The first week of the NFL season always brings lots of clarity for IDP owners. This week was no exception. We now know what teams truly think of their personnel, have a better sense of their depth charts and know how they'll align in subpackages. But it's also a week when we shouldn't overreact to small sample sizes.
Distilling the right information but remaining skeptical where needed means lots of film study. So, as always, the first RTD of every new season is dedicated to an extended discussion of whether a player's stat line matches his on-field play. If I don't get to a player you have questions about, chances are John Norton will in his Eyes of the Guru tomorrow. You should also make Larry Thomas' extensive Matchup Data Sheet a priority every week, but especially so during the first month. You'll find every team's tackle opportunity, pressure and stat crew trends there. And I'll be back Sunday morning with more notes on every team's injury situation, expected depth chart and potential upside matchups.
Defensive Line Notes
Unless you only play one defensive lineman each week, it's best not to shuffle your defensive line roster after Week 1. There are a handful of players who finished in the top 20 this week that are going to be on free agent lists in nearly all leagues. Some of them -- Desmond Bryant, Daniel Teo-Nesheim, George Selvie and Chris Canty -- warrant a closer look. None of them are going to be must adds. (If your roster is deep enough to hold a DL4, Bryant would be my priority add.) Instead, I want to focus on players that are already rostered or I've discussed heavily in the preseason.
J.J. Watt | 2 solos, 1 assist, 0 sacks, 1 tackle for loss, 2 quarterback hits, 1 pass defensed
This isn't the line you expect from a player you've reached for in the third or fourth round, especially against an average (at best) San Diego offensive line. The immediate concern is whether this line is early evidence of a deeper than expected regression from last year's ridiculous 16 game stat line. Be reassured. While I still think Watt will come back toward earth this year, he showed signs of his usual dominance during the second half of last night's game. His first half was a little underwhelming, but he was quick as a cat and very disruptive in the third quarter and much of the fourth. I doubt you'll find anyone willing to sell low on him already, but don't be afraid to pull the trigger if you're offered the gift.
Cameron Wake | 2-2-2.5, 2 TFL, 6 QH
Justin Houston | 5-0-3, 3 TFL, 3 QH
I've led you wrong before (Rey Maualuga fooled me, Kamerion Wimbley still makes me fussy and the jury remains out on Demario Davis) but I hope every dynasty owner that reads this column made a strong effort to roster these players over the past two seasons. Neither of these lines is a fluke.
Robert Quinn | 3-0-3, TFL, 3 QH, 2 FF
Quinn abused a very easy target in Levi Brown and Carson Palmer last week and there's still no evidence he'll have any impact against the run. But he's continuing to develop as a pass rusher and these are the confidence-boosting games that can snowball into big seasons.
Geno Atkins | 1 QH
Atkins wasn't dominant but this stat line doesn't do his performance full justice. Atkins disrupted the pocket on multiple occasions and played well against the run. Teams are going to have to pick their poison against the Cincinnati line. More often than not in 2012, they chose not to double team Atkins. Chicago did and their pass drop / route scheme protected their line deficiencies much better than in previous seasons. The take home lesson here is to not panic on Atkins -- or Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson -- but that the Chicago offensive line may not be the primo matchup it's been.
DeMarcus Ware | 0-0-0, 1 QH, INT/PD
Osi Umenyiora | 1-0-0, QH
Hold your water with these two. They're still elite tier fantasy options. Neither closed the deal in the pocket, but both showed a solid edge rush and threatened the quarterback on a high percentage of their rush attempts. Ware won't be getting any coverage sacks with the injury issues along the defensive line and cornerback positions, but he'll get his share of numbers. The Saints have been an up-and-down matchup, but Drew Brees has never been an easy sack. Both players have better Week 2 matchups.
Julius Peppers | 0-0-0
Shea McClellin | 2-2-1
Corey Wootton | 0-2-0
Unlike Ware and Umenyiora, Peppers was a complete disappearing act against Cincinnati. That'd be forgivable had Andrew Whitworth been healthy. But it was Anthony Collins who stoned Peppers and often did so without help. If Peppers doesn't improve quickly, there's major concern here. The rotation on the other side of the Chicago line wasn't much better. McClellin's stat line is more impressive and he looked quicker than Wootton. Both played the run well and McClellin took advantage of a well-executed stunt and coverage scheme on his sack. Wootton saw a few more snaps than McClellin, who played only every third base defensive series. Expect some variance for both players.
Linebacker Notes
This is where you separate yourself from your leaguemates. Leave the fluky, non-every-down players with flashy stat lines to your leaguemates while you focus on those players who looked better than their stat lines suggest. Adding NaVorro Bowman in 2011 or Wesley Woodyard last year instead of Koa Misi (10 solos in Week 1) is a huge relative advantage.
Jasper Brinkley | 8-0, TFL, 2 QH, PD
Bront Bird | 10-4
Both players deserve consideration in deeper leagues, but tread lightly here. Both players played every down in the preseason, but neither did last week. And both players are going back to a reserve role in coming weeks.
Brinkley's line will remind fantasy owners of Daryl Washington. He played well against the run and got involved in the pass rush. But he was a liability in coverage as usual and didn't stay on the field in long passing situations. With Detroit and New Orleans on the schedule in the next two weeks, Brinkley could see his snap count drop significantly.
I highlighted Bird as a strong upside flyer in last Sunday's notes column but that was on the strength of a strong matchup. The Texans gave the Chargers 64 tackle opportunities (third best last week and well above the 49-50 per game average over the past 2-3 seasons) and Bird's numbers undoubtedly got a boost. The matchup next week looks great against Philadelphia, but if the Eagles run an up-tempo spread set, Bird's snap count may take a big hit. He's also going back to the bench later this season when Manti Te'o recovers. Consider him a high variance, speculative add in deeper leagues.
