Player Points - Thomas Jones
By Chase Stuart
April 27th, 2010

Last season, Thomas Jones got a very high percentage of his fantasy points in a "running out the clock" sort of way. I defined a clock-killing play as one that occurred in any of four situations:

  • The team was winning by more than 8 with 5 or fewer minutes left
  • The team was winning by more than 10 with 10 or fewer minutes left
  • The team was winning by more than 14 with 15 or fewer minutes left
  • The team was winning by more than 20 with 30 or fewer minutes left

In 2009, Jones got 12% of his fantasy points in these situations, despite having only 8.8% of his touches come during "clock-killing" plays.

Perc
Touches
Running Back
12.0%
8.8%
Thomas Jones
11.5%
11.7%
Marion Barber
10.9%
7.0%
Adrian Peterson
10.0%
10.7%
Laurence Maroney
9.0%
9.0%
Chris Wells
8.4%
7.0%
Cedric Benson
7.1%
2.5%
Ronnie Brown
7.0%
2.5%
Fred Jackson
6.7%
4.3%
Pierre Thomas
5.8%
0.9%
Jamaal Charles
5.2%
8.8%
Ryan Grant
4.7%
6.3%
Jonathan Stewart
4.7%
7.3%
Tim Hightower
4.4%
3.6%
Ray Rice
4.1%
6.4%
Frank Gore
3.1%
5.5%
Michael Turner
2.7%
2.2%
Rashard Mendenhall
2.7%
1.6%
Maurice Jones-Drew
2.7%
6.6%
Brandon Jacobs
2.5%
2.9%
Knowshon Moreno
2.4%
3.3%
Joseph Addai
2.2%
6.2%
LeSean McCoy
2.1%
1.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw
2.0%
1.7%
Cadillac Williams
1.8%
4.5%
Justin Forsett
1.7%
4.4%
Jerome Harrison
1.3%
1.7%
Jason Snelling
1.2%
0.4%
Ricky Williams
1.0%
1.6%
LaDainian Tomlinson
0.6%
1.6%
DeAngelo Williams
0.3%
2.2%
Chris Johnson
0.2%
1.3%
Matt Forte
0.0%
0.0%
Steven Jackson
0.0%
0.0%
Kevin Smith
0.0%
0.0%
Julius Jones
-0.1%
2.3%
Steve Slaton

Last year, the Jets ran a bunch of plays during clock-killing situations. Kansas City? Not so much.

Team
% Run Clock
MIN
17.4%
GNB
15.7%
NWE
13.5%
SDG
13.4%
SFO
13.0%
NOR
12.7%
ARI
12.2%
DAL
12.0%
PHI
11.7%
NYJ
11.7%
HOU
10.5%
BAL
10.2%
DEN
10.0%
IND
9.3%
CIN
8.5%
NYG
8.0%
ATL
7.3%
SEA
7.2%
CAR
6.9%
BUF
5.0%
PIT
4.7%
CHI
4.6%
TEN
3.5%
JAX
3.4%
CLE
2.6%
WAS
2.4%
TAM
2.0%
MIA
1.6%
KAN
1.2%
STL
0.0%
OAK
0.0%
DET
0.0%

The data just backs up the obvious impression most got watching Jones and the Chiefs last season: Jones is most effective running late in games, after wearing down defenses and playing with a lead behind a great offensive line. The problem for his 2010 prospects is that Kansas City doesn't figure to have many leads. Or a great offensive line. Thirteen of Jones' 14 rushing touchdowns last season came while the Jets were ahead or it gave New York the lead. Half of Jones' touchdowns came during the fourth quarter. I think in 2010, Jones is going to have a lot more value in real life to the Chiefs than on many fantasy teams. And that's putting aside that he's going to lose a lot of touches to Jamaal Charles.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.