Perfect Draft - 12 Teams

Note: This is the first of a 5 part series. This article covers a 12 team draft. The other articles will cover 10 teams, 14 teams, WCOFF scoring and how to apply this to an auction draft. I expect to have all of these versions done before Monday, August 15th.

Aaaah....The Perfect Draft. We have all dreamt of having it. Some of us have experienced it. And for those that have....we want it again and again. And why not? You surely did not subscribe to this website to be average. You want to dominate. You want to have such a good roster that others salivate over who you have. You want them all to come to you when discussing trades. And in this article I am going to break down how to have that perfect draft.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.

ALL PLAYERS HAVE VALUE
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their value and you will build a winning team.

UNDERSTAND WHAT THE AVERAGE GUY THINKS
It is this opinion that allows one to maximize draft value round after round. You may believe someone will be the 4th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait and maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you...believe rookie WRs are always bad...that you should always avoid players after ACL injuries...that drafting anyone over 30 is a sure sign he will get injured, etc then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your team. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value every single round.

So what is value then? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. Let this be our guide. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. I have provided my own Top 200+ list here (based on my projections) that has been sorted by position. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.

Rank	ADP	Diff	Pos	#	Player	Team/Bye
6	4	-2	QB	1	Peyton Manning	Ind/8
17	17	0	QB	2	Daunte Culpepper	Min/5
30	27	-3	QB	3	Donovan McNabb	Phi/6
41	42	1	QB	4	Marc Bulger	StL/9
48	56	8	QB	5	Kerry Collins	Oak/5
52	59	7	QB	6	Michael Vick	Atl/8
59	81	22	QB	7	Jake Plummer	Den/9
65	51	-14	QB	8	Trent Green	KC/5
68	84	16	QB	9	Aaron Brooks	NO/10
75	66	-9	QB	10	Brett Favre	GB/6
81	77	-4	QB	11	Tom Brady	NE/7
86	75	-11	QB	12	Matt Hasselbeck	Sea/8
89	78	-11	QB	13	Carson Palmer	Cin/10
92	89	-3	QB	14	Drew Brees	SD/10
95	120	25	QB	15	Steve McNair	Ten/10
97	97	0	QB	16	Jake Delhomme	Car/7
104	108	4	QB	17	David Carr	Hou/3
108	103	-5	QB	18	Byron Leftwich	Jac/7
