"The cosmos speaks in patterns" - Roger von Oech (paraphrase of Heraclitus)

"Luck is the residue of design" - Branch Rickey (Brooklyn Dodgers GM - integrated baseball)

"Our business is winning" - Bill Parcells (Ex-Giants/Patriots/Jets/Cowboys HC, MIA exec and Hall of Famer)

The subject matter of ETTG is IDP with an emphasis on Dynasty leagues. Ear To The Ground was chosen for this column's title to convey a sense of detecting rumblings in the distance... an ability essential to project a prospect from college to pro and rookie to veteran. It will consist of three sections: Team Reports (Watchlist), a Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter, and a new section… The Lateral (rogue, guerilla offensive coverage). The emphasis here will be on the impact positions of LB, DE and S. Exceptional DTs and CBs will be noted for leagues that differentiate DE/DT and S/CB. Dynasty content is geared towards youth. Like most successful working rosters that employ a blend of production and potential, there will be a balance of rookie and veteran coverage in the mix. While by the nature of much IDP coverage new names will bubble up to the surface from week to week, ETTG will try to identify key players early on and provide a synoptic overview for the whole season as it unfolds.

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Welcome to season number ten of ETTG, and best of luck this year (but see the middle quote that heads this column above). This installment (and the previous one) are special edition dynasty studies for defense and offense, respectively, before returning to regular in-season  programming…

Positional, Age & Pedigree Matrix (Defense)

A Summing Up - Changing of the Guard?

Dynasty players know intuitively that in general it is a good thing to target young, high pedigree prospects, but this study aims to make this loose body of knowledge more precise, rigorous and quantitative.

It is always a good habit when examining the top 20 (or whatever sample size you choose to put under the data-scope) to try and guesstimate who is legit and who is a pretender. Which skill position players are likely to remain from the previous season's final standings, and who will be jettisoned? Which ones currently outside the positional leader standings have a shot to penetrate it, and who will remain isolated outside?

Take care to look at games played (and missed) in this context. It is also hoped that the below breakdowns by position, age and pedigree will provide some clues in your own research.

There are three sets of top 20 standings (three positions of DL/LB/DB for '12, with data organized by position, rank, name, NFL team, age, draft pedigree, college, height & weight, games played and points scored) which can be scanned and assimilated fairly rapidly.

More fertile ground for data mining would be looking at measurables (for positional physical prototype info), as well as college pedigree (Div I, small school, etc.), but these will be left as a suggestion for further research and an exercise for interested readers. Also, 40 times (not included here) can be instructive for positional breakdown, though also misleading at times.

You can also look at the age data and breakdown not only WITHIN a position to see where a certain positional player is likely to be in his learning curve (ramping up, peaking, cresting or twilight), but also to see if there are INTER-POSITIONAL differences... i.e. - are there identifiable and recognizable differential patterns of developmental rate curves BETWEEN positions? Are there pedigree distribution differences in the top 20 across the respective positions? And so on...

This is obviously a crazy small sample size (one season), and not too much of the INTER-POSITIONAL differences in terms of age developmental and life cycles and pedigree distribution at the top alluded to above should be inferred solely from this study. With the pro game evolving so rapidly, though, it is unclear how relevant methodical and systematic back-tests of what happened decades ago would be to the present? The intent here is definitely to track this type of information going forward, to see if some of the trends/patterns observed and noted below hold up, or prove to be chalked up as historical aberrations and anomalies, statistical randomness and a case of finding spurious, unwarranted connections where they don't exist.

It will also be interesting to track going forward whether any appreciable impact is felt in the longevity column due to potential ongoing advances in sports medicine (surgery and rehab therapy), nutritional science, training regimens, etc.

The numbers should be allowed to speak for themselves, however, some interstitial commentary has been included to provide contextual perspective and also to draw out potential implications/inferences that some data may SEEM to suggest and be pointing towards. Taking a step back, so to speak, can enable a more bird's eye view perspective of the mosaic. Using a historical lens to broadly survey the dynasty statistical landscape can lead to discovering more oases (plural of oasis) of coherent signal from an otherwise roiling informational maelstrom within the sea of noise, or fuel for your pattern recognition engine, during long range flyovers.

