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Footballguys #117 - 8/16 - Perfect Draft, Master Plan, Choose Your Own Adventure, Give-Away and MORE

Volume 20, #117 -- Thursday Night, August 16th, 2018

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Howdy Folks,

Welcome to Friday. Clear your calendar as today is going to be nothing but Fantasy Football for you.

And make sure to check out the ridiculous 2018 Footballguys Give-Away. You're going to want in on this...

Let's go.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Perfect Draft 12 Team PPR
Our David Dodds with the article you've been waiting for. How to have the Perfect Draft. This one is for a 12 Team PPR league.

B. The Master Plan for 2018
Our Sigmund Bloom with an overview of draft strategy per position and how to fit the strategies together into a master plan.

C. Choose Your Adventure Draft Plan (Low Risk)
Our Matt Waldman with another edition of the Gut Check. He's created three choose-your-own-adventure draft plans based on your risk tolerance. He explores the conservative plan in this post.

D. Choose Your Adventure Draft Plan (Moderate Risk)
Our Matt Waldman with another edition of the Gut Check. He's created three choose-your-own-adventure draft plans based on your risk tolerance. He explores the moderate risk plan in this post.

E. Choose Your Adventure Draft Plan (High Risk)
Our Matt Waldman with another edition of the Gut Check. He's created three choose-your-own-adventure draft plans based on your risk tolerance. He explores the high risk plan in this post.

F. The 2018 Footballguys Give-Away - You're gonna wanna be in on this
Get everything you need to Dominate Your Draft and Crush Your League this year. Plus the Belt to remind them who's Boss. And a 45-minute video conference call with the Footballguys Staff to discuss pre-draft strategy. Plus a custom Matthew Berry video talking smack to your league. It's nuts.

G. FREE Feature - Footballguys Mock Draft 4 - 12 team FFPC Best Ball
Six members of the Footballguys staff, along with six writers in the industry got together and completed a 12-team mock draft using FFPC Best Ball format.

H. Ultimate Team By Committee
Our Jeff Pasquino looks into using multiple committees to form a strong fantasy team in a standard league.

I. Ultimate Team By Committee (PPR)
Our Jeff Pasquino looks into using multiple committees to form a strong fantasy team in a standard league. This one is for PPR scoring.

J. Build a Fantasy Football Draft Plan in Reverse
Our Chad Parsons look at how late-round target players dictate early-round strategy in a fantasy football draft.

K. Large-Bench Leagues
Our Jeff Pasquino looks at how to plan for a league with a large bench.

L. Short-Bench League
Our Jeff Pasquino looks at how to plan for a league with a short bench.

M. Defending Reality: Team Defense Scoring
Our Jeff Pasquino with a deeper look at fantasy scoring for team defenses.

N. Best Bets: NFL Team Win Totals
Our Ryan Hester breaks down 2017 results and offseason changes to select the best 2018 NFL win total props.

O. Prepping for Survivor Leagues
Our Jeff Pasquino with Survivor Pool Strategy - Outwit, Outplay, Outlast - Planning Out 17 Weeks of Victories.

P. Survivor Pool Strategy
Our Jeff Pasquino with Survivor Pool Strategy.

Q. FREE Feature - 12 Deep Sleepers at Tight Ends
The Footballguys staff digs deep for sleepers at tight end.

R. 8 Value Plays at Tight Ends
The Footballguys staff finds value at the tight end position.

S. 7 Overvalued Tight Ends
Footballguys staff members discuss tight ends who are overvalued.

T. 2018 NFL Preseason Depth Chart Shuffle: Quarterbacks
Our Chad Parsons outlines the key strong and weak NFL depth charts at the quarterback position in advance of the 53-player roster cuts in 2018.

U. Offensive Line Rankings and Notes: Preseason Week 2
Our Matt Bitonti with updates on injuries and other offensive line related news, prior to week two of the preseason.

V. Draft Dominator Classic For Windows Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic for Windows is updated with new projections and it's ready to roll.

W. Draft Dominator Classic For Mac Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic for Mac is updated with new projections and it's ready to roll.

X. Value Based Drafting Excel App Updated
The Value Based Drafting (VBD) Excel App is updated and ready to roll.

Y. Projections Dominator Updated
Make the projections work the way you want them to with our Projections Dominator.


1. PHI - QB Nick Foles exits with shoulder injury

Source: Philadelphia Inquirer - Jeff McLane

Philadelphia Eagles QB Nick Foles (shoulder) had to exit the team's preseason game Thursday, Aug. 16, against the New England Patriots due to a shoulder strain, according to the club.

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The team is calling it a strain. Stay tuned to see how they proceed. Foles obviously has a huge role depending on how quickly Carson Wentz is ready.

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2. WAS - RB Samaje Perine suffers injury

Source: Redskins.com

Washington Redskins RB Samaje Perine (ankle) left the preseason game early Thursday, Aug. 16, and is being evaluated for an ankle sprain.

