WEEK 5 PICKS
* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.
Cleveland (-4.5) vs. Buffalo
This looked like a god awful matchup in the preseason, but now that we’ve gotten a little bit closer to kickoff, it doesn’t look so bad. Ladies and gentlemen, your beer goggles game of the week! I just can’t shake the feeling that the Browns are not only playing over their head; they’re playing over Huell’s head.
Pick: Bills
Seattle (-2.5) at Indianapolis
The poor Colts. Seattle got the scare out of their system last week, and despite having to go back on the road to a tough environment in Indy, the Colts are just overmatched in nearly every area of the game. The Colts look against the Jags or some of the mediocre teams, but when you stack them up against an elite team, the warts suddenly start showing. It’s the same reason you never let your girlfriend get her picture taken with a Victoria’s Secret model.
Pick: Seahawks
Saint Louis (-11.5) vs. Jacksonville
Ok fine, it’s time to admit it. Numbers don’t go high enough to cover point spreads for Jacksonville games.
Pick: Rams
Kansas City (-2.5) at Tennessee
Don’t get me wrong, the Titans are off to a strong start. But they aren’t nearly on the level of the Chiefs, and now they’re down their quarterback. And if Chris Johnson doesn’t stop bad-mouthing fantasy football players, he’s gonna quickly find himself on a trip to Belize!
Pick: Chiefs
Miami (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
Whatever happened to the Tannehill/Mike Wallace connection? That ended up being about as impactful as KONY 2012. But I like Miami to respond off a bad loss better than the Ravens. Bet you didn’t expect to be hearing those words said this season.
Pick: Dolphins
New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia
I’ll be at this game, so look for me on TV. I’ll be the guy in the luxury box rooting for Vick, McCoy, and Jackson to each score about eleventy billion points while surrounded by Giants fans who are utterly desperate for a win. So I’ll probably also be the guy with the bruises.
Pick: Eagles
Chicago (-1.5) vs. New Orleans
When the Saints offense is rolling, you don’t try to get cutesy and try to guess when the fall is coming. Just grab hold and enjoy the ride.
Pick: Saints
Cincinnati (-1.5) vs. New England
The Bengals are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Browns, in a game where it seems like they were going to win big. The Pats are coming off a huge win against the Falcons, in a game that most thought they could easily lose. So this line seems to make no sense. It seems too obvious to take the Pats. Which is why…
Pick: Bengals
Green Bay (-6.5) vs. Detroit
Let’s not forget about how good the Packers are when they’re rolling. Why does it feel like they haven’t played in two months? I feel like they’ve been stranded alone in a cabin in the New Hampshire woods, completely cut off from society, paying random people $10,000 for a game of poker. I’m sorry if you don’t get these references, but I just can’t help myself.
Pick: Packers
Carolina (-2.5) at Arizona
Carolina is well-rested, and ya know, not too bad. The Cardinals were fortunate to have won last week, mostly because they played the most dysfunctional group since Derek and Danny Vinyard’s family.
Pick: Panthers
Denver (-7.5) at Dallas
People are already starting in with the “Denver will go undefeated” talk. It’s been four games people, and they still haven’t established a great running game, have some questionable depth along the line, and the defense while good has not been dominant. Eventually, somebody is going to get to them. Dallas hasn’t really had that offensive explosion, they’re playing at home, and to top it they are more than a touchdown dog.
Pick: Cowboys
San Francisco (-6.5) vs. Houston
This one just comes down to one simple assumption for me. The Niners haven’t played near their best football in awhile, and one of these weeks they are going to explode again. Why not this one? I mean, if there’s one thing we know about gambling, it’s that you keep doing the same thing over and over and over and over again until you win. As for Houston, do we give them credit for dominating Seattle for three quarters, or do we fault them for blowing such a huge lead? I think you know where I stand on that one.
Pick: Niners
San Diego (-4.5) at Oakland
The Chargers are so maddening. You know that girl in high school? The beauty with the attitude? The one that you just couldn’t quit no matter how hard you tried? The one that still gives you dreams in the middle of the night where you wake up and wonder what might have been? The one who had so much passion that it sometimes drove you nuts but in such a good way? Well the Chargers aren’t that girl. The Chargers are the cutter from the back of the bar who drugged your drink, got knocked up with your kid in the parking lot, then immediately drained your bank account for child support, and has track marks the size of Tony Siragusa. Still can’t quit her, but for slightly different reasons.
Pick: Chargers
Atlanta (-9.5) vs. New York Jets
You might look at this game and see that a 1-3 team is nearly a double digit favorite against a 2-2 squad with a solid defense and a running game. I look at this team and see a Monday night game that will be over before the end of the first quarter. Atlanta hasn’t clicked yet, but man are they ready to.
PICK: Falcons
BEST BETS: Bills, Chiefs, Saints, Panthers
LOCK: Chiefs
RECORD
LAST WEEK
Overall: 6-9 (40%)
Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
Lock Of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 36-27 (57%)
Best Bets: 8-8 (50%)
Lock Of the Week: 2-2 (50%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Broncos 4-0 (1)
2. Seahawks 4-0 (2)
3. Patriots 4-0 (5)
4. Bears 3-1 (3)
5. 49ers 2-2 (6)
6. Bengals 2-2 (4)
7. Saints 4-0 (8)
8. Packers 1-2 (7)
9. Chiefs 4-0 (13)
10. Ravens 2-2 (9)
11. Texans 2-2 (10)
12. Colts 3-1 (15)
13. Lions 3-1 (16)
14. Dolphins 3-1 (11)
15. Falcons 1-3 (12)
16. Titans 3-1 (19)
17. Chargers 2-2 (21)
18. Cowboys 2-2 (14)
19. Panthers 1-2 (17)
20. Browns 2-2 (25)
21. Bills 2-2 (27)
22. Redskins 1-3 (23)
23. Jets 2-2 (18)
24. Eagles 1-3 (22)
25. Giants 0-4 (20)
26. Vikings 1-3 (26)
27. Rams 1-3 (24)
28. Cardinals 2-2 (28)
29. Bucs 0-4 (29)
30. Steelers 0-4 (30)
31. Raiders 1-3 (31)
32. Jaguars 0-4 (32)
