The Profit: Week 11

WEEK 11 PICKS

* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at Tennessee
After that performance a week ago against one of the league’s worst teams, one has to assume these guys will come together to erase that pathetic performance from their collective memories. Ahh…AHHHHH? SEE WHAT I DID THERE?!?
Pick: Colts

Atlanta (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
BREAK UP THE BUCS!!! Just kidding. They’re still not good. But as bad as they are, I can’t in good conscience lay points with a team as bad as Atlanta on the road.
Pick: Bucs

Buffalo (-1.5) vs. New York Jets
They got this one backwards.
Pick: Jets

Detroit (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
In a division with two preseason contenders for NFC Champion, it’s the Lions of Detroit who are sitting pretty a little more than halfway through. But while these aren’t your father’s Steelers, they’re still plenty capable of winning 2-3 more games the rest of the way that they really have no business winning. Be honest, at the end of the year you don’t want to have to admit to yourself that you laid the points with the Lions on the road in Heinz Field, do you?
Pick: Steelers

Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. Washington
With each passing week, it becomes more and more evident that people are still overrating Washington based on 2012. This line should be at least a touchdown differential, if not more. Come on, the quarterback for the Eagles looks like the love child of Joe Montana and Willie Beamen!
Pick: Eagles

Chicago (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
And the award for “team that nobody can figure out at all” goes to….OH MY GOSH, IT’S A TIE! Honestly, if there was a way for the Bears to win by 3.5, that’s probably what would happen.
Pick: Ravens

Arizona (-6.5) at Jacksonville
Arizona lays the smack down this week, and the Earth continues to spin.
Pick: Cardinals

Houston (-7.5) vs. Oakland
Based on my record, you can tell that I’m not very sure of many things. But I’m absolutely certain that the 2-7 Texans have no business being more than touchdown favorites against any other team in the league. But then again, this line makes so little sense that maybe it is a trap. The hamster on the wheel is working overtime again!
Pick: Texans

Cincinnati (-6.5) vs. Cleveland
Tough game to call. The Bengals have suddenly turned very Jekyll and Hyde recently, and the Brownies are coming off a bye week fully rested (but of course, still kinda stink). If Cincy had won last week, this would be a perfect spot to take Cleveland. But I think the Baltimore loss woke the Bengals up just enough.
Pick: Bengals

Miami (-1.5) vs. San Diego
As a Charger fan, every once in awhile there comes along a game where you just know that San Diego is going to win. They usually end up crushing your dreams and breaking your heart, leaving you on the side of the road to die…but before the game actually starts, you just know they’re gonna win.
Pick: Chargers

New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Green Bay
Oh look, the Giants are 3-6 and barely edged the Raiders in a game where they had a blocked punt touchdown and Oakland’s quarterback threw for minus 155 yards. I guess that means the G-men are BAAAACK!
Pick: Packers

Seattle (-13.5) vs. Minnesota
No brainer, take the Seahawks at home until further notice.
Pick: Seahawks

New Orleans (-3.5) vs. San Francisco
As great as the Saints looked last week….well, they’re gonna look about that great again this week. Just don’t bet against them at home. Got that? Do. Not. Bet. Against. Them. At. Home. I know they aren’t undefeated against the spread at home; but you feel so stupid when you take the underdog to cover and then they lose by 47 points don’t you?
Pick: Saints

Denver (-8.5) vs. Kansas City
The betting public has this one right. The smart money is all on Kansas City, because great defense beats legendary offense every time.
Pick: Chiefs

Carolina (-2.5) vs. New England
Easily the game of the week, and it finally looks like people are taking notice of Carolina. But now it’s gone just a little bit too far. That defense is still nasty, but I’m not betting against Tom Brady in prime time just yet.
Pick: Patriots

BEST BETS: Jets, Eagles, Chargers, Saints
LOCK: San Diego Chargers

RECORD

LAST WEEK

Overall: 9-5 (64%)
Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 1-0

YEAR TO DATE

Overall: 76-71 (51%)
Best Bets: 16-24 (40%)
Lock of the Week: 4-6 (40%)

POWER RANKINGS

Team Name W/L (Prv)

1. Broncos 8-1 (1)
2. Seahawks 9-1 (2)
3. Patriots 7-2 (4)
4. Chiefs 9-0 (5)
5. Saints 7-2 (6)
6. Panthers 6-3 (12)
7. 49ers 6-3 (3)
8. Bengals 6-4 (7)
9. Lions 6-3 (11)
10. Colts 6-3 (8)
11. Bears 5-4 (9)
12. Packers 5-4 (10)
13. Jets 5-4 (13)
14. Ravens 4-5 (15)
15. Cowboys 5-5 (14)
16. Browns 4-5 (17)
17. Eagles 5-5 (20)
18. Titans 4-5 (18)
19. Chargers 4-5 (19)
20. Dolphins 4-5 (16)
21. Giants 3-6 (25)
22. Cardinals 5-4 (26)
23. Redskins 3-6 (21)
24. Rams 4-6 (29)
25. Texans 2-7 (22)
26. Falcons 2-7 (23)
27. Steelers 3-6 (28)
28. Raiders 3-6 (27)
29. Bills 3-7 (24)
30. Vikings 2-7 (30)
31. Bucs 1-8 (31)
32. Jaguars 1-8 (32)