* Why Top 20? For one reason, in 10 team leagues that yields potentially two starters for every team, as well as falling players to target in bigger (12/14/16 team) leagues. Also, there tends to be a lack of difference makers after that point, with the gap between IDPs appreciably smaller and increasingly less important. While examinations that go deeper in numbers would yield different answers to different questions, this study is not interested in mediocrity, but represents a historical and statistical attempt to identify potential defining characteristics and hallmarks of excellence.   

2012 Defensive Linemen

'12 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Position, Age ('12), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. J.J. Watt, HOU, DE, 23, 1.11, Wisconsin (6'5" 290), 16 - 235
2. Greg Hardy, CAR, DE, 24, 6.6, Mississippi, (6'4" 290), 15 - 136
3. Cameron Wake, MIA, DE, 30, UFA, Penn State (6'3" 260), 16 - 136
4. Charles Johnson, CAR, DE, 26, 3.19, Georgia (6'2" 285), 16 - 134.8
5. Geno Atkins, CIN, DT, 24, 4.22, Georgia (6'1" 300), 16 - 131.8 
6. Jason Pierre-Paul, NYG, DE, 23, 1.15, South Florida (6'5" 280), 16 - 130.3
7. Elvis Dumervil, DEN, DE, 28, 4.29, Louisville (5'11" 260), 16 - 127.5
8. Cameron Jordan, NO, DE, 23, 1.24, California (6'4” 285), 16 - 122.5
9. Mario Williams, BUF, DE, 27, 1.1, North Carolina St. (6'7" 290) 16 - 122.3
10. Michael Johnson, CIN, DE, 25, 3.6, Georgia Tech (6'7" 270), 16 - 121.8 
11. John Abraham, ATL, DE, 34, 1.13, South Carolina (6'4" 260) 16 - 121 
12. Julius Peppers, CAR, DE, 32, 1.2, North Carolina (6'6" 285), 16 - 121
13. Muhammad Wilkerson, NYJ, DE, 23, 1.30, Temple (6'4" 315), 16 - 120.3
14. Calais Campbell, ARI, DE, 26, 2.19, Miami (6'8" 300), 13 - 119.3 
15. Carlos Dunlap, CIN, DE, 23, 2.22, Florida (6'6" 280), 14 - 118
16. Lamarr Houston, OAK, DE, 25, 2.12, Texas (6'3" 300), 16 - 113.3
17. Jared Allen, MIN, DE, 30, 4.30, Idaho St. (6'6" 270), 16 - 112.5 
18. Derrick Morgan, TEN, DE, 23, 1.16, Georgia Tech (6'3" 270), 16 - 109.5 
19. Paul Kruger, BAL, DE, 26, 2.25, Utah (6'4" 270), 15 - 107.3 
20. Chris Clemons, SEA, DE, 31, UFA, Georgia (6'3" 255), 16 - 107

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 235 - 121.8 = 113.2 pts
• #11 & #20 Scorer... 121 - 107 = 14 pts

The separation at the top between #1 Watt and #10 DL Michael Johnson was by far the largest gulf (more of an abyss) relative to the other positions (LB and DB). Watt lapped most of his competition. To put his scoring outburst in perspective, #16 DL Lamarr Houston’s 113.3 pts was approximately the same as the DIFFERENCE between Watts 235 pts and Houston (113.2 pts). Beyond even the top 10, the differences begin to become more compressed and indistinguishable, and therefore harder to find difference makers (the separation between #11 DL and #20 DL was the lowest of the three positions). 

Positional Breakdown

• DE - 19
• DT - 1

Lends credence to the rule of thumb that you generally don't want to draft DTs high (if at all in leagues where you aren’t required to). The above represents greater dominance by DEs than seen in some previous iterations of this study. This can be further broken down and subdivided into...

