"The cosmos speaks in patterns" - Roger von Oech (paraphrase of Heraclitus)

"Luck is the residue of design" - Branch Rickey (Brooklyn Dodgers GM - integrated baseball)

"Our business is winning" - Bill Parcells (Ex-Giants/Patriots/Jets/Cowboys HC, MIA exec and Hall of Famer)

The subject matter of ETTG is IDP with an emphasis on Dynasty leagues. Ear To The Ground was chosen for this column's title to convey a sense of detecting rumblings in the distance... an ability essential to project a prospect from college to pro and rookie to veteran. It will consist of three sections: Team Reports (Watchlist), a Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter, and a new section... The Lateral (rogue, guerilla offensive coverage). The emphasis here will be on the impact positions of LB, DE and S. Exceptional DTs and CBs will be noted for leagues that differentiate DE/DT and S/CB. Dynasty content is geared towards youth. Like most successful working rosters that employ a blend of production and potential, there will be a balance of rookie and veteran coverage in the mix. While by the nature of much IDP coverage new names will bubble up to the surface from week to week, ETTG will try to identify key players early on and provide a synoptic overview for the whole season as it unfolds.

Welcome to season number ten of ETTG, and best of luck this year (but see the middle quote that heads this column above). The next two installments will be special edition dynasty studies for offense and defense, respectively, before returning to regular in-season programming...

POSITIONAL, AGE & PEDIGREE MATRIX - TRAILING TWO YEAR SCORING LEADERS (OFFENSE)

A Summing Up - Changing of the Guard?

Dynasty players know intuitively that in general it is a good thing to target young, high pedigree prospects, but this study aims to make this loose body of knowledge more precise, rigorous and quantitative.

It is always a good habit when examining the top 10/20/30 (or whatever sample size you choose to put under the data-scope) to try and guesstimate who is legit and who is a pretender. Which skill position players are likely to remain from the previous season's final standings, and who will be jettisoned? Which ones currently outside the positional leader standings have a shot to penetrate it, and who will remain isolated outside?

Take care to look at games played (and missed) in this context. It is also hoped that the below breakdowns by position, age and pedigree will provide some clues in your own research.

There are eight sets of top 10/20/30 standings (four positions of QB/RB/WR/TE for '12 and '11), with data organized by position, rank, name, NFL team, age, draft pedigree, college, height & weight, games played and points scored) which can be scanned and assimilated fairly rapidly. Of course there is some overlap from '11 to '12 in the top 10/20/30 standings for the respective positions.

More fertile ground for data mining would be looking at measurables (for positional physical prototype info), as well as college pedigree (Div I, small school, etc.), but these will be left as a suggestion for further research and an exercise for interested readers. Also, 40 times (not included here) can be instructive for positional breakdown, though also misleading at times.

You can also look at the age data and breakdown not only WITHIN a position to see where a certain positional player is likely to be in his learning curve (ramping up, peaking, cresting or twilight), but also to see if there are INTER-POSITIONAL differences... i.e. - are there identifiable and recognizable differential patterns of developmental rate curves BETWEEN positions? Are there pedigree distribution differences in the top 10/20/30 across the respective positions? And so on...

This is obviously a crazy small sample size (two seasons), and not too much of the INTER-POSITIONAL differences in terms of age developmental and life cycles and pedigree distribution at the top alluded to above should be inferred solely from this study. With the pro game evolving so rapidly, though, it is unclear how relevant methodical and systematic back-tests of what happened decades ago would be to the present? The intent here is definitely to track this type of information going forward, to see if some of the trends/patterns observed and noted below hold up, or prove to be chalked up as historical aberrations and anomalies, statistical randomness and a case of finding spurious, unwarranted connections where they don't exist.

It will also be interesting to track going forward whether any appreciable impact is felt in the longevity column due to potential ongoing advances in sports medicine (surgery and rehab therapy), nutritional science, training regimens, etc.

The numbers should be allowed to speak for themselves, however, some interstitial commentary has been included to provide contextual perspective and also to draw out potential implications/inferences that some data may SEEM to suggest and be pointing towards. Taking a step back, so to speak, can enable a more bird's eye view perspective of the mosaic. Using a historical lens to broadly survey the dynasty statistical landscape can lead to discovering more oases (plural of oasis) of coherent signal from an otherwise roiling informational maelstrom within the sea of noise, or fuel for your pattern recognition engine, during long range flyovers.

* Why Top 10 QB, Top 20 RB, Top 30 WR and Top 10 TE? For one reason, in a standard 10 team, non-flex league that yields a full complement of starting skill position starters for every team, as well as falling players to target in bigger (12/14/16 team) leagues. Also, there tends to be a lack of difference makers after that point, with the gap between appreciably smaller and increasingly less important. While examinations that go deeper in numbers would yield different answers to different questions, this study is not interested in mediocrity, but represents a historical and statistical attempt to identify potential defining characteristics and hallmarks of excellence.

