Week 15 and the field is narrowed as we are one game away from championship week. For those who came up short in Week 14, I feel your pain. Going into Monday night's game I had a 20 point lead with Sean Lee and my opponent had Matt Forte. Lee goes down early in the third quarter and I lose by less than 2 points. Fortunately for my I am still alive in six of my eleven leagues. Hopefully luck will be with us all this week.
Arizona Cardinals
The loss of Tyrann Mathieu will be a big blow to the Cardinals defense and fantasy owners alike. The ripple effect from the injury will likely be minimal in IDP terms. Rashad Johnson will step back into an every down role at free safety with Antoine Cason likely getting the call as the slot corner. Johnson has not been able to parlay an every down role into consistent fantasy production in the past so there is no reason to expect much now. The only one whose numbers could benefit in this situation is Yeremiah Bell who could pick up a few more tackle opportunities.
The bigger story here is the severity for the injury to Mathieu. Anyone who has seen the play knows just how ugly it was. Having happened at this late stage of the season means that Mathieu may not be ready for the beginning of the 2014 campaign. In fact he may not be the same until 2015. This puts dynasty owners in a bad situation. The guy is simply too valuable to throw back but sitting on him for a full season without much production will be a hard pill to swallow.
Arizona faces Tennessee this week. The Titans have been an average at best matchup for tackle producing IDPs in general, and have been only slightly above average when it comes to giving up big plays. Since week nine that have averaged surrendering 2 sacks and 2 turnovers a game. I would not necessarily look to avoid playing Cardinals defenders, just temper expectations if you do.
Atlanta Falcons
For most owners the injury to Thomas DeCoud will have no impact. For those playing in very deep drafted leagues, the concussion he suffered may keep him out for week fifteen. Zeke Motta stepped in at free safety against the Packers and would be in line to start versus Washington if DeCoud is out. Motta managed a mark of 4-2 on 54 snaps in week fourteen. With Washington switching quarterbacks this week it is hard to say what their offense will look like. What we do know is that the Falcons are not good in the front seven and Alfred Morris can provide a lot of tackle opportunity if he can get it going. I like Motta as a sleeper this week.
Sean Weatherspoon was also banged up in week fourteen. He missed about a dozen snaps at the end of the game with a shoulder injury. As of Wednesday afternoon there is has been no update on his status. Even if Weatherspoon does play, the injury is likely to make him think twice about going head to head with Morris. Paul Worrilow has taken over as the Falcons tackle monger anyway, so I would look for a better option than Weatherspoon this week.
Baltimore Ravens
After racking up 9 sacks in the first eight games, Terrell Suggs has not recorded one in any of the last five. You could look at this as if he is due for a big game, except for the fact that Detroit is currently tied with Denver for allowing the fewest sacks in the league at 15.
At a glance it would make sense to see the Lions wide open passing game as a strong matchup for corners. That has not necessarily been the case. In fact starting corners have averaged 3.2 tackles per game against Detroit over the past five games. I would still consider Lardarius Webb a low end CB1 this week though as he will likely draw most of the coverage on Calvin Johnson.
Buffalo Bills
Earlier in the season a matchup with the Jaguars clearly meant a week on the bench for all but the biggest IDP studs. Jacksonville is still not a strong matchup by any stretch but they have been playing well enough of late to at least be average. The fact that Buffalo has been struggling is even further reason to trust Kiko Alonso, Jairus Byrd and maybe even Aaron Williams this week.
Carolina Panthers
It is not going to do us much good this week with Carolina facing the Jets, but it is noteworthy to point out that Quintin Mikell played every snap at strong safety in week fourteen. Robert Lester was active but did not get on the field against the Saints. As a result Mikell finished with 7 solo tackles, a sack and a pass defended. New York has been a poor matchup for safeties but do not overlook the fact that the Panthers have a rematch with New Orleans in week seventeen. If you are looking ahead, grab Mikell and see if he plays every down again this week. If so, he could be a great start in the championship game.
Chicago Bears
Cleveland does not have a prolific running game but they are committed to the run just the same. As a result, six opposing linebackers have gone 7-4 or better against the Browns in the last five weeks. Of those six guys only Vontaze Burfict does not line up on the inside. In fact, the only team in the last five that did not have an inside linebacker with 7 solo stops was the Steelers. In that game Lawrence Timmons went 5-2. The moral of this story is that Jon Bostic could have the most productive game of his rookie season this week. It could also mean another strong outing for Chris Conte and/or Major Wright.
Cincinnati Bengals
With the Bengals in a nickel package on nearly half of their defensive snaps against the Colts, Vincent Rey logged 30 plays in the game. More importantly, he continued to impress. Rey finished the game with a solid 5 solo tackles. Chances are the Bengals will use their nickel often against Pittsburgh this week but starting Rey would be a stretch at best. The point here is that Cincinnati is going to have a hard time keeping this guy out of an every down role at middle linebacker in 2014. If you can get your hands on him in a dynasty league, make it happen.
Dallas Cowboys
Heading into this week one of the things I wanted to see was who lined up at free safety for the Cowboys. J.J. Wilcox remained in a marginal part time role with Jeff Heath playing 70 of 73 snaps. It looks as if Heath has earned the job going forward. With all the injuries at linebacker, Heath could have a lot of opportunity this week; especially if Eddie Lacey is close to healthy. I am not exactly excited about Heath but he could be worth a start for those who are playing matchup options at this point.
