Footballguys Daily Email - Volume 10, Issue 113 (Monday, August 10th)
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Hi Folks,
Good Tuesday to you. This is starting to get ridiculous I know but we've got another day with a mountain of new Fantasy Football content for you. Tons of new articles, plus the all important new and updated projections. And not to mention all the news and notes you'll need. Enough talk - let's get to it.
J
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New Projections Released
Above all else, Footballguys.com boils down to one thing - projecting how players will perform this season. That drives everything we do from cheatsheets to the Draft Dominator to strategy. It's our backbone. So naturally, we want to have the most up to date projections we possibly can. Because as you can read below with the news stories for today, things change quickly. We've released a new set today and they'll continue to be updated as news breaks.
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Projection Tweaks
When we tweak projections, we always have a reason. Why not share that with folks? We do just that here as our David Dodds lays out some of the thinking behind the recent moves.
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Redraft Overall Rankings
Things move quickly around here. Our staff stays right on top of it updating their rankings constantly. You can see what we're thinking here.
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Draft Dominator Application
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VBD Excel App
For the guys that still love the old school version VBD Excel App, we have that updated for you as well.
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Backup Quarterbacks
Our Jason Wood takes a look at that most important, but often overlooked position: The Backup QB. Who are the guys ready to soar if given the opportunity and who are the career clip board holders? Find out here.
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The Big Picture - Version 4
Our Mike Herman with another updated version of one of the coolest documents in all of pro football. The Big Picture. Everything about every team - all on one page.
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Projections Dominator Application
New projections mean a new Projections Dominator App. You know the drill.
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From the Gut - IDP Version
Our Jene Bramel takes our always popular "From The Gut" article and applies it to Individual Defensive Players (IDP).
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Take PRIDE In Your Draft Night
Our Jeff Pasquino offers some keys to a successful fantasy football draft.
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Points Per "Deception"
Our Jeff Pasquino looks at the PPR (Points Per Reception) rule more deeply than what you'll likely find elsewhere.
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
1. KC - WR Dwayne Bowe not in the starting lineup right now2. CAR - WR Steve Smith carted off with shoulder injury
3. TB - WR Antonio Bryant expected to be out 3-4 weeks
4. KC - WR Dwayne Bowe on wrong side of HC Haley
5. ARI - RB Tim Hightower separating himself from RB Chris Wells
6. DEN - WR Eddie Royal not listed as a returner on the depth chart
7. DEN - WR Brandon Marshall not listed with starters
8. STL - WR Tim Carter replacing WR Donnie Avery
9. CIN - WR Chris Henry getting a lot of work in the redzone
10. SEA - WR Nate Burleson leading the pack
11. NE - RB Fred Taylor has more left in the tank
12. DEN - WR Jabar Gaffney listed as starter on first depth chart
13. TEN - QB Vince Young could start preseason game
14. TB - TE Kellen Winslow has a vital role for the offense
15. DAL - TE Jason Witten mentoring TE Martellus Bennett
16. DAL - RB Felix Jones misses morning practice Monday
17. CAR - WR Dwayne Jarrett a shot to be the feature receiver in preseason
18. NYJ - RB Leon Washington to get 300 touches?
19. CIN - TE Ben Utecht could be out for the year
20. NYG - RB Ahmad Bradshaw improving his pass protection
21. NYJ - WR Chansi Stuckey the second best receiver behind Cotchery
22. BAL - WR Justin Harper opening eyes
23. JAX - Attention to be on the passing game
24. HOU - TE James Casey better than good
25. CLE - Quarterback battle remains open
26. CLE - HC Mangini disputes agent's claims
27. ARI - Cardinals could use committee at tight end
28. IND - RB Joseph Addai rounding back into form
KC - WR Dwayne Bowe not in the starting lineup right now
Source: Adam Teicher - the Kansas City Star
Adam Teicher, from the Kansas City Star, reports on his video blog that new Chiefs head coach Todd Haley has removed WR Dwayne Bowe from the first team depth chart. Teicher claims the coach doesn't think Bowe is "getting with the program" as far as conditioning and preparation.
