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Footballguys #126 - 8/25 - Draft Plans, Tier Breaks, News and Notes and MORE

Volume 20, #126 -- Saturday Night, August 25th, 2018

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Howdy Folks,

Welcome to Sunday and it's DRAFT DAY for tons of you. Loads of Draft Content plus the News and Notes for you.

Let's do this.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Beneath The Numbers
Our David Dodds with insight into the situations impacting his projections this year.

B. The Perfect Draft Updated
Our David Dodds with a round-by-round mapped out Value-Based Drafting strategy to dominate your league.

C. The Master Plan
Our Sigmund Bloom with an overview of draft strategy per position and how to fit the strategies together into a master plan.

D. Choose Your Own Adventure Draft - Low Risk
Our Matt Waldman creates three choose-your-own-adventure draft plans based on your risk tolerance. He explores the conservative plan in this post.

E. Choose Your Own Adventure Draft - Moderate Risk
Our Matt Waldman creates three choose-your-own-adventure draft plans based on your risk tolerance. He explores the moderate-risk plan in this post.

F. Choose Your Own Adventure Draft - High Risk
Our Matt Waldman creates three choose-your-own-adventure draft plans based on your risk tolerance. He explores the high-risk plan in this post.

G. FREE Feature - Footballguys Mock Draft 10: 12-team PPR Auction
On August 18th, seven members of the Footballguys staff and five non-staff got together mock auction draft featuring tight end premium scoring.

H. Projection Reflections: Preseason Week 2 Adjustments
Our Jason Wood with a look at the key projections changes after the second week of the preseason.

I. Updated PPR Top 250
Our Sigmund Bloom runs down the top 250 players to draft in PPR leagues, updated through Week 3 of the preseason.

J. Critical Tier Drops: Wide Receivers
Our Chad Parsons identifies the key value drop off points among 2018 wide receivers.

K. Critical Tier Drops: Tight Ends
Our Chad Parsons identifies the key value drop off points among 2018 tight ends.


1. JAX - WR Marqise Lee carted off

Source: Jaguars.com - John Oehser

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Marqise Lee (knee, leg) was carted off the field with an apparent knee and/or leg injury in Week 3 of the preseason Saturday, Aug. 25.

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This looked like a potentially serious injury but it's too early to make any significant proclamations on the impact NFL or fantasy-wise. But we'll keep a close eye on you and have analysis when there is more information.

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2. CLE - WR Josh Gordon likely to sit out preseason

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon (hamstring) probably will not be able to play in the final preseason game because of his hamstring injury, but the team is hoping Gordon will be ready for Week 1.

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Gordon's upside is massive, though his baggage is pretty significant. We're bullish on him, and think Tyrod Taylor is going to do right by him. He's tracking an ADP of 23rd receiver overall off the board, which shows Fantasy GMs have as many concerns as we do, though if he hits his upside, he'll likely outplay that spot. He carries plenty of risk given his off-field issues though.

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3. CLE - WR Josh Gordon works on a side field

Source: Akron Beacon Journal - Nate Ulrich

Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon, activated from the Active/Non-Footbal Injury list earlier in the day, was working out on a side field during the open portion of practice Saturday, Aug. 25.

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The Browns are working Gordon back into action and following a plan. Gordon is dealing with hamstring tightness, so his availability for the final preseason game is up in the air at this point.

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4. NYG - TE Evan Engram in protocol

Source: New York Post - Paul Schwartz

New York Giants TE Evan Engram (concussion) is going through the concussion protocol after he suffered a concussion in the preseason game Friday, Aug. 24.

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Provided that he works through the protocol without setback, Engram should be ready for the start of the regular season. As a rookie in 2017, Engram also had a concussion (Week 2 against the Lions) but didn't miss any playing time due to that injury.

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5. SF - RB Alfred Morris a pleasant surprise

Source: NFL

San Francisco 49ers RB Alfred Morris ran for 84 yards on 17 carries in his first game as a 49er Saturday, Aug. 25, against the Indianapolis Colts.

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Matt Breida and Jerick McKinnon are out so Morris gets the nod and shows why he still could be a value for NFL teams and Fantasy GMs. He's not being drafted at all in standard redraft leagues which makes sense as McKinnon is expected back in Week 1, but he's someone worth a very late flier or keeping an eye on off the waiver wire if he makes the roster.

