Footballguys' Survivor Draft - 1st Six Rounds Analysis
Posted 7/31 by John Huckeby, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
For me there's nothing better than evaluating fantasy football drafts in late July as training camps open shop. Particularly I like evaluating survivor drafts because they allow one to utilize risk management principles to maximize their team's performance throughout the year. Risk management doesn't necessarily mean taking players who never get injured. On the contrary, risk management principles advocate taking on risks if a team is too conservative. One other very simple facet of the survivor format that is often overlooked is that the primary goal is to never score the least and that is a vastly different goal then trying to score more than a particular opponent in a given week.
So let's get started by taking a look at the first six rounds of the FBG Survivor draft.
Cecil had the envious position of drafting #1 overall, which in survivor play basically means you get the automatic and sometimes explosive scoring of LT each and every week. This is an enormous advantage that gives the LT owner the flexibility when drafting in the upcoming rounds. That being said Cecil selected WRs with his next two picks which is a gamble regardless of whether you have LT or not. With solid RBs such as Edge, Portis and Rudi on the board you've got to use either your 2.12 or 3.01 on RB. There aren't a lot of workhorse RBs to go around and capable WRs will be available for the next 8 rounds. Cecil did take his second RB in the fifth round in the form of Adrian Peterson but rookie RBs are risky propositions for survivor play.
Best Pick: 6.12 DJ Hackett - Always a good idea to add WRs in the middle rounds
Next Six Rounds: Try to find a solid QB2 to compliment Brady. Continue to build RB and WR depth. Add a TE.
Andy wisely selected WRs and RBs with his six first picks. This is a strategy that is almost never wrong in this format. Landing Portis and Steven Jackson in two of the first three rounds is going to bode very well for Andy's team. I'm lukewarm on the addition of Lynch but he does provide some upside at RB depth as his reception totals could be substantial. S. Moss and Boldin will both be solid contributors throughout the year at the very important WR position. I'm not a huge fan of the Betts pick although it was a handcuff for Portis. Andy had already landed three solid RBs and there were still valuable WRs on the board. Handcuffs are not as valuable in the survivor format and as a matter of fact I don't suggest they be drafted if they cost a high draft pick. It is also worth nothing that three of Andy's first six picks have week 4 byes which is obviously not ideal. Andy will need to be wary of selecting players with 4 round byes going forward.
Best Pick: 5.02 - Santana Moss - Solid value here
Next Six Rounds: WR, TE and QB should be an emphasis. Stay away from week 4 bye players.
Right off the bat I'm not a huge fan of the Larry Johnson pick given his potential for a holdout. Management and LJ are miles apart on a deal and in my opinion you're just better off grabbing an Alexander or Westbrook. If LJ even holds out for two or three games it will be absolutely devastating for this team. On a more positive note I do like the next four picks as Rudi, Green, Williams and Coles have a great chance at being solid contributors throughout the season. Ahman's age concerns me a bit in this format but the Houston handcuffs are cheap so we'll see if Mike takes advantage of that in the later rounds.
Best Pick: 3.03 Rudi Johnson - Solid RBs are a rare breed
Next Six Rounds: WR and QB should be emphasized in the coming rounds a flier on a RB may be advised given L.J.'s risk.
This is one of my favorite drafts of the first six rounds as all five of Jeff's first five picks were either RBs or WRs. Jeff didn't waste any picks on a QB and his by weeks are perfectly spread out. By covering six different starting slots with his first six selections Jeff can pick-off value in the coming rounds and not reach for players for the sole purpose of filling holes. Jeff has set himself up nicely for a risk averse team that should put points up consistently on a weekly basis. One slight criticism may be the selection of McAllister In addition to splitting carries with Bush, Deuce will not get too many receptions so he is susceptible to low-scoring weeks. Additionally, I would prefer to see three RBs in the first six rounds.
Best Pick: 3.04 Driver - Should be a solid contributor throughout the season
Next Six Rounds: RB, WR and QB should be emphasized.
This is my favorite draft of the first six rounds. I too would take three RB and three WRs with my first six picks. Jordan and Brown were excellent value. Chambers, Edwards and Harrison are all #1 WRs on their respective teams that should see plenty of targets on a weekly basis. It is a minor concern that this team's top two players have the same by week but because David went deep early at both RB and WR the risk is mitigated. Terrific start here by David.
Best Pick: 3.05 Ronnie Brown - Great Value
Next Six Rounds: RB, WR and QB should be emphasized.
This is one of the better early drafts. Jacobs presented HUGE value at 5.06 and Edge was a great pickup in round 3 as well. I strongly favor three solid RBs in the first six rounds and that is exactly what David has done here. Housh was the only pick I was really at odds with as his PPG would warrant the lofty selection but his games missed are a real concern in the survivor format. Housh is better suited for head-to-head leagues. Nevertheless, this team has built a nice foundation of RBs and WRs with good QB value still on the board.