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Dwayne Bowe will be the week 1 starter for the Kansas City Chiefs and he has a chance to lead the NFL in targets this season. Just like McDaniels putting Marshall on the second team in Denver, Todd Haley is making a statement to his star receiver. If Bowe responds positively and starts to play and prepare better then there's no doubt the coach will put him at the top of the depth chart.
CAR - WR Steve Smith carted off with shoulder injury
Source: Darin Gantt - the Rock Hill Herald
Darin Gantt, of the Rock Hill Herald, reports that Panthers WR Steve Smith has been carted off the field with a right shoulder injury. Gantt also reported that Smith did not look happy about it.
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Gulp. In a training camp season riddled with injuries to wide receivers, this could be the biggest one yet. X-rays were negative but Smith's status for the preseason seems to be up in the air at this moment.
TB - WR Antonio Bryant expected to be out 3-4 weeks
Source: Scott Reynolds - PewterReport.com
Scott Reynolds, of PewterReport.com, reports Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Antonio Bryant (knee) is expected to miss three to four weeks after undergoing a knee scope. The goal is to have the surgery now in order to have him ready to go by Week 1.
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Getting back on time after these kinds of procedures can be dicey. We are moving Bryant out of the WR2 tier for now, but we aren't moving Michael Clayton up that much because he hasn't shown the ability to get open on his own with regularity since his rookie year. If anyone benefits from this, it's Kellen Winslow.
KC - WR Dwayne Bowe on wrong side of HC Haley
Source: Kent Babb - the Kansas City Star
Kent Babb, of the Kansas City Star, reports that WR Dwayne Bowe took some reps with the second and third team in practice on Monday, August 10. After practice head coach Todd Haley said, "We are going to do everything we can to find players that do it our way. There is no spot taken right now."
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Similar story that Adam Teicher is reporting on his video blog. Bowe came into camp out of shape, and Haley has been known to ride receivers during his tenures in Dallas and Arizona. Hopefully Bowe will get the message, but the risk that he doesn't pushes him down to the bottom of the top 10-12 fantasy WRs.
ARI - RB Tim Hightower separating himself from RB Chris Wells
Source: Darren Urban - AZCardinals.com
Darren Urban, of AZCardinals.com, reports Arizona Cardinals RB Tim Hightower is stretching the distance between himself and RB Chris Wells on the depth chart as the No. 1 running back, as Hightower has been improving during training camp while Wells has been injured.
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Hightower is looking like a better pick right now at his ADP than Wells is at his. Hightower was at his best as a short yardage back last year, so he could prove to be the best Cardinal fantasy back not only in September, but even as Wells gets up to speed and gets more work, because Hightower may not give up the goal line job.
DEN - WR Eddie Royal not listed as a returner on the depth chart
Source: Frank Schwab - the Colorado Springs Gazette
Frank Schwab, from the Colorado Springs Gazette, reports rookie CB Alphonso Smith is listed as the starter at kickoff return and punt return. Eddie Royal, who has been lining up deep during practice at both positions, was not on the depth chart. That might be a sign the team is serious about cutting back his special-teams work because of his importance at receiver.
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By all accounts Eddie Royal is going to be the centerpiece of this offense. He is going to be the Wes Welker of the Broncos offense, and thus he could catch 80+ passes on the season. Royal makes a perfect target in this offense because of his consistent hands and run after the catch ability.
DEN - WR Brandon Marshall not listed with starters
Source: Frank Schwab - the Colorado Springs Gazette
Frank Schwab, of the Colorado Springs Gazette, reports Denver Broncos WR Brandon Marshall (hip) is not listed as a starter in the team's first depth chart.