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6. IND - TE Eric Ebron lights up stat card

Source: NFL

Indianapolis Colts TE Eric Ebron managed five catches for 54 yards and a score Saturday, Aug. 25, against the San Francisco 49ers.

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Ebron has teased plenty of times before but it looks like this time Fantasy GMs aren't biting, as he is tracking at an ADP of 22nd tight end off the board and 190th player overall. We think outperforms that, which makes him a value at his current price.

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7. IND - QB Andrew Luck solid in dress rehearsal

Source: NFL

Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck threw for 90 yards and a touchdown in what was the best game of his preseason Saturday, Aug. 25, versus the San Francisco 49ers.

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At this point, it seems that like John Wick, Andrew Luck is back and appears to be as deadly as the assassin from those movies. Luck looks like the old Luck and that has to make most Fantasy players happy. His offensive line might even keep him upright this season, making his ADP of 9th overall quarterback taken seem like a pretty solid value.

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8. TEN - QB Marcus Mariota struggles

Source: NFL

Tennessee Titans QB Marcus Mariota threw his first interception of the preseason and was noticeably off target in limited playing time Saturday, Aug. 25, against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Preseason is when you want mistakes because it's a safe time to fix them and learn from them. We aren't worried he looked off, it was bound to happen. We'd like to see him bounce back from a bad 2017, but we aren't ready to go all in on him. His ADP of 18th receiver overall marks him as someone GMs are thinking will be a solid QB2 and we agree.

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9. SF - WR Marquise Goodwin back on field

Source: NBC Sports Bay Area - Matt Maiocco

Updating a previous report, San Francisco 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin (hand) returned to the preseason game Saturday, Aug.25, after missing some time because of a hand injury.

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This will relieve Fantasy GMs a bit, and may keep his ADP at around 30th receiver off the board. That he left with a wrist issue is a concern given his durability issues, but it seems like the worst did not come to pass and he will be around Week 1.

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10. CHI - WR Kevin White finds end zone

Source: NFL.com

Chicago Bears WR Kevin White caught two passes for 33 yards and one touchdown in the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25.

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White has talent but not much durability, and has played just five games in two years, catching just 21 balls for 193 yards. That's not a resume to get excited about, and we are not recommending having him on your roster even in deeper leagues.

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11. CHI - WR Taylor Gabriel able to play

Source: NFL.com

Chicago Bears WR Taylor Gabriel (foot) caught one pass for 10 yards in the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25.

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The injury history of Kevin White and the unknown of Allen Robinson's recovery leave the door open for Gabriel to do more than what we initially expected when the Bears signed Robinson and then drafted Anthony Miller. That said, we don't have enough faith in the offense to think it will amount to much, though he is worth keeping an eye on in case injuries strike.

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12. KC - RB Spencer Ware makes preseason debut

Source: KCChiefs.com - B.J. Kissel

Kansas City Chiefs RB Spencer Ware (knee) made his preseason debut Saturday, Aug. 25 against the Chicago Bears. He ran three times for three yards while adding two grabs for 18 yards on three targets.

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With Kareem Hunt and coming off a torn PCL and LCL in 2017, Ware isn't expected to have much of an impact. Damien Williams and Kerwynn Williams are in town now and will be passing down backs, and we aren't sure what the pecking order would be if Hunt goes down. At this point, we'd avoid picking any of them up, even as a handcuff.

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13. KC - RB Kareem Hunt scores before checking out

Source: 1 No Source

Kansas City Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt ran three times for seven yards in the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25 against the Chicago Bears while adding a 19-yard touchdown on his only catch and target.

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Hunts production in 2017 paralleled the health of his line. When it was good, he totaled at least 100 yards from scrimmage, and when they were hurting, he failed to do so. His ADP is s 7th back off the board, which means Fantasy GMs believe he will see more of the former than the latter this year.

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14. KC - WR Tyreek Hill in midseason form

Source: 1 No Source

Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill posted eight receptions for 88 yards on his eight targets in the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25 against the Chicago Bears.

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Hill had an exceptional 2017, and we believe with Pat Mahomes under center he could be as good. Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce might eat into his targets a bit, keeps him from being a sure bet as a WR1. His ADP is as the 10th receiver off the board, so Fantasy GMs see the potential in him though, and are deeming his upside worth the risk.