113	104	-9	QB	19	Chad Pennington	NYJ/8
119	123	4	QB	20	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit/4
123	119	-4	QB	21	Brian Griese	TB/7
129	132	3	QB	22	Joey Harrington	Det/3
134	149	15	QB	23	Kyle Boller	Bal/3
140	138	-2	QB	24	Eli Manning	NYG/5
148	208	60	QB	25	Patrick Ramsey	Was/3
153	180	27	QB	26	Alex Smith	SF/6
160	206	46	QB	27	Rex Grossman	Chi/4
169	135	-34	QB	28	Kurt Warner	Ari/6
181	166	-15	QB	29	J.P. Losman	Buf/9
190	160	-30	QB	30	Drew Bledsoe	Dal/9
199	229	30	QB	31	Trent Dilfer	Cle/4
206	250	44	QB	32	Gus Frerotte	Mia/4
214	195	-19	QB	33	Jeff Garcia	Det/3
219	250	31	QB	34	Josh McCown	Ari/6
226	250	24	QB	35	A.J. Feeley	Mia/4
232	201	-31	QB	36	Billy Volek	Ten/10
238	250	12	QB	37	Matt Schaub	Atl/8
240	250	10	QB	38	Brad Johnson	Min/5
247	250	3	QB	39	Kelly Holcomb	Buf/9
253	220	-33	QB	40	Philip Rivers	SD/10
258	250	-8	QB	41	Jamie Martin	StL/9
264	250	-14	QB	42	Jon Kitna	Cin/10
275	250	-25	QB	43	Tim Rattay	SF/6
285	250	-35	QB	44	Tommy Maddox	Pit/4
297	250	-47	QB	45	Marques Tuiasosopo	Oak/5
307	250	-57	QB	46	Doug Johnson	Cle/4
1	1	0	RB	1	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD/10
2	3	1	RB	2	Priest Holmes	KC/5
3	2	-1	RB	3	Shaun Alexander	Sea/8
4	7	3	RB	4	Deuce McAllister	NO/10
5	5	0	RB	5	Edgerrin James	Ind/8
7	11	4	RB	6	Domanick Davis	Hou/3
8	8	0	RB	7	Clinton Portis	Was/3
9	15	6	RB	8	Tiki Barber	NYG/5
10	6	-4	RB	9	Willis McGahee	Buf/9
11	12	1	RB	10	Corey Dillon	NE/7
13	25	12	RB	11	Brian Westbrook	Phi/6
14	14	0	RB	12	Kevin Jones	Det/3
15	13	-2	RB	13	Julius Jones	Dal/9
16	24	8	RB	14	Curtis Martin	NYJ/8
18	19	1	RB	15	Rudi Johnson	Cin/10
21	9	-12	RB	16	Jamal Lewis	Bal/3
24	22	-2	RB	17	Steven Jackson	StL/9
25	16	-9	RB	18	Ahman Green	GB/6
29	44	15	RB	19	J.J. Arrington	Ari/6
33	26	-7	RB	20	Lamont Jordan	Oak/5
36	29	-7	RB	21	Tatum Bell	Den/9
38	45	7	RB	22	Michael Bennett	Min/5
42	46	4	RB	23	Warrick Dunn	Atl/8
43	39	-4	RB	24	Carnell Williams	TB/7
51	95	44	RB	25	Thomas Jones	Chi/4
54	34	-20	RB	26	Chris Brown	Ten/10
55	60	5	RB	27	Kevan Barlow	SF/6
57	53	-4	RB	28	DeShaun Foster	Car/7
58	58	0	RB	29	Fred Taylor	Jac/7
63	61	-2	RB	30	Larry Johnson	KC/5
70	102	32	RB	31	Jerome Bettis	Pit/4
74	67	-7	RB	32	Lee Suggs	Cle/4
77	38	-39	RB	33	Ronnie Brown	Mia/4
82	91	9	RB	34	T.J. Duckett	Atl/8
85	48	-37	RB	35	Cedric Benson	Chi/4
91	94	3	RB	36	Reuben Droughns	Cle/4
99	55	-44	RB	37	Duce Staley	Pit/4
105	174	69	RB	38	Mike Anderson	Den/9
107	140	33	RB	39	LaBrandon Toefield	Jac/7
112	112	0	RB	40	Michael Pittman	TB/7