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This is a message to Marshall. We'll see if he receives it. Right now, we wouldn't take him before the fourth round.
STL - WR Tim Carter replacing WR Donnie Avery
Source: CBSSports.com
CBSSports.com reports St. Louis Rams WR Tim Carter stepped into the starting rotation in place of injured WR Donnie Avery (foot) during practice Monday, Aug. 10.
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This is a bit of surprise as both Keenan Burton and Laurent Robinson were working with the ones on the other side. It seemed like they might become the starting combo while Avery is out.
CIN - WR Chris Henry getting a lot of work in the redzone
Source: Carlos Holmes - the Dayton Daily News
Carlos Holmes, from the Dayton Daily News, reports wide receiver Chris Henry has dropped his fare share of passes during practice, but come game time he's money in the bank. Henry made a nice one-hand grab in the back right corner of the end zone in the Mock Game, but was unable to keep both feet in bounds. Henry's number was called again on a later drive in the red zone on the same play. This play was a staple for the Bengals offense allowing Henry to use his athleticism and leaping ability to go up and over defenders in the endzone.
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Chris Henry may not be a starting wide receiver, but could be a TD vulture for the team because he's such a great target in the red zone.
SEA - WR Nate Burleson leading the pack
Source: Clare Farnsworth - Seahawks.com
Clare Farnsworth, from Seahawks.com, reports the leaders of the pack have been the starters: Nate Burleson, the split end, who appears fully recovered from tearing the ACL in his left knee in the '08 opener; and flanker T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the team's big free agent addition who has been as proficient and productive as advertised.
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Nate Burleson is a forgotten man in fantasy circles, but he shouldn't be. The Seahawks ground game isn't exactly dominant and if QB Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy he should regain his form and be a productive player. Burleson will take advantage of defenses focused on stopping T.J. Houshmandzadeh and TE John Carlson. His current ADP is WR58, so you can get him as a value pick and add him late in your draft.
NE - RB Fred Taylor has more left in the tank
Source: Albert Breer - the Sporting News
Albert Breer, from the Sporting News, reports that he had a scout tell him last week during his road trip that RB Fred Taylor has more left in the tank than you might think, and Breer saw some of that on some zone runs this morning. These plays force a back to read the seam in the defense, and cut back into them. What you could see from Taylor is that he's still capable of sticking his foot in the ground, and exploding into his cut. He won't be the Taylor from the early years. But he should have a pretty serious role here.
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The Patriots are going to use a RBBC with Taylor being the lead back and he could finish the year as the team's leading rusher. Fantasy owners in search of a quality backup could do a lot worse than Fred Taylor. While he won't set the world on fire he could rack up around 750 yards rushing with 5-6 touchdowns.
DEN - WR Jabar Gaffney listed as starter on first depth chart
Source: Bill Williamson - ESPN.com
Bill Williamson, of ESPN.com, reports Denver Broncos WR Jabar Gaffney is listed as a starter on the team's first depth chart.
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Brandon Marshall is listed behind Jabar Gaffney on the depth chart and the Pro Bowl receiver is currently seen as a backup on his team. Gaffney has been catching everything in practice and knows this offense like the back of his hand. Marshall hasn't practiced since August 2nd, and perhaps the coach is trying to motivate his big wide receiver. Remember, Mike Shanahan had to basically call out Marshall in the media during training camp last year because the receiver didn't seem to be able to play through pain.
TEN - QB Vince Young could start preseason game
Source: Jim Wyatt - The Tennessean
Jim Wyatt, of The Tennessean, reports Tennessee Titans head coach Jeff Fisher said QB Vince Young could start one of the team's remaining preseason games.
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Young is in a battle with Patrick Ramsey to be the backup QB behind Kerry Collins, and will be given every opportunity to win the job. He threw a touchdown and an interception in last night's game versus Buffalo but at times looked lost on the field. Ramsey plays more like Collins than does Young, so the team may feel Ramsey is the better option at backup because in case of injury they wouldn't have to look that much different on offense.
