defensive line tiers
After last week's future watch discussion, I'd like to get a headstart on this offseason's tier features over the next three weeks.
Your tiers should be shallow in the offseason, even in deeper leagues. Unless a given IDP position is as scarce as offensive talent in your league, it's always better to carry a boom-bust offensive flyer over a replacement level defender or take up multiple bench spots with just above replacement level defenders.
My defensive line tiers, for example, will run only 30-40 players deep and you may also safely ignore the Matchup DL3 tier in most situations. I'll rank the players loosely within each tier in order of preference and I'll list the tiers in order of my personal preference. While it's not necessarily a true big board where a player ranked below another should be traded straight up for a player ranked above, it's close.
Elite DL1
Regression is a tough thing to overcome with a fickle stat like sacks. It's really hard to get enough chances to threaten for 20 sacks and then take advantage. Watt's season has been just as, if not more, impressive this year. His tackle counts remain astronomical for a defensive lineman and he's still going to approach 14-16 sacks. And, though Quinn is on Watt's tail in balanced scoring systems, Watt is again 7-10 ppg better than the next tier of linemen. I don't think there's anything a new coaching staff could do to decrease his value in 2014. Consider him untouchable.
Quinn and Jones are elite ends. Quinn's 24 non-sack solo tackles are very promising for his long term consistency. Wake's numbers suffered due to a knee injury this year that's limited him for at least six weeks. He's 31 years old, but showed no evidence of a decline in skill before the injury. I may be a little high on Ansah here, but the strides he made between the Senior Bowl and Week 1 under the tutelage of Jim Washburn are striking. The athleticism was always there and it's shocking how quickly he's improved technically in some areas. As long as durability doesn't become a chronic concern, he'll quickly prove he belongs in this group.
Elite DL1 Upside
- Charles Johnson
- Cameron Jordan
- Greg Hardy
- Mario Williams
- Demarcus Ware
There's some risk throughout this tier, but these are the most consistent of the inconsistent linemen. Ware's continued neck and shoulder issues still worry me, but he's back to his solid pass rushing ways now that he's mostly over his quad strain.
DL2 w/ DL1 Upside
- Olivier Vernon
- Michael Johnson
- Dion Jordan
- Carlos Dunlap
- Jason Pierre-Paul
- Rob Ninkovich
- Muhammad Wilkerson
- Calais Campbell
- Geno Atkins (DT)
Three Miami defensive linemen in the top three tiers seems crazy. But Vernon exploded after the first month of the season and Jordan has looked capable of strong all-around play in his limited opportunities. I'm not sure I'd deal either for a player lower on this list. Pierre-Paul's neck and shoulder injuries may be chronic and he's not been able to overcome them this year. That's after multiple epidural injections and a disc procedure in the months leading up to this season. He's still young and shouldn't be given away, but I can't put him in an elite tier until his durability is less of a concern. Johnson may be playing for another team next year. He's been inconsistent enough that a new coordinator, scheme and surrounding cast and big new contract may not be a better situation for him.
High Variance DL2
High Floor DL2
This is an odd pair of tiers. The high variance tier is generally full of players with promise who haven't put it together yet. It may include those players again next year, but it's currently stocked with players on the downside of productive careers that can't string together a prolonged run of good games any longer. The high floor group is shallower than I expected. But I can't drop Cameron Jordan, Muhammad Wilkerson or Calais Campbell here and some of the more promising young 3-4 ends (e.g. Corey Liuget) haven't yet panned out.
DL3 w/ Matchup Value
- Chris Clemons
- Anthony Spencer
- Chris Long
- Adrian Clayborn
- Dontari Poe (DT)
- Ndamukong Suh (DT)
- Jason Hatcher (DT)
- Henry Melton (DT)
- Derrick Morgan
These are the highest ceiling players on my board that don't have every-week starting value. Those in deeper leagues may need to go a little deeper, but the list of players I'd carry through the offseason in most cases ends here.
Rosterable DT
Offseason Watch List
If Michael Johnson moves on, Gilberry showed he was more than a situational rusher when given 45-50 snaps earlier this year. He's signed through 2015. And Taylor has been productive under Jim Washburn as well. If he earns a higher snap count, his skill set should continue to play well on the stacked Detroit line.
Dynasty Watch List
- Damontre Moore (NYG) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-35 DE rostered)
- Margus Hunt (CIN) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Tank Carradine (SF) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Allen Bailey (KC) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Quanterus Smith (DEN) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Sylvester Williams (DEN) -- [DT] -- Intermediate Leagues (15-25 DT rostered)
- Datone Jones (GB) -- Watch List
- Lavar Edwards (TEN) -- Watch List
- Vinny Curry (PHI) -- Watch List
- Cornelius Washington (CHI) -- Watch List
- Malliciah Goodman (ATL) -- Watch List
- Michael Buchanan (NE) -- Watch List
There's lots of potential on this list. Moore and Hunt will have my highest attention in OTAs, but Carradine and Smith and Jones are also valuable.
stunts
Thankfully, the rotations and depth chart situations around the league have been stable over the past couple of weeks for most teams. There are two notable exceptions, however.
Last week, I noted that Zach Brown had been an every-down linebacker in Week 13 but that it was unclear how much of that had to do with Brown's play and how much was related to the ripple effect of Michael Griffin's suspension. I hoped for clarity in Week 14. What we got was anything but. Zaviar Gooden started at weak side linebacker and the Titans rotated five linebackers through their packages. Each of them saw at least 30 snaps. The company line was that the team wanted to keep the group fresh against Denver's high-powered offense. More likely, they didn't trust any of their backers in coverage and tried to minimize the responsbilities of all. Who knows what that means for this week. While there was hope for a positive trend to emerge, none of the Titans' linebackers are trustworthy in fantasy lineups.
There were also indications in Week 13 that something was awry in Denver. We talked about his drop in snaps last week during our podcast and I noted an increased risk of playing him in the Sunday IDP notes column. There was no indication that the Broncos were planning on benching him for Paris Lenon in the base defense against Tennessee. There's some talk that an early season stinger has robbed Woodyard of some of his strength and all-around effectiveness, but John Fox suggested that others have earned opportunities. Whatever the reason, it's clear that Woodyard is too risky to play this week.
The loss of Tyrann Mathieu to an ACL/LCL injury last week will likely put Rashad Johnson back into and every-down role and Antoine Cason into the slot. Don't rush out to grab Johnson, however. It's more likely that Yeremiah Bell and the Arizona inside linebackers will see more opportunity flow their way.
If you had been counting on Wesley Woodyard or are in need of a free agent flyer in deeper leagues this week, Malcolm Smith is your primary target. He'll take over K.J. Wright's every down role and has a pair of decent matchups in NYG (road) and ARI (home). He won't be a LB1, but could have sneaky LB3+ value.
I'll again go team-by-team on Sunday morning with updates on any critical injured players and late week lineup changes.
Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis and matchup discussion. Check my article page on Sunday morning for notes on every team's key injuries, depth chart changes and IDP expectations. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.
