Tier 1 - "The Gold Standard"
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These are the QBs that are almost stone cold locks to finish in the Top 5 barring injury. Brees has been Top 5 all three of the seasons he has spent with the Saints. Manning finished out of the Top 5 (No. 6) for the first time since he was a rookie last year, but that is easily explainable by a second knee surgery that hampered him until midseason. Brady only had one Top 5 finish before 2007, but then he broke Manning's single-season TD pass record and had a fantasy impact that was roughly equivalent to getting to start an extra player in your lineup, a lofty perch reserved for stud RBs since Manning's record season. We have yet to see if Brady will level off closer to his historical level of production or that of his history-making campaign.
The Ranking
Brady has the most upside, but until his knee completely checks out in training camp, it's impossible to endorse him at the top of the tier, especially with all the rumors we heard about an infection and setbacks. Manning is the safest bet to play all 16 games, and he looked like his old self in the second of the season. Brees will likely throw the most passes for the most yards. This group is tight enough that I have them ranked consecutively in the overall rankings.
The Sweet Spot: Mid third round
There's a point around the 30th pick when when all of the surefire stud RBs and No. 1 WRs will be gone and you might be able to snag the third of these three QBs. In a 6 point per TD league, it could be closer to the early third. Waiting on QB is usually rewarded, but there's something to be said for having a QB that you can plug in and "fuggedaboutit". All of these QBs become steals in the fourth round and you shouldn't let them drop any farther than that.
Tier 2 - "Elite possibilities with warts"
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All of these QBs have demonstrated that they can be anchors for your team. Rodgers finished No. 2 last year in his first season as a starter. Warner finished No. 4 in 2008 after only looking up at Tom Brady in the second half of 2007. Rivers broke out for a No. 3 finish last year. McNabb finished No. 7 despite a benching and inconsistent play until the playoffs, and Romo produced just a hair off a Top 5 PPG clip last year after a No. 2 finish in 2007.
The Ranking
You have to put Rodgers at the top because his situation and supporting cast
is unchanged, and he should only improve in his second season as a starter.
In fact, with a repeat of a 2008, Rodgers will join the first tier of QBs (you
could argue he has already). The only real question is how much you can trust
a QB with only one year of starting experience under his belt. Warner has had
offseason hip surgery. He is old (38 in June) and has only played all 16 games
three times in his career (in his defense, he finished each one of those seasons
in the Super Bowl). McNabb is the best risk/reward pick. His past is filled
with exploded land mines like inconsistent play and season-ending injuries,
but he gained a possible stud left tackle and a speed demon at WR in April.
He looked like McNabb of old in the playoffs. Rivers comes fourth because it's
hard to expect a QB to throw 30+ TDs on only 30 attempts a game. He could easily
experience a Ben Roethlisberger-esque regression
to the mean this year, especially if the Chargers can stop the pass better with
the return of Shawne Merriman or establish a better running game. Romo is the
one everyone is leaving for dead. He lost TO and is gaining a reputation of
a QB that fades down the stretch.
The Sweet Spot: Mid-fifth / mid-sixth or later?
There will likely be a bit of a lull after the first tier QBs go off the board and a choice of Rodgers or Warner should follow about a round later. If your league lets Rodgers fall more than a round past the Tier 1 QBs, it's probably time to strike. Otherwise, waiting for the last QB of this tier is an excellent strategy, especially because they could plummet to the sixth round or later because waiting on QB is the preferred approach of a lot of fantasy GMs. If half of your leaguemates have made up their minds to be one of the last owners to fill QB, you could easily land Romo in the seventh round, when other teams are taking RBBC members or risk/reward WRs.
Tier 3 - "Studs if..."
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Cutler finished No. 5 last year, but he's moving to a new offense that won't be as pass happy. Plus, he'll have lower-quality targets than he had in Denver. He'll be a stud if the offense goes through him and young talents like Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and Greg Olsen emerge. Garrard suffered through a piecemeal offensive line and ragtag WR corps last year. He is not in a pass heavy scheme, nor is he the kind of QB that liable to pass for 300 yards in any given week. He'll be a stud if Torry Holt still has something left in the tank and if Garrard can vulture a few more rushing TDs away from MJD. Palmer is coming off a season cut short by an injury to his throwing elbow. Assuming the elbow is sound, he'll be a stud if Andre Smith is ready for prime time at left tackle as a rookie. Schaub faced yet another injury riddled season, but he produces like a top tier QB most of the time that he finishes the game. He'll be a stud if he can actually stay healthy.