TB - TE Kellen Winslow has a vital role for the offense
Source: John Romano - the St. Petersburg Times
John Romano, from the St. Petersburg Times, reports Kellen Winslow can help the Bucs get creative with their formations. Instead of using a three-receiver set, they could employ a two-tight end formation with Winslow either splitting wide or lining up in the slot. The appeal is that Winslow, at 6-4, 240 pounds, becomes a matchup problem for smaller defensive backs or slower linebackers. "Usually, when you have a top, Grade A receiver, he is outside. You call man (coverage), you get whoever you want matched up on him," coach Raheem Morris said. "When you are talking about a tight end, you are talking about messing with the core of the defense. Are you going to dedicate and take one of your best players to mirror him and risk the potential that somebody else might get you? There are just so many things that go on inside the core when you try and match up with a player like that."
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If Kellen Winslow can stay healthy he should easily be a top 10 fantasy tight end by the end of the season. The Bucs may have quite the pass catching trio in WR Antonio Bryant, RB Derrick Ward, and TE Kellen Winslow. This means defenses can't focus on shutting down a single player. A balanced offense from Tampa should help move the chains, and Winslow could become the most trusted target for the starting quarterback.
DAL - TE Jason Witten mentoring TE Martellus Bennett
Source: Tim McMahon - the Dallas Morning News
Tim McMahon, from the Dallas Morning News, reports Jason Witten is mentoring second-year tight end Martellus Bennett. They also form what ought to be the league's most potent one-two TE punch, now that Bennett knows what he's doing well enough to play a significantly expanded role after a solid rookie season. While Witten is solid as ever, the emergence of Bennett as a potentially budding star has been one of the major storylines in a drama-free camp. "To the media, it might seem like it's a surprise," Witten said. "But he's not just a backup that doesn't get very many reps. He's a critical part of what we're going to do, and that's why the expectations are high for him." Bennett appears ready to reach those expectations, thanks in part to some tough love from a Pro Bowl tight end.
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Fantasy owners need to keep in mind that Bennett is a critical part of what this team wants to do on offense. While questions at the WR position abound, the team could rely on their TEs and Felix Jones to catch passes and move the chains. Witten will still be one of the most targeted players in the league, but Bennett could make for a nice fantasy backup TE.
DAL - RB Felix Jones misses morning practice Monday
Source: Associated Press
The Associated Press reports Dallas Cowboys RB Felix Jones (toe) did not participate in morning practice Monday, Aug. 10. He said he would practice in the afternoon.
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It's the same toe that he had surgery on last year, so this bears watching.
CAR - WR Dwayne Jarrett a shot to be the feature receiver in preseason
Source: Charlotte Observer
The Charlotte Observer is reporting Dwayne Jarrett is the team's No. 3 receiver and will get a shot at perhaps being the Panthers' featured receiver in the preseason. And guys like Jason Carter, Kenneth Moore, Marcus Monk and Ryne Robinson -- all trying to fit in there behind Jarrett, should see their playing time increase.
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Dwayne Jarrett has failed to live up to expectations in his pro career, and 2009 may be a make or break year for him. The Panthers want to have a run-heavy offense, but when they need to air it out the team must have a threat other than Steve Smith. Jarrett could be that threat because of his size and leaping ability, but he will need to improve his route running and concentration if he's ever to reach his potential.
NYJ - RB Leon Washington to get 300 touches?
Source: Peter King - SI.com
Peter King, from SI.com, notes Leon Washington touched the ball 123 times from scrimmage last year, a ridiculously low number for one of football's 10 most dangerous players. That's about to change.
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The Jets know that Washington is a special weapon and would be wise to get him as many touches as possible. Several smaller backs have had success with big workloads, and Washington could be next in that line even though he's a little smaller than most. The Jets will get creative with the way they get Leon the ball and will get him in open space where he can use his quickness, speed, and agility to rack up yardage.
