Footballguys Daily Email - Volume 10, Issue 96 (Friday, July 24th)

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Hi Folks, Welcome to Weekend. Training camps are HERE. And not a minute too soon. Hang with us as we continue to filter through the mountain of stories each day to bring you the news and notes that you'll need to stay on top of everything. Let's get to it.

J

SITE NEWS

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

ATL - Pat Kirwan: TE Tony Gonzalez 'good for 10 TDs', QB Matt Ryan could throw 25-30

Source: Pat Kirwan, NFL.com

Pat Kirwan, of NFL.com, when asked if he agreed with the idea that Atlanta QB Matt Ryan could throw 25-30 TDs, said "I could not agree with you more." Kirwan said that Ryan told him that the Falcons "are anticipating people experimenting with nickel looks which Matt knows how to get the ball to Gonzalez or others. I think Gonzalez is good for 10 TDs, and Ryan will be very hard to blitz in his second year, because of Tony's presence."

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Reducing the blitzed thrown at Ryan is a good thing, because he got worse against the blitz as the season went on. We still think it's going to be hard for Ryan to throw 25 TDs or Gonzalez to catch 10 unless the Falcons score significantly more than last year, and the team was 10th in scoring, so that will be hard. The main problem is that Michael Turner is so effective in the red zone that it makes it hard to him not to be the first option when they get inside the 10.

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PIT - Schefter: 'Things look very good for Ben Roethlisberger'

Source: Adam Schefter, ESPN

Adam Schefter, of ESPN, reports on his Twitter feed that "Let's just say that sometimes there are things you hear and know, and the things I'm hearing and knowing look very good for Ben." He also said, "(ESPN's) decision on not covering the Ben Roethlisberger story will be proven 100% correct.

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Schefter made sure to say his defense of ESPN was not because he worked for them. Schefter is about as connected as anyone in the business, so we have to give his words a good amount of weight. We still think that regardless of the eventual outcome, if this case hits discovery and lasts into the regular season, it will be a distraction for Roethlisberger.

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DEN - RB Knowshon Moreno predictions: 1500 combined yards and focal point of offense

Source: Bill Williamson, ESPN.com

Bill Williamson, of ESPN.com, reports that the Broncos will make first-round pick RB Knowshon Moreno the focal point of the offense. Matt Williamson, of Scouts Inc., also predicted Moreno would start in week 1, and get 1500 combined yards "maybe 300 of them coming as a pass catcher."

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Matt Williamson's numbers would make Moreno a big steal at his current ADP in the late 4th round. He is yet another RB you can target if you load up early on WR in start 3 WR PPR leagues.

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ARZ - RB Tim Hightower to begin season as starter?

Source: Kent Somers, The Arizona Republic

Kent Somers, of the Arizona Republic, reports that he thinks Tim Hightower will open the season as the Cardinals starter at RB because he is better at picking up blitzes and catching the ball than rookie first-round pick Chris Wells. Somers writes, "My guess is that Hightower is the starter when the season begins, with Wells possibly taking over later in the year, if he deserves it."

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The fantasy football herd flocked to Hightower after his big game vs. St Louis, then flocked away from him when Wells was drafted. With the new commitment to the run in Arizona, marked by Ken Whisenhunt taking over play-calling from now-KC head coach Todd Haley, a combo pick of Wells in the 6th/7th and Hightower in 9th/10th could pay big dividends, especially in week 15 and 16, when the Cards face Detroit and St. Louis.

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ATL - RB Michael Turner could have Holmes-esque red zone opportunity

Source: Pat Kirwan, NFL.com

Pat Kirwan, of NFL.com, reports that he thinks the addition of TE Tony Gonzalez "will provide Michael Turner tremendous opportunities to run for touchdowns in the red zone, just like Priest Holmes did in Kansas City. The reason is that Tony opens up his alignment to the receiver position, forcing a man-and-a-half to cover him. Two receivers on the opposite side forces three defensive players to that group. And that leaves the opponents shy a player in the box to stop the run."

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We've been saying that Gonzalez will create as many TD opportunities for Turner as he vultures away, so don't worry about Turner's TD total. Holmes had one of the best run-blocking lines in recent memory, so maybe asking Turner to match his TD totals of 21 and 27 from 2002 and 2003 is a stretch, but staying at last year's total of 17 shouldn't be a problem.

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TB - Starting QB Luke McCown's job to lose?

Source: Pat Yasinskas, ESPN.com

Pat Yasinskas, of ESPN.com reports that based on everything he has heard, the Tampa Bay starting QB is Luke McCown's "to lose."

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This conflicts with earlier reports that had the battle near even, with McCown having a slight edge because of his longer tenure with the team. Even with Yasinskas's report, we wouldn't draft McCown except 16 team or start 2 QB leagues, because he might not hold the job for long, and that's assuming he wins it.

