league. Cutler has produced 23+ points in three of his last (full) four starts. He has nearly as much upside as any quarterback in the league this week, but he also averages over one turnover per start. If your league doesn’t take away points for interceptions/fumbles, then Cutler projects as a potential Top 5 fantasy option this week with the Bears in the driver’s seats for the NFL North title.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten at Jac
Although the Jaguars have improved in Gus Bradley’s first year as head coach, they remain one of the best matchups in the league for quarterbacks having allowed the third most points this year. In their last three games, they’ve allowed 25+ fantasy points in each game to the likes of EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden and Case Keenum/Matt Schaub. Back in Week 10, Fitzpatrick rung up 28.5 fantasy points in relief of Jake Locker as the two combined for 30.5 points against the Jaguars. Save for Keenum’s poor outing against them in week 12, quarterbacks have combined for 25+ fantasy points in their last six games against the Jaguars. On the flipside, Fitzpatrick is averaging just over24 points in his last four starts, including an impressive 402 yards, 4 TDs and 36 fantasy points against a good Cardinals defense on Sunday.
Joe Flacco, Bal at NE
In deeper leagues, you might look for Flacco against a Patriots defense that has been shredded in their last two games by Ryan Tannehill (321 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs for 27.5 points) and Jason Campbell (391 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs, 27 rush yards for 34.25 points). With Dennis Pitta back in the lineup, Marlon Brown and Jacoby Jones healthier and Ray Rice rounding back into shape, Flacco has a little more upside, but he remains a QB2 in all but deeper league formats even with the good matchup and the playoffs riding on a win.
Other deeper league options include Jason Campbell against the Jets and Ryan Tannehill on the road against Buffalo. Both games could end up being played in cold, wintery weather, though, so monitor the weather forecasts and plan accordingly.
RUNNING BACKS
With league championships on the line in 99% of leagues this week, please allow me totake a look outside of the normal realm of sleepers, at some of the RB2s with favorable matchups. Make sure you lean on any of these guys if you have them, unless you’re starting guys even higher up the food chain.
- Le'Veon Bell against Green Bay’s No. 25 run defense that has allowed the third most points allowed over last 4 weeks)
- Alfred Morris against a Cowboy defense that has allowed the most points to RBs; he ran for 81 yards and a TD the last time they met
- Ryan Mathews against a Raider defense allowing the sixth most points to RBs
- Rashad Jennings against a Chargerdefense allowing 4.7 YPC
- Giovani Bernardagainst a Vikings defense allowing the ninth most pointsand 7-55-0.2 per game receiving
- Fred Jackson at Miami’s No. 21 run defense that he produced 85 yards and a TD against in Week 7
Jordan Todman, Jac vs. Ten
It’s safe to say that Todman exceeded expectations in his first career NFL start on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills No. 25 ranked run defense. It was a good matchup and he took full advantage running for 109 yards and catching four passes for 44 yards for a 15 point day. Maurice Jones-Drew’s status for this week’s game is up in the air. He probably won’t practice much and the team might be content letting Todman carry the mail for another week. Jones-Drew will be a free agent and Todman could take on a bigger role in the team’s plans for next year with another strong outing against the Titans’ No. 23 run defense allowing the third most points to RBs. The Cardinals tandem of Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington gashed the Titans for 140 rushing yards, 2 TDs and 5 catches for 96 yards last week. The prior week, Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball ran for 77 and 78 yards with a TD apiece as both players yielded 15 fantasy points. Donald Brown produced 33 points in two games against the Titans. If Todman starts, he’s a quality RB2 with RB1 upside.
Dennis Johnson, Hou vs. Den
Ben Tate would be a solid RB2 this week if it weren’t for his heroics last week and impending free agency. Tate aggravated his four broken ribs while combining for 92 yards on Sunday. On Wednesday, Tate season came to end as he was placed on injured reserve.With Tate out, Johnson jumps into the RB2/flex range as an intriguing option against a Bronco defense allowing a TD per game and the 8th most fantasy points to RBs. In the Broncos last two games, Ryan Mathews ran for 127 yards and a TD against them while the Titans Chris Johnson and Shon Green combined for 92 yards on 21 carries for 3 TDs in the previous week.
