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Footballguys #103 - 8/2 - Why Custom Cheatsheets Are The One Thing You Must Get Right, Upside Down Mocking, News and Notes and MORE

Volume 20, #103 -- Thursday Night, August 2nd, 2018

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Howdy Folks,

Welcome to Friday.

If you've got five minutes, please stop what you're doing and read the Importance of Custom Scoring in Cheatsheets article below. It's the single biggest thing I see Fantasy GMs get wrong. And for guys who are consistently successful, it's the thing they get right. We want to help you win.

Plus there's a ton more new content plus the News and Notes you need.

Let's do this.

J

SITE NEWS

A. FREE Feature - Why You Must Understand The Importance of Custom Scoring in Cheatsheets
This might be one of the most important articles we do this year. The most common mistake I see in Fantasy Football is GMs failing to understand the incredible value of a customized cheatsheet. Our Clayton Gray and Jeff Haseley helped me with this one pulling together examples to show what a difference scoring system, starting lineup requirements and number of teams in the league can affect the value of players. And why someone like Julio Jones might be a top 13 pick in one format and not in the top 50 in another. Don't ruin your draft with a generic cheatsheet.

B. FREE Feature - FPC and the Action Scoring Rule
Our Jeff Pasquino continues his series diving into the Footballguys Players Championship. In this one, he looks at the Action Scoring Rule.

C. Running Backs and Mocks For Upside Down Drafts
Our Matt Waldman profiles the running backs worth targeting for the Upside Down Draft Strategy and shares three mock drafts. Must read material from Matt.

D. Best Ball Strategy: Tight End Deep Dive
Our James Brimacombe looks over the past two years of data we want to see as we consider floors and ceilings of the tight end position.

E. Will Kerryon Johnson Carry You To Fantasy Success?
Our Jason Wood with a detailed look at Kerryon Johnson's fantasy prospects in 2018.

F. Dynasty Trade Value Chart: August
Our Dan Hindery looks into quantifying Long-Term Player Value for Dynasty Leagues.

G. Dynasty Strategy Roundtable: The Rising Rookies
The Footballguys staff weighs in on how to handle rising rookies before the NFL season.

H. Quarterback Tiers
You've seen the must read articles on wide receiver and running back tiers. In this one, our Sigmund Bloom takes a look at the 2018 quarterback landscape through the lens of tiers. Do not try to draft a team without reading this.

I. Stay On Top Of Everything For Footballguys On Facebook
We're rejuvenated the Footballguys Facebook Page . Please check it out and "like" the page. And to really get the best out of it, you can click on the "Follow" button (next to the "Like" button) and select "See First" to make sure you always get the Footballguys content. We're getting tons of discussion and we'll be offering special prizes and bonus content to folks on our Facebook page. I hope you'll join us.

J. Detailed Stat Projections Updated
Detailed Stat Projections are the backbone of everything we do. Our David Dodds has new and updated numbers for offensive players here.

K. Staff Cheatsheet Rankings Updated
Get the latest thinking for where our Staff ranks players. And as always sort and view how you want.

L. Draft Dominator Classic for Windows Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic is the gold standard for drafting tools. It's updated here with the latest projections.

M. Draft Dominator Classic for Mac Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic is the gold standard for drafting tools. It's updated here with the latest projections.

N. Value Based Drafting Excel App Updated
For the Old School guys that love the Value Based Drafting (VBD) Excel App, it's updated and ready for you.

O. Projections Dominator Updated
Make the projections work the way you want them to with our Projections Dominator.


1. PIT - WR Antonio Brown should return soon

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Michael David Smith

Updating a previous report, Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown (quadriceps) is dealing with a strained quadriceps but is expected to return to practice in a few days, according to a source.

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That wasn't wind you just heard, but the sigh of relief from the greater Pittsburgh area, as well as our own Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom plus about a million Fantasy GMs. Cancel red alert, and return your tray tables to their relaxed position, Brown look like he's going to be fine and remain the top wide receiver pick for most fantasy drafts.

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2. NE - WR Eric Decker joining Patriots

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Free-agent WR Eric Decker (Titans) is expected to sign a one-year deal with the New England Patriots Thursday, Aug. 2, according to a source. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Decker was terrible with the Tennessee Titans last season and while we always give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt when it comes to revitalizing a player's career, he just didn't look like the player who had 1,000 yards in 2015. That said, Julian Edelman is suspended to start the season, and outside of Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski, targets are up for grabs. We'll keep an eye on Decker and could be more interested once we've seen him at practice.

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3. NYG - Odell Beckham contract talks open

Source: ESPN.com - Jordan Raanan

New York Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. opened contract talks with the team earlier this week, according to a source. His attendance to offseason workouts, organized team activities and minicamps did not go unnoticed by the organization.

