WEEK 7 PICKS
* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.
Seattle (-7.5) at Arizona
They’re trying to get us with this one. They want you to say oh, Seattle isn’t as good on the road and 7.5 is a pretty big number. Take Arizona and take the points, right? But you can’t underestimate the fact that Seattle is awesome and the Cardinals are kinda not. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is that hard-hitting analysis that you pay us for.
Pick: Seahawks
New England (-4.5) at New York Jets
These two always seem to play one another tough. Now the Pats are coming off a huge win against a very good team while the Jets are coming off a bad loss against a pretty bad team. So the public is seeing this as New England hitting its stride and the Jets beginning their scuffle. Don’t do it. The Pats just lost one of their most critical defenders, they still haven’t figured out what their offense is yet, and the New York defense is amongst the best in the league. I think this is a field goal game, in either direction.
Pick: Jets
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. Dallas
Everybody and their mother is suddenly in love with Nick Foles this week (yours truly made him a last-minute pickup in a couple of leagues and started him last week, thank you very much). But this is not the Tampa Bay Bucs they’re playing. It’s the Cowboys. The rivalry that rivals any other rivals’ rivalry. And Dallas is kinda rolling a little bit. Oh and the last I checked, the Eagles still hadn’t done anything to fix that defense yet.
Pick: Cowboys
Atlanta (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay
I read in a few places that the Falcons are using “walkers” at wide receiver this week. They’ve got good hands and get excellent separation, but the 40-yard times are pretty weak. I think Tampa might be able to hang with them, this week at least.
Pick: Bucs
Detroit (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
Oh look, it’s two teams that nobody knows what to make of in any given week. Awesome. Aaaaaand, it came out heads!
Pick: Bengals
Carolina (-5.5) vs. Saint Louis
I’m pretty sure Carolina is a lot better than their record indicates, and I’m pretty sure the Rams are mostly terrible. This line reflects that, but not quite enough.
Pick: Panthers
Washington (-1.5) vs. Chicago
Is this some kind of sick joke?
Pick: Bears
Miami (-8.5) vs. Buffalo
Line feels a little high to me. I’m not sure the Dolphins should be favored by this many points against anyone, until they show they’re more than a “nice” team with a “good” defense.
Pick: Bills
San Diego (-7.5) at Jacksonville
The Chargers have been Jekyll and Hyde before, but I don’t know that I’ve ever known less about what to expect than I do this season. That being said, the Jags were getting 27 points a week ago against Denver. This week they are only getting 7.5 against San Diego. There’s no way Denver is 27 points better than Jacksonville (dammit), but by calculating the difference in lines, there’s REALLY no way that Denver is 20 points better than the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers
San Francisco (-4.5) at Tennessee
Tell me, which offensive player is going to do anything in this game for the Titans. Go ahead, I’ll wait.
Pick: Niners
Green Bay (-10.5) vs. Cleveland
Let’s not underestimate the loss of one of the best defensive players in the league for the Packers. Oh, you did? And you didn’t account for losing 2/3 of their dynamic receiving corps either? Hmm, this one scares me that it’s so high but I’ve got to think Cleveland can hang around with a banged-up Packers squad, no?
Pick: Browns
Pittsburgh (-1.5) vs. Baltimore
In what is essentially a pick em game, I don’t really see a way the Ravens don’t come out victorious here. I realize it’s a great rivalry and blah blah blah, but Baltimore is a far more complete team even with all their flaws.
Pick: Ravens
Kansas City (-6.5) vs. Houston
I had told myself I was going to keep taking Houston until they covered, because people were blowing the pick-6 thing way out of hand. And then they did it again. And again. And the Chiefs keep dominating everyone. As difficult as it might be to see the Chiefs at 7-0, I don’t really see that there is any way it can be prevented.
Pick: Chiefs
Denver (-6.5) at Indianapolis
Peyton Manning has been cool all week when pressed to comment on the potentially negative comments made about him by the team’s owner. But while he might seem cool, Peyton is really Gus Fring. The Indianapolis defense is Victor’s throat. I think you know where this one is going.
Pick: Broncos
New York Giants (-3.5) vs. Minnesota
For the love of god, they’ve got to win one of these weeks right? Why NOT on Monday Night Football and a national audience, just so Eli Manning can have a pretty good game that everyone will call masterful and amazing the next morning.
Pick: Giants
BEST BETS: Chicago, Baltimore, Kansas City, Denver
LOCK: Denver Broncos
RECORD
LAST WEEK
Overall: 4-11 (26%)
Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 48-44 (52%)
Best Bets: 12-12 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 3-3 (50%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Broncos 6-0 (1)
2. Seahawks 5-1 (2)
3. 49ers 4-2 (3)
4. Bengals 4-2 (4)
5. Patriots 5-1 (6)
6. Saints 5-1 (5)
7. Bears 4-2 (7)
8. Packers 3-2 (8)
9. Chiefs 6-0 (9)
10. Ravens 3-3 (10)
11. Colts 4-2 (11)
12. Lions 4-2 (13)
13. Dolphins 3-2 (14)
14. Texans 2-4 (12)
15. Chargers 3-3 (20)
16. Cowboys 3-3 (15)
17. Eagles 3-3 (22)
18. Browns 3-3 (16)
19. Titans 3-3 (19)
20. Jets 3-3 (17)
21. Falcons 1-4 (18)
22. Panthers 2-3 (23)
23. Rams 3-3 (25)
24. Redskins 1-4 (21)
25. Bills 2-4 (24)
26. Vikings 1-4 (26)
27. Cardinals 3-3 (27)
28. Steelers 1-4 (30)
29. Raiders 2-4 (28)
30. Bucs 0-5 (29)
31. Giants 0-6 (31)
32. Jaguars 0-6 (32)