Bobby Rainey, TB at Stl
The jig is up and the news is out on Bobby Rainey. In five starts, Rainey has two huge games against teams with poor run defenses (Atlanta and Buffalo) and three duds against teams with strong run defenses (Detroit, Carolina and San Francisco). The Rams are up next and they are neither. A middle of the road defense against the run, they’ve allowed the fifth most points to RBs. They’ve allowed 16 rushing TDs - 5th most in the league - along with 155 total yards per game to opposing backs. Rainey has some upside, but I see plenty of risk, particularly if the Rams jump to an early lead at home. Rainey’s touches take a direct hit in that scenario. He’ll probably score, though, making him a roll of the dice RB2/flex for 12 team leagues.
Montee Ball, Den at Hou
The Texans have the No. 24 ranked run defense, and in their last four games, they‘ve allowed the fifth most points. Trent Richardson showed signs of life on Sunday with 102 yards and a TD. Maurice Jones-Drew turned in 123 yards in Week 14 and 144 yards and a TD in Week 12 against them. Shane Vereen and LaGarrette Blount both topped 10 fantasy points and Rashad Jennings ran for 150 yards and a TD. The Broncos continue make Ball more of a factor in their offense, splitting carries with Knowshon Moreno almost equally in recent weeks. Ball was quiet against the Chargers last week, but he has finished in double digit points in three of the four games before that.
Trent Richardson, Ind at KC
Richardson could get the start this week and the bulk of the touches in the Colts backfield with Donald Brown questionable after leaving Sunday’s game with a stinger. Richardson is a bit like Ray Rice this year – 3 yards a pop, should catch a few passes and if he finds the end zone then he’s a viable RB2, otherwise, he’s a flex option. The matchup looks scary, but Montee Ball put together a pair of strong outings against the Chiefs. Rashad Jennings dropped 103 yards and 2 TDs on them Sunday. Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews combined for 31 fantasy points against them in Week 12. Don’t go crazy with Richardson, but if Brown is inactive he has some appeal.
Lamar Miller / Daniel Thomas, Mia at Buf
In the last five weeks, the Bills have allowed an average of 142 yards rushing and 1.3 TDs per game to opposing RBs. Neither player had a big game when they last faced the Dolphins in Week 7. They cancelled each other, combining for 105 yards. The Bills could be without DT Marcel Dareus, too, making their 26th ranked run defense even more vulnerable.
Danny Woodhead, SD vs. Oak
Ryan Mathews is running hot and he’ll continue to demand the bulk of the carries in the Chargers backfield as a result, but keep in mind that Woodhead caught 9 balls and combined for 71 yards and a touchdown the last time these two teams met.
Kendall Hunter, SF vs. Atl
The Falcons have the 29th ranked run defense and have allowed the most points to opposing RBs over the last five weeks. The 49ers could give Frank Gore some rest this week with an eye on preserving him for a strong playoff run. It’s a great matchup for this physical 49er running game against a Falcons defense that has been exploited all year to the tune of 4.6 YPC and 131 yards per game. In deeper leagues, Hunter might be worth a flyer as a flex.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Rod Streator, Oak at SD
Matt McGloin might be Rod Streator’s lucky charm. Over his last five games, Streator is averaging 8 targets, 5 catches and 84 yards per game with 2 TDs. This week he has a great matchup against a Charger defense that has allowed the 3rd most points to opposing receivers. Streator had success the last time they met, too. He produced 3-56-1 against them in Week 5 while Denarius Moore also went for 5-84-1 in the same game.
Marvin Jones, Cin vs. Min
As mentioned earlier, the Vikings secondary is running out of corners. Down the stretch they’ve been beaten badly by opposing receivers from DeSean Jackson’s 10-195-1 last week to Alshon Jeffery’s even more impressive 12-249-2 line three weeks ago. Other secondary receivers have turned in impressive outings against them in the last month as well – Marlon Brown 7-92-1, Jarrett Boykin 5-60-1 and James Jones 7-80-0. Needless to say, only the Eagles have allowed more points to opposing WRs. Jones has been a weekly boom or bust, but after a November swoon, he has turned in back to back double digit games with 3-60-1 and 5-48-1. Against the Vikings, he projects as a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Emmanuel Sanders, Pit vs.GB
The Packers have allowed the 8th most points to opposing WRs and a total of five touchdowns to them over their last three games. Sanders caught a touchdown in three of his last four games and Ben Roethlisberger is playing well and both teams have plenty of incentive with the playoffs looming.
Rueben Randle, NYG at Det
With Victor Cruz sidelined this week against a Lions secondary allowing the fourth most points to wide receivers Randle gets a bump in the rankings. The Lions did a solid job against the Ravens and they can be a tricky matchup at Ford Field, but Randle and Hakeem Nicks will get more playing time and more targets with Cruz out of the picture. Eli Manning and the Giants offense are struggling badly, making all of the Giants skilled players risky plays during championship week, but 17 of the 22 passing TDs allowed by the Lions went to receivers.