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We still think they won't ink a deal until he has played a game or two, but this will get done and Beckham will continue to be the top-end WR1 we have seen in the past. The return from injury was a concern, but so far he has looked outstanding in training camp, so we aren't terribly concerned. He is going as the third receiver in early drafts and eleventh overall player, and we can't see a reason why he shouldn't produce numbers to support that.

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4. OAK - WR Jordy Nelson proving himself

Source: Las Vegas Review-Journal - Michael Gehlken

Oakland Raiders WR Jordy Nelson has been moving well, running polished routes and showing leadership in training camp. He is also developing good timing with QB Derek Carr.

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It was interesting that the Packers cut bait after what amounted to one bad season, but that might work out for Oakland. Sure, there is risk due to his 33 years, but the move inside could help. If he can bounce back, Carr and Amari Cooper will both benefit. His current ADP of 44th receiver off the board is about where he should be right now, but he could end up surpassing that.

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5. DEN - QB Case Keenum mistake-free

Source: The Denver Post - Ryan O'Halloran

Denver Broncos QB Case Keenum hasn't thrown an interception in the first five days of practice.

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Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven. So has Pat Mahomes. All of which is a reminder that interceptions in practice -- or a lack of them -- isn't something to get hung up about. No interceptions is always better, but not an indication of what to expect in the season. Of course, Broncos fans are excited in part because last season's quarterbacks put the "aw" in "awful" but Fantasy GMs should remain wary. Keenum's quarterback ADP is 25 right now, and that's about where we see him ending up at the end of the year.

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6. ARI - Chase Edmonds at RB2?

Source: The Arizona Republic - Katherine Fitzgerald

Arizona Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds is looking like the favorite to be the No. 2 running back behind RB David Johnson, according to beat writer Katherine Fitzgerald. Edmonds has seen a lot of work with the first- and second-team offenses. 'The one thing with Chase, great patience. You saw it today,' head coach Steve Wilks said. 'He's just really savvy, just really allowing his blocks to set up, and he has tremendous speed once he gets to the second level.'

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Unless David Johnson gets hurt again, the number two back in Arizona will have little value. That said, Edmonds has long been viewed around these parts as a natural Johnson handcuff and his pass-catching ability gives him a little extra something over the other backs. He can also run the ball well between the tackles. If Johnson gets hurt or his production flags, Edmonds will see more time than anyone else. He's going as the 75th back off the board and that ADP sounds about right for a David Johnson handcuff.

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7. CIN - WR Brandon LaFell cut

Source: NFL Network - Mike Garafolo

Cincinnati Bengals WR Brandon LaFell was granted his release Thursday, Aug. 2, according to his agent, Jonathan Feinsod.

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LaFell couldn't stick in a group who, aside from A.J. Green, really isn't impressive. We can't see him having much of a role anywhere else even if he gets a job. He's not worth rostering.

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8. BUF - QB AJ McCarron with first-team again

Source: WKBW.com - Joe Buscaglia

Buffalo Bills QB AJ McCarron is working with the first-team offense for the second day in a row Thursday, Aug. 2. It's the first time any of the quarterbacks have worked with the first-team on consecutive days.

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There's almost as little information about what McCarron brings to the table as a starter as there is about Josh Allen. We just don't know what to expect. Add in a shaky pass-blocking line, very few reliable pass catchers and an offense which has thrown less pass attempts over the last few years than most teams while running more than almost anyone and we see a recipe for lackluster fantasy production. We're mostly shying away from the Bills quarterback position.

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9. DET - Kerryon Johnson impressing early

Source: ESPN.com - Michael Rothstein

Detroit Lions RB Kerryon Johnson has consistently displayed good speed and vision as a runner thus far in camp, according to ESPN's Michael Rothstein.

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Owner of the most running back first name in the history of running back first names, Kerryon Johnson is a guy the Lions traded up for, and who represents something the Lions haven't had consistently in some time--a top-shelf back. There are some questions though. His upright running style can lead to injury, something he has had to deal with in college. And while the Lions were abysmal on the ground last season, they signed LeGarrette Blount and already had Theo Riddick--so it's a bit crowded in the backfield. If he can stay healthy, though, he could out-produce an aging Blount and an average Riddick, as well as his current ADP of 33rd running back off the board.

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10. NYJ - WR Quincy Enunwa out at least one week

Source: New York Daily News - Manish Mehta

New York Jets WR Quincy Enunwa (thumb) is expected to miss one to two weeks because of a thumb injury, according sources.

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This shouldn't impact Enunwa a ton, but it's a crowded field at receiver for the Jets and coming off a lost season, also due to injury, he needs to be on the field sooner than later. We are generally avoiding this passing offense this year, though Enunwa could have some value as a low-end PPR option. We need to see more before we buy in, however.

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11. TEN - S Eric Reid to visit

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Updating a previous report, free-agent FS Eric Reid (49ers) is scheduled to meet with the Tennessee Titans in the near future.