• 4-3 DE - 15
• 3-4 DE - 4

Ditto for the tip that 3-4 DEs are usually not as productive as their 4-3 counterparts. 

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 6
• (24-26) - 7
• (27-29) - 2
• (30-32) - 4
• (33-35) - 1
• (36+) - 0

Watt and Jason Pierre-Paul led the charge for the youngest demographic, though all six turn 24 this year and could swell the ranks of the second (24-26) category. It awaits to be seen how many second year and rookie members of the classes of 2012 and 2013, if any, can backfill the youngest slot. Historically, DL is a position that usually takes a few years of physical maturation and technical development to play at the highest levels. Another factor is that the pool of potential elite, blue chip pass rushing DL could be shrinking. With the proliferation of 3-4 schemes around the league, more collegiate DEs are being converted to OLB.

Third year St. Louis DE Robert Quinn was Defensive Player of the Week in the opening stanza, with a 3 sack, 2 FF outburst. He cracked the double digit sack mark in 2012 in a tempered soph breakout, but looks like he is ready to elevate his game to another level. He has elite pass rusher upside, and if he fulfills his formidable potential, to emerge as one of the best in the NFL. 

Chandler Jones comes from a very athletic family (older brother Art is a DE for the Ravens and Jon a UFC Light Heavyweight Champion) and at 23 probably has the best chance from the class of ’12 to crack the top 20 and represent the youngest demographic. Third and fifth overall rookie DEs Dion Jordan and Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah (sack and a half sack in their debuts, respectively) are among the top pass rushing DE prospects from the class of ’13, also athletic prodigies and most likely to find their way into the top 20 in the future, but both could be at least a year away. Jordan’s progress has been slowed while rehabbing from shoulder surgery and he is unlikely to have more than a situational role as a rookie (similar to Aldon Smith in 2011). Ansah is extremely raw (more than JPP coming out of South Florida), only having played football for a few years, like second round Bengals  DE Margus Hunt. Both Ansah and Hunt have massive upside, but are older than typical rookies (24 and 26 respectively), being foreign born athletes with late starts being introduced to the game in America.

As with the DB position (see below), five DL are in the 30+ club.

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 14
• (Round 4-7) - 4
• Undrafted Free Agent - 2

By Round

• 1 - 8
• 2 - 4
• 3 - 2
• 4 - 3
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 0
• UFA - 2

Pedigree figures prominently in the 2012 DL scoring leaders, as in many positions on both sides of the ball. Of the top 20 DL, 14 were drafted in the first three rounds (and 17 in the first four rounds).  

*  Greg Hardy (#2 DL) missed one game, the next defensive linemen that missed time were all the way down to #14 (Calais Campbell - three missed games) and #15 (Carlos Dunlap - two missed games)… #19 Paul Kruger also missed one game. 

