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Volume 19, #121 -- Monday Night, August 21st, 2017

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Hi Folks,

I hope you had fun with the Eclipse yesterday. To celebrate we've got big news in announcing our 2017 version of our Cracking DraftKings book is ready. It's everything you need to know and more to win DFS. And know that Cracking FanDuel is right behind it. Plus we've got loads more Season Long content plus all the News and Notes you need. Let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. WIN MORE Fantasy Football
Hopefully you're enjoying these Email Updates. To unlock the full value from Footballguys and see these articles and drafting tools with current stat projections requires an Insider PRO or PRO Plus Subscription.

Our goal is to give you everything you need to Dominate Your League. And we have a 30 day Money Back Guarantee so there's ZERO risk. Jump onboard, sign up today and let's start winning.

B. Mobile Apps - The Draft Dominator
You've heard us talking about the Draft Dominator App. It's the key to your Perfect Draft and we've got all the info you need right here. Even me with a short video and Simon with a much better longer tutorial video.

C. Mobile Apps - The Lineup Dominator
A brand new for us this year is the Lineup Dominator. Customized and detailed, if you're looking for the app to help you set the optimal lineup, this is your ticket.

D. Mobile Apps - The Waiver & Trade Dominator
Our newest app is the Waiver & Trade Dominator. You're in control with a season long view for your team. Don't just live "paycheck to paycheck" managing your team week to week. The Waiver & Trade Dominator gives you the power and tools to see the "long view" and win.

E. Cracking DraftKings Book is LIVE
For the last couple of years, the Footballguys Cracking DraftKings and Cracking FanDuel books have been the go to source for comprehensive DFS strategy. We're continuing the trend with the 2017 version of Cracking DraftKings. We'll have Cracking FanDuel ready right behind it. Read and Win.

F. FREE FEATURE - Campfire Chat: Plant a Flag, QB
We asked our Footballguys Staffers to "Plant A Flag" for a quarterback they're ready to take a stand for. Don't miss this series.

G. Campfire Chat: Plant a Flag, RB
We asked our Footballguys Staffers to "Plant A Flag" for a running back they're ready to take a stand for.

H. Campfire Chat: Plant a Flag, WR
We asked our Footballguys Staffers to "Plant A Flag" for a wide receiver they're ready to take a stand for.

I. Campfire Chat: Plant a Flag, TE
We asked our Footballguys Staffers to "Plant A Flag" for a tight end they're ready to take a stand for.

J. Campfire Chat: Plant a Flag, NFL Team
We asked our Footballguys Staffers to "Plant A Flag" for a NFL Team they're ready to take a stand for.

K. 20 Players Who Can Make Your Season
Our Sigmund Bloom runs down the 20 players most likely to blow away their ADP in value.

L. The Gut Check No. 417: When Your Draft Goes Wrong
Our Matt Waldman shares five symptoms of a draft day gone wrong and five tips for how to turn it around.

M. True Fantasy Points: 2017 Quarterback Projections
A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in quarterback projections.

N. The New Reality No. 90: Preseason Week 2 Notes
Our Chad Parsons with notes from Week 2 of the NFL Preseason.


1. PIT - Le'Veon Bell expected after preseason Week 3

Source: ESPN.com - Jeremy Fowler

Updating previous reports, Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell is expected to sign his franchise tender and report shortly after the third preseason game, according to a source.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

An important note for fantasy owners here. Bell is holding out but coming in after the third preseason game still gives him a couple of weeks to get up to speed. Fantasy owners worried about his holdout lasting into the regular season should be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Even with Bell missing the preseason, he should still be a top-5 pick (at worst) in fantasy drafts.

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2. DEN - QB Trevor Siemian to be named starter

Source: 104.3 The Fan - Brandon Stokley

Updating previous reports, Denver Broncos QB Trevor Siemian has been anointed the starting quarterback position, a source told 104.3 The Fan's Brandon Stokley.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Not a surprise as he's been the most consistent quarterback for the Broncos this offseason. Paxton Lynch, a 2016 first-round pick, missed open receivers and just doesn't look ready to be a starter in the NFL at this time.