117	96	-21	RB	41	Marshall Faulk	StL/9
124	128	4	RB	42	Eric Shelton	Car/7
131	202	71	RB	43	Kevin Faulk	NE/7
136	110	-26	RB	44	Ricky Williams	Mia/4
142	136	-6	RB	45	Derrick Blaylock	NYJ/8
149	82	-67	RB	46	Travis Henry	Ten/10
158	175	17	RB	47	Chester Taylor	Bal/3
165	161	-4	RB	48	Najeh Davenport	GB/6
170	130	-40	RB	49	Correll Buckhalter	Phi/6
184	212	28	RB	50	Moe Williams	Min/5
189	250	61	RB	51	Tony Fisher	GB/6
194	250	56	RB	52	Zack Crockett	Oak/5
200	250	50	RB	53	Shawn Bryson	Det/3
203	250	47	RB	54	Verron Haynes	Pit/4
208	250	42	RB	55	Ladell Betts	Was/3
215	185	-30	RB	56	Anthony Thomas	Dal/9
220	224	4	RB	57	Mike Alstott	TB/7
227	173	-54	RB	58	Dominic Rhodes	Ind/8
233	191	-42	RB	59	Brandon Jacobs	NYG/5
241	137	-104	RB	60	Frank Gore	SF/6
244	250	6	RB	61	Alvin Pearman	Jac/7
249	215	-34	RB	62	Chris Perry	Cin/10
251	118	-133	RB	63	Stephen Davis	Car/7
255	250	-5	RB	64	Shaud Williams	Buf/9
259	250	-9	RB	65	Lamar Gordon	Mia/4
262	106	-156	RB	66	Mewelde Moore	Min/5
267	250	-17	RB	67	Jonathan Wells	Hou/3
270	199	-71	RB	68	Ryan Moats	Phi/6
276	222	-54	RB	69	Antowain Smith	NO/10
280	172	-108	RB	70	Maurice Morris	Sea/8
286	250	-36	RB	71	Greg Jones	Jac/7
292	250	-42	RB	72	Justin Fargas	Oak/5
298	204	-94	RB	73	Vernand Morency	Hou/3
303	167	-136	RB	74	Ciatrick Fason	Min/5
308	139	-169	RB	75	Marcel Shipp	Ari/6
115	131	16	PK	1	Mike Vanderjagt	Ind/8
122	117	-5	PK	2	Adam Vinatieri	NE/7
130	141	11	PK	3	Jason Elam	Den/9
138	126	-12	PK	4	David Akers	Phi/6
147	165	18	PK	5	Matt Stover	Bal/3
156	152	-4	PK	6	Sebastian Janikowski	Oak/5
162	179	17	PK	7	Ryan Longwell	GB/6
166	163	-3	PK	8	Jeff Wilkins	StL/9
168	198	30	PK	9	Josh Brown	Sea/8
173	194	21	PK	10	Jeff Reed	Pit/4
176	183	7	PK	11	Mike Nugent	NYJ/8
178	184	6	PK	12	Shayne Graham	Cin/10
185	213	28	PK	13	John Kasay	Car/7
193	219	26	PK	14	Jason Hanson	Det/3
198	193	-5	PK	15	Nate Kaeding	SD/10
202	205	3	PK	16	Lawrence Tynes	KC/5
207	250	43	PK	17	Josh Scobee	Jac/7
213	216	3	PK	18	John Carney	NO/10
218	250	32	PK	19	Ryan Lindell	Buf/9
225	250	25	PK	20	Billy Cundiff	Dal/9
231	250	19	PK	21	Rob Bironas	Ten/10
237	221	-16	PK	22	Phil Dawson	Cle/4
246	230	-16	PK	23	Neil Rackers	Ari/6
257	227	-30	PK	24	Jay Feely	NYG/5
269	250	-19	PK	25	Matt Bryant	TB/7
274	250	-24	PK	26	Aaron Elling	Min/5
279	250	-29	PK	27	John Hall	Was/3
284	250	-34	PK	28	Doug Brien	Chi/4
291	250	-41	PK	29	Joe Nedney	SF/6
296	250	-46	PK	30	Olindo Mare	Mia/4
302	250	-52	PK	31	Todd Peterson	Atl/8
306	250	-56	PK	32	Kris Brown	Hou/3

