The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule
(USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but
are not limited to) the following:
- Fantasy points driven
Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on
fantasy points.
- Removed bias of schedule
Consider the following defenses: Defense A faced the top 16 offenses while
Defense B faced the worst 16 offenses.
If both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points
last season, are they equally strong?
Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better
offenses. This bias of schedule has
been removed from USOS.
- Positional breakdown
If you are looking for a WR, it’s much more relevant to see SOS data for
WRs.
- Comparison of 2005 schedule to 2004
schedule
On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at
RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers
than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's
not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an
equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar
numbers as the year before.
USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared
to last season. An easier set of
opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this
season points to decreased production.
Explanation of USOS Tables
Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of
these tables.
The “Tm” Column
This is simply the NFL team.
The Values
Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy
points on a per game basis.
The Coloring of the
Values
The red values indicate that the team has one of the
eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Red was chosen because the team could heat up
statistically. The blue values indicate that the team
has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Blue was chosen because the team could cool
down statistically.
- Red
is a hot
team with a good schedule
- Blue
is a cold
team with a bad schedule
The “2005” Column
This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each
team’s opponents for this season. For
example, Arizona’s opponents in
2005 are expected to allow QBs to score 17.7 fantasy points per game. This value would be considered the team’s
preseason 2005 SOS.
The “2004” Column
This is the average fantasy points allowed by each team’s
opponents for last season. For example, Arizona’s
opponents in 2004 allowed QBs to score 17.4 fantasy points per game. This value would be considered the team’s
end-of-season 2004 SOS.
The “Dif%” Column
This is the percentage difference between the 2005 SOS and
the 2004 SOS. A positive value points to
an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult
SOS compared to last season. For
example, using the QB table, Cincinnati’s
Carson Palmer has a “Dif%” value of 12.8.
This means his 2005 schedule is 12.8% easier than last year’s
campaign. For this reason, it would not
be a surprise to see his numbers rise this season.
The “Easy” Column
This is the number of easy opponents each team will face
this season. An easy opponent is defined
as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players
with as many easy games as possible.
The “Tough” Column
This is the number of tough opponents each team will face
this season. A tough opponent is defined
as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players
with as few tough games as possible.
The “First5” Column
This is the SOS for the first five weeks of the NFL season
(note that some teams only play four games in this timeframe). This value is useful to determine how players
should be expected to open the season.
For example, looking at the QB table, Atlanta’s
Michael Vick has one of the lowest “First5” values. This means he has a relatively difficult
opening stretch of opponents. It would
not be a surprise to see him struggle out of the gate.
The “Play” Column
This is similar to the “First5” column except that it is the
SOS for the final five weeks of the
NFL season. This value is useful to
determine how players should be expected to end the season. This is a critical stretch of games as your
fantasy playoffs take place here. As an
example, consider that Seattle’s
Matt Hasselbeck has a “Play” value of 19.1.
That means he has a relatively easy stretch of opponents to end the
season. It would not be a surprise to
see him lead many teams to fantasy championships.
The “Wk1” through
“Wk17” Columns
These values are the expected strength of each team’s
opponent for that particular week (Wk1 is Week 17, etc). This is very useful when searching for
backups for your stud players. For
example, if you have Peyton Manning he is going to start for you every week
except for Week 8. Obviously, it would
be in your best interest to find a backup QB with an easy opponent for that
week. Scanning that column quickly shows
that Carolina, Chicago,
Cincinnati, Miami,
Oakland, San
Diego, and Tennessee
face the weakest opponents. From these
teams is where you should find your backup to Manning.
Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Quarterbacks
|
Tm
|
2005
|
2004
|
Dif%
|
Easy
|
Tough
|
First5
|
Play
|
|
Ari
|
17.7
|
17.4
|
1.9
|
3
|
2
|
17.7
|
17.3
|
|
Atl
|
16.9
|
17.9
|
-5.2
|
5
|
5
|
16.6
|
16.6
|
|
Bal
|
17.3
|
16.3
|
6.3
|
5
|
2
|
19.2
|
18.4
|
|
Buf
|
17.1
|
16.3
|
5.1
|
3
|
3
|
16.9
|
15.6
|
|
Car
|
17.1
|
17.8
|
-4.1
|
5
|
5
|
17.1
|
17.2
|
|
Chi
|
17.6
|
18.5
|
-5.0
|
7
|
4
|
16.4
|
18.7
|
|
Cin
|
17.3
|
15.3
|
12.8
|
6
|
5
|
17.6
|
17.0
|
|
Cle
|
17.4
|
15.4
|
12.9
|
5
|
5
|
18.8
|
16.5
|
|
Dal
|
17.4
|
16.7
|
4.1
|
3
|
3
|
17.6
|
17.8
|
|
Den
|
17.6
|
18.7
|
-5.7
|
4
|
5
|
16.8
|
18.2
|
|
Det
|
17.3
|
18.2
|
-5.1
|
5
|
4
|
16.8
|
18.3
|
|
GB
|
17.1
|
18.3
|
-6.9
|
5
|
3
|
17.1
|
17.0
|
|
Hou
|
17.4
|
19.0
|
-8.9
|
5
|
4
|
16.2
|
16.7
|
|
Ind
|
17.1
|
18.9
|
-9.5
|
4
|
3
|
16.9
|
17.4
|
|
Jac
|
17.5
|
18.8
|
-6.7
|
4
|
4
|
17.2
|
18.8
|
|
KC
|
17.0
|
17.7
|
-3.9
|
2
|
6
|
17.4
|
17.2
|
|
Mia
|
17.2
|
16.0
|
7.4
|
4
|
3
|
15.3
|
17.0
|
|
Min
|
17.4
|
18.7
|
-6.7
|
4
|
3
|
17.0
|
16.3
|
|
NE
|
16.7
|
16.0
|
4.3
|
4
|
6
|
17.4
|
15.0
|
|
NO
|
16.9
|
17.9
|
-6.0
|
3
|
4
|
18.0
|
16.3
|
|
NYG
|
17.5
|
16.4
|
7.0
|
4
|
5
|
17.5
|
18.4
|
|
NYJ
|
16.4
|
15.6
|
5.2
|
3
|
6
|
16.2
|
16.4
|
|
Oak
|
17.1
|
17.8
|
-3.9
|
3
|
4
|
17.9
|
16.8
|
|
Phi
|
17.9
|
17.2
|
3.9
|
3
|
3
|
19.7
|
16.6
|
|
Pit
|
17.5
|
16.1
|
9.2
|
5
|
2
|
18.5
|
17.9
|
|
SD
|
17.5
|
18.1
|
-3.2
|
5
|
5
|
16.2
|
18.9
|
|
SF
|
17.1
|
16.2
|
5.4
|
2
|
5
|
17.0
|
17.0
|
|
Sea
|
17.6
|
16.9
|
4.1
|
3
|
4
|
Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players