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Volume 19, #59 -- Tuesday Night, June 20th, 2017

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Hi Folks,

Good Wednesday to you. We've got some great new content for you plus the News and Notes you need so let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. The Gut Check No. 400: WR Production Shares, ADP, and Consistency
Our Matt Waldman examines wide receivers that quarterbacks lean on in the passing game, including the return of his consistency data.

B. Too Soon to Overreact or Time To Hit Eject?
With many teams signing free agents or drafting solid fantasy options, fantasy owners will need to determine if the situation bears watching and is "Too Soon To Overreact" or "Time to Hit Eject". Our Jeff Tefertiller looks at a few examples of each in this article.

C. Auction Primer: Section VII
Our Jeff Pasquino continues the Auction Series. In this one, he looks at Nomination Strategies.

D. Auction Primer: Section VIII
Our Jeff Pasquino continues the Auction Series. In this one, he looks at handling Auction Day.

E. Player Spotlight: DE Myles Garrett
Our Player Spotlights feature some of the most in depth looks you'll find anywhere. In this one, our Daniel Simpkins breaks down DE Myles Garrett.


1. TEN - WR Eric Decker contract details

Source: USA TODAY Sports - Tom Pelissero

Tennessee Titans WR Eric Decker's one-year deal is worth up to $5.35 million, according to a source. The deal comes with a $2.5 million signing bonus, a $1.35 million salary and up to $1.50 million in incentives.

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Decker could be a very interesting addition to this offense and might be a good fit as the No. 2 there. Two things will impact that. First is the health of Marcus Mariota, which looks good. Second will be how quickly rookie Corey Davis starts drawing coverage. When he's the focal point of a secondary, Decker can struggle. When he has a legit number one across from him, though, he can be very productive. Right now, Decker is trending with an overall ADP of 102 and is the 39th receiver off the board. We suspect that will get more expensive as summer goes by and the market adjusts to his new situation.

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2. PIT - Le'Veon Bell extension iffy before deadline?

Source: CBSSports.com - Jason La Canfora

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell has a 50% chance of agreeing to a long-term extension before the July 17 deadline, in the opinion of Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports. La Canfora cites Bell's history of injuries and suspensions as logical reasons to take a year-by-year approach with Bell. Plus, Bell counts $12 million against the Steelers' salary cap.

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It's going to happen. The Steelers don't want him to walk, because he will last half a minute on the market. Yes, there is danger because of those suspensions and injuries but you can only string him along for so long before he takes his talents elsewhere, unless you just tag him every season, which gets cost-prohibitive. We expect Bell to be both healthy and not suspended, making him a shoe-in for one of the top running back spots in fantasy again this season.

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3. CLE - DeShone Kizer closing the gap

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns QB DeShone Kizer has narrowed the gap between him and QB Cody Kessler for the starting job. Kizer essentially split the first-team repetitions with Kessler during minicamp. The two are expected to battle for the starting job in training camp.

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The rookie from Notre Dame is picking things up quickly. The Browns don't do everything right, but we love how they've emphasized building from the offensive line out. That O-Line is going to make things better for the quarterback -- no matter who the starter is. Kizer is seen as the QB of the future, and he should get on the field as the starter even if he begins the 2017 season as a backup behind Kessler.

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4. BUF - QB Tyrod Taylor impresses

Source: The Buffalo News - Vic Carucci

Buffalo Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has impressed head coach Sean McDermott. 'I've really been impressed with the leadership,' McDermott said. '(He displayed) the intangible qualities that are inherent or must be inherent to that quarterback position. I've watched him develop in those areas and that's important as we look to move forward. There's leadership qualities at that quarterback position that are important to winning football games, and I think he's done a nice job in that area.'

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Taylor needed to grow into his role as a leader with the Bills and it sounds like that's what he did. He's a playmaking quarterback who throws a beautiful deep pass, but Taylor needs to play with better consistency and accuracy. Taylor is the Bills starter for the 2017 season, but there is some question as to whether or not he's a long-term answer for the franchise.

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5. DAL - RB Alfred Morris still likely to go

Source: The Dallas Morning News - Jon Machota

Updating previous reports, Dallas Cowboys RB Alfred Morris is still likely to be moved or cut before the 53-man roster is finalized, in the opinion of beat writer Jon Machota.

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Morris doesn't play special teams and that could cost him his roster spot. The Cowboys could use Darren McFadden as the primary backup behind Ezekiel Elliott. Morris may not be what he used to be, but there would be more than a few teams interested in his services if he hit the open market.

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6. PIT - Ben Roethlisberger praises WR Martavis Bryant

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Brian Batko

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger said WR Martavis Bryant 'looks like a stud, as usual' when asked how the returning wide-out is fitting back in with the team.

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It sounds like Bryant is back to dominating on the football field. He should be able to carry that momentum from minicamp over to training camp and from training camp to the preseason. Once we see him back in game action, we'll feel better about Bryant's potential. In this high-powered passing attack, Bryant has a chance to outperform his current ADP of WR27 (5.05) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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7. NFL - CB Justin Gilbert's suspension increased

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Free-agent CB Justin Gilbert's (Steelers) four-game suspension was increased to one year by commissioner Roger Goodell Tuesday, June 20.