Rank	ADP	Diff	Pos	#	Player	Team/Bye
27	30	3	TE	1	Tony Gonzalez	KC/5
34	32	-2	TE	2	Antonio Gates	SD/10
49	52	3	TE	3	Jason Witten	Dal/9
64	69	5	TE	4	Jeremy Shockey	NYG/5
78	68	-10	TE	5	Alge Crumpler	Atl/8
83	83	0	TE	6	Dallas Clark	Ind/8
98	64	-34	TE	7	Todd Heap	Bal/3
100	105	5	TE	8	Eric Johnson	SF/6
110	113	3	TE	9	L.J. Smith	Phi/6
118	142	24	TE	10	Jeb Putzier	Den/9
126	85	-41	TE	11	Randy McMichael	Mia/4
132	156	24	TE	12	Chris Cooley	Was/3
139	209	70	TE	13	Jerramy Stevens	Sea/8
144	159	15	TE	14	Marcus Pollard	Det/3
150	177	27	TE	15	Ben Troupe	Ten/10
154	250	96	TE	16	Erron Kinney	Ten/10
159	158	-1	TE	17	Bubba Franks	GB/6
163	153	-10	TE	18	Daniel Graham	NE/7
172	111	-61	TE	19	Jermaine Wiggins	Min/5
180	250	70	TE	20	Steve Heiden	Cle/4
186	250	64	TE	21	Mike Seidman	Car/7
188	168	-20	TE	22	Doug Jolley	NYJ/8
195	150	-45	TE	23	Heath Miller	Pit/4
201	250	49	TE	24	Courtney Anderson	Oak/5
211	250	39	TE	25	Mark Campbell	Buf/9
221	189	-32	TE	26	Ben Watson	NE/7
228	250	22	TE	27	Alex Smith	TB/7
234	250	16	TE	28	Jim Kleinsasser	Min/5
243	250	7	TE	29	Kris Wilson	KC/5
248	250	2	TE	30	Aaron Shea	Cle/4
254	250	-4	TE	31	George Wrighster	Jac/7
260	250	-10	TE	32	Matt Schobel	Cin/10
265	250	-15	TE	33	Kyle Brady	Jac/7
271	250	-21	TE	34	Billy Miller	Hou/3
277	250	-27	TE	35	Roland Williams	StL/9
281	250	-31	TE	36	Itula Mili	Sea/8
287	250	-37	TE	37	Anthony Becht	TB/7
293	211	-82	TE	38	Boo Williams	NO/10
299	250	-49	TE	39	Dustin Lyman	Chi/4
309	250	-59	TE	40	Ben Hartsock	Ind/8
12	10	-2	WR	1	Randy Moss	Oak/5
19	18	-1	WR	2	Terrell Owens	Phi/6
20	21	1	WR	3	Torry Holt	StL/9
22	23	1	WR	4	Chad Johnson	Cin/10
23	20	-3	WR	5	Marvin Harrison	Ind/8
26	35	9	WR	6	Reggie Wayne	Ind/8
28	31	3	WR	7	Joe Horn	NO/10
31	28	-3	WR	8	Javon Walker	GB/6
32	37	5	WR	9	Darrell Jackson	Sea/8
35	33	-2	WR	10	Andre Johnson	Hou/3
37	50	13	WR	11	Drew Bennett	Ten/10
39	43	4	WR	12	Roy Williams	Det/3
40	36	-4	WR	13	Hines Ward	Pit/4
44	41	-3	WR	14	Michael Clayton	TB/7
45	40	-5	WR	15	Nate Burleson	Min/5
46	63	17	WR	16	Isaac Bruce	StL/9
47	47	0	WR	17	Steve Smith	Car/7
50	87	37	WR	18	Lee Evans	Buf/9
53	74	21	WR	19	Jimmy Smith	Jac/7
56	73	17	WR	20	Ashley Lelie	Den/9
60	70	10	WR	21	Chris Chambers	Mia/4
61	62	1	WR	22	Donald Driver	GB/6
62	49	-13	WR	23	Anquan Boldin	Ari/6
66	65	-1	WR	24	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari/6
67	54	-13	WR	25	Laveranues Coles	NYJ/8
69	93	24	WR	26	Rod Smith	Den/9
71	57	-14	WR	27	Jerry Porter	Oak/5
72	79	7	WR	28	Deion Branch	NE/7
73	80	7	WR	29	Eric Moulds	Buf/9
76	115	39	WR	30	Donte Stallworth	NO/10
79	76	-3	WR	31	Muhsin Muhammad	Chi/4
80	98	18	WR	32	Eddie Kennison	KC/5
84	101	17	WR	33	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin/10
87	71	-16	WR	34	Derrick Mason	Bal/3
88	86	-2	WR	35	Plaxico Burress	NYG/5
90	92	2	WR	36	Santana Moss	Was/3
93	143	50	WR	37	David Givens	NE/7
96	109	13	WR	38	Keary Colbert	Car/7
