WEEK 6 PICKS
* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.
Chicago (-7.5) vs. New York Giants
If the Giants were called anything but the New York Giants, we’d see them for what they are – a team that is getting blown out of the building on a regular basis, turning the ball over at an alarming rate, and with no signs of fixing any aspects of their team any time soon. That extra half point concerns me, but not enough to scare me off of this one. We’ve got one team that turns it over like Lohan, against a team that strips it like…um…hmm. Yeah.
Pick: Bears
Minnesota (-2.5) vs. Carolina
I don’t have a great feeling about this game either way, because both teams’ strengths are canceled by the other, and both teams’ weaknesses are weaknesses of the other. When in doubt, go with the team that has the best player on the planet.
Pick: Vikings
Green Bay (-3.5) at Baltimore
Baltimore really has the look of an 8-8, 9-7 team. They’ll make just enough noise against some good teams that you still think of them as the defending champs, but at the end of the day they are just another team. Green Bay, meanwhile, hasn’t really put together its best game of the season yet. Expect that to change this Sunday. Their offensive guys are another week removed from their nagging injuries, the Packers are two plays removed from being 4-0, and Baltimore’s defense is still living off reputation rather than results (they’re a middling defensive unit this season despite having played just one good offensive team). And I’m sorry, but I’ve still got visions of the last time Baltimore faced an elite passing team, Peyton Manning throwing eleventeen touchdowns in Week 1.
Pick: Packers
Detroit (-2.5) at Cleveland
Alright fine, I’m hopping aboard this Cleveland express. It’s taken me all season long to do it and I haven’t believed in them throughout, but I figure home against the Lions is a good place to start. Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon might go for a combined 300 yards and 4 scores against this secondary. And even if Calvin Johnson is merely hobbled a bit, Detroit is nowhere capable of putting an explosive offense on the field.
Pick: Browns
Philadelphia (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
Tampa is rested coming off the bye week, and I’m sorry but I just don’t think Nick Foles is any good. And in one league where I’m relying pretty heavily on Doug Martin, I need something big out of him so I can trade him. So let’s go Bucs!
PS: Knowshon sucks
Pick: Bucs
Houston (-7.5) vs. Saint Louis
When you factor in the pick-6, the Texans need to win this game by 15 points in order to cover this one. Not feeling it.
Pick: Rams
Cincinnati (-7.5) at Buffalo
Pretty sure the Bills are starting me at quarterback this week.
Pick: Bengals
New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Just when the Jets are considered dead and buried in preseason, you realize they play a schedule slightly easier than Booker T. Washington. Now they get the winless Steelers. But as bad as Pittsburgh has been, they aren’t a winless type of team. They’ve also now had two full weeks to be underprepared for the Jets, so I see positives for them in this one. The Jets are coming off a big win against Atlanta and could maybe be peeking ahead a little bit to next week’s showdown with New England as well.
Pick: Steelers
Kansas City (-9.5) vs. Oakland
Have the Chiefs been playing a little bit over their heads? Sure they have. But I think the Raiders have benefitted from playing some really weak defenses in Jacksonville, Washington, and San Diego to start the year. And yet they’re still not lighting it up in those games anyway. Now they’re gonna square off against a legitimately good defense, and we’re going to see Pryor really struggle for the first time. Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles might break Emmitt Smith’s all-time rushing record by halftime.
Pick: Chiefs
Seattle (-13.5) vs. Tennessee
Damn, those of us who thought we were getting a discount with Seattle coming off a tough loss and playing against a surprisingly good Tennessee team were way off. I have less feel for this game than any other this week based on that line. However, this is a team that hasn’t been home in three weeks. In home games this year, they’ve outscored their opponents 74-20 while in road games it’s only 63-61. These fans are gonna be jazzed up, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t good, and Chris Johnson still doesn’t like fantasy football. Blowout city!
Pick: Seahawks
Denver (-27.5) vs. Jacksonville
There is absolutely no reason to think Denver will win this game by less than four touchdowns. The insane point spread is the result of Vegas begging people to somehow, some way, take Jacksonville. The same Jaguars that just got blown out by the Saint Louis Rams. Have you ever lost to Elton John in a most macho man contest? That’s how the Jaguars felt last week. Even if Denver goes up 35-0 at halftime and brings in the backups, I’m not entirely convinced that Jacksonville’s first team is better than the Denver second unit.
Pick: Broncos
New England (-2.5) vs. New Orleans
Until the Patriots put together a complete performance and just dominate someone that isn’t the Bucs, let’s keep picking against them. There will be enough people who assume this is a typically awesome Pats team that we can take advantage of them when they’re about to get crushed by an actual awesome one.
Pick: Saints
San Francisco (-11.5) vs. Arizona
This one is as simple as, the Niners aren’t as good as everyone expected them to be, but the betting public hasn’t caught on yet. And Arizona isn’t as bad as everyone expected them to be, but the betting public hasn’t caught on yet. Simple. See? Gambling is so easy!
Pick: Cardinals
Dallas (-5.5) vs. Washington
The arguments have been made all week. Frankly, I think I spent more time defending Tony Romo on Facebook than he even deserves, but there are apparently that many dumb people out there. Fact is, Dallas has demonstrated an ability to put up huge offensive numbers. And while they haven’t stopped anyone (and this week’s game does not equal last week’s game), I feel good about their chances to outlast the Skins if this turns into an offensive showdown. Washington is still a bit banged-up, and Dallas is clicking.
Pick: Cowboys
Indianapolis (-1.5) at San Diego
If I ever try to talk myself into thinking the Chargers are a playoff contender again this season, can someone please pull a Skyler White and tell me to shut up. Shut up. Shut up. SHUT. UP. SHUT. UP. SHUT UP! SHUT UP! SHUTUP!!! SHUTUP!!! SHUTUP!!! SHUT UPPPPPPP!!!!!
Pick: Colts
BEST BETS: Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys
LOCK: Broncos
RECORD
LAST WEEK
Overall: 8-6 (57%)
Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 44-33 (57%)
Best Bets: 10-10 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 3-2 (60%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1.Broncos 5-0 (1)
2. Seahawks 4-1 (2)
3. 49ers 3-2 (5)
4. Bengals 3-2 (6)
5. Saints 5-0 (7)
6. Patriots 4-1 (3)
7. Bears 3-2 (4)
8. Packers 2-2 (8)
9. Chiefs 5-0 (9)
10. Ravens 3-2 (10)
11. Colts 4-1 (12)
12. Texans 2-3 (11)
13. Lions 3-2 (13)
14. Dolphins 3-2 (14)
15. Cowboys 2-3 (18)
16. Browns 3-2 (20)
17. Jets 3-2 (23)
18. Falcons 1-4 (15)
19. Titans 3-2 (16)
20. Chargers 2-3 (17)
21. Redskins 1-3 (22)
22. Eagles 2-3 (24)
23. Panthers 1-3 (19)
24. Bills 2-3 (21)
25. Rams 2-3 (27)
26. Vikings 1-3 (26)
27. Cardinals 3-2 (28)
28. Raiders 2-3 (31)
29. Bucs 0-4 (29)
30. Steelers 0-4 (30)
31. Giants 0-5 (25)
32. Jaguars 0-5 (32)