The Ranking
Here's the group that your starter will come from if you decide to be patient at QB. Looks good, huh? Of course, if everyone is thinking the same thing, the bona fide studs and upside Tier 2 QBs will fall too far, so you always have to build some flexibility into your draft plan. Palmer has to be first because of his track record as a former No. 1 overall fantasy QB and the nice schedule quirk that all of his tough PIT/BAL matchups are done in Week 10. Cutler feels a bit like the frustrating McNabb of recent history - you might get good season-ending numbers, but week-to-week could be a rough ride. Even with a pass heavy game plan, Cutler still had trouble finishing drives last year, and he faces the Ravens in Week 15 and the Vikes in Week 16 - the latter matchup is at Soldier Field and could be a bad weather game. Schaub takes a hit because you'll have to draft your QB2 pretty quickly on his heels. Sage Rosenfels has been a decent handcuff in the past, but now he's in Minnesota and "Wrong Way" Orlovsky isn't as attractive an option if (when) Schaub gets hurt. Garrard is last only because of his inconsistent passing numbers, but he's a sneaky No. 1 because of his running ability and improved offensive line.
The Sweet Spot: Eighth round, then 10th round
The nice thing about taking your starter from this tier is that current ADP has Matt Ryan and Matt Cassel both going off the board as starters in a 12-team league, and Garrard falling to QB20. Of course that could change as the season approaches, but you very likely can get a QB from this tier at QB14 or QB15, no sweat. The best strategy would probably be to select the last of Palmer/Cutler/Schaub in the eighth and then wait a few rounds to get Garrard as your No. 2. Garrard/Schaub especially seems like a nice low cost combo that could easily produce on the level of the Tier 1 QBs if you play matchups well and Schaub doesn't get hurt mid-game this year.
Tier 4: "Matt Cubed"
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Cassel was every Brady owner's savior (and a few people who sniped him from them on the waiver wire), Ryan was Atlanta's savior, and Hasselbeck was nobody's savior in 2008. Cassel set the bar high for himself, but a lot of people are expecting a Derek Anderson-esque return to Earth this year. Ryan dropped off in December, and he faces the dreaded sophomore slump. None of us are really sure whether the wheels came off Hasselbeck for good in 2008. It's hard to expect any of these guys to produce better than low-end QB1s, and they all have a healthy amount of risk.
The Ranking
Ryan is a tireless worker who is as likely to make as big a step forward as some QBs have made backwards in their second year. While he gained Tony Gonzalez, it's still hard to go crazy for a QB without a deep arm on a team that seems to favor their marauding RB in the red zone. Cassel could surprise even though he lost Gonzalez because the Chiefs will likely be playing from behind, and Chan Gailey made a fantasy stud out of Tyler Thigpen last year. Still, he's the most likely of this group to be rendered worthless - if the transition to a non-McDaniels offense doesn't take, Cassel might even be replaced midseason. by Thigpen. Hasselbeck has only modest upside, but he gained T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and plays in the weakest division. He's probably the best to take as a No. 2 to a Cutler/Palmer/Schaub.
The Sweet Spot: Pass
There really isn't one. Ryan and Cassel are overvalued right now, and Hasselbeck is valued just about right. There's no reason to be gunning for QBs in this tier unless you wait on QB and miss out on Garrard as your QB2.
Tier 5: "Let's Make a Deal"
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This tier gives you choices like those faced by the contestants on the classic Monty Hall game show "Let's Make a Deal". You can have a boring safe choice (Roethlisberger, Flacco, or Manning) or what's behind curtain No. 3 (Edwards, Hill, or Orton). Manning and Roethlisberger are Super Bowl champions, and Flacco is an entrenched starter; but their upside is capped by conservative game plans on offense, fed by strong defenses. Edwards gained Terrell Owens, but he has only really been a game manager in his short career. Hill and Orton had stretches of solid production last year, but they aren't even assured of starting in Week 1 - possibly turning into zonks before the season even starts.
The Ranking
Roethlisberger is the QB you would be most comfortable with if you had to start him. He's one year removed from a prolific passing season in the red zone, and he's liable to run in a TD or two. Orton is my personal favorite between his talented young targets, offensive tackles, and offensive mind at head coach. The early schedule is also easy, setting him up to be excellent trade bait in September. Can TO make a fantasy QB? We'll see. Word of more no huddle in Buffalo is also promising for Edwards fantasy outlook, but he'll need to open up his game to take advantage of the opportunity. Eli was very ineffective without Plax and has made a habit of putting up solid year-end numbers with spotty week-to-week production. He was under 200 yards passing more than half the time last year and plays in a tough division. Hill is fifth even though he was a low-end QB1 once he took over last year. The 49ers seem hell-bent on giving Alex Smith another chance, and Hill is not a good practice player. If you draft him, you may have to hold him through another Smith crash-and-burn to recoup your value. I'm probably not giving Flacco enough credit for his solid midseason. stretch. Like Ryan, I worry a little about the league catching up with him, and like Roethlisberger, he's not really supposed to throw more than 25 passes when things go well.
