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Footballguys #83 - 7/11 - How To Value Melvin Gordon Right Now, Hunter Henry The Next Great TE?, Plus News And Notes And MORE

Volume 21, #83 -- Thursday Night, July 11th, 2019

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Howdy Folks,

Welcome to Friday. I hope you didn't have much planned for today as we've got new articles for you plus updated apps plus the News and Notes you need.

We kick it off with a look at Melvin Gordon's value after the holdout talk came out yesterday.

Let's go.

J

SITE NEWS

A. A Close Look at Melvin Gordon's Value
On Wednesday morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter tweeted that Gordon had informed the Chargers that "unless he receives a new contract, he will not report to training camp and will demand a trade." What does that mean for Gordon's fantasy value? What if you are drafting right now? Our Sigmund Bloom dives in.

B. Hunter Henry is the Next Great Fantasy Tight End
Our Phil Alexander makes his case as to why Hunter Henry will make the leap into the elite tier of fantasy tight ends in 2019.

C. Best Ball Advanced Tournament Strategies
Our Dan Hindery with Advanced Strategies for Large Best Ball Tournaments.

D. Beginner's Guide to Fantasy Football, Part 5: Draft Prep and Footballguys Tools
Our Alessandro Miglio continues his Beginners Guide series. In this one, he highlights some of the site's tools to help fantasy football team owners succeed.

E. How to Attack Your Large-League Non-PPR Draft
Our Jeff Tefertiller with strategy for attacking your Large Non-PPR League Draft.

F. Draft Dominator Classic Updated for Windows
Our Draft Dominator Classic is our original Drafting Tool. It's updated this week for Windows.

G. Draft Dominator Classic Updated for Mac
Our Draft Dominator Classic is our original Drafting Tool. It's updated this week for Mac.

H. Value Based Drafting (VBD) Excel App Updated
I introduced Value Based Drafting (VBD) to Fantasy Football years ago. And our David Dodds has been creating our VBD Excel Sheet App for just about that long. Get it here.

I. Projections Dominator Updated
Make our Detailed Stat Projections work the way you want them to with our Projections Dominator.


1. LAC - RB Melvin Gordon wants deal or trade

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Updating an earlier report, Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon informed the team he wants a new contract or to be traded.

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Gordon is playing on his fifth-year option in 2019 with a fully guaranteed, one-year salary of $5.6 million. Looking around the league, we can't imagine any team too interested in trading for him. Gordon is a good starter, but he's only played a full 16-game regular season once (2017) in his career. Trading for and then paying close to top dollar for a running back doesn't sound like a plan for success. We think the Chargers end up getting something done, but Gordon might miss time in training camp and perhaps even into the preseason.

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2. SF - TE George Kittle receives high praise

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Josh Alper

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle reminds QB Jimmy Garoppolo a lot of Rob Gronkowski - both on and off the field - according to Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News.'There are a lot of similarities - on the field and a little bit off the field, too. George is tremendous. The energy he brings every day, how he goes about his business - he's always having fun while he's doing it. Very similar to Gronk, they both enjoy what they do. It makes everything more enjoyable. It's fun to be around, and it's contagious. To have a guy like that makes our team so much closer as well as much better,' Garoppolo said.

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Kittle had a huge breakout season in 2018, catching 88 passes for 1,377 yards and five touchdowns. It will be interesting to see what he can do for an encore this year, especially if Garoppolo stays healthy. Fantasy GMs expecting 80 catches and around 1,000 receiving yards aren't too far off in their projections. Kittle has a current ADP of TE3 (3.09) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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3. PHI - RB Corey Clement the third-down back?

Source: PhillyVoice.com - Jimmy Kempski

Philadelphia Eagles RB Corey Clement is the frontrunner to replace free-agent RB Darren Sproles (Eagles) on passing downs, according to Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com.

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Watch this competition unfold in training camp. The Eagles have Jordan Howard as their lead back, but he's not going to be targeted that much in the passing game. Rookie Miles Sanders could be the primary backup and change-of-pace back...if he can prove to be more capable than a guy like Clement. Stay tuned as the No. 2 running back in Philly could have flex appeal in PPR leagues.

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4. NYJ - De'Angelo Henderson pushing for time

Source: The Athletic - Connor Hughes

New York Jets RB De'Angelo Henderson worked ahead of RB Trenton Cannon during OTAs and began to share reps with RB Elijah McGuire.

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Henderson has a low center of gravity and can run inside better than some think. We'll see if he can beat out Cannon for perhaps the final spot in the RB depth chart. The Jets are stacked at the position with Le'Veon Bell, Eli McGuire, Ty Montgomery and Bilal Powell (in addition to Henderson and Cannon). We'll see this pecking order behind Bell established in the preseason.

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5. HOU - WR DeAndre Hopkins scoring at will

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Clay

Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins has scored 24 touchdowns in 31 games since the start of the 2017 season.