2012 QUARTERBACK - TOP 10

'12 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('12), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played, Points Scored

1. Drew Brees, NO, 33, 2.1, Purdue (6'0" 210), 16 - 418
2. Aaron Rodgers, GB, 29, 1.24, California (6'2" 225), 16 - 401
3. Tom Brady, NE, 35, 6.33, Michigan, (6'4"225), 16 - 397
4. Cam Newton, CAR, 23, 1.1, Auburn (6'5" 245), 16 - 380
5. Peyton Manning, DEN, 36, 1.1, Tennessee (6'5" 230), 16 - 371
6. Matt Ryan, ATL, 27, 1.3, Boston College (6'4" 220), 16 - 370
7. Robert Griffin III, WAS, 22, 1.2, Baylor (6'2" 220), 15 - 361
8. Tony Romo, DAL, 32, UFA, Eastern Illinois (6'2" 235), 16 - 349
9. Matthew Stafford, DET, 24, 1.1, Georgia (6'3" 230), 16 - 348
10. Andrew Luck, IND, 23, 1.1, Stanford (6'4" 240), 16 - 348

Data Mining Section

Percentage of QB from '11 Top 10 - 7 of 10 (70%)

Lowest churn rate of all the skill positions in either of the two years examined in this study.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 418 - 348 = 70 pts

Less separation than some previous seasons (such as Manning and Brady's record breaking campaigns). While the rising tide of increased passing trends may not lift ALL boats, it has been a factor at the top...

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 3
• (24-26) - 1
• (27-29) - 2
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 2
• (36+) - 1

Intuitively QB seems like a position where players can play longer and at a higher level. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are 35+, and Drew Brees will join them in 2014 (with Aaron Rodgers entering the 30+ demographic in 2013). A possible corollary of contemporary rules more protective of the QB (can't hit high or low - like the key Reservoir Dogs song Stuck in the Middle) is greater durability and longevity.

Roughly balancing the aging demographic side of the equation (40% 30 or older and 60% younger) was a historically good 2012 QB class, with the top two overall picks impressively cracking the top 10 as rookies. Luck lived up to his billing as the best prospect at the position since Peyton Manning and maybe even John Elway. Robert Griffin III broke several league rookie passing records, and already looks like one of the most dangerous running QBs ever, if his knee holds up.

Luck, Griffin III and brilliant Seattle third round discovery and fellow phenom Russell Wilson all improbably made the playoffs as rookies, and Wilson could be joining Luck and Griffin III in the top 10 in 2013 (in the last eight games, he led the league in QB rating, sporting a preposterous 16-2 TD/INT ratio, mixing in strong rushing numbers… also like Luck and Griffin III). Another first year starter, soph sensation Colin Kaepernick, played well enough after taking over for the injured and since replaced Alex Smith mid-season to lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl. His prorated stats projected over a full season point towards another possible top 10 finish in 2013, also augmented by superior running skills (broke or tied several NCAA rushing records for his position).

It awaits to be seen if older QBs have longer careers with rule changes, not to mention advances in sports medicine and state-of-the-art rehab. The collective achievement of the 2012 QB class looks cyclical in nature, probably the best in three decades, since the historic Elway, Kelly and Marino Class of 1983.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 8
• (Round 4-7) - 1
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

By Round

• 1 - 7
• 2 - 1
• 3 - 0
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 0
• UFA - 1

Pedigree has not always been as important as it appears in 2012. Sixth rounder Tom Brady is one of the best ever, and UFAs Kurt Warner and Tony Romo have performed at a high level in recent years. After the first three QBs, second rounder Drew Brees, low first rounder Aaron Rodgers and Brady, pedigree weighs heavily. Of the next seven QBs, other than Romo, the rest of the list is populated by four top overall picks (Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton and Luck), second overall Griffin III and third overall Matt Ryan. Third rounder Wilson (and second rounder Kaepernick) could shift the pedigree distribution somewhat in 2013.

QB is a clearly a position where difficult to measure intangibles such as leadership, confidence, football IQ, pocket sense, field awareness, timing and toughness play at least as big if not an even bigger role than run of the mill measurables (such as quant-friendly triangle numbers) in determining a prospects ultimate fate at the next level, a partial explanation for why this position seems like such a roll of the dice at times for scouts and franchises.

But as we have seen, there has been an influx of talented, young, high pedigree QBs in recent years. Perhaps the contemporary collegiate training and proving ground is better preparing prospects for the rigors of the NFL (and when innovative, progressive, forward looking football minds like HC Bill Belichick consults with and begins to incorporate schematic ideas from cutting edge counterparts in college, demarcation lines between college and pro begin to seem increasingly artificial and fuzzy)? Certainly the same rule changes in recent years favoring and helping open up the passing game that have benefited vets, trickles down to the most athletic, intelligent, talented and prepared rookies, as well. Can college manufacture enough elite DEs, hybrid 3-4 rush backers and cover CBs to slow down the burgeoning signal callers (paging Jadeveon Clowney to the green room)?

* Robert Griffin III missed one game (concussion symptoms protocol), the only top 10 QB to play less than 16. In fact, he was the only top 10 QB to miss a game in either 2011 or 2012. This is the tangible payoff for the league after years of new rules favoring offense in general and protective of QBs specifically.

