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Footballguys #111 - 8/10 - Principles of Value Based Drafting, Devil's Advocate, News and Notes and MORE

Volume 20, #111 -- Friday Night, August 10th, 2018

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Howdy Folks,

Hi Folks,

Good Saturday to you.

Buckle Up and Bear Down. Your Draft is almost here.

Tons of new content and the News and Notes you need. Let's do this.

J

SITE NEWS

A. FREE Feature - Principles of Value Based Drafting
Way back in 1996 I put together the framework for the Value Based Drafting System. We've been building from it ever since. I break it down here.

B. The Devil's Advocate
Our Matt Waldman is back with another Gut Check column. In this one, he goes to the dark side to test your faith in the top 50 players on the board.

C. Campfire Chat: Favorite Rookie RB
The Footballguys staff discuss their favorite rookie running back.

D. Campfire Chat: Favorite Rookie WR
The Footballguys staff discuss their favorite rookie wide receiver.

E. Campfire Chat: Favorite Rookie TE
The Footballguys staff discuss their favorite rookie tight end.

F. The FPC: Quarterbacks
Our Jeff Pasquino with more Footballguys Players Championship analysis. In this one, he dives into the Quarterback Position.

G. How to Attack Your Two-Quarterback Draft
Our Jeff Tefertiller with strategy on how to attack your two-quarterback league draft.

H. FREE FEATURE - 2018 FFPC Co-Drafting Strategy
Our Austin Lee and Alessandro Miglio with an FFPC Pros vs Joes draft recap conversation with player value debates and co-drafting strategy.


1. IND - WR Deon Cain has torn ACL

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Updating a previous report, Indianapolis Colts WR Deon Cain (knee) suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the first preseason game and will miss the rest of the season.

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The worst fears ended up being correct, as Cain will be lost for the season. Fellow rookie Daurice Fountain has an opportunity opened up for him, and Ryan Grant is likely entrenched as the #2. Chester Rogers might end up being the #3, but he has had a mixed camp to date. Cain is still worth a stash in dynasty leagues, especially ones with IR slots.

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2. WAS - RB Derrius Guice reportedly tore ACL

Source: NFL.com - Ian Rapoport

Updating previous reports, Washington Redskins RB Derrius Guice (knee) reportedly tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season, according to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport via a source.

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Terrible news for Washington and the top prospect. Rob Kelley was ahead of Samaje Perine last year and he has reportedly slimmed down, so he is probably the favorite to start, but this should be a committee approach and Washington could always bring in a veteran like Demarco Murray or even wait until final cuts to add someone.

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3. SF - Two 49ers out until Week 1

Source: 49ers.com - Joe Fann

San Francisco 49ers RB Matt Breida (shoulder) and TE George Kittle (shoulder) both suffered separated shoulders during the preseason game Thursday, Aug. 9, and will both be sidelined until Week 1.

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Both play rough positions that include a lot of contact that might re-injure the shoulders so this will be something to monitor when they return to the lineup. Second-year players Cole Hikutini and Joe Williams will get increased August opportunity to show their stuff with the pair sidelined.

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4. SF - RB Matt Breida escapes serious injury

Source: NFL Network - Tom Pelissero

San Francisco 49ers RB Matt Breida (shoulder) is expected to be ready in time for the regular-season opener after an MRI revealed no structural damage in his shoulder. Breida was hurt in the team's preseason opener against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, Aug. 9.

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Week 1 brings the stout Minnesota run defense, so even if Breida is limited for the opener, he's not going to be a flex consideration. Breida is still a savvy second half of your draft pick on the possibility that he is more 1A than backup to Jerick McKinnon. Joe Williams will get a lot more run in his bid to be the #3 back while Breida is out.

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5. SF - TE George Kittle not seriously hurt

Source: NFL.com - Ian Rapoport

Updating a previous report, San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle (shoulder) did not sustain any tears or structural damage to his separated shoulder Thursday, Aug. 10. CSN Bay Area's Matt Maiocco speculates the injury is most likely a sprain that will sideline Kittle a couple of weeks.

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This is great news and means you don't need to move Kittle down too far on your board, if at all.

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6. NYJ - RB Crowell exits game with possible concusion

Source: CBS Sports

Jets running back Isaiah Crowell left Friday's preseason game with a possible concussion, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.

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We've projecting Crowell to be the Jets leading rusher so stay on top of this one. Bilal Powell would see work if Crowell were to miss time.

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7. NYJ - PK Cairo Santos not playing

Source: New York Post - Brian Costello

New York Jets PK Cairo Santos (leg) is not playing in the preseason game Friday, Aug. 10, because he has been dealing with leg tightness.

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Santos lost his spot as the Chiefs kicker after aggravating a groin injury in-season last year. We'll watch this closely, as Taylor Bertolet may end up having a chance to win a job if Santos can't get healthy soon.

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8. IND - RB Robert Turbin dealing with injury

Source: The Indianapolis Star - Zak Keefer

Indianapolis Colts RB Robert Turbin (ankle) suffered an ankle injury in the first preseason game and is considered week-to-week.

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Turbin will have plenty of time to get to 100% as he serves a four-game suspension to begin the season. The team appears to be keeping him on the roster despite the suspension, so he may be on our waiver wire watch list later in the season.

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9. BUF - No leader for center job

Source: WKBW.com - Joe Buscaglia

Buffalo Bills C Russell Bodine and OG Ryan Groy have been competing for the starting center job during training camp, and head coach Sean McDermott said no one his taken the lead in the competition.

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Hopefully this is a good thing for the Bills - that both are playing so well that neither is ahead and the loser of the competition will be good depth. Bodine has struggled in the past and the team reportedly loved Groy's work in relief of Eric Wood in the past, so it might be a bad sign for Groy.

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10. OAK - WR Martavis Bryant stuck on second team for now

Source: NBC Sports Bay Area - Scott Bair

Oakland Raiders WR Martavis Bryant has been locked to the second unit, without many 11-on-11 reps early in camp, according to Scott Bair of NBC Sports Bay Area.

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Ryan Switzer may end up with more snaps and targets than Bryant at this rate. Bryant has tons of physical ability, but he might not have a big role in the Raiders offense after they spent a third round pick on him.

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11. DET - WR Marvin Jones lighting it up in camp

Source: MLive.com - Kyle Meinke

Detroit Lions WR Marvin Jones has reportedly been Matthew Stafford's favorite target in camp, 'largely because he's been getting open so frequently,' according to Kyle Meinke of MLive.com.

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Jones targets could be cut into by a healthy and developing Kenny Golladay, but he is still a big play threat every week. His ADP isn't quite where last year's production would dictate and reflecting the possible effect of Golladay, making Jones a solid pick with room for profit.

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12. NE - RB Jeremy Hill strengthens roster bid

Source: ESPN.com

New England Patriots RB Jeremy Hill carried 11 times for 51 yards and a touchdown on Thursday, Aug. 9, against the Washington Redskins. Hill added two receptions for 14 yards.

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Hill contributed on special teams, which should help his chances to make the team. He could have the Mike Gillislee 2017 role if he beats out Gillislee and Sony Michel isn't ready for Week 1 against Houston. Put him on your late round flier list.

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13. TB - Ronald Jones bottled up

Source: ESPN.com

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones rushed eight times for nine yards and a touchdown and failed to catch his only target in a 26-24 preseason win over the Miami Dolphins Thursday, Aug. 9.

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Jones also had a key drop in the passing game. It doesn't look like he is going to displace Peyton Barber. Expect his ADP to drop and Barber's to rise in upcoming weeks.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J