Week six is upon us already! Attrition, depth and matchup plays are the name of the game. The owner who does the best job replacing lost players and plugging lineup holes over the next few weeks is going to be in a position to win in December.
Arizona Cardinals
Inside linebackers Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washington put on a show against a Carolina team that had not been a particularly strong matchup over the first month of the season. They are interchangeable parts with nearly identical skill sets and their versatility allowed defensive coordinator Ray Horton to be creative in his calls. As a result the Cardinals defense was able to keep the Panthers off balance all day. Last week I expressed a concern that the competition for production between them might hold both guys back a little. That is still somewhat of a concern but the early returns suggest that they may actually open up opportunity for one another instead, particularly in the big play department. Dansby and Washington are every week must starts at this point.
With Rashad Johnson out again, Tyrann Mathieu made his second start at free safety. Mathieu however, was shifted into the slot corner role in nickel situations with backup free safety Tony Jefferson lining up at safety in those situations. Johnson is expected to return this week so we will be watching the snap counts. My hope/suspicion is that Mathieu has earned an every down role and that it will now be Johnson that draws the part time duties. It does not seem to matter where Mathieu lines up so long as he is on the field he will produce.
By his own standards Calais Campbell started slowly this year. His week five explosion lends plenty of reason to believe that he is back. He has some tough matchups over the next three weeks so if he struggles a little be patient. Between weeks 11 and 15 the Cardinals face the Jaguars, Eagles, Rams and Titans.
Baltimore Ravens
Daryl Smith has emerged as an every week start in most leagues. If there is any question about him this week, consider the numbers that some other linebackers have turned in versus the Packers in their last two games; Vontaze Burfict 10-1, Rey Maualuga 8-0, Stephen Tulloch 7-4 and DeAndre Levy 11-3.
If you are looking for a matchup based play to exploit at defensive back in week six, Matt Elam or James Ihedigbo could be your answer. Glover Quin, Bacarri Rambo, Donte Whitner, Reed Doughty and Eric Reed have all turned in double digit (or very near to double digit) fantasy points against the Packers.
Arthur Brown might be worthy of consideration this week as well if you are in a deep league. Brown played 28 snaps in the nickel linebacker role last week. Most teams use their nickel package as a base defense when facing the Packers. Brown could have a near every down role this week.
Buffalo Bills
This week should bring the return of Jairus Byrd to the Bills lineup. With the team still short handed at corner, look for Aaron Williams to continue working on the outside with Da'Norris Searcy shifting back to strong safety. For the most part Cincinnati has been a marginal matchup for safeties. Only the Patriots Devin McCourty and Steve Gregory have exceeded 4 solo stops with this matchup. On the other hand, the circumstances surrounding this week's game point toward a lot of opportunity for the Buffalo secondary. putting any of these guys in our lineup would be risky but I have a feeling Searcy may have a big game here.
Week five saw Manny Lawson reach double digit fantasy points for the third time in as many games. He will have extra motivation this week having played in Cincinnati for the past two seasons. That said, Lawson sack in week four and fumble recovery in week five are the reason his fantasy totals are inflated. Take away his 11 tackles in week three and Lawson has averaged fewer than 4 a game. He could be a decent desperation play this week but temper your expectations.
Carolina Panthers
Owners in corner required leagues may want to take a look at Josh Thomas. He was not impressive in the box scores last season as the Panthers nickel corner, but his two games as a starter this year have yielded 11 solo stops. At the least he is worth keeping an eye on.
Chicago Bears
The defensive line injuries just keep coming for the Bears. They will get Stephen Paea back this week but have now lost tackle Nate Collins who landed on IR with an ACL injury. As anticipated, the shuffle has moved Corey Wootton inside full time and made Shea McClellin a three down player at end. McClellin quietly finished week five with 4 tackles and a pair of assists while playing 64 of 68 snaps. What the fantasy stats fail to show is his 4 quarterback hurries. He is an above average pass rusher who may prove to be a pleasant surprise now that he has an opportunity. If you are short at the position or looking to beat the competition to the punch, he should be high on your free agent list this week.
Anyone who has Charles Tillman or Tim Jennings on their roster should be salivating over this weeks matchup. The Giants inability to run the ball led to 52 pass attempts against the Eagles. That in turn produced 18 solo tackles, 5 passes defended and a pick by their starting corners. Need I say more?