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3. DEN - QB Trevor Siemian more consistent

Source: NFL Network - James Palmer

Denver Broncos QB Trevor Siemian was more consistent in his ball placement and decision making than fellow QB Paxton Lynch, according to head coach Vance Joseph. Those qualities are what won Siemian the starting job.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

That's what Siemian is. He's consistent with his decisions and his pass placement has been better this year. In 2016, Siemian had the second-most off-target passes per Pro Football Focus. Joseph also said Siemian would be more aggressive this year based on the Mike McCoy system.

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4. MIA - QB Jay Cutler shining Monday

Source: Sun-Sentinel - Omar Kelly

Miami Dolphins QB Jay Cutler made numerous plays in practice Monday, Aug. 21. Beat writer Omar Kelly opined that Cutler provided clear upgrades from QB Ryan Tannehill in arm strength and pocket presence.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The argument could be made that Cutler will be better for the Dolphins skill position players because of his willingness to challenge a defense. We're not upgrading the players astronomically, but it just makes sense that Cutler is a little more willing to take chances and that could pay off with a few more big plays from this offense that sometimes looked stale with Tannehill calling the shots.

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5. KC - QB Alex Smith the guy

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Kansas City Chiefs QB Alex Smith is the team's unquestioned starting quarterback, according to head coach Andy Reid.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Patrick Mahomes was drafted in the first round to be the quarterback of the future. The quarterback of the present is Smith, and any sort of switch to Mahomes in 2017 would have to come along with the team struggling. Smith should get this year as the starter, but know the team loves Mahomes and would put him in if the team isn't winning or Smith is struggling.

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6. DAL - QB Dak Prescott in sync with WR Dez Bryant

Source: The Dallas Morning News - Jon Machota

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott said having WR Dez Bryant healthy all offseason has allowed their 'chemistry' to grow.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Prescott will need to lean on Bryant more than ever while RB Ezekiel Elliott is suspended. Projecting Bryant for 70 or more catches with over 1,000 yards receiving and double-digit touchdowns in 2017 is fair.

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7. IND - WR Donte Moncrief in a red jersey

Source: The Indianapolis Star - Stephen Holder

Indianapolis Colts WR Donte Moncrief (shoulder) is in a red, non-contact jersey Monday, Aug. 21.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Earlier in the month, Moncrief sprained the AC joint in his left shoulder. The team doesn't want him to aggravate the injury, so they're making sure he's protected with the red jersey. If he's healthy, and if QB Andrew Luck is healthy, Moncrief has breakout potential for fantasy owners in 2017.

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8. TB - TE O.J. Howard finding a rhythm

Source: PewterReport.com - Mark Cook

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard showed improved chemistry with QB Jameis Winston during practice Sunday, Aug. 20, according to Mark Cook of PewterReport.com.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Winston loves throwing to the TE position as evident by his college career at FSU and his targets for Cameron Brate in 2016. Howard is big, fast and physical on the field. He is going to split time this year with Brate in the new-look Bucs passing attack, and that limits the rookie's fantasy value. Plus, it usually takes time for TEs to transition to the NFL game.

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9. NYJ - RB Matt Forte in question for Week 1?

Source: ESPNNewYork.com - Rich Cimini

New York Jets RB Matt Forte (hamstring) is not guaranteed to be healthy enough to play by Week 1, according to head coach Todd Bowles.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Bilal Powell is the top back for the Jets, but Forte will get plenty of work in their RBBC. From a fantasy standpoint, Forte should only be considered a RB4 in 2017.

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10. TEN - WR Tajae Sharpe off PUP

Source: TitansOnline.com - Jim Wyatt

Tennessee Titans WR Tajae Sharpe (foot) passed his physical Monday, Aug. 21, and was activated from the Physically Unable to Perform list. DE Mehdi Abdesmad was waived.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

It wasn't that long ago (last year to be precise) that Sharpe was an intriguing rookie for the Titans. This year things are much different. Sharpe is buried on the depth chart, he's been banged up with this foot injury and his spot on the 53-man roster is no guarantee.

