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Volume 19, #68 -- Thursday Night, June 29th, 2017

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Hi Footballguy,

Welcome to Friday. Make sure to check out the Footballguys Players Championship link below in the Site News. We have a killer Early Bird Promo that ends July 1. Jump on it.

Plus we've got more new Content for you and the News and Notes you need. Let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Footballguys Players Championship Early Bird Promo Ends Tonight
The Footballguys Players Championship is back. We're biased of course but we think it's the best mid stakes online league in the country. Register before the end of the day Friday, June 30th, 2017 and receive a complimentary subscription to Footballguys.com Insider PRO membership. Purchase a 3-pack of FPC teams for $1,000 and receive a complimentary 3-year subscription. If you already have a Footballguys.com Insider PRO membership, the complimentary years will be added to the end of your current subscription. A maximum of 3 year subscription will be awarded per person regardless of FPC teams purchased by early bird deadline.

B. Passing Game Weekly Ceiling Study
Our Sigmund Bloom ranks the passing games from 1-32 based on their ability to generate 15+ point games in PPR leagues.

C. 2017 Running Back Goal Line Conversion Rate Regression
Our Chad Parsons examines goal line conversion rates to highlight regression candidates for 2017 running backs.

D. Eyes of the Guru Preseason, Part 1: AFC West
Our John Norton with an overview of defenses in the AFC West with an emphasis on individual defensive players and their fantasy value.

E. Commissioner Guide: Section III
Our Footballguys Staff continues the series on the all important but often thankless task of serving as the league Commissioner. In this one, they have a discussion on the importance of league size.

F. Commissioner Guide: Section IV
Our Footballguys Staff continues the series on the all important but often thankless task of serving as the league Commissioner. In this one, they have a discussion on creating a league constitution.


1. DEN - RB Jamaal Charles cutting, doing everything

Source: Denver7 Sports - Troy Renck

Denver Broncos RB Jamaal Charles (knee) said he has been cutting and doing everything on his surgically repaired left knee, and he finally feels normal. 'I feel like the way I am cutting that I am back to the normal me, man. It feels good to be moving around again,' said Charles, who was limited to eight games the past two seasons because of knee injuries. 'I have (known) this the whole offseason (that the knee was fine). Nobody can take nothing away from me except God when my time is up. I am still 30 years old. I still have a lot of special stuff to do.'

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It's good to hear he is feeling back to normal, but a 30-year old back coming off of knee issues--over the course of two years no less--is unlikely to be able to sustain a high level of play for a whole season. We think it more likely he is a change-of-pace back who gets a decent amount of touches and, as long as he is healthy, can produce consistent points. That said, he's not going to do so in a way that gives you more than flex type points. Right now his ADP is hovering at 132 overall and 47 among backs.

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2. CAR - QB Cam Newton's confidence was shaken

Source: MMQB - Albert Breer

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton's down year in 2016 was due in part to a loss of confidence in his offensive line, which was hit hard by injuries. A big part of Newton's game has always been his ability to hold the ball, buy time and strike downfield. The injuries to the line affected that.

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The O-line had been shaky for some time, and Newton had made it look much better with his ability than it deserved to look. A healthy line will help his game, but the team needs to continue to address the talent level up front as well. And no offense intended to Ryan Kalil, but we're not sure brother Matt is really much of an upgrade at left tackle. If he plays like he did in Minnesota, Newton is in for a long year. At least throwing to new rookie weapons RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Curtis Samuel should help build Newton's confidence.

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3. SEA - QB Russell Wilson sheds weight

Source: ESPN.com - Sheil Kapadia

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson shed 11 pounds in the offseason after working with a nutritionist. He weighed 225 pounds with 16 percent body fat in March and recently weighed 214 pounds with 10 percent body fat.