Akeem Dent | 5-6, 2 TFL
The Falcons had Joplo Bartu playing in subpackages late in the preseason and it wasn't clear whether they didn't trust Dent in coverage or wanted a look at Bartu against first team competition to make an educated roster decision. I leaned heavily toward the latter but it was hard to put Dent in the lineup against New Orleans, a matchup that stresses nickel snaps. Dent played every down and while he wasn't a dominant force, he did enough good things to expect him to remain an every-down linebacker for the foreseeable future.
Mason Foster | 7-1-2, FF
Foster continues to sit in dime defensive situations, but that will only cost him 8-12 snaps in most weeks. When he faces a team that won't spread the field often -- like the Jets -- and gets 50+ snaps, he's capable of LB2 numbers due to his strong trend of per snap production. He's already rostered in most leagues, but he could get dropped after what will likely be average performances due to poor opportunity against New Orleans and New England over the next two weeks. If that happens, pick him up and pick your spots with him.
Shaun Phillips | 3-1-2.5, FF
The jury is still out on Phillips. I still think he can be a productive player, but I have a nagging suspicion that injuries to the Baltimore offensive line, the mile high home field advantage and the large second half lead made this stat line better than it would otherwise have been. If you can use him at defensive line or have a big play scoring system, roster and watch for a trend. Otherwise, shallow and balanced league owners should make Justin Houston their clear priority.
Every-Down Clarity
In addition to the Arizona, San Diego, Atlanta and Tampa Bay situations, the rest of the league showed their subpackage plans last week and allow us to make better snap count projections.
The Ravens only rarely used Arthur Brown, likely fearing that Peyton Manning would take advantage of the rookie. Josh Bynes looks like a reasonably strong matchup play through Week 4. But the string of matchup after the team's Week 8 bye may begin working in Brown's favor. Nigel Bradham saw very little playing time against New England, with the Bills preferring to use six or seven defensive backs against the Patriots. He can be dropped unless you're in a deeper dynasty league. The Texans did the same against the Chargers, using D.J. Swearinger as a hybrid nickel backer and sitting Joe Mays. And there are some extended thoughts below, but the Saints look like they will use three safeties rather than keep David Hawthorne on the field.
Also of note: Brandon Spikes lasted two snaps before throwing a wrench into our hopes. This time, he left the game with what was called dehydration. There's been no explanation in the Boston media and Dont'a Hightower played the majority of snaps after Spikes left.
Defensive Back Notes
Duke Ihenacho | 11-1, 3 PD
Here's your top waiver wire priority for the week. I'd bumped Ihenacho into the upper reaches of my matchup safety cloud and recommended that he be picked up ahead of guys like James Ihedigbo, T.J. McDonald, George Iloka, Brandon Meriweather, Eric Reid and other late preseason job winners at safety. But I didn't expect this level of production. It could continue. The Broncos don't have much competition for tackles in the back seven and Ihenacho was used in the box frequently. He played downhill against the run and showed better than expected pass recognition and closing skills. It's hard not to consider him an early favorite to join Tyvon Branch, Kam Chancellor, George Wilson, etal as our late summer DB find in 2013.
Ryan Mundy | 4-2, INT
Mundy played well against Dallas and probably deserved a better stat line than he got from the Dallas stat crew. He was around the ball and handled his coverage responsibilities well. With the turnover at linebacker and the continually inconsistent Antrel Rolle as his surrounding cast, there may be DB2+ value here for the rest of the season. If Ihenacho is already rostered, add Mundy and you may not lose much.
Da'Norris Searcy | 4-4-1, FR/TD
I'm a fan of Searcy. But I have to temper expectations here a bit. Aaron Williams was the lone every-down safety against New England and Mike Pettine trusted Jim Leonhard over Searcy in some coverage situations. The good news is that Searcy was used more than Arthur Moats in the Bryan Scott subpackage role. The not-so-good news is that Searcy may see only those subpackage snaps when Jairus Bryd returns to health. Ride him for now, but Searcy isn't a long term answer.
Malcolm Jenkins | 4-2, FF
Kenny Vaccaro | 5-0, PD
Roman Harper | 2-1, INT, FR
There's going to be lots of value in this trio. Rob Ryan trusted Vaccaro to play every down in a huge divisional matchup against Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez. And he used Vaccaro in the slot and as a nickel linebacker. His line isn't super impressive, but if Vaccaro continues to be used that way, he's the player to own in this trio. All isn't lost for Harper owners, however. Harper only missed 7 of 56 snaps as Rob Ryan looked to a Big Nickel package for much of the game. There are going to be weeks where Harper is an afterthought but if you like chasing big play upside, Harper will continue to hit fairly often.
Stat Crew Notes
We'll be watching the trends closely over the first month of the season, but it appears it'll be status quo with the league's stat crews once again. The Indianapolis crew once again looks assist happy (34 solos, 34 assists for the Colts / 32 solos, 22 assists for the visiting Raiders). Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Washington and New Orleans were again on the assist heavy side, though their solo counts aren't as depressed as Indianapolis. If last year's trend holds, we'll see Cincinnati rival Indianapolis for assist increases and solo tackle decreases next week.
The other end of the spectrum is also holding firm. The stat crews in St. Louis and Jacksonville both awarded only two assists total to both home and visiting teams.
More on those trends and other early metrics next week...
Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis and matchup discussion. Check my article page on Sunday morning for notes on every team's key injuries, depth chart changes and IDP expectations. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.