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Hi Folks,

Good Wednesday to you. Our John Norton checks in with a nice new IDP article plus we've got the News and Notes you need so let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Eyes of the Guru Preseason Part 1: AFC North
Our John Norton with an overview of defenses in the AFC North with an emphasis on individual defensive players and their fantasy value.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

1. NYJ - WR Brandon Marshall trying to shed weight
2. NYJ - Bryce Petty still needs to improve
3. DEN - OLB Von Miller talks are stagnant
4. BAL - QB Joe Flacco has mental hurdle
5. KC - S Eric Berry could land big deal
6. CHI - WR Alshon Jeffery makes progress on deal
7. PHI - RB Kenjon Barner on the bubble
8. GB - QB Brett Hundley has bright future
9. SF - SF wideout jobs are wide open
10. SF - WR Torrey Smith ready for No. 1 role
11. SF - Two RBs looking to move up order
12. SF - RB Shaun Draughn adds versatility with passing game
13. SF - RB Carlos Hyde sits atop depth chart
14. BUF - RB Karlos Williams has gained weight
15. BUF - QB Tyrod Taylor has high expectations
16. HOU - Tyler Ervin should be ready for camp

1. NYJ - WR Brandon Marshall trying to shed weight

Source: New York Daily News - Seth Marshall

New York Jets WR Brandon Marshall will ideally play at 230 pounds throughout the 2016 season, if head coach Todd Bowles has his way. Marshall said he's played at an average of 234 pounds to 235 pounds the last five seasons.

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Five pounds shouldn't make that much difference in his play, but perhaps he'll feel better and be able to bounce back after games quicker. The QB situation is looking like it's going to be Geno Smith, but we still think Marshall is a high-end WR2 for fantasy owners. And we know how fast negotiations can happen so we're not giving up on Fitzpatrick. Marshall's ADP has him currently WR13 (2.10) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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2. NYJ - Bryce Petty still needs to improve

Source: ESPNNewYork.com - Rich Cimini

New York Jets QB Bryce Petty must work on improving his ball security, pocket presence and reading coverages, according to Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com. Petty may not make the final roster if he doesn't have a good training camp.

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Petty was a risky prospect when the Jets picked him up last year in the draft. He came from a gimmicky Baylor system and never had to make NFL decisions in college. Playing Madden 16 won't help him get better, Petty needs to produce on the field. With the team selecting Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) in the second round of the 2016 NFL draft we see Petty's days with the Jets as numbered.

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3. DEN - OLB Von Miller talks are stagnant

Source: ESPN.com - Jeremy Fowler

Denver Broncos LB Von Miller's long-term contract negotiations with the Broncos have gone cold over the past 10 to 12 days, according to ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler. The two sides still have sizeable gap regarding guaranteed money. Fowler said Miller has supposedly explored holding out until March, at which point he would become a non-exclusive franchise player. Then, another team could offer a first-round pick and third-round pick for Miller.

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It's late June....and we'll be more optimistic about this situation than others. The two sides have until July 15th to make Miller the highest-paid defender in the NFL. Miller is entering his prime and the Broncos defense is the best in the league....so long as Miller is pressuring QBs on the outside. The math here is simple; pay the man!

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4. BAL - QB Joe Flacco has mental hurdle

Source: NFL.com - Kevin Patra

Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco (knee) doesn't have a problem with running or cutting or doing anything physically in his recovery from a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Flacco's main test is facing the thoughts of getting hit again. 'I don't expect to have those kinds of thoughts linger in my head,' Flacco said. 'But you never know until you get out there and do it again.' Flacco is expected to be ready to go for training camp.

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We'll all be watching to see how Flacco responds under pressure...and especially after he gets hit. He's cool under fire, and Flacco only has to overcome the mental part of his recovery. When he takes a hit and the knee feels okay, Flacco will be the QB he's used to being. Fantasy owners should consider him a low-end QB2. His current ADP is QB25 (14.08) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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5. KC - S Eric Berry could land big deal

Source: ESPN.com - Jeremy Fowler

Kansas City Chiefs SS Eric Berry has a reasonable chance to become the highest-paid safety and top Minnesota Vikings FS Harrison Smith's $51.25 million deal.

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Things have been a bit quiet on the Berry front. The two sides have until July 15th to work out a new long-term deal. Berry fought back from cancer and can continue to be an impact player for the Chiefs. His deal should start in the neighborhood of Harrison Smith's contract. We'll know more about the likelihood of a new deal for Berry when the deadline gets much closer.

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6. CHI - WR Alshon Jeffery makes progress on deal

Source: ESPN.com - Jeremy Fowler

Chicago Bears WR Alshon Jeffery has continued to talk about a long-term contract, and a new deal is possible for the receiver, who received the franchise tag.

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Jeffery showed faith by signing his franchise tender already. He doesn't have much leverage, but signs now indicate he may get the long-term deal he wants. We imagine his contract will look similar to what both Demaryius Thomas (Broncos) and Dez Bryant (Cowboys) received last year as franchise-tagged star WRs.

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7. PHI - RB Kenjon Barner on the bubble

Source: ESPN.com - Phil Sheridan

Philadelphia Eagles RB Kenjon Barner is on the bubble as RB Byron Marshall projects as a younger version of him.

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Both Barner and Marshall played college football at Oregon. Marshall is a 'tweener slot receiver/speed running back who is electric with the ball in his hands. The rookie is coming back from a serious ankle injury that ended his final season for the Ducks after only a few games. We'll see this battle shake out in training camp. Lots of fantasy owners will be dialed into the RB competition behind Ryan Mathews as the starter has a long injury history.