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ATL - WR Michael Jenkins may have to fight Harry Douglas to start?

Source: Pat Yasinskas, ESPN.com

Pat Yasinskas, of ESPN.com, said in a chat Friday that WR Michael Jenkins "may even have to fight with Harry Douglas for starting job."

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Douglas was a great contributor as a rookie last year, but this doesn't make much sense. The Falcons signed Jenkins to an extension last year, and he is an outstanding blocker, which is very important in Mike Mularkey's power running offense.

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GB - HC McCarthy: 'Don't count out RB Kregg Lumpkin'

Source: Jason Wilde, The Wisconsin State Journal

Jason Wilde, of the Wisconsin State Journal, reports that Packers head coach Mike McCarthy "cautioned not to count out Kregg Lumpkin" in a discussion of the running backs on the team.

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Lumpkin impressed us a lot in his very limited action last year, and between how highly pursued he was coming out of high school and his time at Georgia, he has a good pedigree. We are expecting a bounce-back from Ryan Grant, but if he falters, there are some underrated backs behind him on the depth chart that could threaten to steal touches.

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GB - RB Coach impressed with changes to RB DeShawn Wynn's preparation

Source: Jason Wilde, The Wisconsin State Journal

Jason Wilde, of the Wisconsin State Journal, reports that Green Bay RB coach Edgar Bennett has been impressed with the changes RB DeShawn Wynn has made in the last year. "I'm very proud of how he handled the situation and how he learned from the situation (last year)," Bennett said. "His preparation, the way he made adjustments as far as from a physical standpoint, his maintenance on his body, changing his eating habits, I think he did a fantastic job of that and I think it's paying dividends, based off of his performance."

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Wynn was impressive in week 17 vs. Detroit last year, with 106 yards on seven carries. He was an underachiever at Florida who always looked like he had the talent to play in the NFL, but not the dedication. If he has truly made those kinds of changes permanently, he could be a bigger factor in the Packer backfield than anyone is anticipating right now.

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ARZ - WR Early Doucet will have hard time getting on the field

Source: Kent Somers, The Arizona Republic

Kent Somers, of the Arizona Republic, reports that second-year WR Early Doucet will have trouble getting active on gamedays because one on the five receiver spots is reserved for special teams ace Sean Morey, and the #4 receiver, Jerheme Urban, has proven he can contribute on special teams, while Doucet hasn't.

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Doucet showed a lot of promise at LSU before he started having nagging injuries in his senior season. Because of his situation, he might become the type of WR that everyone assumes is a bust because he can't on the field, when really it's more of a "wait your turn" situation. Doucet did get praise from the coaching staff, and he cross-trained at all of the WR positions last year, so if an opportunity arises, it sounds like he'll be ready to seize it.

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TB - Bucs interest in WR Joe Horn confirmed

Source: Roy Cummings, The Tampa Tribune

Roy Cummings, of the Tampa Tribune, confirmed that WR Joe Horn "has definitely been a topic of conversation at One Buc Place". Cummings reports that "the holdup in the whole matter as it sits now is apparently Bucs GM Mark Dominik." Horn is being considered as a replace for Ike Hilliard in the slot.

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We're not sure how much Horn has left in the tank, but Hilliard averaged almost three catches a game in the role last year, and had three games with six catches, so there's some potential for Horn in deep PPR leagues if he gets signed by the Bucs.

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BAL - WR Drew Bennett undergoing physical

Source: Edward Lee, The Baltimore Sun

Edward Lee, of The Baltimore Sun, reports the Baltimore Ravens are going to give unrestricted free-agent WR Drew Bennett (Rams) a physical after he worked out of the team Friday, July 24. He appears to be the team's focus among the receivers that worked out.

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We wouldn't rush out to pick up Bennett, both because of his poor performance last year for the Rams, and the possibility that Derrick Mason could report to the team and play this season.

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DEF - PHI - Eagles name McDermott new DC but Johnson won't be easy to replace

Source: Sal Paolantonio, of ESPN

Sal Paolantonio, of ESPN, reports that former defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's "uncanny ability to devise new wrinkles week after week" will be very difficult to replace, especially because veteran defensive leader Brian Dawkins has gone to Denver. "The thing about Jim was his ability to watch what was happening on the field and counterpunch," said former Eagles cornerback Lito Sheppard, who now plays for Ryan in New York. "That takes knowledge and ability; Sean has that. But it also takes instincts and experience. And you can only get that by doing it."

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McDermott's experience with and deep knowledge of Johnson's zone blitz scheme will keep the defense in the same attack mindset that we're used to seeing, but the real test will come when opponent show they have found mismatches and flaws to exploit, because that's when McDermott will have to adjust on the fly.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Have a great Saturday and we'll see you tomorrow with the update.

J