Cincinnati Bengals
With Michael Johnson sidelined due to a concussion, Wallace Gilberry made the start against New England and Margus Hunt was active for the first time this season. The result was 3 tackles, an assist, 2 sacks and a forced fumble for 20 fantasy points for Gilberry. Johnson should be back this week but GilBerry has proven himself worthy of a bigger role. We can expect to see him get more snaps going forward and if there is a long term injury to Johnson or Carlos Dunlap, leap on Gilberry as the replacement. Hunt's 40 snaps resulted in no box score entries but he did get a couple of quarter back hits and a hurry. He may be inactive for most of this season but has a bright future. Especially when you consider that Johnson is in the final year of his contract.
Dallas Cowboys
We knew going into week five that Ernie Sims would get the start at weak side linebacker. We were also pretty confident that the Cowboys would quickly realize the move was a mistake. As expected, Sims lasted less than one game. In fact, it lasted about a half. Carter was back in his every down role during the second half against Denver, finishing the game with 4 solo stops. There is still some uncertainty about his being an every down player in week six but Carter owners can probably put him back in the lineup this week. This would be a good time to pick him up if someone dumped him last week or make a buy low offer.
Denver Broncos
Middle linebacker Wesley Woodyard exited early from the week five contest with a shoulder injury. As of late Tuesday we are still awaiting word on the severity of the injury and/or if he will miss time. Even if Woodyard plays through the injury, a linebacker with a sore shoulder is not a fantasy productive prospect. Nate Irving served in an every down role after Woodyard left and would likely continue in that role this week if Woodyard sits. Denver gets the Jaguars this week so it matters little who takes the field. With Robert Ayers also going down in the Dallas game, the only Broncos worth starting this week are possibly Shaun Phillips and maybe the offensive guys. Even those players may be sitting by the third quarter.
Detroit Lions
Having been burnt by both Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy in the past, I have been highly reluctant to accept their production this season as a serious trend. That said, it is hard to argue with the fact that Levy has put up double digit fantasy points in four of five games to date and has exceeded 20 points twice. What makes me remain leery about Levy is that before the big tackle numbers in week five, he averaged fewer than 5 solo stops a game. The difference between this season and years past is he has been in a three down role in all five games and has been contributing in the big play columns. That aspect of his game had been missing in previous seasons. Only time will tell if the production will continue. Let me just say that I am warming to him at this point. I will also point out that no linebacker has recorded more than 6 solo stops against Cleveland this season, making them a less than desirable matchup. On the other hand, the Browns are allowing 4.1 sacks a game on average thus far, so Ezekial Ansah and Ndamukong Suh are must starts with Willie Young and Nick Fairley deserving of sleeper consideration.
Green Bay Packers
Injuries at the linebacker positions have the Packers scrambling this week. Clay Matthews is likely to miss at least a month with a broken thumb, Brad Jones left the week five game early with a hamstring injury and his backup Rob Francois tore his Achilles. This is great news for Ray Rice and the rest of the Baltimore offense but those of us looking for IDP help are left holding an empty bag. My best guess here is that third year special teams contributor Jamari Lattimore will start next to A.J. Hawk on the inside while rookie Andy Mulumba fills in for Matthews. The only guys to benefit here are Hawk who should now be a three down player, and the Packers safeties who are going to see more opportunity. Hawk now becomes and every week consideration or at worst an upgraded by week filler until Jones returns.
Indianapolis Colts
With a strong matchup I had considerable expectations for Pat Angerer in week five, and started him in a couple of leagues (over Kevin Burnett in one). Needless to say, his virtual goose egg was a shock. When healthy Angerer is a very good inside linebacker. Against Seattle however, he was sluggish, slow to react, unable to get off block and took poor angles in pursuit. In short he looked horrible and was not the same player I have seen in the past. As a result he was benched at halftime in favor of Kavell Connor who finished the game at the position. Dynasty owners may want to sit tight on Angerer as he will likely be back to form at some point. Redraft owners however, can safely move on.
