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Volume 19, #124 -- Thursday Night, August 24th, 2017

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Hi Folks,

Welcome to Friday. TONS of you are drafting tonight and this weekend and we're right here with you.

We've got ANOTHER avalanche of new Content for our Footballguys Insider PRO and PRO Plus customers. If you're not signed up yet, get on board today and get the edge you need for tonight. We've got 6,750 Printable Cheatsheets so you can walk into that draft tonight with player values dialed in to your exact situation. Let the other guys chase generic values with basic cheatsheets while you dominate. We've got tons more plus the News and Notes you need so let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. WIN MORE Fantasy Football
Hopefully you're enjoying these Email Updates. To unlock the full value from Footballguys and see these articles and drafting tools with current stat projections requires an Insider PRO or PRO Plus Subscription.

Our goal is to give you everything you need to Dominate Your League. And we have a 30 day Money Back Guarantee so there's ZERO risk. Jump onboard, sign up today and let's start winning.

B. Mobile Apps - The Draft Dominator
You've heard us talking about the Draft Dominator App. It's the key to your Perfect Draft and we've got all the info you need right here. Even me with a short video and Simon with a much better longer tutorial video.

C. Cracking FanDuel Book is LIVE
Following the Cracking DraftKings book, we told you Cracking FanDuel was close behind. And here it is. It's everything and more you need to beat the FanDuel games. Get some.

D. The Master Draft Plan For 2017
Our Sigmund Bloom lays out the Master Plan for 2017 drafts.

E. 6,750 Printable Cheatsheets Updated
Don't settle for a generic cheatsheet. Tell us a few things about your league, click a button and get a custom printable cheatsheet dialed in to YOUR league and YOUR situation.

F. Draft Dominator Classic For Windows Updated
New Detailed Stat Projections mean a new Draft Dominator Classic. This one is for Windows.

G. Draft Dominator Classic For Mac Updated
New Detailed Stat Projections mean a new Draft Dominator Classic. This one is for Mac users.

H. Value Based Drafting (VBD) Excel App Updated
For folks that love the old school Value Based Drafting (VBD) Excel app, it's ready for you with new projections.

I. Projections Dominator Updated
Make the Detailed Stat Projections work the way you want them to with our Projections Dominator.

J. FREE FEATURE - Deep Sleepers: Wide Receivers
Footballguys Staffers look for deep sleepers at the WR position.

K. Value Plays: Wide Receivers
The Footballguys staff finds value at the wide receiver position.

L. Overvalued Players: Wide Receivers
Footballguys staff members discuss wide receivers who are overvalued.

M. WR By Committee - Update
Our Jeff Pasquino with an updated look at how to find a Wide Receiver by Committee for 2017.

N. PPR WR By Committee - Update
Our Jeff Pasquino with an updated look at how to find a Wide Receiver by Committee for 2017. This one is for PPR scoring.

O. Critical Tier Drops: Wide Receivers
Identifying the key value drop off points in 2017 at the wide receiver position.

P. Arbitrage This, Part 2: 3 Cost-Effective Ways to Avoid Sunk Draft Costs at Wide Receiver
Our Justin Howe looks into digging for less-than-obvious discounts throughout the wide receiver tiers.

Q. True Fantasy Points: 2017 Wide Receiver Projections
Our Danny Tuccitto with a stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in wide receiver projections.

R. The Problem with Expert Mock Drafts
Expert Mocks, or Industry Mocks, can be fun and insightful tools... if you're careful not to fall for the wrong takeaways. Our Adam Harstad takes a look.

S. Fantasy Football Auction Primer
Is your fantasy football draft an auction? Our Alessandro Miglio has a primer to give you an edge.

T. Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 12, 12 team Superflex PPR
Speaking of Expert Mock Drafts... On August 16th, the Footballguys staff got together for their 12th draft of 2017. A 20-round Superflex PPR mock draft where there are three flex options, one of which can be quarterback. Our John Mamula provides an unbiased summary of each team's draft and each participant answers questions about their strategy/draft.

U. In The Trenches: Matchups for Preseason Week 3
This is a brand new feature written by Matt Bitonti and Justis Mosqueda. Comparing offensive and defensive lines to find the best matchups for the week.

V. IDP - Eyes of the Guru: Preseason Week 2
Our John Norton with IDP news and notes from preseason week 2.

W. Evaluation by Association: 2017 Edition
Our Ryan Hester dives into ranking NFL offenses as units and identifying valuable fantasy assets from each.

X. The Unusual Suspects: 3 Late Round Running Backs to Target
Our Phil Alexander gives you three late round running backs who have emerged as potential championship difference makers as we approach the end of draft season.

Y. Footballguys Players Championship
The 2017 season brings a mid-stakes $250,000 Grand Prize, $2,000 in league prizes, and championship round payouts all the way down to 700th place. The overall prize pool exceeds $2.0 million.