2011 QUARTERBACK - TOP 10

'11 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('11), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Drew Brees, NO, 32, 2.1, Purdue (6'0" 210), 16 - 458
2. Aaron Rodgers, GB, 28, 1.24, California (6'2" 225), 16 - 450
3. Tom Brady, NE, 34, 6.33, Michigan, (6'4"225), 16 - 435
4. Cam Newton, CAR, 22, 1.1, Auburn (6'5" 245), 16 - 427
5. Matthew Stafford, DET, 23, 1.1, Georgia (6'3" 230), 16 - 408
6. Eli Manning, NYG, 30, 1.1, Mississippi (6'4" 220), 16 - 353
7. Tony Romo, DAL, 31, UFA, Eastern Illinois (6'2" 235), 16 - 334
8. Matt Ryan, ATL, 26, 1.3, Boston College (6'4" 220), 16 - 333
9. Philip Rivers, SD, 30, 1.4, North Carolina State (6'5" 230), 16 - 329
10. Mark Sanchez, NYJ, 25, 1.5, USC (6'2" 225), 16 - 306

Data Mining Section

Percentage of QB from '10 Top 10 - 6 of 10 (60%)

Churn rate higher than 2012 QB, comparable to 2011-2012 RB and 2011 TE, lower than 2011-2012 WR and 2012 TE.

The top four QBs in 2012 are eerily similar here. While there may be a percentage of churning, it hasn't occurred at the top the past few years.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 458 - 306 = 152 pts

This was the largest separation amount for any skill position in either 2011-2012, the historical scope of this survey.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 2
• (24-26) - 2
• (27-29) - 1
• (30-32) - 4
• (33-35) - 1
• (36+) - 0

With the perspective of another season, it is an opportunity to see if the data suggests there are patterns within the randomness measured over longer spans. Are these patterns cyclical in nature (like the QB classes of 1983 and 2012), or do marked and pronounced trends pop out of the cyclical examples, like a Rodin relief sculpture struggling to emerge from the matrix it is embedded in (hard to see the forward pass ever going completely out of style)?

Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Mark Sanchez dropped out in 2012. Manning has the talent and supporting cast to make a return in 2013, Rivers appears to be at a career crossroads, and Sanchez is descending (not too long ago viewed as a franchise QB by the Jets, his probable replacement, rookie Geno Smith, was drafted in the second round… while as we shall see, some larger patterns may endure over longer periods, the individual fortunes of particular prospects can change in a relative blink of an eye relative to historical time frames of the dynasty landscape).

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 8
• (Round 4-7) - 1
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

By Round

• 1 - 7
• 2 - 1
• 3 - 0
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 0
• UFA - 1

Again, the pedigree distribution is eerily similar to 2012. With the exception of Brees (2.1), Brady (6.33) and Romo (UFA), the remaining seven top 10 QBs were first rounders, and all but Rodgers HIGH first rounders, with Sanchez being the lowest (1.5).

Another reason pedigree is important is not just as a sort of proxy for scout vetting, but franchise's tend to extend more chances to higher pedigree prospects, and stick with them longer, at least earlier in their career. After repeated failure, high pedigree good will no longer helped Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell. Sanchez is not as drastic or extreme an example, and it is too early to write him off as a complete bust, but clearly he is no longer viewed in the same light by the Jets or around the league, compared to even one or two years ago.

* Every top 10 QB in 2011 played a complete 16 games.

2012 RUNNING BACKS - TOP 20

'12 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('12), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN, 27, 1.7, Oklahoma (6'1" 217), 16 - 309
2. Arian Foster, HOU, 26, UFA, Tennessee (6'1" 230), 16 - 265
3. Doug Martin, TB, 23, 1.31, Boise State (5'9" 215), 16 - 265
4. Marshawn Lynch, SEA, 26, 1.12, California (5'11" 215), 16 - 251
5. Alfred Morris, WAS, 24, 6.3, Florida Atlantic (5'10" 220), 16 - 246
6. Ray Rice, BAL, 25, 2.24, Rutgers (5'8" 212), 16 - 222
7. C.J. Spiller, BUF, 25, 1.9, Clemson (5'11" 200), 16 - 218
8. Jamaal Charles, KC, 26, 3.10, Texas (5'11" 200), 16 - 211
9. Trent Richardson, CLE, 22, 1.3, Alabama (5'9" 230), 15 - 204
10. Stevan Ridley, NE, 23, 3.9, LSU (5'11" 220), 16 - 203
11. Frank Gore, SF, 29, 3.1, Miami (5'9" 217), 16 - 199
12. Chris Johnson, TEN, 27, 1.24, East Carolina (5'11" 190), 16 - 183
13. Matt Forte, CHI, 27, 2.13, Tulane (6'2" 220), 15 - 179
14. Reggie Bush, MIA, 27, 1.2, USC (6'0" 205), 16 - 176
15. Shonn Greene, NYJ, 27, 3.1, Iowa (6'0" 230), 16 - 169
16. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG, 26, 7.40, Marshall (5'10" 215), 14 - 162
17. Steven Jackson, STL, 29, 1.24, Oregon State (6'2" 240), 16 - 160
18. Michael Turner, ATL, 30, 5.22, Northern Illinois (5'10" 240), 16 - 159
19. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 27, UFA, Mississippi (5'10" 220), 15 - 156
20. Mikel Leshoure, DET, 22, 2.25, Illinois (5'10" 230), 14 - 155