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11. PHI - DE Brandon Graham exits

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Philadelphia Eagles DE Brandon Graham (triceps) left practice Monday, Aug. 21, with a strained triceps, according to a source.

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Don't expect the Eagles to rush Graham back out there. The injury isn't considered serious.

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12. MIA - RB Kenyan Drake practicing

Source: Sun-Sentinel - Omar Kelly

Miami Dolphins RB Kenyan Drake (concussion) is practicing Monday, Aug. 21, but he remains in the concussion protocol. Drake had a couple of good runs with the third-team offense in 11-on-11 drills.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Drake is a speedy runner in a straight line and he can gash a defense with a proper lane. He's not a handcuff for fantasy owners who select Jay Ajayi in 2017. If something happens to Ajayi, the Dolphins go to a RBBC with guys like Drake and Damien Williams splitting time.

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13. MIA - WR Leonte Carroo returns

Source: Sun-Sentinel - Omar Kelly

Miami Dolphins WR Leonte Carroo (hamstring) returned to practice Monday, Aug. 21.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

A third-round pick out of Rutgers last year, Carroo has an intriguing skill set. He's a dynasty prospect to hold, but Carroo is buried on the depth chart in 2017 for the Dolphins. He's competing for the no4 spot behind Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills.

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14. LAC - No running room for RB Melvin Gordon

Source: ESPN.com

Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon rushed five times for eight yards in a 13-7 loss to the New Orleans Saints in the preseason Sunday, Aug. 20.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The Chargers have made some changes up front to the offensive line...ones they hope are upgrades over last year. If Gordon plays a full 16-game season, expect him to go over 1,000 yards rushing with near double-digit touchdowns as a centerpiece of that offense. He was a top-10 fantasy RB last year and is going off the board at RB5 (1.10) in 12-team PPR leagues this year.

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15. NO - RB Alvin Kamara shines Sunday

Source: ESPN.com

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara had five carries for 61 yards, including a 50-yard touchdown, and one catch for 22 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers in the preseason Sunday, Aug. 20.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

If you're in a super deep league, add Kamara as a Week 16 or Week 17 'lottery ticket' back. Yes, he's third on the depth chart behind Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram but Kamara could get a longer look at the end of the year...especially if the Saints are out of playoff contention. We love his all-purpose skill set and know that he was a touchdown hog in college at Tennessee. Kamara is a dynasty player we covet...and we'll just have to wait and see if he gets an opportunity to do anything in 2017.

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16. DEN - Garett Bolles ready to move past mistakes

Source: The Denver Post - Nicki Jhabvala

Denver Broncos OT Garett Bolles committed four penalties, including three holding penalties, against the San Francisco 49ers Saturday, Aug. 19, and Bolles said he will watch film and learn from his mistakes.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Bolles just needs to learn how to hold. There's holding on every play in the NFL, but Bolles went over the top with three holding penalties (and a personal foul penalty) on Saturday night against the 49ers. The rookie first-round pick will be the blind-side protector for the Broncos in 2017.

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17. ATL - RB Terron Ward aiming to be No. 3 back

Source: The Associated Press

Atlanta Falcons RB Terron Ward had nine carries for 37 yards and a touchdown in a 17-13 preseason loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday, Aug. 20, and RB Brian Hill had seven carries for 14 yards. Ward and Hill are competing for the third running back spot.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Ward is a tough, no-nonsense runner with some experience over the rookie Hill. It's an interesting situation for dynasty owners to watch given the fact that Tevin Coleman is set to be a free agent in 2019.

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18. PIT - RB James Conner rushed for 98 yards

Source: NFL.com

Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner rushed for 98 yards on 20 carries in the preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, Aug. 20.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Conner's performance wasn't as good as his numbers, but at least he held up under a heavy workload. The Steelers could employ an RBBC if Le'Veon Bell goes down unless Conner distinguishes himself in the remainder of the preseason.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J