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15. KC - Patrick Mahomes sharp in preseason loss

Source: 1 No Source

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes completed 18 of his 24 pass attempts for 196 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25 against the Chicago Bears.

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Mahomes has looked good so far in the preseason, and his big arm should allow him to make some significant plays. That said, with the big plays will occasionally come big mistakes, since his gunslinger mentality involves a lot of risks.

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16. CLE - QB Baker Mayfield to play Thursday

Source: Akron Beacon Journal - Nate Ulrich

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield will play in the preseason finale against the Detroit Lions on Thursday, Aug. 30.

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Mayfield looks like he is on the right track, but the Browns look determined to stick with Tyrod Taylor for now. Drafting Mayfield now doesn't make any sense in redraft, as he may not see the field any time soon. Keep an eye on him for later in the season, though, as if the Browns struggle - and they are likely to - the team will give Mayfield a shot.

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17. PIT - WR Antonio Brown to sit again

Source: NFL Network - Dan Hellie

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown (quadriceps) will not play in the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25.

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We don't need to see Brown, and as his ADP hovers at 5th overall in drafts and the first receiver off the board. Ben Roethlisberger looks too him often and even with Le'Veon Bell's presence in Week 1 in doubt, Brown will still perform.

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18. LAR - No RB Todd Gurley for Saturday's game

Source: TheRams.com - Myles Simmons

Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley will be held out of the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25 against the Houston Texans.

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As Jared Goff began to ascend, so to did Todd Gurley's. Which makes sense, as a rising tide raises all boats and a more effective passing game opens up defenses for a running back. Gurley is a guy who is going off the board first overall, and it's a safe bet he'll live up to that billing.

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19. LAR - QB Jared Goff to rest on Saturday

Source: TheRams.com - Myles Simmons

Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff will not play in the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25 against the Houston Texans.

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The Rams know what they have in Goff, and given how he played last year they won't risk him if they don't have to. Fantasy GMs don't need to see him either, as we already know he's a solid QB2 with upside due to how improved he was in 2017 as well as a new weapon in the form of Brandin Cooks. His ADP sits at 15 right now, and he's going 106th overall, right in the middle of drafts and about where he should be.

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20. CHI - WR Marlon Brown may have concussion

Source: ChicagoBears.com

Chicago Bears WR Marlon Brown (head) left the preseason game early Saturday, Aug. 25, and is being evaluated for a concussion.

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Brown was a long shot to make the 53-man roster. The veteran receiver has bounced around the league after having early-career success back in 2013 with the Ravens when he had 49 catches for 524 yards and seven touchdowns.

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21. CLE - WR Antonio Callaway returns to practice

Source: Akron Beacon Journal - Nate Ulrich

Cleveland Browns WR Antonio Callaway (groin) was able to return to the practice field on Saturday, Aug. 25.

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Callaway was held out of the team's third preseason game due to this injury. Groin injuries can linger if not given time to heal, and Callaway needs to be at full strength in order to showcase his amazing explosiveness with the ball in his hands. Josh Gordon's return does take some fantasy value away from the rookie, but he should see time in three-WR sets with Gordon and Jarvis Landry.

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22. CLE - No practice for TE David Njoku

Source: Akron Beacon Journal - Nate Ulrich

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku (ankle) did not practice Saturday, Aug. 25 due to an ankle injury.

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Njoku won't play in the final preseason game, so he wraps up the exhibition portion of the calendar with six catches, 71 yards and two touchdowns. We love his natural athleticism and strength at the position, and the Browns should feature him in their passing game along with target hog Jarvis Landry. Njoku is getting drafted as a borderline TE1 by Fantasy GMs right now (TE11, 9.07), but the upside to be an every week starter is there in 2018.

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23. CLE - QB Tyrod Taylor practices on Saturday

Source: Akron Beacon Journal - Nate Ulrich

Cleveland Browns quarterback Tyrod Taylor (finger) is practicing on Saturday, Aug. 25.

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Taylor missed a few snaps after sustaining the injury, but he was able to come back into the game. His left hand is wrapped after suffering a dislocated pinkie finger against the Philadelphia Eagles in a preseason game on Thursday, Aug. 23. His status for Week 1 of the regular season is not in doubt. Taylor is the Browns starter for the beginning of the season, but we know Baker Mayfield is set to take over as their franchise quarterback at some point.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of the Footballguys Family. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace.

J