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Stay tuned to this one. Rough news for a backfield reeling from the lost of Derrius Guice. Things get thin if Perine were to be limited. And the door opens for Rob Kelly.

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3. NE - RB Rex Burkhead has minor injury

Source: The Athletic - Jeff Howe

New England Patriots RB Rex Burkhead (undisclosed) is dealing with a minor injury but could have played in the preseason game Thursday, Aug. 16, if it was a regular season game, according to a source.

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This is about as much as you can expect from New England on an injury like this. Doesn't look like a big deal.

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4. PIT - QB Ben Roethlisberger good to go

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Gerry Dulac

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is out of the concussion protocol.

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We don't expect to see a ton of him before Week 1, but it seems as if he is out of the woods. He reportedly did not suffer a concussion. Roethlisberger isn't a top fantasy quarterback, but he flirts with top ten numbers many weeks out of the year. He's an outstanding part of a QBBC and a serviceable option as your QB1 if you have a solid backup as well.

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5. SEA - RB Chris Carson the bellcow

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson is the team's bellcow at running back, according to NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport.

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This makes sense as not only is rookie Reshard Penny hurt, but as reported in this week's Footballguys Training Camp Report, his pass protection is shaky. Before his injury, Carson showed last season he could do it all, so the team should have no issue putting him in for a chunk of carries. His ADP stands at 43rd back off the board, with an overall spot of 118, which makes him a nice buy-low option right now. We expect that a healthy Penny will come in for his share of carries, but Carson isn't going anywhere and has plenty of value.

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6. TEN - TE Delanie Walker exits

Source: TitansOnline.com - Jim Wyatt

Tennessee Titans TE Delanie Walker (undisclosed) left practice Thursday, Aug. 16.

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After you get through the obvious guys -- Travis Kelce, Rob Gronwkowski, and the like -- Walker is often a sneaky-effective tight end option. So this injury is a concern and one we will watch closely. Reports have updated that this is a toe injury, so it's hard to know how serious it is. We'll keep you up to date but we are cautiously optimistic he will be back before the season starts.

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7. NYG - RB Saquon Barkley idle Thursday

Source: New York Post - Paul Schwartz

New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring) is out of practice again Thursday, Aug. 16.

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Nothing to see here, move along. As much as the Giants desperately need his help in the regular season, they won't risk him a ton in preseason. He's going as a top ten fantasy running back, and while that's always a little scary with rookies, we think his talent warrants it, hamstring issues or not.

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8. SEA - RB Rashaad Penny may miss regular season action

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Updating a previous report, Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny (finger) possibly might miss 'a game or two' to open up the regular season, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

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The timetable for his recovery is around 3-4 weeks from now. That means his status for Week 1 against the Broncos is very much in question. Even though Pete Carroll is optimistic about the situation, Fantasy GMs should plan on the rookie first-round pick missing some time. Chris Carson could begin the season as the starter for Seattle.

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9. GB - RB Jamaal Williams Ankle Injury

Source: PackersWire - Zach Kruse

Packers running back Jamaal Williams suffered an ankle injury in Thursday's game.

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We'll be looking for information here Friday morning on Williams. We've been projecting Williams to lead the backfield in Green Bay.

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10. NE - OL Isaiah Wynn Carted Off With Ankle Injury

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Patriots' first-round pick, OL Isaiah Wynn was carted off with an ankle injury.

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There seems to be some question as to whether it's an Achilles or ankle injury. Either way, the cart is not good. Stay tuned here.

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11. OAK - DE Khalil Mack to miss another game

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Oakland Raiders DE Khalil Mack will not report to the team before their second preseason game, which means he will be fined an additional $814,000, according to a source. It does not appear that the two sides are close to any resolution.

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This is baffling. As bad as that defense was in 2017, how much worse will it be minus Mack? Seems like the right move is to either trade him or get this deal done. When he's back, no matter what team, he's a great IDP asset.

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12. NE - WR Kenny Britt remains injured

Source: Boston Herald - Kevin Duffy

New England Patriots WR Kenny Britt (hamstring) is still recovering from a hamstring injury he suffered on June 5. He hasn't taken any reps in one-on-one or team drills.

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Britt hasn't lived up to his original billing and we aren't expecting that to change. Britt probably isn't worth rostering at this point unless someone gets hurt.

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13. MIN - RB Dalvin Cook's status uncertain

Source: Minneapolis Star Tribune - Ben Goessling

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook's (knee) status for the second preseason game has not been announced yet, but head coach Mike Zimmer said he has decided if Cook will play.

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We are anxious to see Cook play but there's no rush. We know he's a high-end RB2 with upside when healthy and reports are he is exactly that. His ADP is right at 10, and he should be a safe bet to at least meet that.