Friday's draft times (all times Eastern): 1pm, 4pm, 7pm, 8pm, 9pm, 10pm, 11pm, 11:55pm


1. WAS - TE Jordan Reed confident in toe

Source: ESPN.com - John Keim

Washington Redskins TE Jordan Reed (toe) doesn't believe his toe injury is a serious issue, adding that he doesn't feel any pain now thanks to a wider cleat and orthotics. The oft-injured tight end would like to play some this weekend, but head coach Jay Gruden admitted that Reed is one of those players who can easily get back into the swing of things.

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Remember, Reed was only healthy for ten weeks last season. He's going as the No. 4 tight end in drafts, 49th player overall which tells you how much production you can expect even in a limited season. However, make sure you have an alternative because he will likely be hurt this season at some point. When he's on the field though, he puts up points.

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2. HOU - WR Jaelen Strong's suspension stands

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Houston Texans WR Jaelen Strong is suspended for Week 1 of the regular season for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy.

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Will Fuller is injured and Strong is suspended. Whoever is under center is going to have limited options. DeAndre Hopkins is going to have to deal with extra attention as well, though he has battled through that before. Neither Strong nor Braxton Miller are getting drafted right now and we expect it to stay that way. One might emerge but so far nobody seems to be ready.

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3. ATL - RB Devonta Freeman to miss preseason game

Source: AtlantaFalcons.com - Kelsey Conway

Atlanta Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) has been ruled out for the preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals Saturday, Aug. 26, according to head coach Dan Quinn.

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No worries here as Freeman is on track to play in Week 1 of the regular season.

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4. NYJ - Quarterbacks splitting first-team reps for Jets

Source: ESPNNewYork.com - Rich Cimini

New York Jets QBs Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty split first-team repetitions during practice this week. A started has not officially been named yet for the regular season.

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The team keeps saying Josh McCown is the starter (well, Head coach Todd Bowles at least) but he's not getting reps which means he is unlikely to play against the Giants. Which means.... the Jets still have no clue what they are doing. Maybe trying to remove all doubt Hackenberg is a bust. Avoid the passing offense of this team at all costs.

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5. DAL - QB Dak Prescott to play full half?

Source: NFL Network - Dan Hellie

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott said he anticipates playing the entire first half of the Cowboys' Week 3 preseason game. He would even like to play into the third quarter, but admitted that will be up to head coach Jason Garrett.

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As the third preseason game is normally a dress rehearsal for the season, there are two aims for any team. First, get the offense and defense into a nice rhythm in a solid game situation and second, get everyone out without injury. That means we think Prescott is unlikely to see the second half, though stranger things have happened (just ask Mark Sanchez about his last preseason game as a Jet). Really, that's all Fantasy GMs want as well, as many of them are looking to him as a solid QB2. His current ADP is around 93 overall and he is the No 13 quarterback going off the board.

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6. TEN - Re-evaluation coming for WR Corey Davis

Source: TitanInsider.com - Terry McCormick

Tennessee Titans WR Corey Davis (hamstring) will be re-evaluated following the Titans' Week 3 preseason matchup to see how he is recovering from his hamstring ailment.

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The Titans have no need to rush him back. Head coach Mike Mularkey says the team wants him to be ready for the start of the regular season so they will be careful with him. As high as he went in the NFL draft, it remains to be seen if he can have a huge impact this year. Like most rookie receivers, he will struggle as he adjusts, and his ADP of 44th receiver in drafts tells us owners are feeling the same.

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7. SEA - WR Tyler Lockett still not playing

Source: The Seattle Times - Bob Condotta

Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (leg) is not expected to play in Week 3 of the preseason this weekend.

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Every day he is out is another day a guy like Kasen Williams can make a move. Aside from Doug Baldwin none of the other receivers have huge value, but it's worth keeping an eye on battles like these to see who could emerge. Lockette has always struggled to stay healthy, so this could be bad news for his roster spot.

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8. MIN - RB Latavius Murray to make preseason debut

Source: St. Paul Pioneer Press - Chris Tomasson

Minnesota Vikings RB Latavius Murray (ankle) is expected to play in Week 3 of the preseason this weekend, according to head coach Mike Zimmer.

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Rookie Dalvin Cook has already made his case for at least a significant share of carries, if not the lead job. The Vikings made a three-year investment in Murray though, so this could get very complicated, very quickly. Right now his absence has torched his ADP - Murray is tracking as the 135th player overall and the 47th running back, while Cook is lodged at 39 and 17, respectively. It will be interesting to see what Murray does in the next two preseason games, and whether it's too late to get a significant share of work. If he does, both backs could see their production take a hit.

