The Profit: Week 14

WEEK 12 PICKS

* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.

Houston (-3.5) at Jacksonville
I’m going with the old adage here of never laying points with a team that hasn’t won since the New York Mets were still mathematically alive. And one more thing. There’s a roughly 100% chance that anyone who watches this game has called 1-800-GAMBLER at some point in their lives.
Pick: Jaguars

New York Jets (-2.5) vs. Oakland
Well, on the one hand they’ve probably already won more games than their fans expected at the beginning of the season. On the other hand, their playoff hopes die a little more each week and their young athletic quarterback has completely fizzled out. But you almost can’t blame them. I mean it’s tough for a coastal team from the old AFL to compete when it shares a local TV market with such an historic franchise. OH EM GEE DID YOU SEE WHAT I DID THERE?!?
Pick: Jets

Baltimore (-7.5) vs. Minnesota
Oh good, the Ravens are back and they’re safe to trust again! Cmon people we’re better than this. More than a touchdown favorite? This is like the Coyote trusting Acme products. Do you want to fall off a cliff and become a puff of smoke? WELL?!?
Pick: Vikings

Philadelphia (-2.5) vs. Detroit
A fantasy bonanza in the first week of fantasy playoffs? It’s like the Super Bowl came early! (only half kidding)
Pick: Lions

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. Miami
The Steelers season all but ended last Thursday night, but this smells like a classic “we’re still alive!” games for them. Before it all comes crashing down on them again next week.
Pick: Steelers

Green Bay (-7.5) vs. Atlanta
Did Atlanta find something last week? Probably not. But whatever the Packers had, they have completely lost it.
Pick: Falcons

Cincinnati (-5.5) vs. Indianapolis
Toughest game of the week for me, we’ll call it the Angelina Jolie Bowl as both of these teams can go in either direction on any given week. The Bengals are a more complete team, but their big strength defensively (pass rush) can be offset by the skills of Andrew Luck. Take the points.
Pick: Colts

Kansas City (-3.5) at Washington
All of a sudden, people are down on the Chiefs because of losses to Denver and a loss to San Diego. But do you realize just how bad Washington is???
Pick: Chiefs

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. Buffalo
Every time I start to think that Tampa is one of the better “bad record” teams in the league, reality smacks me in the face and I realize that I’m saying the fat chick has a terrific personality.
Pick: Bills

New England (-11.5) vs. Cleveland
Tell me one thing. Who will cover Josh Gordon?
Pick: Browns

Denver (-12.5) vs. Tennessee
Tennessee can slow the Denver rushing attack. Ok, so Peyton will throw six touchdowns? Or seven? I get that it’s a lot of points, but…well…it’s the Titans
Pick: Broncos

San Diego (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
Giants get to travel 3,000 miles in a lost season to face a team that absolutely feasts on defenses like theirs. This one shouldn’t be close.
Pick: Chargers

Arizona (-6.5) vs. Saint Louis
This one’s simple. Arizona is coming off a loss, and is just a much MUCH better team.
Pick: Cardinals

San Francisco (-2.5) vs. Seattle
At first, this looked ludicrous. The Seahawks are coming off by far their best effort of the season, a thorough dismantling of the Saints on national television. Then I realized the letdown effect is almost inevitable, even playing against a divisional foe. This is the Niners’ last hurrah for the division title that is inevitably going northwest.
Pick: Niners

New Orleans (-3.5) vs. Carolina
Once again, the Saints are not a team to be trifled with. We all saw just how awful they looked a week ago. And we’ve seen Carolina playing a little bit over their heads. Which is why I’m almost afraid for the Panther DBs in this game. Drew Brees was so bad last week, that might play so well that he actually kills people on the Panthers. Like, they won’t handle how well he plays and they’ll die from it. Doesn’t even make sense.
Pick: Saints

Dallas (-0.5) at Chicago
Romo is on a mission to prove me right after all!
Pick: Cowboys

BEST BETS: Jets, Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys
LOCK: Kansas City Chiefs

RECORD

LAST WEEK

Overall: 11-5 (68%)
Best Bets: 4-0 (100%)
Lock of the Week: 1-0

YEAR TO DATE

Overall: 101-87 (53%)
Best Bets: 22-30 (42%)
Lock of the Week: 6-7 (46%)

POWER RANKINGS

Team Name W/L (Prv)

1. Seahawks 11-1 (1)
2. Broncos 10-2 (2)
3. Patriots 9-3 (3)
4. Panthers 9-3 (5)
5. Chiefs 9-3 (6)
6. Saints 9-3 (4)
7. 49ers 8-4 (7)
8. Bengals 8-4 (8)
9. Cowboys 7-5 (10)
10. Cardinals 7-5 (9)
11. Colts 8-4 (11)
12. Lions 7-5 (12)
13. Eagles 7-5 (14)
14. Ravens 6-6 (15)
15. Bears 6-6 (13)
16. Titans 5-7 (16)
17. Packers 5-6-1 (17)
18. Chargers 5-7 (18)
19. Rams 5-7 (19)
20. Steelers 5-7 (20)
21. Dolphins 6-6 (23)
22. Jets 5-7 (21)
23. Giants 5-7 (24)
24. Browns 4-8 (22)
25. Redskins 3-9 (25)
26. Falcons 3-9 (31)
27. Bills 4-8 (26)
28. Bucs 3-9 (27)
29. Vikings 3-8-1 (29)
30. Jaguars 3-9 (30)
31. Raiders 4-8 (28)
32. Texans 2-10 (32)