Data Mining Section

Percentage of RB from '11 Top 20 - 12 of 20 (60%)

Higher churn rate relative to 2012 QB, same as 2011 QB, RB and TE, lower than 2011-2012 WR and 2012 TE.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 309 - 203 = 106 pts
• #11 & #20 Scorer... 199 - 155 = 44 pts

Despite a heroic, nearly historic season, in which Adrian Peterson took a run at Eric Dickerson's season rushing yards record (falling less than 10 yards short), slightly less separation here than Ray Rice had in 2011. This also speaks to what was happening around them with positional peers and counterparts during respective seasons.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 4
• (24-26) - 7
• (27-29) - 8
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 0
• (36+) - 0

A sobering look at the reality of post-30 year old RBs (95% of the top 20 RBs were under 30, by far the highest ratio of any skill position). More than any other skill position, this is a young man's game. Like 16th century political theorist Thomas Hobbes characterization of human life in the pre-governmental state of nature, an NFL RBs life is often solitary (well, maybe a bit less with the proliferation of RBBCs), poor, nasty, brutish and short. Leaving aside the momentous, fateful 30 year old watershed, Peterson was the "oldest" RB at 27 among the top 10 RBs in 2012.

The three oldest with a top 20 finish last season were Michael Turner at 30 (maybe for the last time), than 29 year olds Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. After toiling in obscurity for nearly a decade with the Rams, Jackson replaces Turner for the Falcons with the hope of winning an elusive Super Bowl in his twilight years. Atlanta hopes he has more left in the tank than his predecessor. Gore continues to play at a high level, and could be the exception that plays well into his early thirties. Despite his violent collision-friendly, seek and destroy running style, Peterson has proven himself to be enough of a mutant and anomalous historical precedent that he could also have a chance at beating the odds.

Taking a brief look at the 2013 rookie RB class in passing, consensus top RB Eddie Lacy (GB) dropped to near the bottom of the second round (first time in the common draft era no RBs were selected in the first round) and was only the fourth selected at his position, after Giovani Bernard (CIN), Le'Veon Bell (PIT) and Montee Ball (DEN), after durability and longevity concerns already surfaced. It should be noted that, in comparison to his 2013 second round RB peers and counterparts, and in spite of similarly nifty feet and superior movement skills for a big man, stylistically, Lacy is more likely to not only not shy away from contract, but actively seek it out. Bernard, Ball and even big back Bell (ranged from 230-245 lbs) can be shifty and elusive, and would generally prefer to run around and away from prospective tacklers, than through them. The combination of a checkered medical file and Lacy's barbaric, medieval running style fueled scout's concerns that he could have a short (er than normal - it is a given that many RBs routinely and even in the best of circumstances tend to have short careers) career.

After 2012 rookie first rounders Trent Richardson and Doug Martin broke out with outstanding debuts (not to mention sixth rounder Alfred Morris - all three made the 2012 top 10), intriguing fellow soph first rounder David Wilson, as well as second year fourth rounder Lamar Miller are intriguing, and could be primed for big jumps in 2013.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 16
• (Round 4-7) - 3
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

By Round

• 1 - 8
• 2 - 4
• 3 - 4
• 4 - 1
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 1
• UFA - 1

Pedigree figured prominently at the RB position last year, as well as QB. In the case of the QBs in 2012 and 2011, only 20% of the top 10 finishers weren't drafted in the first two rounds. Of the 2012 RBs, only 20% of the top 20 finishers weren't drafted in the first three rounds.

* Trent Richardson cracked the top 10 despite missing a game, never easy. Matt Forte and BenJarvus Green-Ellis made the top 20 playing 15 games. Ahmad Bradshaw and Mikell Leshoure were in the top 20 though only playing 14 games. Relative to other positions, more top 20 RBs missed games, and they missed a larger number of games.

2011 RUNNING BACKS - TOP 20

'11 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('11), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Ray Rice, BAL, 25, 2.24, Rutgers (5'8" 212), 16 - 301
2. LeSean McCoy, 23, 2.21, Pittsburgh (5'11" 205), 15 - 282
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, 26, 2.28, UCLA (5'7" 210), 16 - 264
4. Arian Foster, HOU, 25, UFA, Tennessee (6'1" 230), 16 - 256
5. Marshawn Lynch, SEA, 25, 1.12, California (5'11" 215), 16 - 220
6. Michael Turner, ATL, 29, 5.22, Northern Illinois (5'10" 240), 16 - 217
7. Ryan Mathews, SD, 24, 1.12, Fresno State (6'0" 220), 12 - 191
8. Adrian Peterson, MIN, 26, 1.7, Oklahoma (6'1" 220), 12 - 189
9. Michael Bush, OAK, 27, 4.1, Louisville (6'1" 245), 16 - 188
10. Darren Sproles, NO, 28, 4.29, Kansas State (5'6" 190), 16 - 185
11. Steven Jackson, STL, 28, 1.24, Oregon State (6'2" 240), 15 - 184
12. Frank Gore, SF, 28, 3.1, Miami (5'9" 217), 16 - 181
13. Reggie Bush, MIA, 26, 1.2, USC (6'0" 205), 15 - 180
14. Fred Jackson, BUF, 30, UFA, Coe (6'1" 215), 10 - 174
15. Matt Forte, CHI, 26, 2.13, Tulane (6'2" 220), 12 - 173
16. Chris Johnson, TEN, 26, 1.24, East Carolina (5'11" 190), 16 - 171
17. Chris Wells, ARI, 23, 1.31, Ohio State (6'1" 235), 14 - 170
18. Shonn Greene, NYJ, 26, 3.1, Iowa (6'0" 230), 16 - 163
19. Rashard Mendenhall, 24, 1.23, Illinois (5'10" 225), 15 - 162
20. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG, 25, 7.40, Marshall (5'10" 215), 12 - 159