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As mentioned before, Reid still has something left in the tank, and played out of position last season at linebacker for the San Francisco 49ers. Really, Reid should be the Titans' choice but Kenny Vaccaro is also coming in for a visit and has less baggage.

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12. TEN - Tennessee to meet with S Lardarius Webb

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Free-agent FS Lardarius Webb (Ravens) is scheduled to meet with the Tennessee Titans in the near future.

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Webb's had a few solid seasons, but not consistently. He's not quite as good as Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Reid but could fill the void the team has at safety if need be.

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13. TEN - Tennessee will host S Mike Mitchell

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Free-agent FS Mike Mitchell (Steelers) has a visit scheduled with the Tennessee Titans Friday, Aug. 3, according to a source.

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Tennessee is kicking the tires on everything and everyone, and compared to Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Reid, Mitchell is a less great option. They need answers though and if for some reason the Titans dislike something about both Vaccaro or Reid, he could be at least an adequate replacement.

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14. GB - RB Aaron Jones remains sidelined

Source: ESPN.com - Rob Demovsky

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) did not participate in practice Thursday, Aug. 2.

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Jones, who is suspended for the first two games of the season, is already looking up at Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery. The sooner Jones is back, the better his chances of getting his share of carries back after his suspension. His ADP has already dropped to 42, while Williams has become the 34th back coming off the board. The situation could end up a bit muddy, but it looks like Williams has the edge.

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15. HOU - DE Jadeveon Clowney limited at camp

Source: Houston Chronicle - Aaron Wilson

Houston Texans LB Jadeveon Clowney (knee) has been 'very' limited at training camp and has yet to fully participate in team drills. Despite the limitations, Clowney has looked great, according to defensive line coach Anthony Weaver. Weaver said the plan is to get Clowney as physically strong as possible so there's less of a risk of him aggravating his knee issue. Clowney underwent arthroscopic knee surgery this offseason.

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Clowney is expected to play this season and Houston is just being cautious. The already menacing defense gets even better with him and J.J. Watt healthy and ready to go.

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16. PHI - Richard Rodgers injured Thursday

Source: The Philadelphia Inquirer - Zach Berman

Philadelphia Eagles TE Richard Rodgers (arm) was not able to finish practice Thursday, Aug. 2, because of an apparent wrist or arm injury.

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Stuck behind Zach Ertz and with rookie Dallas Goedert in his rear view mirror, Rodgers already doesn't move the needle much for fantasy purposes. This injury can only make things worse and let Goedert have a chance to catch him.

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17. LAC - CB Jason Verrett goes to IR

Source: Chargers.com - Ricky Henne

Los Angeles Chargers CB Jason Verrett (Achilles') was placed on the Reserve/Injured list Thursday, Aug. 2. TE Austin Roberts (knee) was also sent to IR. In corresponding moves, free-agents WR Marcus Peterson (IFL) and CB Channing Stribling (Colts) were signed.

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The football gods just don't like the Chargers, who are once again dealing with significant injuries before preseason has kicked off. Losing Verrett is a big blow to this defense and is going to put more pressure on the offense. That could mean some improved offensive numbers as Philip Rivers and company try to keep their team in the game.

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18. DEN - Courtland Sutton ascending

Source: The Denver Post - Ryan O'Halloran

Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton has made plays in every situation, and the team could be committing to three-receiver sets to keep him in the fold.

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Sutton has a nice side/speed combo and a basketball background, which has shown on the practice field so far. The idea is he will take over for Demaryius Thomas at some point, but it seems like the team wants them both on the field at the same time. We don't see him as a guy having a massive fantasy impact this season, but he is someone to watch.

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19. CIN - WR Tyler Boyd in line to start?

Source: USA TODAY Fantasy Sports

Cincinnati Bengals WR Tyler Boyd could be in line to start opposite of WR A.J. Green after WR Brandon LaFell was released Thursday, Aug. 2.

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Boyd now becomes an intriguing player who is going undrafted in early leagues. We don't know what to expect from this offense and Boyd is coming off a season where he went backwards following a nice rookie year. We don't think he's worth having on a redraft roster just yet, but flag him for consideration as we move through preseason.

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20. JAX - Jacksonville's top four WRs set?

Source: ESPN.com - Mike DiRocco

Jacksonville Jaguars WRs Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief, Keelan Cole and DJ Chark are set atop the team's receiver depth chart with WR Dede Westbrook the front runner for the No. 5 spot, according to ESPN's Michael DiRocco.

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The biggest question here is really what happens with Blake Bortles. While he had some really nice moments in 2017, his production continues to drop, though his completion percentage improved over previous numbers. How he goes will directly impact his receivers. Right now, even assumed No. 1 Marqise Lee is suffering from a mediocre ADP of 51st receiver overall. Now, Lee is battling a shoulder injury, but he has the ability to be higher. The wide receiver group lacks the ability (in Lee's case) or the experience (in the case of DJ Chark) compared to what Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson brought to the team.

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That'll do it for today, Folks.

Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J