Bruce Carter has already been ruled out for week fifteen and Sean Lee is likely to be a question mark right up to game time. Against Chicago Kyle Wilbur got the start on the strong side and finished with a team high 9 solo stops. Meanwhile Ernie Sims came off the bench to fill in at middle backer with Cameron Lawrence replacing Carter on the weak side. Wilbur played just 44 snaps so I have to believe that his numbers were a fluke. If both Carter and Lee sit, Sims becomes and every down MLB with a great matchup. Keep an eye on this one as news comes out later in the week.
Denver Broncos
Duke Ihenacho made the start at strong safety in week fourteen but played just 22 snaps. He is a dynasty keeper but is clearly not going to be healthy enough to help us this year.
The bigger news out of Denver was the benching of Wesley Woodyard. He played just ten snaps against Tennessee after being replaced by Paris Lenon. Woodyard missed a couple of games earlier in the season after suffering a stinger and has been inconsistent at best in the games since. Lenon has been productive in the past but he did not play full time either. The Chargers are an excellent matchup, so if we knew that someone would play every down they would be a quality start. Unfortunately this situation dictates that we avoid it all together.
Green Bay Packers
Brad Jones ended his three game streak with 6 or more solo tackles in week fourteen. His two down role surely contributed and a poor matchup with the Falcons did not help either. Unfortunately the formula is going to be the same this week. In the Cowboys last five games only one opposing linebacker has put up more than 5 solo stops. At best Jones is a risky play in this one.
Indianapolis Colts
Despite their struggled in the win column the Texans have remained an excellent matchup for our tackle producing IDPs. Twice in the past three weeks opposing middle linebackers have reached double digits in solo tackles. In the first meeting of these two teams, Pat Angerer finished at 7-5 with a pass defended while safeties LaRon Landry and Antoine Bethea were 8-1 and 7-1 respectively. Angerer has been replaced in the starting lineup and is no longer a factor but Landry, Bethea and probably Jerrell Freeman are all players that should be in our lineups this week.
Miami Dolphins
When Miami traveled to New England in week eight it was one of those games with backwards box scores. That week Miami players were credited with 19 solo tackles and 52 assists. We can safely expect the Miami stats crew to be much better than that. What we need to consider is that Danelle Ellerbe was 2-9 in that game while Phillip Wheeler finished at 1-7, Chris Clemons wa 3-7 and Reshad Jones 0-7. Reverse those numbers and you will have a closer idea of what to expect from your Miami players this week.
New Orleans Saints
For those owners looking for a matchup based LB3 play this week, consider David Hawthorne against the Rams. He has not been playing every down but has been on the field for about 85% of the team's defensive snaps in recent weeks. Hawthorne has been inconsistent but has given us several solid games including 6 solo stops in two of the last four weeks. The matchup is what makes this a particularly interesting sleeper play. Over the Rams last five games, six linebackers have posted 6 or more solo stops with five others reaching 5 solo tackles. Hawthorne may not blow up for a monster games but he should give us quality LB3 numbers at the least.
New York Giants
Jon Beason failed to take full advantage of a great matchup last week but he did manage double digit points for the third time in four games. Next up is a date with the Seahawks who have also been a quality matchup. Over the past four weeks Paul Worrilow, Curtis Lofton and Navorro Bowman have put up an average of just over 17 fantasy points with this matchup. I like Beason's chance of adding another double digit outing.
Someone built a fire under Justin Tuck in week twelve and they have been adding fuel to it since. Tuck has exploded for 12 tackles, 3 assists and a whopping 7 sacks over the past three games. Seattle is not necessarily a good matchup when it comes to sacks but Tuck's tackle numbers alone make him worthy of starting consideration. For the first time since 2010 he looks like the guy who finished at 48-27-11 that season.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Vikings may be without Adrian Peterson this week but that does not mean they will be less of a quality matchup. Toby Gerhart is a no nonsense power runner who will provide plenty of opportunity for DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jason Worilds has exploded for 15+ fantasy points in three of the past four games. In the last two weeks alone he has 14 solo stops and 4 sacks. That will have a lot of owners looking to put him in their lineup this week. Before you make that move consider these facts. Only four teams have allowed fewer sacks this season than Cincinnati, and in the first meeting between the Steelers and Bengals, Worilds, LaMarr Woodley and Jarvis Jones combined to go 8-2-0.
San Diego Chargers
I have been pimping Richard Marshall for the past few weeks and will mention him yet again. In his three recent starts Marshall is 17-2 with three passes defended. It would be nice to pick up some big play points but those tackle numbers from a corner are hard to ignore. If you need another reason to consider Marshall this week, how about the fact that in the last two weeks Marcus Cooper, Sean Smith, Alteraun Verner and Jason McCourty have combined to go 26-2 with 5 asses defended and a pick against Denver. All four of those guys posted at least 5 solo stops.
Washington Redskins
There has been no worse matchup for tackle producing IDPs this season than the Falcons. London Fletcher and Perry Riley are guys we should look to replace in our lineups this week.
There are a few things I have not been able to get to this week but reality rears its ugly head and I am out of time. Hopefully you will all be back for the championship edition next week. Best of luck to you and as always, Just Win Baby!