Data Mining Section

Percentage of RB from '10 Top 20 - 12 of 20 (60%)

Same churn rate as 2012 RB, 2011 QB and TE, lower than 2011-2012 WR and 2012 TE.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 301 - 185 = 116 pts
• #11 & #20 Scorer... 184 - 159 = 25 pts

Ray Rice had a career season in 2011. While still relatively young (for a RB - any other skill position loses the relatively qualifier) at 27 in 2013, Rice's days of leading the league in scoring could be in the rear view mirror, with the Ravens looking to get good looking second year RB Bernard Pierce more involved. Apart from the narrow impact on Rice's top end numbers, this could be a positive development in Baltimore on the macro level for several reasons. They can bring waves of rested RBs at opposing defenses throughout games, Pierce's increased use could keep Rice healthy late in the season and in position for another deep playoff run defending their Super Bowl championship, and longer term, Pierce could play an instrumental role in helping extend Rice's career (for potentially multiple Super Bowl runs in the future).

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 2
• (24-26) - 12
• (27-29) - 5
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 0
• (36+) - 0

Again, as in the case of 2012, even a brief survey of the top 20 finishers at the position in 2011 would note that the 30+ RB landscape is ugly (probably sole rep Fred Jackson's last time on the list, with emerging star C.J. Spiller expected to play a more prominent role going forward after his 2012 breakout). This is a big reason why young, high pedigree, already accomplished feature RBs like Trent Richardson and Doug Martin are such coveted commodities in dynasty leagues. The ratio of under 30 RBs in the top 20 for 2011 was 95%, same as 2012.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 14
• (Round 4-7) - 4
• Undrafted Free Agent - 2

By Round

• 1 - 8
• 2 - 4
• 3 - 2
• 4 - 2
• 5 - 1
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 1
• UFA - 2

Pedigree distribution not as heavily weighted as we saw with 2012 RBs, or 2011-2012 QBs. In this instance, only 20% of the top 20 RBs weren't drafted in the first four rounds.

* Again one RB, LeSean McCoy in 2011, cracked the top 10 despite missing one game (finishing second, helped by a league lead in TDs). Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush and Rashard Mendenhall all ended up in the top 20 though missing a game. Even more impressively, Peterson and (surprisingly) Ryan Mathews had top 10 finishes despite missing four games, effectively spotting the league a quarter of the season! This could could bode well for Mathews if he can ever manage to remain healthy for all or most of a season. Fred Jackson incredibly was a top 20 RB missing SIX games!! Matt Forte and Ahmad Bradshaw (also missed two games in 2012) were top 20 though missing four games, and the currently unemployed Chris Wells missed two.

2012 WIDE RECEIVERS - TOP 30

'12 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('12), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Calvin Johnson, DET, 27, 1.2, Georgia Tech (6'5" 235), 16 - 226
2. Brandon Marshall, DEN, 28, 4.22, Central Florida (6'4" 230), 16 - 217
3. Dez Bryant, DAL, 24, 1.24, Oklahoma State (6'2" 220), 16 - 210
4. A.J. Green, CIN, 24, 1.4, Georgia (6'4" 207), 16 - 205
5. Demaryius Thomas, DEN, 25, 1.22, Georgia Tech (6'3" 230), 16 - 204
6. Vincent Jackson, SD, 29, 2.29, Northern Colorado (6'5" 230), 16 - 186
7. Eric Decker, DEN, 25, 3.23, Minnesota (6'3" 215), 16 - 184
8. Andre Johnson, Andre, HOU, 31, 1.3, Miami (6'3" 230), 16 - 184
9. Julio Jones, ATL, 23, 1.6, Alabama (6'3" 220), 16 - 183
10. Roddy White, ATL, 31, 1.27, UAB (6'0" 200), 16 - 177
11. Marques Colston, NO, 29, 7.44, Hofstra (6'4" 225), 16 - 175
12. Wes Welker, NE, 31, UFA, Texas Tech (5'9" 185), 16 - 173
13. Victor Cruz, NYG, 26, UFA, Massachusetts (6'0" 205), 16 - 169
14. Michael Crabtree, SF, 25, 1.10, Texas Tech (6'1" 215), 16 - 165
15. Reggie Wayne, IND, 34, 1.30, Miami (6'0" 200), 16 - 165
16. James Jones, GB, 28, 3.14, San Jose State (6'1" 210), 16 - 162
17. Randall Cobb, GB, 22, 2.32, Kentucky (5'10" 190), 15 - 157
18. Mike Williams, TB, 25, 4.3, Syracuse (6'2" 215), 16 - 155
19. Steve Smith, CAR, 33, 3.12, Utah (5'9" 185), 16 - 144
20. Steve Johnson, BUF, 26, 7.17, Kentucky (6'2" 210), 16 - 141
21. Lance Moore, NO, 29, UFA, Toledo (5'9" 190), 15 - 140
22. Cecil Shorts, JAX, 25, 4.17, Mount Union (6'0" 200), 14 - 140
23. Torrey Smith, BAL, 23, 2.26, Maryland (6'0" 205), 16 - 134
24. Mike Wallace, PIT, 26, 3.20, Mississippi (6'0" 195), 15 - 133
25. T.Y. Hilton, IND, 23, 3.29, Florida International (5'10" 180), 15 - 131
26. Miles Austin, DAL, 28, UFA, Monmouth (6'2" 215), 16 - 130
27. Jeremy Maclin, PHI, 24, 1.19, Missouri (6'0" 200), 15 - 128
28. Justin Blackmon, JAX, 22, 1.5, Oklahoma State (6'1" 210), 16 - 119
29. Sidney Rice, SEA, 26, 2.12, South Carolina (6'4" 200), 16 - 119
30. Golden Tate, SEA, 24, 2.28, Notre Dame (5'10" 200), 15 - 118