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Cue the "That Escalated Quickly" drop from 'The Anchorman'and write 'done' next to his career. That puts both of the Browns 2014 NFL Draft first round picks out of the league. Well done, Cleveland.

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8. KC - Andy Reid confident in offense

Source: Chiefs.com - B.J. Kissel

Kansas City Chiefs WR Chris Conley is just one piece of a young offensive group that has given head coach Andy Reid confidence despite the loss of Baltimore Ravens WR Jeremy Maclin. 'We have a lot of talent right here to do whatever we need to do,' Reid said. Conley himself is ready to take on a leadership role. 'You have to be a good listener [in order to lead], and I got a lot of time being able to watch and listen, and I think that's the way you help these younger guys is you just pay attention,' Conley said.

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Maclin had a poor 2016, so how much his departure really matters for this group is debatable. That said, getting the run game back on track and a third option to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill is critical. We don't expect Conley to be more than the fourth or fifth option in the passing offense, and Fantasy GMs seem to feel the same as his ADP is a very deep 271 overall.

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9. ATL - RB Devonta Freeman could have contract soon

Source: ESPN.com - Dianna Marie Russini

Atlanta Falcons RB Devonta Freeman's possible long-term contract could be done by the first week of training camp, according to a source. Freeman is entering the final year of his current contract.

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All reports have been positive about the two sides getting a deal done. While Freeman may want 'elite' RB money, he's unlikely to set the market at the position. We're expecting a new long-term contract for Freeman before the start of training camp.

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10. NYJ - Gang Green adds WR Marquess Wilson

Source: NFL.com - Kevin Patra

Free-agent WR Marquess Wilson (Bears) signed an undisclosed contract with the New York Jets on Tuesday, June 20.

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Wilson is a speed merchant on the field but has struggled with staying healthy. A foot injury limited him to just three games with the Bears in 2016. The Jets need competition at the WR position and we'll see if Wilson can latch on as a reserve receiver for 2017.

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11. DET - QB Matthew Stafford long-term deal coming?

Source: Detroit Free Press - Dave Birkett

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford has one year left on the extension he signed in 2013, and Lions general manager Bob Quinn told SiriusXM NASCAR Radio over the weekend he's "confident" a deal will get done.

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Stafford is entering the final year of his contract, and the Lions should work diligently to get this deal done. He's in line to be one of the highest paid players at his position. Earlier reports have speculated the Lions are waiting for the Raiders to get Derek Carr a new deal before rewarding Stafford.

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12. WAS - Odds strong QB Kirk Cousins re-signs?

Source: CBSSports.com - Jason La Canfora

Washington Redskins QB Kirk Cousins has 'become a leader and a fixture at a position of perpetual angst for (team owner Dan) Snyder,' according to CBS sports Jason La Confora, who believes there is now an 80 percent chance Cousins signs a long-term deal with the Redskins.

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Things change quickly around the NFL. Cousins didn't seem to be in the long-term plans for Washington after back-to-back franchise tags (2016, 2017). The team could get a new deal done that gives Cousins the security every player is looking for. If Cousins were to hit the open market, we'd expect a team like the 49ers to break the bank to get him.

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13. MIA - WR Jarvis Landry will not hold out

Source: The Miami Herald - Barry Jackson

Miami Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry will not negotiate with the Dolphins regarding a contract extension after the start of the season, according to his agent, who added the receiver will not hold out training camp if the deal is not reached in the next few weeks.

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As a second-round pick in 2014, Landry had no fifth-year option for the Dolphins to exercise. He's one of the most productive receivers in the league and can continue to be a key component of the Dolphins passing game. However, the two sides have not talked money and there seems to be a slight bit of hesitation from the team's side of things.

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14. NFL - WR Anquan Boldin waiting to sign before camp

Source: ArizonaSports.com

Free-agent WR Anquan Boldin (Lions) said that his preference is to sign with a team 'right before training camp.'

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Boldin proved last year with the Lions that he still had something left in the tank. He's looking for the 'right situation' and previous reports had indicated Boldin wants to stay near his Florida home. The veteran receiver will still be playing somewhere in 2017.

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15. PIT - Coach happy with T.J. Watt

Source: PennLive.com - Jacob Klinger

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said he is happy with how LB T.J. Watt is picking up the defensive scheme.

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Watt plays like his hair is on fire. He's got a high-revving motor and has been favorably compared to Clay Matthews (Packers). Watt should work into the mix this year as a part-time pass-rusher for the Steelers.

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16. SF - DE DeForest Buckner probably will see less snaps

Source: Sacramento Bee - Matt Barrows

San Francisco 49ers DE DeForest Buckner played 1,005 snaps in 2016, but defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said he would like to see Buckner play around 500 to 600 snaps this season to make sure he can make an impact when he is on the field. Buckner said he was tired at times last season but would not be taken out of the game.

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Buckner should be more effective with fewer snaps...at least that's what his coaches are counting on. A first-round pick in 2016, Buckner had 6.0 sacks last year and could easily match or best that number this year even with fewer snaps.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J