Using SOS - Backing Up Your Stud Quarterback

  Posted 7/13 by Clayton Gray, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

If you spend a high pick on a quarterback, you most likely will want to start him every week. Of course, there is still the bye week that you'll need to cover, but you probably don't want to spend more than a single extra pick to back him up. In your search for a backup QB, three things are important: his cheapness on draft day, his ability to score, and his opponent on your stud QB's bye week. In this article, we'll use that criteria and search for the top backups for each of the high-priced QBs.

First, let's identify the so-called Stud QBs. For the purposes of this article, we'll consider any QB taken in the first five rounds to be a stud. While this isn't completely accurate, it's safe to assume that someone picking a QB that high will expect to start him every week. Here is the list of expensive QBs.

Now, let's look at each bye week and determine which of the remaining QBs have the best combination of scoring ability and ease of opponent.

Week Four Bye - Drew Brees and Vince Young

While Michael Vick (assuming he's on the field), Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Hasselbeck are nice options here, their ADPs really aren't appealing. However, Jake Delhomme and Rex Grossman are a notch below those first three QBs, but they will come fairly cheap on draft day. Following those two, we see another trio of QBs that cost more than we'd be willing to pay for a backup. Alex Smith is a bit cheaper, but he's going earlier than Delhomme and Grossman and doesn't offer their promised production. We have to go down to Tarvaris Jackson and Steve McNair to see true draft day bargains, but those two fail to inspire in week four.

Week Five Bye - Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb

Jon Kitna or Michael Vick would be nice, but they are far too expensive to be considered as a backup. J.P. Losman has a great deal of promise in week five. Chad Pennington is also a good option and can be taken a little later than Losman. Steve McNair and Trent Green are true bargains and should produce at a high level in week five.

Week Six Bye - Peyton Manning

Again, Michael Vick surfaces near the top of the list, but unless he drops in your draft, he is simply too expensive in the eighth round. Brett Favre seems out of place as a backup, but that is where he is being drafted this year and would be an excellent option in week six. Matt Hasselbeck would also be nice, but like Vick, he is too pricey. Byron Leftwich would be available much later in the draft and should be productive in week six. An intriguing option here is whoever is starting for the Chiefs. Neither Brodie Croyle nor Damon Huard are particularly appealing, but one of them should provide nice production in week six.

Week Nine Bye - Marc Bulger

Once again, we see Vick at the top of the list, but we'll dismiss him again. Matt Leinart is too expensive as well. Chad Pennington and J.P. Losman are promising bargains for week nine. Jay Cutler would be nice, but he'll be long gone before we'd be willing to take a backup QB. Byron Leftwich would be a great option week nine at a cheap price.

Week Ten Bye - Tom Brady

There are not a lot of good options here. Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Matt Leinart, Matt Hasselbeck, and Michael Vick would be quality backups, but they are obviously too pricey. That leaves Steve McNair and Byron Leftwich. McNair has much more week ten promise, so it would be wise to go after him a round early. If McNair is gone, Leftwich would be acceptable but not overly enticing.

Tables Key

• ADP is the average draft position in a 12-team league.
  
• WklyProj is the average weekly projections for the QBs on that team. For example, the 18.8 for Michael Vick is an average of the sum of the projected points for both Vick and Joey Harrington. The reason for the summation is that the projections are based on an assumption that the primary QB will miss some time over the course of the entire season. We are only concerned with a single game and expect the primary QB to play in that game.
  
• Wk# SOS is the SOS for that team's opponent for that week.
  
• Pred is the average of WklyProj and Wk# SOS.