101	124	23	WR	39	Keyshawn Johnson	Dal/9
102	154	52	WR	40	Amani Toomer	NYG/5
106	146	40	WR	41	Justin McCareins	NYJ/8
109	134	25	WR	42	Brandon Lloyd	SF/6
111	90	-21	WR	43	Brandon Stokley	Ind/8
116	144	28	WR	44	Antwaan Randle El	Pit/4
120	125	5	WR	45	Mike Williams	Det/3
121	129	8	WR	46	Keenan McCardell	SD/10
127	176	49	WR	47	Antonio Bryant	Cle/4
128	250	122	WR	48	Bernard Berrian	Chi/4
135	197	62	WR	49	Ronald Curry	Oak/5
137	148	11	WR	50	Reche Caldwell	SD/10
141	196	55	WR	51	Joey Galloway	TB/7
146	250	104	WR	52	Jabar Gaffney	Hou/3
151	107	-44	WR	53	Charles Rogers	Det/3
155	122	-33	WR	54	Troy Williamson	Min/5
157	250	93	WR	55	Andre Davis	Cle/4
164	250	86	WR	56	Quincy Morgan	Dal/9
171	181	10	WR	57	Michael Jenkins	Atl/8
175	186	11	WR	58	Kevin Curtis	StL/9
179	190	11	WR	59	Terry Glenn	Dal/9
182	250	68	WR	60	Brandon Jones	Ten/10
187	207	20	WR	61	Samie Parker	KC/5
191	217	26	WR	62	Darius Watts	Den/9
196	114	-82	WR	63	Braylon Edwards	Cle/4
204	164	-40	WR	64	Marcus Robinson	Min/5
209	250	41	WR	65	Ike Hilliard	TB/7
216	188	-28	WR	66	Reggie Williams	Jac/7
222	250	28	WR	67	Marty Booker	Mia/4
229	250	21	WR	68	Justin Gage	Chi/4
235	250	15	WR	69	David Patten	Was/3
242	250	8	WR	70	Eric Parker	SD/10
245	228	-17	WR	71	Robert Ferguson	GB/6
250	250	0	WR	72	Peter Warrick	Cin/10
256	151	-105	WR	73	Mark Clayton	Bal/3
261	250	-11	WR	74	Shaun McDonald	StL/9
266	250	-16	WR	75	Greg Lewis	Phi/6
268	225	-43	WR	76	Bobby Engram	Sea/8
272	250	-22	WR	77	Clarence Moore	Bal/3
278	250	-28	WR	78	Arnaz Battle	SF/6
282	223	-59	WR	79	Joe Jurevicius	Sea/8
288	250	-38	WR	80	Rod Gardner	Car/7
289	250	-39	WR	81	Bryant Johnson	Ari/6
294	187	-107	WR	82	Peerless Price	Atl/8
300	192	-108	WR	83	David Boston	Mia/4
304	250	-54	WR	84	Cedrick Wilson	Pit/4
310	145	-165	WR	85	Tyrone Calico	Ten/10
94	72	-22	Def	1	Baltimore	Bal/3
103	99	-4	Def	2	Buffalo	Buf/9
114	88	-26	Def	3	New England	NE/7
125	100	-25	Def	4	Pittsburgh	Pit/4
133	133	0	Def	5	Tampa Bay	TB/7
143	121	-22	Def	6	Carolina	Car/7
145	171	26	Def	7	NY Jets	NYJ/8
152	182	30	Def	8	Cincinnati	Cin/10
161	116	-45	Def	9	Philadelphia	Phi/6
167	127	-40	Def	10	Atlanta	Atl/8
174	147	-27	Def	11	Minnesota	Min/5
177	170	-7	Def	12	Indianapolis	Ind/8
183	155	-28	Def	13	Washington	Was/3
192	250	58	Def	14	New Orleans	NO/10
197	162	-35	Def	15	Jacksonville	Jac/7
205	169	-36	Def	16	Chicago	Chi/4
210	210	0	Def	17	Arizona	Ari/6
212	218	6	Def	18	Detroit	Det/3
217	226	9	Def	19	Seattle	Sea/8
223	157	-66	Def	20	Dallas	Dal/9
224	178	-46	Def	21	Miami	Mia/4
230	214	-16	Def	22	Kansas City	KC/5
236	250	14	Def	23	Ny Giants	NYG/5
239	200	-39	Def	24	San Diego	SD/10
252	203	-49	Def	25	Denver	Den/9
263	250	-13	Def	26	San Francisco	SF/6
273	250	-23	Def	27	Cleveland	Cle/4
283	250	-33	Def	28	Houston	Hou/3
290	250	-40	Def	29	Green Bay	GB/6
295	250	-45	Def	30	Tennessee	Ten/10
301	250	-51	Def	31	Oakland	Oak/5
305	250	-55	Def	32	St. Louis	StL/9

