WEEK 3 PICKS
* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. Kansas City
The number of plays the Eagles run by the end of the season is going to be one of those astounding, almost fake, numbers. Like when you hear how many films a porn star makes in a three week period. Is it going to wear Philly out? That’ll be one of the more fascinating questions of the season. If the porn industry is any indication, then every Eagle over the age of 24 is already teetering on the brink. But in a short week like this and the Chiefs coming down off their big win, I can see Philly jumping out to a fast start and not looking back here.
PICK: Eagles
Houston (-2.5) at Baltimore
One of these weeks, I will quit the Ravens. Defending Super Bowl champs, home dogs in Week 3. If they don’t show up at home in a huge game like this, we can officially empty the bandwagon.
PICK: Ravens
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. San Diego
At FBG, we have four guys who publish preseason projections. I project my own as well, but they aren’t published. For the most part, the guys are extremely accurate compared to most prognosticators. Sometimes they need a little extra expertise to round into form, which is where I come in. If you add my preseason projections to the mix, then the five of us accurately predicted that Eddie Royal would score exactly five touchdowns this season. Amazing!
PICK: Chargers
Dallas (-3.5) vs. Saint Louis
Although I do like the Chiefs this season, we can still call last week a Dallas flub game. Now that that’s out of the way, I like them to rebound in a big way this week. Because we all know how well the Dallas Cowboys respond to tough losses, and that’s with…more tough losses.
PICK: Cowboys
New England (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay
At this point, I’m pretty sure Walt and Jesse have a better working relationship than Greg Schiano and Josh Freeman. No matter how dicey the New England offense has looked in recent weeks, I’m going to continue to be one of those idiots who keeps expecting a huge performance based on zero logic and reason. And also because there’s at least an 85% chance that Schiano is going to try to use the ricin on Freeman before Sunday.
PICK: Patriots
Minnesota (-7) vs. Cleveland
Christian Ponder isn’t a real quarterback any more than Kathy Griffin is a real comedian. Cleveland realized, perhaps sooner and better than any team in recent memory has, that in order to win in the NFL for a sustained period, you need to get the guy under center squared away. Does it set the team back to go through Colt McCoy, then Brandon Weeden, and then eventually someone else? Sure in the short term. But the decade of success that follows the franchise quarterback should help ease the burden a bit. How that affects team morale this week is anybody’s guess, but I’m assuming the team isn’t going to have a tough time replacing the 3.5 yards per carry Richardson was giving them to this point. And with the return of Josh Gordon, this one is ripe to remain closer than 99% of America believes it will.
PICK: Browns
New Orleans (-7.5) vs. Arizona
We used to believe the New Orleans offense was infallible. No matter what was going on with them defensively, we could count on the Saints’ offense to look like it always had 12 or 13 men on the field at all times. Through the season’s first two weeks, that hasn’t really been the case. They haven’t lost anything relevant skill-wise, so what is it? Is Sean Payton rusty? This is kind of a scary line, because this is the kind of game you would expect them to blow a team out by a couple of touchdowns. But Arizona’s defensive backs just did a decent number on the Lions explosive offense a week ago, and it’s not like the New Orleans defense has been known to stop anybody in recent years. All this is logical, and just what you are supposed to think when you pick this game. Which is why I don’t trust it. It makes too much sense.
PICK: Saints
Washington (-1.5) vs. Detroit
This week is going to tell us a lot about Detroit’s immediate future. They lost to an underwhelming Arizona team a week ago, in a game that they had no business losing. Afterwards, a lot of the blame was shifted towards not having Reggie Bush for much of the afternoon. No word on whether he was the culprit in the 0-16 season yet. They need to come out against this hapless Washington defense and make a statement – and then not let up. If Matthew Stafford throws for anything less than 400 yards and four touchdowns, it has to be considered a failure of epic proportions.
PICK: Lions
Green Bay (-1.5) at Cincinnati
In what is quite possibly the game of the week, this should tell us a lot about the NFC vs the AFC this season. After two weeks, we look pretty smart having declared Denver as the AFC’s best team and Seattle/San Francisco as the best of the NFC. But these second tier teams get to do battle, and the results will be very telling. Cincinnati is arguably the second or third best team in the AFC right now, but couldn’t get over the hump against Chicago. If they can’t handle the Packers at home, it might be time to declare the new name for the AFC, “The Broncos and a bunch of sucky teams who are only going to win game because they play one another”. Catchy, I know.