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9. SEA - RB Thomas Rawls, RB C.J. Prosise to be inactive

Source: Seahawks.com - John Boyle

Seattle Seahawks RBs Thomas Rawls (ankle) and C.J. Prosise (groin) will both miss Seattle's Week 3 preseason tilt. Head coach Peter Carroll did say that both could play if it were the regular season.

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Eddie Lacy gets another start, but now he isn't just battling Rawls or Prosise. Now he has seventh round rookie Chris Carson to worry about. Carson has put on his 'big boy pants' and been a demon both in practice and games. Owners are still not drafting him, while Lacy is going as the 30th running back. That could change soon, and Carson is at least someone who should be kept in mind as a late round flier. Rawls is still the lead back and Prosise is still the third down back, but Lacy is assured nothing and Rawls is often banged up. Carson could get a shot down the road.

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10. LAR - WR Cooper Kupp won't play Saturday

Source: TheRams.com - Myles Simmons

Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp (groin) is dealing with a minor groin issue that will keep him from playing in Week 3 of the preseason, according to head coach Sean McVay.

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Kupp is going deep in drafts if he goes at all, in part because of the acquisition of Sammy Watkins and in part because of the uncertainty around the offense. He's a slot guy, though, so Watkins isn't the former Bill to worry about - Robert Woods is. We're not feeling this position has a lot of value when it comes to the Rams, so Kupp remains a late round flier even if he wins that battle.

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11. MIN - WR Adam Thielen being used in slot

Source: Minneapolis Star Tribune - Andrew Krammer

Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen has been playing in the slot in three-receiver formations in an effort to further utilize his versatility. QB Sam Bradford said it has also helped develop better chemistry with different defensive looks.

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Thielen's production was a bit inconsistent, and he may see a little more work in the slot. With his sure hands (he dropped just two balls in 2016), that could mean solid production. That said, we are not feeling great about this offense overall and there are a glut of interesting but not fantastic receiving options which could lead to more inconsistency. Thielen - or really anyone not named Stefon Diggs - should be a late round guy in any format save Best Ball where you can take advantage of his big games without worrying when they will show up.

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12. GB - RB Ty Montgomery should play

Source: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - Tom Silverstein

Green Bay Packers RB Ty Montgomery (leg) is expected to play this week versus the Denver Broncos, according to head coach Mike McCarthy.

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It's the preseason dress rehearsal so it makes sense and they want to see him against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Our biggest concern with him isn't the competition for carries or his injury - it's the inconsistent use in the offense by the Packers. If they give him a solid amount of carries, Montgomery should be a solid RB2. However, if they only give him a handful, his production will be scattered and tough to manage. He's currently going as the No. 19 back off the board and while we think his ceiling is higher than that, we worry about his floor.

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13. DAL - RB Ezekiel Elliott could play Saturday

Source: The Dallas Morning News - Brandon George

Updating previous reports, Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott could play in the third preseason game Saturday, Aug. 26, as head coach Jason Garrett is leaning toward playing him. It would be his first dosage of action this preseason.

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Suspended or not, he's going to get his work. His ADP is still really up there - 9th running back and 17th overall - despite currently being slated to miss the first six weeks. He's appealing his suspension, and we think it could be reduced a bit, but just in case, you should have an alternative.

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14. TB - WR Mike Evans out of practice

Source: ESPN.com - Jenna Laine

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (undisclosed) is out of practice Thursday, Aug. 24, for the second straight day.

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We're not worried about this as Evans will be ready for the season. He's going as the No. 4 receiver in drafts, 7th player overall and worth the price.

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15. DEN - OLB Von Miller to play vs. GB

Source: DenverBroncos.com - Andrew Mason

Denver Broncos LB Von Miller will play in the preseason game against the Green Bay Packers Saturday, Aug. 26, after he sat out the first two preseason games.

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Miller will likely get a series or two against the Packers. He's in great shape and looking to be even more of a terror for opposing quarterbacks in 2017.

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16. CHI - QB Mitchell Trubisky sees time with starters

Source: ESPNChicago.com - Jeff Dickerson

Chicago Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky received some snaps with the first-team offense during practice Wednesday, Aug. 23. QB Mike Glennon will start the third preseason game, but Trubisky is expected to play at least one series with the starters at the start of the second half.

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Glennon is the starter for now, but Trubisky is the future of the Bears. We may see Glennon only get half the year (or less) as the starter before they move to their 2017 first-round pick.

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17. BAL - RB Danny Woodhead expected to sit Saturday

Source: ESPN.com - Jamison Hensley

Baltimore Ravens RB Danny Woodhead (hamstring) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Aug. 23, and is not expected to play in the preseason game against the Buffalo Bills Saturday, Aug. 23.

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No surprise here. Woodhead is a seasoned veteran and doesn't need a ton of work in the preseason. This hamstring injury will likely keep him out in week four of the preseason too.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. Show no mercy in your Draft this weekend and we'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J