2012 Linebackers

'12 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Position, Age ('12), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Daryl Washington, ARI, ILB, 26, 2.15, TCU (6'2" 235), 16 - 238.5
2. Luke Kuechly, CAR, MLB, 21, 1.9, Boston College (6'3" 240), 16 - 234.5
3. Paul Posluszny, JAX, MLB, 28, 2.2, Penn State (6'2" 240), 16 - 223.3 
4. London Fletcher, WAS, ILB, 37, UFA, John Carroll (5'10" 240), 16 - 220.8  
5. James Laurinaitis, STL, MLB, 26, 2.3, Ohio State (6'2" 245) , 16 - 218
6. Jerod Mayo, NE, WLB, 26, 1.10, Tennessee (6'1" 240), 16 - 212
7. Chad Greenway, MIN, SLB, 29, 1.17, Iowa (6'2" 240), 16 - 210.5 
8. Lavonte David, TB, WLB, 22, 2.26, Nebraska (6'1" 235), 16 - 208.8 
9. Bobby Wagner, SEA, MLB, 22, 2.15, Utah State (6'0" 240), 16 - 203.8
10. Navorro Bowman, SF, ILB, 24, 3.27, Penn State (6'0" 240), 16 - 202.8
11. Derrick Johnson, KC, ILB, 30, 1.15, Texas (6'3" 240), 16 - 202.3 
12. Jerrell Freeman, IND, ILB, 26, UFA, Mary Hardin-Baylor (6'0" 235), 16 - 201.3 
13. Von Miller, DEN, SLB, 23, 1.2, Texas A&M (6'3" 250), 16 - 198.3
14. Lawrence Timmons, PIT, ILB, 26, 1.15, Florida State (6'1" 235), 16 - 197.3
15. Karlos Dansby, MIA, ILB, 31, 2.1, Auburn (6'4" 245), 16 - 196.8
16. Russell Allen, JAX, WLB, 26, UFA, San Diego State (6'3" 235), 16 - 192.3
17. Patrick Willis, SF, ILB, 27, 1.11, Mississippi (6'1" 240) 16 - 188.5
18. Zach Brown, TEN, WLB, 23, 2.20, North Carolina (6'1" 250), 16 - 188.3
19. Wesley Woodyard, DEN, WLB, 26, UFA, Kentucky (6'0" 230), 15 - 186 
20. Jo-Lonn Dunbar, STL, WLB, 27, UFA, Boston College (6'0" 230), 16 - 184

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 238.5 - 202.8 = 35.7 pts
• #11 & #20 Scorer... 202.3 - 184 =  18.3 pts

The separation at the top was the lowest of the three positions… though close to DB. The difference between #11 and #20 identical with DB, both slightly more than DL. Top LB Washington will begin the 2013 season with a four game suspension, likely dropping him completely out of the top 20 (though he could perform like the #1 LB once he is reinserted into the starting lineup in October).      

Positional Breakdown

• MLB/ILB - 12
• OLB - 8

Generally, three-down MLB/ILBs preferred to OLBs (with exceptions, of course). The distribution of inside and outside was a little closer here than some previous versions of this study. If two more OLBs had made it in 2012, it would have been an even split. This can be further broken down and subdivided into...

• MLB - 4
• ILB - 8

All four MLBs are in the top 10 (with three of them in the top five). Carolina phenom Luke Kuechly looks like the next dominant MLB, and ready to ascend to the consensus best overall LB in the game since recently retired, future first ballot Hall of Famer Ray Lewis was in his prime. Fellow class of 2012 MLB prodigy Bobby Wagner is not far behind in his tantalizing combo of athleticism, talent and productivity potential.

The larger percentage of ILBs relative to MLBs in the top 20 goes hand in hand with the aforementioned proliferation of 3-4 defenses around the league. With the Cowboys bucking that trend (converting from a 3-4 to a 4-3 base alignment, recruiting former Tampa Bay Cover Two architect Monte Kiffin as DC), Sean Lee becomes a MLB. He just signed a large extension, and if the snake bit emerging star can avoid injury that has sidelined him two years in a row (not counting a torn ACL at Penn State), he is destined to become a premier MLB. Star ILB Brian Cushing made a strong return from his 2012 ACL injury. On the heels of a six year, $55 million extension ($21 million guaranteed), he made a game changing play. It would have been hard for him to have the first pick six of his career at a more opportune time. J.J. Watt and Cushing are the heart and soul of the defense, and the Texans stop unit was not the same when Cushing went down.

• 4-3 WLB - 6
• 4-3 SLB - 2
• 3-4 OLB - 0

Generally 4-3 WLBs are preferred among non-MLB/ILBs. As with Kuechly and Wagner on the inside, there has been an infusion of young talent at the position from the class of 2012. Lavonte David may already be the best WLB in the game (he was among the league leaders in solo tackles) and is certainly the best in Tampa Bay since Derrick Brooks. Zach Brown is one of the top size/speed LB physical specimens in the game, capable of a legit 4.4 40 at 250 lbs. As with Sean Lee, the Cowboys conversion to the Tampa Bay Cover Two also will positively impact Bruce Carter if he can just avoid the training room. The former ILB inherits the Derrick Brooks role in the scheme, and he has the athleticism, speed and talent to emerge as one of the top WLBs in the NFL. Sean Weatherspoon also has the right stuff to crack the top 20 if healthy, but he missed three games in 2012, and has missed a combined eight in his three seasons.        