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8. GB - QB Brett Hundley has bright future

Source: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Green Bay Packers QB Brett Hundley has the potential to be a 'solid starter' in the National Football League, according to quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt. He has drawn praise within the organization for his competitiveness.

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Hundley is athletic and can keep plays alive with his feet while keeping his eyes downfield. We're excited about him in dynasty leagues because of his physical potential. However, Hundley needs to prove that he can make plays from the pocket. He needs to throw with better anticipation and develop a better internal clock to feel the pass rush.

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9. SF - SF wideout jobs are wide open

Source: ESPN.com - Michael Wagaman

San Francisco 49ers WRs Bruce Ellington, Quinton Patton and Jerome Simpson are in the mix for the starting job opposite WR Torrey Smith. WR Dres Anderson isn't expected to be consistent enough to shoulder the load, but he is also in the battle. WR DeAndrew White has plenty of size, but he is considered closer to the roster bubble than he is to being a regular contributor.

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This is a spot not many fantasy owners should be looking at. Only those in the deepest of deep leagues should be thinking about a second WR from the 49ers in 2016. Even Smith is a deeper option, sitting at WR54 (11.12) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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10. SF - WR Torrey Smith ready for No. 1 role

Source: ESPN.com - Michael Wagaman

San Francisco 49ers WR Torrey Smith inherits the No. 1 spot in the depth chart with WR Anquan Boldin no longer with the organization. It will be the first time in Smith's career that he is the unquestioned go-to guy. Smith wants to be more than just a deep threat and worked to develop a good rapport with QB Blaine Gabbert in the offseason.

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Gabbert hasn't yet secured the starting job, but he has to be considered the frontrunner as Colin Kaepernick works to come back from three separate offseason surgeries. Smith should only be considered a WR5/WR6 for fantasy owners as this 49ers passing game could be a mess in year one of the Chip Kelly offense. Right now, Smith has an ADP of WR54 (11.12) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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11. SF - Two RBs looking to move up order

Source: ESPN.com - Michael Wagaman

San Francisco 49ers RB DuJuan Harris saw extended reps in the offseason, and he and RB Kelvin Taylor will be looking to move up the depth chart. Currently Harris and Taylor are behind RBs Carlos Hyde and Shaun Draughn in the pecking order.

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Harris is a good all-purpose back, but injuries and inconsistencies have plagued his pro career. Taylor, son of former Jaguars star RB Fred Taylor, is a tough player who is willing to run between the tackles. The rookie never fumbled in his college career at Florida but needs to show better patience and anticipation of cut-back lanes if he wants to play up to his potential as a pro.

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12. SF - RB Shaun Draughn adds versatility with passing game

Source: ESPN.com - Michael Wagaman

San Francisco 49ers RB Shaun Draughn's ability to catch passes brings some versatility to the offense, and beat writer Michael Wagaman predicts Draughn will see plenty of playing time.

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Draughn isn't a name that screams fantasy value. The 49ers will lead the way with Carlos Hyde, and he should be the centerpiece of the rushing attack...if not the entire offense. Hyde is going off the board at RB18 (4.07) in 12-team PPR leagues, and Draughn is not getting drafted. Fantasy owners should keep him on the waiver-wire speed dial just in case something happens to Hyde, but we're not predicting much fantasy value for him if Hyde is healthy.

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13. SF - RB Carlos Hyde sits atop depth chart

Source: ESPN.com - Michael Wagaman

San Francisco 49ers RB Carlos Hyde is expected to keep the top spot in the backfield as long as he can stay healthy.

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Volume and number of snaps is the name of the game with Chip Kelly. Hyde is going to be the lead back in a Kelly system that is going to run as many plays as possible. The inside/outside zone-read option could be good for Hyde. A disappointing fantasy player, Hyde could put up RB2 numbers this season. His current ADP is RB18 (4.07) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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14. BUF - RB Karlos Williams has gained weight

Source: The Buffalo News - Tyler Dunne

Buffalo Bills RB Karlos Williams was carrying extra weight during minicamp, and said he ate so his pregnant fiancé wouldn't feel bad. He has plenty of time to get into shape, but he'll need to be in top form to hold off hungry RBs Mike Gillislee, James Wilder Jr. and Jonathan Williams.

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So it wasn't the devil that made him do it, but instead devil's food cake? Williams needs to get in shape and prove that he's the best backup option behind LeSean McCoy. We love rookie RB Jonathan Williams, and he may end up being the better option...especially if Karlos Williams can't stay in shape and stay healthy.

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15. BUF - QB Tyrod Taylor has high expectations

Source: The Buffalo News - Tyler Dunne

Buffalo Bills QB Tyrod Taylor feels he will restore a winning tradition in Buffalo, and he feels he can do exactly what Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton did last season. 'I am 100 percent confident that I can do that. Cam played very well and willed his team. He took his team to the game that everyone who plays this game wants to get to. I commend him for that. We came in the same year so I definitely kept up with him. We became friends throughout our time in the league. Yes, I am 100 percent confident I can do the things that he did,' Taylor said.

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Taylor does not lack for confidence--or for skill as a passer and runner. He's super quick and fast when running the ball, but we loved what he showed as a passer. Taylor shows incredible deep touch when attacking a defense vertically. His rushing ability makes him an attractive fantasy option. He's a QB2 with the upside to rank as a top-15 fantasy QB in 2016...even in the Bills run-heavy offense.

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16. HOU - Tyler Ervin should be ready for camp

Source: ESPN.com - Tania Ganguli

Houston Texans RB Tyler Ervin (quadriceps) missed some time this offseason because of a quadriceps injury but should be ready for the start of training camp.

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Ervin has incredible speed, quickness and agility. He's able to change direction without losing much speed, and Ervin is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. The rookie is going to compete to be a change-of-pace back behind starter Lamar Miller.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J