Data Mining Section

Percentage of WR from '11 Top 30 - 15 of 30 (50%

Higher churn rate than QB or RB in 2011-2012 and TE in 2011, exceeded only by 2011 WR and 2012 TE.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 WR... 226 - 177 = 49 pts
• #11 & #20 WR... 175 - 141 = 24 pts
• #21 & #30 WR... 140 - 118 = 22 pts

Despite Calvin Johnson's record breaking yardage numbers, his lack of TDs (relative to 2011) led to one of the lower separation numbers at the top of all the skill positions for either of the two years covered in this study. It is important to note FBGs default scoring has been used, and the separation would be more pronounced in PPR-based scoring systems.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 4
• (24-26) - 14
• (27-29) - 7
• (30-32) - 3
• (33-35) - 2
• (36+) - 0

Age is distributed fairly evenly among the top 10 WRs, with the "oldest" including two 31, one 29, one 28 and one 27, and the youngest including one 23, two 24 and two 25. Five top 30 WRs are in the 30+ demographic, representing a lower figure than the QB position on a percentage basis, but far more than RB, of course (83% of top 30 WRs 2012 are less than 30, the second highest ratio among skill positions, after the resounding 95% of RBs in both 2011-2012). We could see a shift in the demographic in 2013, as Vincent Jackson turns 30, as well as two Saints, Marques Colston and Lance Moore.

Two rookies made the top 30 in 2012, T.Y. Hilton and top ten overall WR pedigree Justin Blackmon. Josh Gordon has future top 5-type talent. Blackmon (four games) and Gordon (two games) begin the year suspended, and both have major character questions and attendant off-field red flags. Michael Floyd is another talent from class of '12, may be top WR in Notre Dame history (Tim Brown and Rocket Ismail among more high profile pass catching alumni) and is positioned to do far better in year two. First round 2013 rookie WRs Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Peterson, as well as high second rounder Justin Hunter could all have the talent to find their collective way into the top 30 WRs in future seasons.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 21
• (Round 4-7) - 5
• Undrafted Free Agent - 4

By Round

• 1 - 11
• 2 - 5
• 3 - 5
• 4 - 3
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 2
• UFA - 4

The pedigree distribution for the 2012 top 30 WRs of 70% taken in first three rounds is not as high as the 80% of QBs in 2011-2012 and RBs in 2012, but replicates the 70% ratio of 2011 RBs, 2011 WRs and 2011-2012 TEs. Higher up the food chain, among the top 10 WRs in 2012, 70% were selected in the first round.

* Randall Cobb was the only WR in the top 20 (#17) to miss a game. Elsewhere in the top 30, Lance Moore, Mike Wallace, rookie T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin and Golden Tate also missed one game, and Cecil Shorts missed two. WR falls below QB safety and health-wise, but ahead of TE and RB in the violent injury occupational hazard positional spectrum.

