Player Points - Chad Ochocinco
By Chase Stuart
May 17th, 2010

Let's put all the silly stuff aside about Chad Ochocinco. Here's a quick review of his career:

Year
Rec
RecYds
RecTDs
FPs
Rk
2001
28
329
1
53
77
2002
69
1166
5
181
19
2003
90
1355
10
241
3
2004
95
1274
9
233
8
2005
97
1432
9
249
3
2006
87
1369
7
225
6
2007
93
1440
8
243
7
2008
53
540
4
105
48
2009
72
1047
9
198
14

Like most receivers, Ochocinco (then Johnson) was a nonfactor as a rookie. He broke out as a second-year player before becoming elite in 2003. Starting then, he led the AFC in receiving yards in each of the ensuing four seasons and made five straight Pro Bowls. Over a five-year stretch, Ochocinco didn't miss a single game and averaged 92 receptions, 1374 yards and 8.6 touchdowns. He scored at least 225 FP each season and finished between WR3 and WR8 every year. In 2008, his numbers fell off the map, but he had two excuses: not only did Ochocinco battle injuries but he lost his quarterback, Carson Palmer, for most of the season. Last season, though, Ochocinco's numbers were still off his 2003-2007 pace. But I'm not sure you can blame him for that.

Take a look at Ochocinco's production as a percentage of all receiving fantasy points by the Bengals. I'm defining the Bengals' team fantasy points for receivers to be the sum of the team's receptions (divided by two), receiving yards (divided by 10) and receiving touchdowns (times 6). Last year, Ochocinco was responsible for 34% of his team's receiving fantasy points. That's right in line with what he was doing during his prime.

Year
Rec
Yards
TDs
TFPs
Chad
Perc
2001
322
3291
12
562
53
9.4%
2002
350
3732
17
650
181
27.9%
2003
324
3591
26
677
241
35.5%
2004
324
3520
23
652
233
35.7%
2005
362
3935
32
767
249
32.5%
2006
327
4066
28
738
225
30.5%
2007
373
4131
26
756
243
32.2%
2008
303
2677
11
485
105
21.5%
2009
286
3134
21
582
198
34.0%

And, in fact, his 34% ratio was was tops in the league last season.

Receiver
Team
Perc
PlyrFPs
TmFPs
Chad Ochocinco
CIN
34.0%
197.9
582.4
Brandon Marshall
DEN
33.3%
226.4
679.0
Steve Smith
CAR
32.7%
174.9
535.0
Roddy White
ATL
32.4%
224.0
691.7
Jerricho Cotchery
NYJ
31.0%
135.3
436.6
Andre Johnson
HOU
30.7%
262.4
853.8
Miles Austin
DAL
30.6%
238.3
777.8
Terrell Owens
BUF
30.4%
151.8
499.9
Randy Moss
NWE
30.1%
245.9
817.0
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
30.0%
235.7
785.0
DeSean Jackson
PHI
28.9%
221.9
767.5
Steve Smith
NYG
28.6%
217.5
761.6
Calvin Johnson
DET
28.1%
169.2
601.1
Derrick Mason
BAL
27.9%
181.5
650.2
Reggie Wayne
IND
27.1%
234.4
865.5
Sidney Rice
MIN
26.5%
221.2
833.3
Mike Sims-Walker
JAX
26.4%
160.4
607.4
Vincent Jackson
SDG
25.9%
205.8
793.6
Hines Ward
PIT
25.2%
200.2
793.1
Mohamed Massaquoi
CLE
24.3%
97.1
399.5
Marques Colston
NOR
23.4%
197.0
842.0
Donnie Avery
STL
22.5%
115.4
513.6
Donald Driver
GNB
22.1%
178.4
807.7
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
SEA
21.9%
148.6
678.4
Nate Washington
TEN
21.8%
117.9
541.9
Santana Moss
WAS
21.6%
144.0
665.7
Davone Bess
MIA
21.3%
126.9
595.1
Louis Murphy
OAK
20.3%
96.2
475.0
Dwayne Bowe
KAN
18.5%
106.4
574.8
Antonio Bryant
TAM
18.4%
103.5
561.6
Devin Hester
CHI
17.5%
122.1
699.2
Josh Morgan
SFO
16.5%
102.8
623.3

Whether or not Ochocinco returns to an elite level may have less to do with his skills (he's now 32 years old) and more to do with the Bengals' pass blocking, playcalling, and and Carson Palmer. Cincinnati has overhauled their receiving corp this offseason; they signed two wide receivers (Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones) and drafted one of last season's most productive college players (WR Jordan Shipley, Texas) along with the class's best tight end (Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma). The Bengals gave Carson Palmer a serious amount of ammunition this offseason. It's possible that those guys will eat into the production that Ochocinco had last year, but I think the more likely result is that they'll increase the whole pie, with Ochocinco still getting over 30% of the production. That makes him an undervalued fantasy player.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.