Typically SLBs are shunned in IDP leagues, but Chad Greenway and Von Miller are the exception and among the best OLBs in the game. The Titans have been raving about SLB Akeem Ayers in the offseason and expect him to take a big step in 2013.

It is shocking to not find a single 3-4 OLB in the top 20. In big play slanted scoring systems, of course, pass rushing LBs like Aldon Smith, Clay Matthews and the up and coming Justin Houston (3 sacks Sunday, Defensive Player of the Week with Robert Quinn, who also had 3 sacks) become much more valuable, and likely to penetrate the top 20 like they routinely do opposing backfields. Ryan Kerrigan is underrated despite coming off a Pro Bowl alternate campaign. If bookend Brian Orakpo can avoid injury, that could help propel him into the rarified 10-12+ sack level.           

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 5
• (24-26) - 8
• (27-29) - 4
• (30-32) - 2
• (33-35) - 0
• (36+) - 1

LB mirrors the development cycle of RBs in a few respects. Just as RB has been called the most instinctive of the skill positions, and therefore traditionally and historically amenable to immediate success, about two thirds of the top 20 fall into the two youngest age brackets. Similarly paralleling its offensive counterpart or doppleganger, LB, like RB, is also a position not a stranger to violent injury and short careers (only three LBs are in the 30+, “geezer“ demographic).

As older talents taper off and dwindle in football senior citizen representation, they are inexorably supplanted by younger replacements (a few already mentioned in the position breakdown above). The class of 2013 on paper doesn’t look like it will have as big an immediate impact as the stellar class of 2012. However, other than Kuechly, who was touted as one of the best MLB prospects in years, in retrospect, Wagner, David and Brown were not as heralded or accompanied by the same level of fanfare, before exploding onto the NFL scene. The moral is, several LB prospects from this class could also rise to unexpected heights.

Some inside candidates ticketed for potential future IDP stardom include consensus top MLB/ILB prospect Arthur Brown (unexpectedly not slated to start right away, but the handpicked eventual successor to Ray Lewis), multi-talented MLB/ILB Kiko Alonso (had a strong debut with a handful of tackles, including a FF and FR) and devastating hitter Jon Bostic (has to wait his turn for vet stopgap D.J. Willliams, looks like the next in line for the Chicago MLB star factory and heir apparent to retired Brian Urlacher).

The top 4-3 LB in the draft (and only first rounder) is OLB Alec Ogle tree (also had a strong debut with 7 solo tackles, also nearly missing a diving INT). A converted former safety, he can pass rush like a DE, has the sideline-to-sideline range and tackling prowess of a WLB and the coverage ability and ball skills of a DB. Jeff Fisher isn’t prone to hyperbole, and has already compared him to Keith Bulluck (another converted safety resume, like Urlacher) and Patrick Willis. Sio Moore is also a promising 4-3 OLB with outstanding athleticism and the versatility to pass rush, tackle in space and cover.

Pass rushing 3-4 OLBs to keep an eye on in big play scoring formats include Barkevious Mingo (athleticism and production disconnect could have been related to collegiate scheme and how he was used within it), Jarvis Jones (top playmaker at his position in the draft, ran a slow 40 which caused him to fall in the draft eerily like Terrell Suggs, successor to James Harrison) and Bjoern Werner (who has a similar profile to DEs Ansah and Hunt as a foreigner relatively new to the game - while he isn’t as new to the game and doesn’t have that kind of elite athleticism-based upside, he still has substantial room for growth… Ryan Kerrigan is an oft-invoked comp player cited by scouts).

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 15
• (Round 4-7) - 0
• Undrafted Free Agent - 5

By Round

• 1 - 7
• 2 - 7
• 3 - 1
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 0
• 6 - 0
• 7 - 0
• UFA - 5

In an incredibly improbable pedigree distribution of the top 20 LBs in 2012 (not just that 75% were drafted in the first three rounds), there were ZERO non-UFA LBs after the third round (and only one after the second round).