2011 WIDE RECEIVERS - TOP 30

'11 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('11), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Calvin Johnson, DET, 26, 1.2, Georgia Tech (6'5" 235), 16 - 265
2. Jordy Nelson, GB, 26, 2.5, Kansas State (6'3" 217), 16 - 216
3. Wes Welker, NE, 30, UFA, Texas Tech (5'9" 185), 16 - 214
4. Victor Cruz, NYG, 25, UFA, Massachusetts (6'0" 205), 16 - 208
5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, 28, 1.3, Pittsburgh (6'3" 220), 16 - 189
6. Steve Smith, CAR, 32, 3.12, Utah (5'9" 185), 16 - 187
7. Percy Harvin, MIN, 23, 1.22, Florida (5'11" 190), 16 - 179
8. Roddy White, ATL, 30, 1.27, UAB (6'0" 200), 16 - 178
9. Mike Wallace, PIT, 25, 3.20, Mississippi (6'0" 195), 16 - 173
10. Vincent Jackson, SD, 28, 2.29, Northern Colorado (6'5" 230), 16 - 170
11. Marques Colston, NO, 28, 7.44, Hofstra (6'4" 225), 14 - 162
12. Hakeem Nicks, NYG, 23, 1.29, North Carolina (6'1" 210), 15 - 159
13. Brandon Marshall, DEN, 27, 4.22, Central Florida (6'4" 230), 16 - 159
14. AJ Green, CIN, 23, 1.4, Georgia (6'4" 207), 15 - 153
15. Laurent Robinson, 26, 3.11, Illinois State (6'2" 200), 14 - 152
16. Nate Washington, TEN, 28, UFA, Tiffin (6'1" 185), 16 - 151
17. Julio Jones, ATL, 22, 1.6, Alabama (6'3" 220), 13 - 150
18. Greg Jennings, GB, 28, 2.20, Western Michigan (5'11" 195), 13 - 149
19. Dez Bryant, DAL, 23, 1.24, Oklahoma State (6'2" 220), 15 - 147
20. Dwayne Bowe, KC, 27, 1.23, LSU (6'2" 220), 16 - 147
21. Steve Johnson, BUF, 25, 7.17, Kentucky (6'2" 210), 16 - 142
22. Pierre Garcon, IND, 26, 6.39, Mount Union (6'0" 210), 16 - 134
23. Torrey Smith, BAL, 22, 2.26, Maryland (6'0" 205), 16 - 130
24. Antonio Brown, PIT, 23, 6.26, Central Michigan (5'10" 185), 16 - 127
25. Brandon Lloyd, DEN/STL, 30, 4.27, Illinois (6'0" 200), 15 - 127
26. Jabar Gaffney, WAS, 31, 2.1, Florida (6'1" 195), 16 - 125
27. DeSean Jackson, PHI, 25, 2.18, California (5'10" 175), 15 - 124
28. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK, 24, 1.7, Maryland (6'2" 215), 15 - 122
29. Reggie Wayne, IND, 33, 1.30, Miami (6'0" 200), 16 - 120
30. Jeremy Maclin, PHI, 23, 1.19, Missouri (6'0" 200), 13 - 116

Data Mining Section

Percentage of WR from '10 Top 30 - 16 of 30 (53%)

Higher churn rate than 2011-2012 QB and RB and 2011 TE, nearly as much churning as 2012 WR, exceeded only by 2012 TE.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 WR... 265 - 170 = 95 pts
• #11 & #20 WR... 162 - 147 = 15 pts
• #21 & #30 WR... 142 - 116 = 26 pts

As noted above, Calvin Johnson actually had greater separation this season because of the far more robust TD numbers compared to his record breaking yardage campaign in 2012.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 8
• (24-26) - 9
• (27-29) - 7
• (30-32) - 5
• (33-35) - 1
• (36+) - 0

The 80% ratio of 2011 top 30 WRs under 30 roughly in line with 83% in 2012, both higher than QBs examined in the 2011-2012 time frame, but still falling short of the stupefying 95% ratio of RBs in 2011-2012.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 21
• (Round 4-7) - 6
• Undrafted Free Agent - 3

By Round

• 1 - 12
• 2 - 6
• 3 - 3
• 4 - 2
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 2
• 7 - 2
• UFA - 3

The 70% ratio of 2011 top 30 WRs taken in the first three rounds is identical to 2012. Comparing the two years at the top, only 40% of the 2011 top 10 WRs were taken in the first round (70% in 2012). The remainder were comprised in part by two third rounders (Steve Smith and Mike Wallace), a near third rounder (Vincent Jackson - 2.29) and two UFAs (slot receivers extraordinaire, Wes Welker and Victor Cruz).

* Marques Colston, no stranger to the injury report, was the highest finishing top 30 WR in 2011 to miss a game (missed two), at #11. Hakeem Nicks (also a frequenter of the injury report), A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Lloyd, DeSean Jackson and Darrius Heyward-Bey all missed one game, Laurent Robinson missed two, with Julio Jones, Greg Jennings and Jeremy Maclin (another injury report habitual) all missing three games.

2012 TIGHT ENDS - TOP 10

'12 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('12), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Jimmy Graham, NO, 26, 3.31, Miami (6'7" 265), 15 - 152
2. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 23, 2.10, Arizona (6'6" 265), 11 - 145
3. Tony Gonzalez, KC, 36, 1.13, California (6'5" 247), 16 - 141
4. Heath Miller, PIT, 30, 1.30, Virginia (6'5" 255), 15 - 130
5. Jason Witten, DAL, 30, 3.5, Tennessee, (6'5" 260), 16 - 122
6. Greg Olsen, CHI, 27, 1.31, Miami (6'5" 250), 16 - 114
7. Dennis Pitta, BAL, 27, 4.16, Brigham Young (6'4" 245), 16 - 109
8. Owen Daniels, HOU, 30, 4.1, Wisconsin (6'3" 250), 15 - 108
9. Brandon Myers, OAK, 27, 6.29, Iowa (6'3" 255), 16 - 105
10. Jermaine Gresham, CIN, 24, 1.21, Oklahoma (6'5" 260), 16 - 104

Data Mining Section

Percentage of TE from '11 Top 10 - 4 of 10 (40%)

Highest churn rate of any skill position in 2011 or 2012.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 152 - 104 = 48 pts

This was the lowest separation of all the skill positions in 2011-2012 (albeit by a mere one point compared to 2012 WRs).

