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Footballguys #124 - 8/23 - Sleepers You Need To Know About, The Value Of Custom Cheatsheets, News and Notes and MORE

Volume 20, #124 -- Thursday Night, August 23rd, 2018

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Howdy Folks,

Welcome to Friday. I know tons of you are drafting tonight and tomorrow and we've got a ton of stuff you need right now. Let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Beneath the Numbers: 50 Takes from doing Projections
Our David Dodds with killer insights learned as he's built detailed stat projections for players all spring and summer.

B. The 2018 All-Gut Check Sleeper Team
Our Matt Waldman reveals his 2018 All-Gut Check Fantasy Team; a squad of the 30 overlooked, underrated, and dismissed options who will have your competition laughing now but congratulating you later.

C. Why Custom Cheatsheets Are The Key To Your Success
I'm not being dramatic when I say this might be the most important article we've done this year. It's that important.

D. There's Still Time For The Footballguys Giveaway
The 2018 Footballguys GiveAway is open for a couple more days. Jump in now with your entry. Plus get additional entries. Prizes include a Lifetime Footballguys Premium Subscription, a 45 Minute Video Conference Call with some of the Footballguys Staff, a killer Trophy Belt from our friends at FantasyJocks.com and a custom personalized video from our friend Matthew Berry where he'll talk smack to your league. See details here.

E. FREE Feature - 2018 Fantasy Football Auction Draft Roundtable
Footballguys staffers get together to give advice on auction drafting.

F. FREE Feature - Footballguys Mock Draft 5: 12-team, 6-point TD Passes
Six members of the Footballguys staff, along with six writers in the industry got together and completed a 12-team PPR mock draft where touchdown passes equal 6 points.

G. Footballguys DFS Power Grid Preseason Week 3
The Power Grid locks in their Daily Fantasy picks for the preseason Week 3 Friday night slate. Footballguys staffers Austin Lee, John Lee, Devin Knotts, and Ryan Hester discuss preseason strategy and debate Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Leggett, and many more!

H. 10 ADP Risers: Are we Sure we Have it Right?
Our Phil Alexander with 10 players whose ADP has spiked since August 1st and whether or not you should draft them at their rising costs.

I. Critical Tier Drops: Quarterbacks
Our Chad Parsons identifies the key value drop off points among 2018 quarterbacks.

J. Dynasty Strategy Roundtable: The August Rookie Landscape
The Footballguys staff weighs in on how to assess rookies leading up to Week 1.


1. CLE - QB Tyrod Taylor briefly leaves game then returns

Source: ClevelandBrowns.com

Cleveland Browns QB Tyrod Taylor (hand) left the preseason game early Thursday, Aug. 23, because of a left hand injury but was able to return to the game.

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When the injury it happened, it looked bad enough that we sent an update to you letting you know about it. But fortunately, Taylor returned quickly and went back in the game.

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2. CLE - WR Josh Gordon may play in finale

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon may play in the final preseason game if he is cleared to practice in the next few days, according to head coach Hue Jackson.

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Gordon could use some reps and we would like to see him a bit before the season kicks off. As he has come closer to returning, his ADP rose, and it currently sits at 23rd receiver off the board. We think he's safe at this ADP and the upside is pretty huge. Gordon could easily outstrip that if Tyrod Taylor plays well and the offense clicks like we think it can.

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3. PIT - QB Ben Roethlisberger on track to play

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Gerry Dulac

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will play in the third preseason game after sitting out the first two preseason games, according to head coach Mike Tomlin.

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With the weapons he has, Roethlisberger is always going to put up some decent fantasy points. However, you know he will miss some time and further, he has absolutely started showing his age. The negatives make him a QB2, but his overall ability and weapons make him a high QB2 for fantasy owners and a reliable option once the surefire QB1s are gone.

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4. PIT - WR Antonio Brown a game-time decision

Source: NFL Network - Aditi Kinkhabwala

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown (quadriceps) has been limited during practice this week and will be a game-time decision for the third preseason game.

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We don't need to see anything from fantasy football's number one wide receiver. Neither do the Fantasy GMs who are presently taking him as the first receiver and one of the first five picks overall in drafts.