* Also somewhat improbably, Wesley Woodyard was the only LB in the top 20 to miss even one game.

2012 Defensive Backs

'12 Rank, Name, NFL Team, Position, Age ('12), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight, Games Played

1. Charles Tillman, CHI, CB, 31, 2.3, Louisiana-Lafayette (6'1" 195) 15 - 211.5
2. Morgan Burnett, GB, FS, 23, 3.7, Georgia Tech (6'1" 210), 16 - 191.3 
3. Richard Sherman, SEA, CB, 24, 5.23, Stanford (6'3" 195), 16 - 186.5 
4. Roman Harper, NO, SS, 30, 2.11, Alabama (6'1" 200), 16 - 180.3
5. Eric Weddle, SD, FS, 27, 2.5, Utah (5'1" 200), 16 - 179.5
6. Cortland Finnegan, STL, CB, 28, 7.7, Samford (5'1" 190), 16 - 179.5
7. Harrison Smith, MIN, FS, 23, 1.29, Notre Dame (6'2" 215), 16 - 178  
8. Reshad Jones, MIA, SS, 24, 5.32, Georgia (6'1" 215), 16 - 176.3
9. Antoine Winfield, MIN, CB, 35, 1.23, Ohio State (5'9" 180) 16 - 174.5
10. Ronde Barber, TB, FS, 37, 3.6, Virginia (5'10" 185), 16 - 173.3 
11. Jason McCourty, TEN, CB, 25, 6.30, Rutgers (6'0" 190), 16 - 172.3 
12. LaRon Landry, NYJ, SS, 28, 1.6, LSU (6'0" 225), 16 - 171.3
13. Janoris Jenkins, STL, CB, 24, 2.7, North Alabama (5'10" 195), 15 - 170.8
14. Tim Jennings, CHI, CB, 29, 2.30, Georgia (5'8" 180), 14 - 168.8
15. DeAngelo Hall, WAS, CB, 29, 1.8, Virginia Tech (5'10" 195) 16 - 163.5 
16. Cary Williams, BAL, CB, 28, 7.22, Washburn (6'1" 190), 16 - 162  
17. Ryan Clark, PIT, FS, 33, UFA, LSU (5'11" 205), 15 - 161.5  
18. Devin McCourty, NE, FS, 25, 1.27, Rutgers (5'10" 195), 16 - 160.8
19. Stevie Brown, NYG, SS, 25, 7.44, Michigan (6'0" 220), 16 - 160
20. Thomas DeCoud, ATL, FS, 27, 3.35, California (6'2" 200), 16 - 154

Difference Between

• #1 & #10 Scorer... 211.5 - 173.3 = 38.2 pts
• #11 & #20 Scorer... 172.3 - 154 = 18.3 pts

As noted, separation at the top comparable to LB. All three positions were similar between #11 and #20.   

Positional Breakdown

• S - 11
• CB - 9

Sometimes safeties are viewed as more important than CBs, but clearly good CBs can be as good as the best safeties (data from previous studies have also supported this). Charles Tillman had a Defensive Player of the Year-type of campaign in 2013, finishing with a surreal 10 FFs!! Richard Sherman, Cortland Finnegan and Jason McCourty are all outstanding in coverage, can make plays on the ball and are stout in run support.      

This can be further broken down and subdivided into...

• SS - 4
• FS - 7

While it used to be conventional wisdom that SS is a more coveted position than FS among the safeties, that old canard is increasingly getting obliterated and relegated to the realm of mythology. Old school, run stuffing specialist, in-the-box strong safeties like David Fulcher and Roy Williams have become dinosaurs in danger of extinction in the age of aerial predominance. The bottom line is that the days of having rigidly demarcated strong and free safety roles are a legacy of a bygone era, and they are increasingly evolving into more interchangeable roles, blurring former distinctions no longer relevant.