CIN - TE Ben Utecht could be out for the year
Source: Geoff Hobson - Bengals.com
Geoff Hobson, from Bengals.com, asks what decision does tight end Ben Utecht make after he meets the neurologists Monday and Tuesday following test to discuss his injury history? Is he out for the year or longer or does he come back? If he's out, that would give the team a blocking tight end in Daniel Coats and a receiving tight end in rookie Chase Coffman. The two remaining tight ends on the roster, '08 sixth-rounder Matt Sherry and college free agent Darius Hill, aren't blockers and the Bengals may decide if they have to go out and get one for the last spot at that position.
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The Bengals don't use their TE very much, but this is still a blow to the offense. Utecht is currently listed as second on the depth chart behind Daniel Coats. Rookie Chase Coffman could be a playmaker at the position, but he has to stay healthy and develop his pro game before we can expect big things from him.
NYG - RB Ahmad Bradshaw improving his pass protection
Source: Jay Greenburg - the New York Post
Jay Greenburg, from the New York Post, reports The Giants' three-headed running-back machine of Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward is down to two, with Ward a salary-cap casualty and a Buccaneer, signing a four-year $17 million contract with Tampa Bay. That has re-made Bradshaw into part of a one-two-punch with the pounding Jacobs. "He's caught and run the ball well, and his pass protection has improved, which has to go forward to be a solid part of his game," said Tom Coughlin.
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Many people are expecting Bradshaw to match Derrick Ward's production from last year and improving his pass protection will help him get on the field more. The Giants have a completely revamped WR corps, so they may lean on their run game more than ever in 2009. Bradshaw may have a hard time matching Ward's numbers as the Giants have two very capable backs behind him that may demand playing time. Bradshaw, Danny Ware, and rookie Andre Brown will all see the field in relief of Brandon Jacobs.
NYJ - WR Chansi Stuckey the second best receiver behind Cotchery
Source: Dave Hutchinson - the Newark Star-Ledger
Dave Hutchinson, from the Newark Star-Ledger, reports wide receiver Chansi Stuckey had another sensational practice and is by far the second-best receiver on the roster behind Jerricho Cotchery. He's primarily a slot receiver, though, and it'll be interesting to see if the Jets leave him there full-time. Rex said Stuckey can also play outside and didn't sound reluctant to put him there. Once again, Ryan said he's happy with his receivers ("Maybe I'm wrong," he said) but he didn't rule out signing a veteran. "It depends who it is," he said.
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The Jets receiving corps is very inexperienced behind starter Jerricho Cotchery but so far Stuckey is standing out from the pack. Even if he wins the second wide receiver spot he will only be the third or fourth option in the passing game behind Cotchery, TE Dustin Keller, and RB Leon Washington.
BAL - WR Justin Harper opening eyes
Source: Ken Murray - the Baltimore Sun
Ken Murray, from the Baltimore Sun, reports that in the Ravens' first two weeks of training camp, no player showed flashes more often than Justin Harper, the second-year wide receiver who almost routinely got behind the secondary to make long catches.
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Harper has ideal size for a NFL wide receiver, plus he's fast enough to get on top of a defense in a hurry. Mark Clayton has taken Harper under his wing and helped him learn the mental side of the game. Coaches say that's the biggest difference in Harper as he enters his second year. Clayton's hamstring tear opened up the door for Harper to show coaches what he's learned and so far he's been very impressive. The Ravens are looking for someone to emerge opposite Derrick Mason and Justin Harper could be that player.
JAX - Attention to be on the passing game
Source: Vic Ketchman - Jaguars.com
Vic Ketchman, from Jaguars.com, reports David Garrard has had passes sail on him. Why? That's the question that has to be answered. Is he overstriding? That's the usual cause of passes that sail. Two summers ago, when Garrard won the job on the strength of a fantastic training camp and preseason, Ketchman made the comment that he looked like a pitcher who had taken something off his fastball and, as a result, was throwing more strikes and fewer balls. That's want Ketchman wants to see again - Garrard take something off his fast ball and start throwing strikes again.