The Sweet Spot: Late Rounds
Right now, Manning and Roethlisberger are going way too high because of their name recognition and sure-starter profile. Flacco, likewise, is just a pedestrian QB2 and not worth a pick at his current ADP. I think a sure-starting QB who is a mediocre fantasy producer is an overrated commodity, because they are merely good backup fantasy QBs. With the injury frequency and turnover at QB, you can usually find a QB on the waiver wire whose projected numbers for the upcoming week are close to (if not better than) a Manning or a Roethlisberger. Orton and Edwards could get picked around the 10th or 11th by optimistic owners, but it's just as likely that they tumble to the 13th round or even later. Hill can't get any respect - his average ADP is at the end of the 15th round in a 12-team league right now. The added bonus to taking Hill or Orton is that, as long as roster spots allow, you can take the QB battling them for the starting spot if it is still up in the air when you draft (assuming roster size allows for it). Edwards, Hill, and Orton are all nice QB2s to target if you have a Tier 1 starter because of the potential trade-bait factor.
Tier 6: "The Spot Starters"
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This tier is made up of assured starters, with the exception of Quinn. These players are middle-of-the-road fantasy options. You never know, you could end up with a QB who gets hot and has temporary trade value or earns your trust when your starter goes down or struggles. The 30+ crowd have had their moments in the past, but each has a big caveat - Bulger's fragile and in a rebuilding offense, Delhomme has been imploding too frequently, and Pennington may see even more snaps on the bench with the arrival of Pat White. The youngsters have hurdles in their development, and all will have some "learning experience" games which makes them risky starts. However, they could also "get it" and become a solid fantasy QB2. These are the QBs that you might drop when other starters go down and you see the potential for a Thigpen- or Cassel-type backup to emerge.
The Ranking
I like the trend Russell ended 2008 on (three straight multi-TD games), and he'll surely get to throw more this year. Pennington is probably the safest play in any given game, even though he is sometimes limited to the low 20s in attempts because of the game plan. It wasn't that long ago that Bulger was a Top 10 option. His odds of returning with that inexperienced WR corps are low, but he does play indoors in a weak division, and at least if he's bad, he'll be really bad and the kind of player you don't mind throwing back in the ocean. Having a few players you might want to cut early with no remorse is important because you might miss out on a Marques Colston if you are in love with everyone on your bench and they're all delayed gratification players that you need to wait on to see if you'll really get your return on investment. It's hard to have a good feeling about Delhomme after the way his season ended. He has potential to right the ship, but he had already had a couple of epic blowups in the regular season - the potential for a cripplingly bad performance is there every week with Delhomme. Campbell really seemed like he turned the corner early last year, but he went back into his shell as the season went on and didn't have a multi-TD pass game in the last three months of the season. Quinn still has to win the job, and Cleveland's offense looks like one of the worst in the league this year. Plus, Quinn's lack of experience is scary, even if it is his third year.
The Sweet Spot: None
If you draft a Tier 1 (or even Tier 2) QB, I completely understand passing on this group altogether if no QB2 values present themselves, opting for extra RB or WR depth instead. The shorter the benches, the more likely that you can get a starting QB off the waiver wire in your starter's bye week, and the more likely that you need that extra draft pick for an RB or WR you like.
Tier 7: "Don't Write Them Off"
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You shouldn't be drafting any of these guys, but you shouldn't assume that there's no way they'll end up on your team. They're all too risky to be worth a valuable draft pick, but one can envision scenarios where they have some worth as a fantasy backup. Collins is ultra conservative by design, but he and Mike Heimerdinger could open up the passing playbook, which will be even more likely if the defense doesn't help stake them to leads. Culpepper and Leftwich (assuming they win the starting jobs) are auditioning for the other 31 teams. Rosenfels lets it all hang out when he does play, even if the annual Brett Favre drama hangs over his situation. Sanchez is a rookie, but a few rookies have been trustworthy of a spot start in the last few years. Simms is coached by the guy who made Cassel a stud last year, and he's a toolsy QB, just like Cassel.
The Ranking
It doesn't really matter. You'll revise it immediately after Week 1, and that's when it's important. I like Culpepper and Leftwich as the best bets to actually have value early in the season, and I'll take a chance on Simms in a few leagues, if he can win the job.
The Sweet Spot: September Waiver Wire