Michael Crabtree, SF vs. Atl
Crabtree might not be 100% but he is playing well enough to plug into your lineup as a WR3/flex option depending on your league size, especially against a Falcon defense allowing the 10th most points to WRs and 15 completions of 40 yards or longer (2nd most in the league). Crabtree caught his first touchdown of the season last week in his second game since being activated. Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss combined for 15 catches, 193 yards and 2 TDs against them on Sunday. Colin Kaepernick seems to have regained some of the swagger he showed during last year’s playoffs and Crabtree is one of his favorite targets.
Da’Rick Rogers, Ind at KC
The Chiefs have played the Broncos twice in the last five weeks, so if I said that they’ve allowed the most points to opposing receivers during that span it’s suddenly a less impressive statistic. But the Chiefs have also been beaten by other big, talented receivers in recent weeks like Andre Holmes (4-58-1), Keenan Allen (8-124-0), Josh Gordon (5-132-1) and DeAndre Hopkins (3-76-1). Rogers didn’t pan out last week and he’s definitely a boom/bust play, but unlike last week, the Colts probably won’t be coasting along with a 20 point lead like they did at home against the Texans. In Kansas City, they’ll face one of the top teams in the AFC that has the firepower to build a lead of their own and a leaky enough secondary to give Rogers another opportunity to earn his stripes and perhaps a starting job going into 2014.
Marlon Brown, Bal at NE
Like the Ravens passing attack, Marlon Brown is an inconsistent fantasy receiver from week to week, but he produced 5 games of 9 fantasy points or more as an undrafted rookie free agent with an impressive 6 TDs. He also has a nice matchup this week against a Patriots secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to WRs over the last six weeks. That Mike Wallace, Josh Gordon and Andre Johnson all recorded 100+ yard games in the last three weeks against them bodes quite well for Torrey Smith, but Brian Hartline (5-70-0), DeAndre Hopkins (2-77-0) and Brandon LaFell (7-59-1) all produced solid games against them as well.
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou vs. Den
If there is hope for Hopkins and the Texans receivers this week it comes by the name of Matt Schaub. With Case Keenum hurt, Schaub retakes the reins of the offense against a Bronco defense allowing the ninth most points to opposing receivers. The Broncos have given up a touchdown to an opposing receiver in five straight games. After a two week drought where he caught only one pass in each game, Hopkins is back on the WR4/flex radar with three straight games with 5+ targets and 50+ yards. He is still a risky play during championship week, but in deeper leagues he could still be a worthy option with his size, hands and ability to beat opponents deep.
Rishard Mathews, Mia at Buf
Mathews took over in the slot for the Dolphins when Brandon Gibson went down with a season-ending knee injury back in Week 8. When the Dolphins played the Bills in Week 7, it was Gibson who had the biggest impact catching 2 touchdowns for a box score of 5-40-2. Mathews picked up the slack quickly with a monstrous 11-120-2 game against the Bucs as they targeted him relentlessly with Darrelle Revis locking down Mike Wallace in coverage. Other slot receivers have been productive against the Bills since Gibson – Ace Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery both caught touchdowns against them. Mathews isn’t a great option in 10 or 12 team leagues, but in deeper leagues he has some appeal with a better-than-average chance of catching a touchdown.
Other deep league targets that could pay off in your quest for a league title include Justin Hunter (at Jac), Aldrick Robinson (vs. Dal) and, dare I say, Vincent Brown (vs. Oak) or Donnie Avery (vs. Ind). Brown had the best game of his season against the Raiders back in Week 5 with 8-117-0 and Avery has a chance to a good matchup against his former team at a time when they’ve proven to be vulnerable to big plays. Hunter was suspended last week, but he’s arguably the best big play threat on the Titans offense against a Jaguars defense allowing the third most points to receivers over the last five weeks. Robinson faces a historically bad Cowboy defense allowing the sixth most points to WRs. He’s also produced 8-166-0 over the last two weeks and 4-99-0 with Kirk Cousins behind center last Sunday.
TIGHT ENDS
Zach Miller, Sea vs. Ari
We’ve been saying it all year long and it has almost without fail come through on a weekly basis. You know the drill – start your tight end when they play the Cardinals. It worked for Miller back in Week 7 when he caught 5 balls for 40 yards and a TD, while Kellen Davis also caught a 1-yard TD. The Cardinals have allowed the most points to TEs all year long and nothing has changed. Miller looks like a low TE1 this week in normal leagues. Last week, Delanie Walker cashed in with 8-53-1.