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14. DAL - RB Tavon Austin unsure about playing status

Source: The Dallas Morning News - Jon Machota

Dallas Cowboys WR Tavon Austin (hamstring) said he is feeling good but is not sure if the coaches will allow him to play in the second preseason game.

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We're not sure what role he will play whenever he gets on the field, as he is listed at both running back and receiver depending on who you ask. They say he's not a gadget player. We'll see.

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15. LAC - Forrest Lamp has been limited

Source: ESPN.com - Eric D. Williams

Los Angeles Chargers OG Forrest Lamp (knee) has been limited to mostly individual drills since returning to practice this week.

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The Chargers always have offensive line drama. They really need Lamp to come back as their other options behind him aren't great and Philip Rivers deserves a good offensive line.

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16. CLE - WR Dez Bryant, CLE may not get deal done now

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Free-agent WR Dez Bryant's (Cowboys) visit with the Cleveland Browns Thursday, Aug. 16, may be more about the two sides getting to know each other better than it is to reach a contract agreement, according to a source. Bryant is believed to be looking for a one-year deal, which would allow him to show he is still a Pro Bowl-caliber player.

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What role Bryant has is a big question here and it hinges upon what happens with Antonio Calloway and any potential suspension and when Josh Gordon returns. Bryant looks like a shadow of himself, but he might provide a little bit of production as a very late-round flier in deeper leagues.

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17. LAC - QB Philip Rivers to play in preseason game

Source: Los Angeles Daily News - Jack Wang

Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers will play in the second preseason game Saturday, Aug. 16. Rivers did not play in the first preseason game.

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Rivers is a criminally underrated quarterback and by the looks of his ADP - 16th quarterback off the board -- he will be in fantasy as well. We think he is a nice value at that price point, and with Keenan Allen healthy plus Tyrell and Mike Williams available, he has plenty of weapons even without Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry.

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18. CIN - RB Joe Mixon back on field

Source: The Cincinnati Enquirer - Paul Dehner Jr.

Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon (undisclosed) participated in practice Thursday, Aug. 16, despite leaving practice early Wednesday, Aug. 15.

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We feel Mixon can be a workhorse, so it's good to see him back on the field. While his rookie season suffered from bad offensive line play and inconsistent use, he still amassed over 600 yards. With Jeremy Hill gone, we think he will see more work and with a better offensive line he should see his 3.5 yards per carry rise as well. His ADP of 15th RB taken seems dead on and his upside could make it a bit of a value by season's end.

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19. SEA - WR Doug Baldwin sprinting

Source: The Athletic - Michael-Shawn Dugar

Seattle Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin (knee) was seen doing sprints off to the side during practice Thursday, Aug. 16.

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The Seahawks aren't rushing Baldwin back since they are using the time to look at the rest of their receivers. They know what he is, and so do Fantasy GMs, by the look of his ADP as 11th overall WR. He'll be fine and he will be a big target again this year.

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20. SEA - WR Tyler Lockett not practicing

Source: The Seattle Times - Bob Condotta

Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (leg) was held out of practice Thursday, Aug. 16, after being kicked in the leg Wednesday, Aug. 15.

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If Lockett didn't have bad luck on the injury front, he wouldn't have any. He'll have a shot to hold onto the No. 2 spot in the wide receiving corps, but needs to be on the field for it to work. He has shown potential before but never consistently. Even if he sees an active role, we aren't expecting him to do more than his ADP of 62nd receiver off the board.

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21. SEA - RB Mike Davis returns

Source: The Seattle Times - Bob Condotta

Seattle Seahawks RB Mike Davis (toe) was back at practice Thursday, Aug. 16, after being sidelined Wednesday, Aug. 15.

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Davis had to get back on the field, as he's in a battle for the No. 3 spot in the backfield. Rookie Rashaard Penny has locked up the No. 2 spot and it appears as if Chris Carson is in control of the top position. Penny and Carson will probably share carries, and Davis -- or whomever survives to get that third spot -- is likely to only come in on occasion to spell them unless there is an injury. There's no need to roster him, but it's worth watching as Seattle has had running backs burst on the scene before.

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22. CIN - Status quo for WR A.J. Green

Source: The Cincinnati Enquirer - Jim Owczarski

Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green feels great and says he runs the most of anybody in practice at age 30. 'I ain't an old man,' Green said. 'I've always got juice. I've had it for a long time. I'm not going anywhere any time soon.'

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The forgotten fantasy receiver, Green is an elite talent who is overlooked because of younger and more talented guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr, as well as super-talents in good situations like Antonio Brown. Green is very talented, but his team isn't helping him like the Texans, Giants and Steelers do the others. We are hoping Andy Dalton has a bounce-back year and another receiver helps draw coverage. Even if they don't, we expect WR1 production for Fantasy GMs who grab him early in drafts.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. It's an honor that you'll share a little of your season with us.

We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J