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Speed and overall conditioning was never an issue, and we hope the loss of weight doesn't leave him more prone to getting banged up. That said, mobility is his game so as long as he's quick, he should be fine. Then again, even the minor changes (adding Luke Joeckel) might not help a unit which Pro Football Focus has ranked 32nd in the league. All that said, Wilson was a great fantasy quarterback despite a bad unit in front of him and we expect a healthy Wilson will be a great one again this year. He's going in early drafts as the No. 6 quarterback so far with an ADP of 54 overall, so it seems Fantasy GMs agree.

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4. NYJ - QB Christian Hackenberg overhauls footwork

Source: MMQB - Albert Breer

New York Jets QB Christian Hackenberg has pleased the team with his overhauled footwork, but he's not consistent enough yet.

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There's an air of distrust around the Jets quarterback position, especially since we all wonder why Hackenberg couldn't get on the field last season instead of the terrible options the Jets had. Yes, sad Ryan Fitzpatrick, that includes you. Reports that Hackenberg was terribly inaccurate (and hitting reporters on the sideline) this spring only make Jets fans more nervous. We're suggesting everyone stay away from most of the Jets offense this year, especially the passing offense. It's too volatile to spend more than a late pick, and we won't be touching Hackenberg with a 100-yard pole.

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5. CLE - WR Corey Coleman's WRs coach talks hamstring

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns WR Corey Coleman (hamstring) is currently recovering from a strained hamstring -- a problem that has plagued him back to his collegiate days at Baylor. Browns wide receivers coach Al Saunders said he is disappointed for Coleman to be missing time. The expectation is for Coleman to return for training camp July 26, if he can improve the strength of the hamstring.

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Coleman had injury troubles in his first year, and this particular one has been a long-standing issue. Every time he misses an OTA, camp day or anything else he is stymieing his development. Coleman has the ability but that won't make a difference if he can't stay on the field and off the trainer's table. The uncertainty at quarterback doesn't help his value either. In early drafts he is currently the 41st receiver off the boards, with an overall ADP of 106.

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6. MIA - Mike Pouncey likely ready for season

Source: The Miami Herald - Barry Jackson

Miami Dolphins C Mike Pouncey (hip) is expected to be ready for the season, barring a setback, according to a source close to him.

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The Dolphins need Pouncey 100 percent healthy this season. Whenever he was not in the lineup, the blocking was not as consistent -- or good. With second-year pro Laremy Tunsil shifting to left tackle, Pouncey is going to have to be the strong presence in the middle of the line.

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7. BUF - Jonathan Williams won't be disciplined

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Buffalo Bills RB Jonathan Williams won't be disciplined by the NFL under the substance abuse policy. Williams was recently found not guilty in a case involving a DWI.

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That's good news for people looking to handcuff Williams to LeSean McCoy. We think Williams will get some carries, but unless McCoy gets injured, the backup will remain just that--a backup.

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8. NFL - ILB Zach Orr will have to manage neck issue

Source: MMQB - Albert Breer

Free-agent LB Zach Orr (neck) has been told by doctors that the strength of the tendons and ligaments should protect his C1 vertebra, which is only 80 percent formed. He has received the green light to play, but he'll have to manage his congenital neck issue.

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Player safety is on the front burner more than ever in the NFL, so any team interested in Orr must have a plan for managing this injury. Neck problems are tricky and can be quite problematic. Orr's agent says he's now been contacted by 15 teams in the NFL, so there's no doubt the league is interested in the free agent linebacker. His price tag will likely be incentive laden to cover the team's backside in case the neck becomes problematic again.

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9. DET - RB Matt Asiata on borderline

Source: Detroit Free Press - Dave Birkett

Detroit Lions RB Matt Asiata may be on the borderline if the Lions decide to keep five running backs, but if the Lions carry four backs then Asiata may be on the sideline.

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Asiata is a limited back who is solid in close quarters and can catch the ball but isn't an every down back by any stretch. If the Lions are looking to move away from a fullback on carries, everything Asiata can do is something another back can do, and better. We get the feeling Asiata is a long shot to make the final roster.

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That'll do it for today, Buddy. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J