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5. ARI - QB Josh Rosen on field Thursday

Source: AZCardinals.com - Darren Urban

Arizona Cardinals QB Josh Rosen (thumb) was on the field during practice Thursday, Aug. 23, but did not appear to be throwing during the open portion of practice.

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Rosen isn't likely to see the field any time soon, but we all know Sam Bradford is a fragile quarterback. So if you have Bradford as a backup on your fantasy squad, you'd better have Rosen or another solid backup to your backup on speed dial. Generally speaking we wouldn't trust Bradford on our roster due to injury history and his general play, which is mostly average. His ADP of 32nd quarterback overall makes us feel most Fantasy GMs agree.

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6. NYG - Odell Beckham moving closer to deal?

Source: ESPN.com - Jordan Raanan

New York Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. has made some progress in contract extension talks with the Giants, and both sides believe a deal could be agreed to before the start of the regular season, according to sources.

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This will get done. In the meanwhile, don't get scared off Beckham, who is arguably the best receiver in the NFL and absolutely one of the top two in fantasy.

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7. LAR - QB Jared Goff uncertain for Saturday

Source: ESPN.com - Lindsey Thiry

Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff (rest) is uncertain for the team's next preseason game Saturday, Aug. 25, against the Houston Texans, according to head coach Sean McVay.

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There's no reason for Goff to play, though more time to acclimate with Brandin Cooks is always good. Goff isn't reliable enough for a QB1 spot, but he's a solid QB2 with upside and his ADP of 15th quarterback off the board is right about where it should be. With the weapons he has, in his second year in this offense, he could outperform it too.

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8. TEN - TE Delanie Walker sits again

Source: PaulKuharsky.com - Paul Kuharsky

Tennessee Titans TE Delanie Walker (toe) did not participate in practice Thursday, Aug. 23.

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Despite the injury, which has kept him on ice for a lot of the last few weeks, he is still coming off the board as the 7th tight end in fantasy drafts. We think he'll be fine, but make sure you have a solid option to back him up.

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9. NYG - 'Not a doubt' WR Cody Latimer is No. 3 WR

Source: ESPN.com - Jordan Raanan

New York Giants WR Cody Latimer will be the team's No. 3 wide receiver going into the season and there's 'not a doubt' in that declaration, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com.

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There are so many mouths to feed here, we don't expect Latimer to make a splash. He's a big dude with a nice catch radius but he's behind fellow wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard, as well as tight end Evan Engram and rookie running back Saquon Barkley. There's just too much in front of him which is why he's going undrafted in fantasy drafts, and rightfully so.

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10. TEN - WR Rishard Matthews had surgery

Source: PaulKuharsky.com - Paul Kuharsky

Tennessee Titans WR Rishard Matthews (knee) had surgery earlier this month to repair a torn meniscus in his knee but could be activated from the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list as soon as next week, according to sources.

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Meanwhile, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor, as well as Tajae Sharpe have all performed well in his absence and even if Matthews comes back, he's likely to be an afterthought. Even at an ADP of 56th receiver off the board, we are hesitant on him.

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11. MIN - RB Dalvin Cook preparing to play Friday

Source: The Associated Press - Jon Krawczynski

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (knee) is 'preparing to play' in the team's next preseason game Friday, Aug. 24, against the Seattle Seahawks. It would be his first game action since tearing his anterior cruciate ligament last October.

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We don't expect to see him a ton in his first game back but Cook is looking like a guy who could have a tremendous season. Currently the 10th back off the board in fantasy drafts, and the 14th player overall, Cook is pricey but the upside is tremendous.

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12. MIA - RB Kalen Ballage back on field

Source: Sun-Sentinel - Omar Kelly

Miami Dolphins RB Kalen Ballage (concussion) was limited during practice Thursday, Aug. 23, but is still in the concussion protocol.

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Ballage is a super intriguing player and we're glad to see him back on the field. We still see Drake and Gore as the guys here though.

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13. PIT - TE Vance McDonald hopes to play in opener

Source: ESPN.com - Jeremy Fowler

Pittsburgh Steelers TE Vance McDonald (foot) said he hopes to able to play in Week 1 but does not want to go into detail regarding his foot injury.