Let's have the perfect draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK.

Quarterbacks

Simply put, this is one of the deepest fields of quarterbacks I have ever seen. Eleven quarterbacks are "expected" to be drafted in the first 80 picks. Fifteen are "expected" to be drafted by the first 100 picks. And a whopping 20 will be picked by pick 120 on average.

Let me repeat that so it sinks in. Nearly one third of the teams will take their SECOND quarterback by the end of the 8th round.

Simply put, let me say this the easiest way I can - don't be one of those teams. The fantasy points differential between QB5 and QB15 is not enough (in most leagues) to justify spending two picks in the first eight rounds on quarterbacks.

So how many QBs do you need in a perfect 12-team draft?

I think you need two that are not in jeopardy of losing their jobs (unless they get injured). With history as our guide, the top QBs are almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require one starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first three or four are gone. Just scratch off Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, and Donovan McNabb from your cheatsheets. Every one of these players will be drafted too soon because one owner in every league will drink the grape Kool-Aid that is called Stud Quarterbacks.

Don't be that owner. If you do, you will not have the perfect draft.

In fact, I think this is key #1 to winning your league this year. Resist the temptation and let others grab these stars. How can I say that with such conviction? Because draft after draft, I have seen the same thing happen. People overpay for the top stars, and then a lull takes place before a mad rush ensues (starting at the end of round six) for the quality quarterbacks left. This run continues through round nine until about 16 QBs have been taken.

There are two sweet spots to target for QBs this year. The first appears early in the sixth round. Kerry Collins and Michael Vick are the two players to target here.

Kerry Collins, Oak (Value = 48, ADP = 56)

Michael Vick, Atl (Value = 52, ADP = 59)

We expect big things from both of these players this year. Collins because of the addition of Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan and Vick because this is his second year in this offense. Both of these players could easily be gone by round 6. And if that happens, do not panic...just move to plan B.

Plan B at QB: As you enter the seventh round, take one of these excellent QBs:

Jake Plummer, Den (Value = 59, ADP = 81) - Almost always available

Aaron Brooks, NO (Value = 68, ADP = 84) - Almost always available

Brett Favre, GB (Value = 75, ADP = 66 ) - Usually drafted already

Tom Brady, NE (Value = 81, ADP = 77) - Usually available

Grab the best one you can. I expect them all to have great years.

Now sit back and enjoy the panic from the other owners as the quarterbacks keep flying off the board. Later in the draft, set your sites on getting one of these quality backups:

Steve McNair, Ten (Value = 95, ADP =120) in the 10th round or later.

Jake Delhomme, Car (Value = 97, ADP = 97) in the 10th round or later.

Again, the general strategy is to wait at QB unless exceptional value presents itself early.

No need to panic at this position. Just let the draft come to you. There is great value to be gained by waiting. Typically after those first 16 QBs are drafted (usually by the middle of round nine), QBs will come off the board at about two per round until all of the starters are taken.

Additionally the following QBs are rarely drafted but could be homeruns if their starting QB went down to injury:

Jon Kitna, Cin

Brad Johnson, Min

Todd Collins, KC

In leagues with deep drafts, taking a flier on one of these with your last pick in the draft could yield outstanding results. Less than half of the QBs in the league play all 16 games each year. The other owners will call you lucky if you hit on one of these players, but the engraving on the trophy still looks the same.

One last QB strategy you have to have in your arsenal this year is the handcuff play with the Detroit quarterbacks. There is no questioning the talent this team has at running back (Kevin Jones) and wide receiver (Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, Kevin Johnson, and Mike Williams). They also have a solid TE in Marcus Pollard. Their defense is below average. They play Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay twice and are likely to be involved in some