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Hopkins is one of the most consistent superstars in the league, regardless of position. In 2018 he had 11 games of 10+ targets with seven 100-yard games. That consistency and elite skill set makes him the top fantasy WR once again. It's not crazy to pick Hopkins up with a top-5 pick in any format. Hopkins has a current ADP of WR1 (1.06) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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6. NO - WR Michael Thomas in a league of his own

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Clay

New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas has logged 321 receptions since entering the NFL, and he is the only player in league history to record at least 300 catches in his first three seasons.

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Thomas should have never fallen to the second round of the draft. He's simply one of the best and brightest stars in the NFL today. In late June, Thomas and the Saints were trying to get a new deal done that would make him one of the highest paid receivers in the league. Thomas has a current ADP is WR3 (1.10) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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7. DAL - RB Ezekiel Elliott in rare company

Source: ESPN.com - Kevin Seifert

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott's 5,247 yards from scrimmage are the fourth most by a player before their 24th birthday in NFL history.

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Elliott is one of the best backs in the game, and he certainly could be on a Hall of Fame track -- even after just three seasons as a pro. If he stays healthy and stays out of trouble, Elliott will continue to produce at a high level. We'll see if the Cowboys work out a long-term contract with Elliott that makes him one of the highest paid running backs in the league. He's under contract through 2020 and could be a candidate for a franchise tag in 2021 if no deal is done.

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8. HOU - QB Deshaun Watson a TD machine

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Clay

Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson has accounted for 52 touchdowns, 45 passing and seven rushing, in 23 career games.

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Watson is a touchdown machine and one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. Fantasy GMs are over the moon about what the Texans passing game can be in 2019, especially if everyone stays healthy. Watson has a current ADP of QB4 (5.11) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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9. DEN - TE Jeff Heuerman, TE Noah Fant starting options

Source: 9News.com - Mike Klis

Denver Broncos TEs Jeff Heuerman and Noah Fant will compete for the starting tight end job during training camp, but Heuerman will enter camp as the clear favorite for the job, in the opinion of 9News.com's Mike Klis.

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Heuerman is the veteran the team brought back as a free agent earlier this year. Fant is their first-round pick from the 2019 NFL draft and he's the future of the position. Joe Flacco loves to throw to the tight end and this Shanahan/Kubiak offense under new OC Rich Scangarello is going to be tight end friendly. We think Fant should win the job and provides upside as a low-end TE2 for Fantasy GMs.

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10. DEN - TE Jake Butt may be limited early

Source: 9News.com - Mike Klis

Denver Broncos TE Jake Butt (knee) likely will be able to participated in some team drills at the start of training camp.

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Butt has been limited this offseason. He's coming back from the third knee injury of his football career. Butt has looked good in limited action this offseason but clearly is an injury risk. If healthy, he should be in the mix behind Jeff Heuerman and rookie Noah Fant.

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11. JAX - Marcus Simms officially signed

Source: Jaguars.com - John Oehser

Undrafted free-agent WR Marcus Simms (West Virginia) signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday, July 11. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.

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We'll watch Simms in deep dynasty formats. Scouts loved his natural talent, but there were some character concerns according to reports that kept him from getting selected in the Supplemental Draft on Wednesday. He's a good vertical threat who can work as a return man as well. Simms had 46 catches for 699 yards and two touchdowns last season for the Mountaineers.

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12. IND - Mo Alie-Cox to play around 20 snaps?

Source: 1070 The Fan - Kevin Bowen

Indianapolis Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox could play around 20 snaps per game in 2019, according to Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan.

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We'll monitor Alie-Cox in dynasty formats. The former basketball player from Virginia Commonwealth has been running as the first-team tight end in OTAs and minicamp with both Eric Ebron (groin) and Jack Doyle (hip) recovering from injuries. This offseason has been full of positive reports about Alie-Cox, and Fantasy GMs in dynasty leagues need to know that Eric Ebron is in the final year of his deal with the Colts.

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13. ARI - WR Hakeem Butler could surprise as a rookie

Source: The Arizona Republic - Bob McManaman

Arizona Cardinals WR Hakeem Butler was listed as the 'potential breakout performer' among the team's receivers and tight ends by The Arizona Republic's Bob McManaman, who writes that Butler's size, speed and intangibles could make him the surprise player 'of the entire bunch.' McManaman also lists Butler's offseason work with retired WR Calvin Johnson as a reason he could make an impact in 2019.

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A Matt Waldman favorite, Butler has great measurables, elite skill in contested situations, and excellent power and balance as a runner after the catch. He knows how to use his frame to box out smaller defenders and Butler does a good job of getting two-feet down near the sideline or the back of the end zone. We love his stock in dynasty formats.

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14. ARI - WR Chad Williams a long shot to stick

Source: The Arizona Republic - Bob McManaman

Arizona Cardinals WR Chad Williams is unlikely to make the 53-man roster, according to The Arizona Republic's Bob McManaman, who writes that even if the team carries seven receivers it's 'doubtful' that Williams would be on the list.

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A third-round pick out of Grambling State in the 2017 NFL draft, Williams has had plenty of time to develop in the pros, but he's only played in 16 games over two seasons. Williams might be shopped this summer as the Cardinals are jam-packed at the WR position. Rookies KeeSean Johnson, Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler should round out the depth chart behind Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk.

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That'll do it for today, Folks.

Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J