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McDonald has been out since mid-July. He's not anyone we are wasting a roster spot on right now, especially with as many other options as the Steelers have.

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14. GB - QB Aaron Rodgers not expected to play

Source: NFL Network - Mike Garafolo

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is not expected to play in the third preseason game, according to sources.

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We saw how bad the team was without him last year, so why risk him now? Nobody needs to see more of him to know he is arguably the top fantasy option at the position nor that the 27th overall player selection is worth it for his fantasy services. The team does need to figure out if Brett Hundley or DeShone Kizer are worth keeping as they won't have both on the roster, so we will see a lot of them.

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15. BUF - QB AJ McCarron does some throwing

Source: BuffaloBills.com - Chris Brown

Buffalo Bills QB AJ McCarron (collarbone) did some light throwing during individual drills Thursday, Aug. 23.

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It seems like there was just enough time to give rookie Josh Allen the edge in this battle. We won't have either one on a redraft roster this year, even though Allen at least has upside.

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16. IND - RB Marlon Mack uncertain for Week 1

Source: The Athletic - Stephen Holder

Indianapolis Colts RB Marlon Mack's (hamstring) status for Week 1 is uncertain at this point, but head coach Frank Reich said the team is optimistic about his timetable.

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Could this be a chance for Nyheim Hines? The third round rookie has done well in camp and is really versatile, which gives him enough value to hover at 54th running back selected in drafts. Mack is a more traditional looking back (and is going as the 34th back off the board) and if he returns, is likely more what the Colts want as a lead back. It's worth watching Hines though, especially with Robert Turbin suspended to start the season.

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17. LAR - RB Todd Gurley no go for preseason

Source: ESPN.com - Lindsey Thiry

Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley (rest) will not play at all this preseason, according to head coach Sean McVay.

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Nobody needs to see Gurley and the Rams are just being cautious. It's a marathon for them, not a sprint and for a Super Bowl hopeful, they need all their horses to have a shot at the big game. He's going off the board as the first back and first pick overall in drafts and well worth the price in this dynamic offense.

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18. DAL - Consecutive practices for WR Cole Beasley

Source: The Athletic - Calvin Watkins

Dallas Cowboys WR Cole Beasley (groin) is participating in his second consecutive practice Thursday, Aug. 23.

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As rookie Michael Gallup shines and Allen Hurns gets settled, Beasley seems to have seen his star fade. His ADP hovers at 88 for receivers and 275 overall, which is enough to make us think that Fantasy GMs are as cool to him as we are.

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19. KC - WR Sammy Watkins, Patrick Mahomes meshing

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Josh Alper

Kansas City Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins is building a strong relationship with QB Patrick Mahomes, according to offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy said the pair's communication and rhythm is starting to sync and that Watkins is progressing.

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This is good news for Watkins, who has disappointed for most of his brief career so far. He fits Mahomes' game well and could finally emerge as having some value. He's going off the board as the 29th receiver in fantasy drafts right now, and that value seems about right given his history and the hot and cold streaky quarterback he has. Still, Watkins has shown more ability than that ADP, and has some nice upside because of it.

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20. NE - WR Phillip Dorsett could have larger role

Source: Worcester Telegram and Gazette - Rich Garven

New England Patriots WR Phillip Dorsett is on track for a larger role entering his second season with the team. He is the projected starter opposite Chris Hogan to open the regular season. 'I think my comfort level has gotten a lot better,' Dorsett said. 'But you can't get complacent in this offense. Everything changes. There's a lot thrown at you, and they expect the best from you. So if you don't bring your best out there, something bad is going to happen.'

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Fantasy GMs aren't pulling the lever on him on draft day, but he's worth watching on the waiver wire. He is going as the 88th receiver off the board when he does get picked but we wouldn't even burn that spot.

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21. NE - WR Kenny Britt let go

Source: Patriots.com

New England Patriots WR Kenny Britt was officially released Wednesday, Aug. 22.

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Not that long ago, Britt was thought to have a great shot to contribute to the offense. But as has happened a ton in his career before, Britt flamed out. It's hard to imagine him getting another chance.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for sharing some of your summer with us. It's an honor.

Peace and Grace to you.

J