Delanie Walker, Ten at Jac
Walker is coming off a strong game against the Cardinals to face the next worst team in the league at defending tight ends. Jacksonville is allowing an average of 6-68-0.6. Scott Chandler had a healthy 5-54-0 line against them on Sunday. Walker himself had 4-62-1 against them when they last met in Week 10. Walker has turned into a solid, low end TE1 for PPR league owners since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over at quarterback.
Dennis Pitta, Bal vs. NE
The Patriots defense has allowed four touchdowns in their last five games to tight ends. Pitta is definitely not 100% after returning from an early season hip injury, If Aqib Talib locks down on Torrey Smith, Pitta could gather a bunch of targets, but if Talib spends a fair amount of time covering Pitta like he did Charles Clay on Sunday, then it will be a different story. Pitta is equal parts upside and risk as a low-end TE1 gamble.
Ryan Griffin, Hou vs. Den
Garrett Graham was inactive on Sunday with a hamstring injury and he’s not a sure thing to play against Denver either. Owen Daniels looks like he’s still a week away, if he does return to play in an otherwise lost season, which leaves Ryan Griffin as the presumed starter for the Texans again this week. Griffin caught 6 passes against the Colts filling in for Graham and Daniels and the Texans regularly feature their tight end week in and week out. Griffin is a bit of a reach, but one that could bear fruit for those of you lacking a consistent TE1.
Zach Ertz, Phi vs. Chi
Ertz is starting to play more snaps than Brent Celek and this week they play against a Bears defense allowing the 9th most points to tight ends. Ertz has three strong games in his last six, including Sunday’s 6-57-1 against the Vikings. With a growing role in the Eagles’ offense, Ertz is poised to finish his rookie season on a strong note.
Tyler Eifert, Cin vs. Min
Eifert caught a touchdown against the Steelers last week and he has a matchup against a Viking defense allowing the third most points. Eifert is canceled out a lot by Jermaine Gresham, but the potential to catch a touchdown in this matchup makes him worth a reach in deeper leagues.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Detroit vs. NY Giants
The Lions defense played rather well holding the Ravens to six field goals on Monday Night Football and this week the matchup couldn’t get any better. No offense has yielded more fantasy points for defenses than the New York Giants. Eli Manning can’t seem to avoid throwing interceptions and while the Lions no longer control their playoff fate, they’ll be playing hard and their front four should prove to be a handful for the struggling Giants offensive line.
Miami at Buffalo
The Bills haven’t been able to protect EJ Manuel well allowing 11 sacks in their last two games and the Dolphins pass rush is among the best units in the league. Allowing the seventh most points to opposing defenses, the Bills allowed 4 sacks and a turnover to the Dolphins back in Week 7, but they’ve been turning the ball over more frequently of late making Miami a strong upside play this week.
Cincinnati vs. Minnesota
While the Vikings defense has folded like a house of cards, their offense has been resilient in recent weeks despite Adrian Peterson’s injury and the Bengals have faded a bit down the stretch as well. But with the Bengals focused on making the playoffs in a home game against a Vikings defense allowing the eighth most points to opposing defenses, you could do much worse than the Bengals if you’re playing the matchups from week to week.
Cleveland at NY Jets
The Browns defense is playing well down the stretch. It would be more compelling if the game was at home in Cleveland, but it’s still an excellent matchup that could easily yield double digit points. The Jets have allowed the second most points to opposing defenses – only the Giants have been worse. On a down note, Joe Haden (hip pointer) will probably be inactive this week as he has not yet practiced as of Wednesday.
Other options for more desperate owners or those of you in deeper leagues include San Diego at home against a Raiders offense that has turned over the football eight times in the last two weeks resulting in two touchdowns for their opponents. Tennessee is hard to trust, but the Jaguars have allowed 46 sacks and committed 24 turnovers. They’re also probably without Cecil Shorts and Maurice Jones-Drew and they’ve allowed 14 sacks and turned it over 7 times in their last three games.
The last three teams to mention are on the opposite side of matchups covered above, but they’re all at home and have matchups against teams ranked in the top 10 for most points allowed to opposing defenses – Buffalo, NY Jets and Jacksonville. They’re all last ditch options, but any one of them could prove to be solid reaches against teams with quarterbacks that have either been sacked frequently (Tannehill, Campbell) or ones that have been turnover prone (Fitzpatrick).