There has been no official word from the team but it will be a surprise if Conner is not the starter in week six and possibly beyond. He was a three down player in the second half and could proved to be a solid bye week fill in for the next few weeks. San Diego, Denver and Houston are the Colts next three opponents.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are still looking for someone to step up at inside linebacker next to Derrick Johnson. Against Tennessee Akeem Jordan was on the field for just 13 snaps as the coaching staff elected to go with mostly a three safety lineup. Late addition James-Michael Johnson was finally active in week five but saw very little action. It will be interesting to see if his playing time increases over the next couple of games.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins get their bye at the right time for a couple of defenders. Cameron Wake was active for week five but played sparingly due to his sore knee. The bye gives him time off to rest the injury and the club hopes it will allow him to recover fully for their next game. The other player who is happy to see a bye on the calendar is Dannell Ellerbe who was knocked out of the game against his former team with a shoulder injury. Both of these players have injuries that could linger beyond the bye week, but the Dolphins are optimistic that they will be back for week seven. If you are an Ellerbe owner it might be a good idea to start looking for a backup option just in case. Shoulders are often slow to heal and are easily aggravated.
New England Patriots
Sometimes a players history or the history behind a particular situation makes us slow to recognize a changing trend. If this season were business as usual for the Patriots I would likely have written this off for another couple of weeks before giving it any thought. With the offense struggling and the injuries up front however, it is probably prudent to give Devin McCourty some attention. He has been marginal and inconsistent at best since moving to safety last season and had just 4 solo tackles over the first three games this year, but McCourty has gone 14-7 with a couple of forced fumbles over the last two games. It will take a lot more than two games to convince me that he is going to suddenly produce, but a trend has to start somewhere. This week's matchup with the Saints will tell us a lot. To date we have seen William Moore go 7-1, Thomas DeCoud 5-2, Mark Barron 10-3-.5 with a pass defended, Dashon Goldson 9-0 with a PD, Tyrann Mathieu 9-1 with a pick, Yeremiah Bell 6-0 with 2 PD, Chris Clemons 7-1 and even Chris Conte at 6-1 against the Saints. In fact, of the eight starting safeties to face New Orleans only Rashad Johnson and Major Wright have fallen short of 5 solo tackles. If you have a need for a spot start or a potential long term addition, McCourty and Steve Gregory are a pretty good bet for week six.
It has changes so many times this season that I hate to even mention it, but with everyone digging for injury and bye week fillers it is noteworthy that Brandon Spikes once again saw a good numbers of sub package snaps in week five. It seems that this changes on almost a weekly basis so playing Spikes against the Saints is a huge risk. Whoever is out of the nickel this week will probably not need a shower after the game.
New York Giants
The Giants have a way of spreading their frustration to fantasy owners on both sides of the ball. Heading into week five I projected both of the team's safeties to put up strong numbers. Both safeties did, the problem is that Antrel Rolle was not one of the safeties. Rolle spent most of the game covering the slot receivers. Instead it was Will Hill fresh off suspension who lined up at free safety and racked up 11 solo tackles. With the current state of disarray in New York, there is no way to be certain that Hill will be at safety again this week. What we do know is that none of the injured corners are certain to return in week six. If you have a need for a risky short term DB play with big upside, or just have an open roster spot to store a guy with potential, Hill is worth picking up.
Many of us have moved on Spencer Paysinger who has become a solid starter in most twelve team leagues that start three linebackers. Through week five he has been the Giants only full time linebacker. With the addition of Jon Beason that could change soon. Beason was active in week five but saw limited action mostly on special teams. Chances are his role will expand quickly. What that means for Paysinger is uncertain but my guess is that both players will eventually have three down roles. Beason was the odd man out in Carolina but he may well emerge as the Giants best linebacker. One thing is certain, there will be plenty of opportunity for both guys.
Oakland Raiders
In a previous column I stated that Charles Woodson did not look like the playmaker he was in Green Bay. Apparently it just took a little time for him to get comfortable in his new setting. He exploded in the wee hours of Monday morning with a fumble recovery touchdown and a late fourth quarter interception. He is not going to give us big tackle numbers with any consistency and is a risk to score low on any given week, but Woodson is worth the risk as an every week must start.