Best Pick: 5.06 Brandon Jacobs - Could be the steal of the first six rounds
Next Six Rounds: WR should be heavily emphasized in the coming rounds, perhaps the next three selections depending on QB value. Stay away from week 6 and 8 byes if possible. Hold off on RB unless the value is considerable.
Positionally I like this draft as the first five picks were either RB or WR. Because Wayne and Evans are very strong WRs I think another RB selection in the first six rounds would have benefited this team. You can make up WR scoring with strong depth and it will be difficult for Jeff to now find a solid RB#3 that can fill in for bye weeks or potential injuries. One other aspect of this draft that I don't like is the week 10 byes. Unless Jeff finds a sleeper RB in the middle or late rounds week 10 could be very challenging as only the strongest teams will be remaining and Jeff will be without two of his top five players and potentially one starting RB. A solid draft thus far but week 10 and RB depth are early concerns.
Best Pick: 5.07 Galloway - Terrific value
Next Six Rounds: RB depth and at least one QB are a must. The remaining selections should be WRs. Avoid all week 10 byes.
I like the fact that Jason has selected three RBs and Two WRs. Combined with Palmer it's difficult to find any glaring holes in his draft thus far. I don't like the way Jason's byes turned out but this risk can be mitigated with solid depth. I'm not real high on Jackson's prospects this year so with only two WRs on the roster thus far this may be a bit of a concern. Overall a very solid first six rounds.
Best Pick: 3.08 McGahee - Nice to have a solid 2nd RB
Next Six Rounds: WR should be heavily emphasized in the coming rounds, perhaps the next four selections. I would also add a TE.
I have to say I don't like the idea of selecting a QB early and neither did Jeff's competition as the second QB wasn't taken off the board until the middle of the 4th round. That being said the absolute steal of Cedric Benson at the end of the 3rd may have made the Manning pick a wise gamble as Jeff was able to land three RBs that I like quite a bit. Additionally, Jeff was wise to grab WRs in rounds 5 and 6. I particularly like players like Calvin Johnson and Jerious Norwood in this format because they will score long TDs and in this format a long TD usually is enough to put up a nice weekly score for a RB or WR. Jeff has opened himself up to a little bit of risk at WR as he has one of the weaker teams at the top. That being said you can cover the WR position with depth in this format so we'll see how he fares in the coming rounds.
Best Pick: 3.09 Cedric Benson - Has a great chance to put up big numbers and
handcuff of Peterson should be cheap.
Next Six Rounds: It is absolutely imperative that Jeff draft WRs heavily in the coming rounds, possibly five of his next six picks. I wouldn't try to handcuff Benson or Norwood too early as WR is the glaring need. I would also stay away from TE.
This is one of the more interesting drafts. Normally I propose drafting RB early but Sigmund was able to land two relatively consistent RB performers in rounds four and five so he may be able to make it work if he can land additional contributing RBs. The WRs are obviously the best in the league, but I've always been a proponent of producing WR scoring with quantity and not quality. Sigmund's approach will create what I like to call an "unbalanced portfolio" as Sigmund's WR scoring may very well be the best in the league but his RB scoring could very well be close to the worst. I prefer teams that are drafted to score with equal potency across all positions so it will be interesting to see if Sigmund can balance the team going forward. Brees was an absolute steal in the sixth round.
Best Pick: 4.03 Carnell Williams - Should be a consistent RB presence
Next Six Rounds: A nice mix of WR, TE and RB.
This is appears to be the only team to draft just one WR in the first six rounds. You can produce WR scoring in this format with depth so David has his work cut out for him here. Alexander was a steal at 1.11 and I also like Bulger at 5.11. McNabb is a questionable pick not because it's McNabb, but because a second WR should almost always be selected before a second QB. That being said I like all of the players here and if David can fill in his holes at WR he may have a contender.
Best Pick: 1.11 Alexander - Best pick of the first two rounds.
Next Six Rounds: WR, WR and more WR.
This is another one of my favorite drafts. Marc chose only RBs and WRs with his first six selections. I would have like to have seen one more RB but there is still some RB talent on the board so he might still be able to add some quality RB depth. The only selection I may not have made is DeAngelo Williams as I consider him a high risk/high reward type player there were other RBs on the board with similar upside but less risk in my opinion.
Best Pick: 5.12 Deion Branch - He should be gold in PPR formats.
Next Six Rounds: I would try to scoop up one of the few "safe" RBs
remaining in the coming rounds and then blend in a mix of TE/RB/WR.