Strong safeties need to cover and free safeties need to tackle in run support, or they will become mismatches waiting to be exploited by savvy OCs. Late career Williams was a cautionary tale for this development (frequently replaced in obvious passing situations due to grave coverage flaws towards the end of his tenure in Dallas). Contemporary strong safety Roman Harper could be gradually phased out by prized 2013 mid-first rookie Kenny Vaccaro, who can do everything from covering slot receivers to blowing up ball carriers in the run game.  

Morgan Burnett has lined up at strong and free safety, and is a poster child for this kind of athletic versatility and positional skill set flexibility. Eric Weddle is a free safety also in this vanguard of multitalented, complete safeties with well rounded games. Same with good looking 2012 rookie Harrison Smith. Strong safeties Reshad Jones and former fifth overall Eric Berry also fit this profile.

Seattle has the consensus top secondary in the NFL, and Sherman’s teammates on the back end are textbook examples of this paradigm shift. While Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas are ostensibly strong and free safety, with the former often playing closer to the LOS to help in run support and the latter frequently in a one deep look with his telepathic instincts and extraordinary sideline-to-sideline range… Chancellor can cover if called upon to do so and Thomas can tackle in the open field when needed.

Age Breakdown

• (21-23) - 2
• (24-26) - 6
• (27-29) - 7
• (30-32) - 2
• (33-35) - 2
• (36+) - 1

The DB position had by far the fewest number populating the youngest demographic during the 2012 season this study examined (relative to DL and LB). Rather than make a possibly spurious attempt to map developmental cycle considerations onto what may be merely a cyclical phenomenon (demographic breakdowns from previous seasons have not consistently revealed this pattern), this fact will be viewed with a different lens and from an alternate perspective.

This could be simply a matter of the past several draft classes not being defined by a volume number of exceptional DBs? Fortunately, the cavalry could be arriving in the form of the class of 2013, which looks like it could sport the most talented safety class in several years. Consensus best-in-class Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Reid are elite athletes with blue chip (for a safety) mid-first round pedigree. Both were as good as advertised, physical presences in the secondary, had impact debuts and took all the defensive snaps. They each had a handful of tackles, Vaccaro deflected a pass in the end zone that led to the game-ending INT against the Falcons, Reid had an INT. Matt Elam and Jonathan Cyprien are also fine athletes and were taken back-to-back at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round. Collectively they can check all the boxes DCs require for a contemporary interchangeable skill set safety - the ability to run, hit and cover.

Second rounder D.J. Swearinger, third rounders T.J. McDonald (another strong debut with handful of tackles and physical presence in the secondary), Shawn Williams and J.J. Wilcox and fourth rounder Shamarko Thomas all have the ability to start in the next year or two (McDonald already is), and in some cases play at a high level. This could also be an exceptional year for rookie CBs. Top 10 overall pick Dee Milliner, D.J. Hayden, Desmond Trufant, Xavier Rhodes, as well as college teammates Darius Slay and Jonathan Banks should all start immediately. John Norton’s cogent and incisive “rookie CB rule” will have a half dozen or more applications and case studies in 2013.                  

Pedigree Breakdown

• (Round 1-3) - 13
• (Round 4-7) - 6
• Undrafted Free Agent - 1

By Round

• 1 - 5
• 2 - 5
• 3 - 3
• 4 - 0
• 5 - 2
• 6 - 1
• 7 - 3
• UFA - 1

The concentration of higher pedigree prospects among the top DBs is similar in the first three rounds to DL (13 of 20), but is thereafter more evenly distributed than both DL and LB. 

* Top DB Charles Tillman missed one game. The next DB to miss a game was Janoris Jenkins (#13). Ryan Clark (#17) missed the season opener in Denver (the altitude caused a catastrophic complication for his sickle cell trait in 2007, requiring his spleen and gall bladder to be removed). Tillman’s bookend Tim Jennings (#14) missed two games. 

Thanks for reading Ear to the Ground. All comments or questions invited - Magaw@Footballguys.com.

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