Kevin Burnett has now hit double digits in tackles twice in the last three games and he has 11+ fantasy points in all three of those games. His 5 tackles over the first two weeks are now a distant memory. Offensive game plans have contributed to Burnett's spike in production but the lack of competition for tackles among Raiders defenders has been a major factor as well. I have never been impressed with Nick Roach and it is no coincidence that Burnett's big numbers have come after the team lost Tyvon Branch to injury. He is obviously not going to produce at that level all the time and has some weak matchups against the Steelers, Giants and Titans over the next six games, but do not hesitate to ride the hot player this week against a strong Chiefs matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles corners Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams each recorded 9 solo tackles in week five. It is not hard to figure out why. The Giants running games was stuffed once again forcing Eli Manning to throw on nearly every down in the second half. There is no reason for owners in corner required leagues to pick up either of these guys. The more interesting statistic from this game is the lack of sacks by the Eagles. Early on there were a lot of people talking about how well Trent Cole and some of the other former 4-3 ends were transitioning to the 3-4. Thus far that has not shown up in the box scores. In fact the only Philadelphia defender with more than 1 sack is end Fletcher Cox. This week the Eagles face another team with a struggling offense in Tampa Bay. Like the Gants, the Buccaneers have been a less than friendly matchup for IDP owners. If you have other solid options I would think twice about starting Mychal Kendricks, DeMeco Ryans or Nate Allen this week.
San Diego Chargers
After playing only 14 snaps in his week four debut, Manti Te'o was on the field for 43 of 60 defensive plays in week five. He finished with 2 tackles and 3 assists in the game. He gave way to Reggie Walker on most of the sub package downs but Te'o actually played better than the numbers suggest. He even performed well in coverage for the most part, leaving room for optimism that he could have an every down role against the Colts this week. Indianapolis has proven to be a solid matchup for our tackle producing IDPs but I would still stop short of suggesting Te'o as a starter until we see him on the field full time. That said, owners in deep leagues could do much worse for a bye week fill in.
Injuries at outside linebacker could factor into the Te'o equation as well. With Melvin Ingram III already on the shelf and Jarret Johnson leaving the Sunday's game with what appeared to be a fairly serious injury, the Chargers may elect to move the versatile Walker outside. He played all four linebacker spots during his time in Arizona and was actually listed as an outside backer on their depth chart. Thomas Keiser and Larry English are the only other viable options on the outside so Walker could see action at both inside and outside backer this week. If he starts ahead of Keiser (which is a possibility) it would almost certainly mean a three down role for Te'o.
Seattle Seahawks
The good news for Bobby Wagner owners is that there is a good reason for his poor numbers in week five. The bad news is that he has an ankle injury. Wagner has fallen short of expectations this season. A Seahawks defense that has been excellent in general is some of the issue. That combined with some weak matchups had him on pace for 60 tackles and 68 assists through week four. A strong week five matchup with the Colts was supposed to be his breakout game. Wagner played through the injury on Sunday but probably should not have as it seriously limited his burst and mobility. With the sore ankle and a schedule that includes the Titans, Cardinals, Rams, Buccaneers and struggling Falcons over the next five games, it may be time to try and move Wagner if you can still get anything for him. Dynasty owners should be patients though. This guy is among the best young linebackers in the league. The numbers will come back eventually, it just may not be until next season.
St. Louis Rams
Coming off a monster game against the Jaguars there are going to be a lot of ambulance chasers rushing to pick up Matt Giordano this week. Out smart those owners by grabbing Darian Stewart instead. The Rams used a nickel base package for much of Sunday's game, with Giordano working as the third safety (nickel DB) in those sets. It was Stewart who replaced T.J. McDonald as the starting strong safety. Stewart has a history of quality production, will work in the box often and barring a change of heart by the coaching staff, will continue to be on the field full time. Giordano was on the field for only 66% of the snaps Sunday and could have an even lesser role this week against the Texans. St. Louis is likely to use a normal 4-3 base scheme this week with Jo-Lonn Dunbar on the field instead of Giordano most of the time.
Tennessee Titans
We have been waiting for a healthy Colin McCarthy to get back on the field for the Titans. He has looked horrible in what little action he has seen this season to date, but the Titans may be forced to give him some reps this week. Weak side backer Zach Brown was forced from the Titans game on Sunday with a knee injury. He tried to play through the pain but was clearly bothered by it. As of Wednesday afternoon there have been no updates on Brown's injury so his availability for week six is anyone's guess at this point. against Kansas City the Titans replaced Brown by going to a big nickel with George Wilson at strong safety and Bernard Pollard moving into the box more often. This week we could see Brown in his normal role, some sort of shuffle getting either McCarthy or rookie Zavier Gooden on the field or a lot more of Wilson. The moral of this story is sit everyone here besides Pollard unless we get some clarification on the situation, and be real careful depending on Brown if he is not 100%.
The season is flying by. Hard to believe we are entering Week 6 already. Soon it will be time to start gearing up for the stretch run. Best of luck to everyone this weekend and as always, be sure to Just Win Baby!
