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Volume 19, #82 -- Thursday Night, July 13th, 2017

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Hi Footballguy,

Welcome to Friday. I'm Joe Bryant and I'll be your guide here at Footballguys. We've got the News and Notes you need so let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Get The Edge You Need To Dominate with the Insider PRO and Insider PRO Plus Today
Hopefully you're enjoying these articles and drafting tools. The articles are free to everyone for another few days and the Drafting Tools are free and loaded with stat projections from Early June. But unless your draft is today, you have to have updated projections. Our Insider PRO and Insider PRO Plus subscribers have full access to the Draft Dominator Classic and Draft Dominator Online plus a ton of other features. Our goal is to give you everything you need to Dominate Your League. And we have a 30 day Money Back Guarantee so there's ZERO risk. Jump onboard, sign up today and let's start winning. And for folks that want multiple sources, we're working again this year with our friend Matthew Berry from ESPN and his Rotopass.com subscription. . Matthew's put together a killer list of sites, including the Footballguys Insider PRO subscription, at a great price.

B. Most Improved Offensive Lines
Our Matt Williamson with a detailed look at the most improved offensive lines.

C. Skill, Luck, and ADP
Our Adam Harstad with thoughts on how simply being average can be a path to success in fantasy football.

D. Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 1: MFL10 Format
The Footballguys staff got together for their first mock draft of 2017. A 12 team PPR, Best Ball draft with a format equivalent to MFL10s. Justin Howe provides an in-depth summary of each team's draft.

E. The New Reality, No.86: Late-Round Rookie Draft Strategy
Our Chad Parsons dives into refining 2017 rookie draft strategy between target and avoid prospects.


1. MIN - No brace for QB Teddy Bridgewater

Source: Minneapolis Star Tribune - Michael Rand

Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) has been working out without a brace on his surgically repaired knee. The extent of Bridgewater's workout regimen and timetable has not been fully disclosed, however, and he could begin training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list.

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This is great sign, but we're still wondering how hard the team will push him to play. They have Sam Bradford, who should improve after an entire offseason of work with the team after doing well in 2016 considering he parachuted in at the last minute. Bradford will be very expensive to keep around beyond this year whereas if they start the season with Bridgewater on the PUP - and maybe even keep him IR'd - they will be able to save his last year of contract and put him back in the lineup when they have improved the offensive line even more and he is still cheap. This is all worth watching, but don't be shocked if Bradford starts the season under center or if Bridgewater doesn't see the field this season.

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2. WAS - Two Redskins working with a legend

Source: Redskins.com - Stephen Czarda

Washington Redskins WRs Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder have been working out with former NFL WR Randy Moss.

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There is a lot of room for both, with the departure of both Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. We like what Pryor did in Cleveland but Crowder is the guy to own here. We don't expect spectacular numbers, as the two receivers will eat each other's production a bit. Both seem like they are decent values though. Right now, Pryor is tracking higher in early drafts with an ADP of 51 overall and the 23rd receiver off the board while Crowder is just a bit behind as the 33rd receiver and an overall ADP of 78.

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3. NE - TE Dwayne Allen not a lock

Source: ESPNBoston.com - Mike Reiss

New England Patriots TE Dwayne Allen isn't considered a lock to make the team, in the opinion of beat writer Mike Reiss.

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Allen has been pretty lackluster from a career standpoint, so this is no real surprise, however keep in mind we haven't even hit camp. Further, Reiss is just speculating (like we all are at this point) and really, we knew Allen had a lot to prove going in. That doesn't mean we're excited by Allen, but we're not counting him out yet given the lack of legitimate tight ends outside of Rob Gronkwoski.

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4. WAS - QB Kirk Cousins deal still unlikely

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Updating an ongoing story, Washington Redskins QB Kirk Cousins is likely to play for the franchise tag in 2017, and both sides are complacent with it, according to sources.

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Cousins is betting on himself again, which worked well for him in 2016, but Washington is like that guy who bets against the shooter at a craps table. Washington is only able make their money by getting him cheap if he regresses. We're expecting another solid year from Cousins, but with a slight dip in yards, but still good touchdown production. His current ADP of 86, as the No. 12 quarterback off the board hits about where we think the mark should be.

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5. MIN - QB Sam Bradford efficient on deep throws

Source: ProFootballFocus.com - Cam Mellor

Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Bradford had the highest adjusted completion percentage on deep passes of 20 yards or more in 2016, converting on 57.4 percent of such throws. Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan (57.1 percent) and New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees (56.1 percent) finished second and third, respectively.

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Bradford did pretty well for a Vikings team which struggled mightily behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season, but keep in mind he didn't throw deep anywhere near as often as Brees or Ryan. And while you can expect Ryan/Brees to continue to be accurate deep, we're not sure where the offensive line is really at for Minnesota, nor how often Bradford will be able to - or asked to - go deep. Throughout his career, he's been relatively solid on deep balls so we know he is capable of it and a full offseason with this team and receivers makes us hopeful. That said, his ADP of 25th quarterback overall is well earned given the uncertainty and his overall track record of mediocrity.

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6. MIA - WR Leonte Carroo likely to make team

Source: ESPN.com - James Walker

Updating previous reports, Miami Dolphins WR Leonte Carroo's chances of being cut are slim as the team traded up in the third round to draft him a year ago.

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He's going to have to hold off Rashawn Scott, Isaiah Ford, and Jakeem Grant (though Grant is more of a special teams player) to stick around. Even if he does, with Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry around, Caroo is going to have a very hard time making an impact if he does stay on the roster. Aside from Dynasty, it is unlikely that Carroo will have fantasy impact this season.

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7. KC - OLB Justin Houston pressuring more than anyone

Source: ProFootballFocus.com - Cam Mellor

Kansas City Chiefs LB Justin Houston has the highest pressure percentage (18.41 percent) of any defender in the NFL since 2013 with at least 1,000 pass rushes. Philadelphia Eagles DL Brandon Graham (17.51 percent) and Denver Broncos LB Von Miller (17.16 percent) rank second and third, respectively.

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This should come as a shock to exactly nobody who plays in IDP fantasy leagues, as Houston is a big-play waiting to happen each week for his GMs. He seems to be fully healed from the ACL tear which took him out for half of 2016, which bodes well for anyone who drafts him this season.

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8. LAR - CB Trumaine Johnson a free agent next year?

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Mike Florio

Los Angeles Rams CB Trumaine Johnson is expected to become an unrestricted free agent next year, according to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio. Johnson has been given the franchise tag two years in a row. Being tagged for a third year in a row would cost the Rams $24.1 million. If/when Johnson does hit the free-agent market, he has a good chance to become the highest-paid cornerback in the league.

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While we won't be shocked if Johnson and the Rams manage to work something out, this is a team doing some hard rebuilding, and they may not want to sink an inordinate amount of money on one guy in the secondary.

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9. MIA - OLB Koa Misi on the bubble

Source: ESPN.com - James Walker

Miami Dolphins LB Koa Misi (neck) is on the roster bubble, in the opinion of beat writer James Walker.

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If Misi is going to be forced out, someone - Neville Hewitt, Trevor Reilly, Lamin Barrow or Brandon Watts - is going to have to deliver. Walker mentions Lawrence Timmons and Raekwon McMillan but current depth charts slot them both at the "Mike" or middle linebacker spot, while Misi is slotted into the "Sam" or strong side. That can easily change, though, and his nagging injuries don't bode well.

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That'll do it for today, Buddy. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J