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Garrard is having an up and down camp as he gets used to his new weapons on offense. The Jaguars may have to rely on Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game more than they expect if Garrard's struggles continue into the regular season.
HOU - TE James Casey better than good
Source: Jerome Solomon - the Houston Chronicle
Jerome Solomon, from the Houston Chronicle, reports James Casey has been better than good. The guy is a player. Backups, or at least the Texans' backups can't control him. He knows how to find holes in a defense. If his camp play can translate to games, he could be a red zone weapon that will make a difference.
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Casey is an extremely versatile player (the guy lined up at 7 different positions in one game!) and the Texans are going to use him in a number of ways. The NFL is a game of mismatches, and players like Casey give the offense an advantage. He may be officially listed as a TE, but expect him to line up at TE, RB, H-back, WR, and even play a little Wildcat QB.
CLE - Quarterback battle remains open
Source: George M. Thomas - the Akron Beacon Journal
George M. Thomas, of the Akron Beacon Journal, reports Cleveland Browns QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson were both inconsistent during a scrimmage Sunday, Aug. 9. The quarterback battle is expected to last well into the preseason. 'I thought both guys had their moments on the plus side and the side that we still need to work on,' head coach Eric Mangini said. 'They moved the team at different times with different levels of effectiveness.' Quinn completed 11-of-19 passes for 121 yards, including a 51-yard touchdown pass and an interception. Anderson completed 12-of-21 passes for 107 yards and an interception, and he scored a touchdown on a 6-yard scramble.
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The battle rages on, and unlike the San Francisco battle, this one could be decided by who is the least bad QB, instead of who is the best QB.
CLE - HC Mangini disputes agent's claims
Source: ESPN.com
ESPN.com reports Cleveland Browns head coach Eric Mangini disputed claims made by the agent for WR Syndric Steptoe (labrum), who said Steptoe's season-ending injury was caused due to poor practice conditions. Mangini, who reportedly cut short a practice Saturday, Aug. 8, because of inclement weather, said the injury Steptoe sustained wasn't a result of field conditions or the nature of the drills. 'Seventy-nine other guys were able to practice effectively,' Mangini said. 'And really the play that he was injured on didn't have anything to do with the elements.'
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No matter who the coach is for Cleveland, they seem to have controversy swirling around their injured players.
ARI - Cardinals could use committee at tight end
Source: Kent Somers - The Arizona Republic
Kent Somers, of The Arizona Republic, reports the Arizona Cardinals could use a committee at their tight end position, with starts and playing time dictated by game plans and opponents. Tight ends coach Freddie Kitchens said TEs Stephen Spach, Ben Patrick, Leonard Pope, Anthony Becht and Dominique Byrd all bring "something different to the table."
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Just another reason to keep avoiding Cardinals tight ends for your fantasy teams.
IND - RB Joseph Addai rounding back into form
Source: Tom James - the Tribune Star
Tom James, from the Tribune Star, reports running back Joseph Addai appears to be fine after undergoing minor knee surgery earlier this spring. Addai saw limited work during the team's spring organized team activities or minicamps, but he's held up well during the first four days of training camp. "He looks good. Joseph is coming along well. He's moving it and his quickness is where it's been in terms of overall quickness. He's getting a little bit [better] every day. I think he's feeling comfortable after his time off," Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said.
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Addai is best used when in a RBBC, and he will face tough competition for the starting job from rookie Donald Brown. The Colts want to keep both backs fresh for what they hope is a Super Bowl run and fantasy owners need to take note. This RBBC could be split 50/50 and if Brown scores more touchdowns than Addai he could be the leading fantasy RB on the team.
That'll do it for today, Folks.
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J