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 1
• (24-26) - 2
• (27-29) - 3
• (30-32) - 3
• (33-35) - 0
• (36+) - 1

Relative to early success enabled by the instinctive RB position, TE does seem very technique/assignment-intensive, making a positionally slow initial career arc and trajectory perhaps unsurprising. Also, with more blocking required relative to the other skill positions as an effectively hybrid skill position player/OL, a relatively quicker burn out rate compared to QB and WR might be expected (if not quite as withering as RB, another demanding, grueling, physically taxing position). That said, while 60% of 2012 top 10 TEs were less than 30, 40% were 30+.

Jason Witten, Heath Miller and Owen Daniels just turned 30 in 2012, so it awaits to be seen how gracefully they age, and how they might illustrate differential end game timelines for the TE position relative to the more longevity-friendly QB and WR positions, and the barren, harsh, stark realities of the post-30 RB wilderness. This is expected to be the final season for maybe the best TE ever, Tony Gonzalez.

Aaron Hernandez is a younger TE that dropped out in 2012 after making the list in 2011. He may have dropped out permanently with a murder charge (possibly multiple) looming. The past few years haven't brought a large influx of elite, blue chip TE prospects (23 year old Kyle Rudolph could break out, as could 26 year old Jared Cook), but sole rookie first rounder Tyler Eifert could be one, and ready to crack the top 10 in a year or two.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 7
• (Round 4-7) - 3
• Undrafted Free Agent - 0

By Round

• 1 - 4
• 2 - 1
• 3 - 2
• 4 - 2
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 0
• UFA - 0

Pedigree doesn't weigh as heavily as seen with QB in 2011-2012 and RB in 2012 (20% of top 10 QB and top 20 RB taken after first three rounds), but comparable to 2011 RB and 2011-2012 WR (30% of top 20 RB and top 30 WR taken after round three). The first six TEs were all drafted in the first three rounds, at which point that trend broke down, with two fourth rounders and a sixth rounder in the bottom four.

* Jimmy Graham finished #1 despite playing just 15 games. A testament to how potent a receiving weapon Rob Gronkowski is capable of being was by incredibly finishing a close second, giving up close to a third of a season handicap (RB Fred Jackson missed six games in 2011, but he finished #14). Alas, Gronkowski had multiple arm surgeries and most recently one on his back, so he is a candidate to possibly miss multiple games in 2013, as well. At some point, even accounting for some missed games, he represents compelling value because he is such a massive difference maker (like Peterson at RB and Calvin Johnson at WR) when he plays.

Heath Miller missed a game (and also may miss more time in 2013), as did Owen Daniels. So 40% of TEs missed time, but only Gronkowski more than a game. On the violent injury occupational hazard positional continuum, TE fares worse than QB and WR, but not as bad as RB (which has the general longevity profile/prognosis of a demolition derby driver).

2011 TIGHT ENDS - TOP 10

'11 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('11), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE, 22, 2.10, Arizona (6'6" 265), 16 - 241
2. Jimmy Graham, NO, 25, 3.31, Miami (6'7" 265), 16 - 197
3. Aaron Hernandez, NE, 22, 4.15, Florida (6'1" 245), 14 - 138
4. Tony Gonzalez, KC, 35, 1.13, California (6'5" 247), 16 - 130
5. Jermichael Finley, GB, 24, 3.28, Texas (6'5" 245), 16 - 125
6. Jason Witten, DAL, 29, 3.5, Tennessee, (6'5" 260), 16 - 124
7. Antonio Gates, SD, 31, UFA, Kent State (6'4" 260), 13 - 120
8. Vernon Davis, SF, 27, 1.6, Maryland (6'3" 250), 16 - 115
9. Dustin Keller, NYJ, 27, 1.30, Purdue (6'2" 240), 16 - 112
10. Brent Celek, PHI, 26, 5.25, Cincinnati (6'4" 250), 16 - 111

Data Mining Section

Percentage of TE from '11 Top 10 - 6 of 10 (60%)

More churning than QB in 2012, comparable to 2011 QB, 2011-2012 RB, not as high as 2011-2012 WR and 2012 TE.

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 241 - 111 = 130 pts

This was the second highest separation of any skill position in 2011-2012, after Drew Brees in 2011... and illustrates what kind of a difference maker Gronkowski is capable of being over a full season if healthy.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 2
• (24-26) - 3
• (27-29) - 3
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 1
• (36+) - 0

Similar to development cycle pattern for the position in 2012.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 7
• (Round 4-7) - 2
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

By Round

• 1 - 3
• 2 - 1
• 3 - 3
• 4 - 1
• 5 - 1
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 0
• UFA - 1

Pedigree distibution also mirrors the top 10 TE data from 2012. Note that the age and pedigree distribution patterns remained constant and endured (at least over the short two year time frame documented in this synoptic overview), despite the 60% churn rate from 2012 and 40% in 2011... like the throughput of a constantly changing cascade of molecules that sustain the form and structure of an organism over time.

Thanks for reading Ear to the Ground. All comments or questions invited - magaw@footballguys.com.