PICK: Bengals
Carolina (-1.5) vs. New York Giants
Eli Manning has been embarrassed through two weeks. He has been a turnover machine, and if that’s not enough, big brother is on his way towards another MVP award. I know everyone loves Peyton and everything, but these days he’s a worse big brother than Brian Moser. Now Eli gets to finally face a reeling team in a winnable game…and it’s the extremely talented and hungry Panthers. Let’s face it, if either of these teams starts out 0-3 that’s a pretty safe assumption that they will be watching the playoffs in January. The smart money isn’t just on Tom Coughlin; it’s on anybody facing Ron Rivera.
PICK: Giants
Miami (-1.5) vs. Atlanta
Along with Cincinnati/Green Bay, this game will tell us a lot about the quality of the top teams in the respective conferences. It might be a bit unfair that we’re including Miami in this group already and that we’re using the previously dominant Falcons as an early season litmus test, but here we are. The fact that Miami is a favorite in this game is shocking, and I’m seeing everyone gravitate towards the Falcons in this one. With Steven Jackson out and a hobbled receiving corps, not to mention Miami’s sturdy defense and suddenly newfound running game, I like the Fish here in an upset that isn’t technically an upset.
PICK: Dolphins
Seattle (-19.5) vs. Jacksonville
Seattle could probably win this game by 60 points if they wanted to. This is a line that is just ridiculous though. The Seahawks won’t need to blow anybody out in this game, and this line is spiked way too high after their performance a week ago against the Niners. There is no statement to be made here. There is no reason to blow out the Jaguars. Pretty sure the league is close to taking pity on them. Don’t be surprised if, at the end of the season, the NFL grants each player on Jacksonville a participation trophy along with the standard awards. Poor things.
PICK: Jaguars
San Francisco (-10.5) vs. Indianapolis
This line is way too high. Perhaps you haven’t heard, but the Colts just pulled off the greatest trade in the history of the NFL. You don’t agree with me? Well maybe you missed it, but the only thing that matters in today’s NFL is how a trade affects the fantasy football landscape. It’s the same reason why there was more ranting and raving over a running back changing teams than there was when Darrelle Revis was dealt. All kidding aside, the trade does help the Colts. And all kidding aside, they weren’t getting beaten by double digits even if they ran Joseph Addai out there. PS – no player ever dropped off the planet faster than Joseph Addai.
PICK: Colts
New York Jets (-2.5) vs. Buffalo
When in doubt, pick the typically laughingstock New York team with the dynamic black rookie quarterback that has opened up 1-1 this season with two close games so far, one of which was a last minute comeback against an NFC South team and the other a tough loss to the division rival Patriots. Hmm, needs more modifiers.
PICK: Jets
Chicago (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
Steeler fans want to know why Todd Haley was allowed back in the building, and what he’s doing to their team.
PICK: Bears
Denver (-14.5) vs. Oakland
For a long time, it’s been “throw out the records” time when Denver and Oakland hooked up. This line tells me that Vegas no longer feels that applies, or at least doesn’t think the general public feels it applies. But what about when you consider all the angles? When you realize that the Broncos have already lost 40% of their starting o-line, the ghost of Knowshon Moreno is the starting tailback, Terrelle Pryor is on pace for 1,000 yards, Darren McFadden has avoided contracting every malady known to mankind, and Denver’s defensive coordinator is agent Van Alden’s doppleganger, wouldn’t you give the Raiders more of a shot than being two touchdown dogs? Thought so.
Pick: Raiders
BEST BETS: Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Giants
LOCK: Chargers
RECORD
LAST WEEK
Overall: 7-9 (43%)
Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
Lock Of the Week: 0-1
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 18-14 (56%)
Best Bets: 4-4 (50%)
Lock Of the Week: 0-2
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Broncos 2-0 (1)
2. Seahawks 2-0 (2)
3. 49ers 1-1 (3)
4. Packers 1-1 (5)
5. Bears 2-0 (6)
6. Patriots 2-0 (4)
7. Bengals 1-1 (7)
8. Texans 2-0 (8)
9. Saints 2-0 (9)
10. Falcons 1-1 (12)
11. Ravens 1-1 (11)
12. Dolphins 2-0 (16)
13. Chiefs 2-0 (21)
14. Cowboys 1-1 (10)
15. Giants 0-2 (13)
16. Lions 1-1 (14)
17. Colts 1-1 (17)
18. Chargers 1-1 (25)
19. Eagles 1-1 (15)
20. Panthers 0-2 (19)
21. Redskins 0-2 (18)
22. Rams 1-1 (20)
23. Vikings 0-2 (23)
24. Bills 1-1 (28)
25. Cardinals 1-1 (31)
26. Jets 1-1 (24)
27. Bucs 0-2 (26)
28. Titans 1-1 (27)
29. Raiders 1-1 (29)
30. Steelers 0-2 (22)
31. Browns 0-2 (30)
32. Jaguars 0-2 (32)
