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Strength of Schedule - Wide Receivers

  Corrected 7/2 by Clayton Gray, Exclusive to Footballguys.com


The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy points driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.


  • Removed bias of schedule
    Consider the following defenses: Defense A faced the top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.


  • Positional breakdown
    If you are looking for a RB, it’s much more relevant to see SOS data for RBs (rather than simply rushing data).


  • Comparison of 2007 schedule to 2006 schedule
    On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.

Explanation of USOS Tables

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The “TM” Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The “07sos” Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team’s opponents for this season.

The “%ch” Column

This is the percentage of change between the 2007 SOS and the 2006 SOS. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

The “EZ” Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The “Tuf” Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The “1st3” Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The “1st5” Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The “Bye” Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The “Lst5” Column

This is similar to the “1st5” column except that it is the SOS for the final five weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to end the season. This is a critical stretch of games as your fantasy playoffs take place here. Players with high values here are likely to perform very well during your fantasy playoffs.

Speaking of fantasy playoffs, here are three more narrowed time frames to choose from.

  • The “14-16” Column
    This is similar to "Lst5" except that it specifically covers weeks 14 through 16.
  • The “15-16” Column
    This is similar to "Lst5" except that it specifically covers weeks 15 and 16.
  • The “15-17” Column
    This is similar to "Lst5" except that it specifically covers weeks 15 through 17.

The "W1” through “W17” Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team’s opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The red values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Red was chosen because the team could heat up statistically. The blue values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Blue was chosen because the team could cool down statistically. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Red is a hot team with a good schedule
  • Blue is a cold team with a bad schedule

Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Wide Receivers

TM
07sos
%ch
EZ
Tuf
1st3
1st5
Bye
Lst5
14-16
15-16
15-17
Ari
20.5
15.6%
6
1
21.1
21.0
19.5
21.4
22.9
23.7
21.9
Atl
19.1
-5.8%
5
4
18.5
18.9
19.4
20.5
20.9
20.3
20.7
Bal
19.4
7.5%
4
3
20.4
20.0
19.5
18.8
17.5
19.6
20.8
Buf
19.1
10.4%
3
3
19.5
19.4
19.6
19.1
19.3
20.2
19.0
Car
20.0
7.9%
6
2
21.0
20.6
20.2
18.9
19.2
20.9
20.0
Chi
19.6
4.8%
6
4
18.3
18.7
19.0
21.2
21.2
21.2
21.5
Cin
20.0
19.1%
6
2
21.5
20.7
19.3
19.6
19.1
19.4
18.8
Cle
20.0
9.1%
6
3
19.7
20.0
20.4
19.2
18.2
18.3
18.5
Dal
18.9
4.4%
3
4
19.2
18.4
18.9
18.5
17.6
16.3
17.9
Den
18.0
3.4%
2
7
15.4
15.4
18.3
18.5
18.0
18.3
20.1
Det
19.3
4.0%
4
4
18.4
19.1
19.6
19.5
18.3
17.3
17.8
GB
19.1
-2.5%
3
4
18.1
19.5
20.4
18.6
17.6
19.0
19.3
Hou
17.7
1.0%
2
7
15.6
18.0
18.3
16.8
16.2
15.3
15.4
Ind
18.6
7.1%
3
6
20.3
19.2
17.0
18.5
19.1
17.1
17.9
Jac
18.2
1.3%
3
8
20.6
19.8
18.3
17.4
18.1
19.1
19.2
KC
17.9
2.4%
1
8
20.8
19.1
17.4
18.3
18.9
19.8
19.1
Mia
19.0
6.6%
4
4
19.8
18.7
18.1
19.2
19.0
20.6
20.7
Min
19.1
-2.6%
2
3
20.9
20.3
18.5
19.3
19.8
20.2
19.2
NE
18.7
-0.7%
4
5
17.0
18.3
18.9
20.5
19.6
17.7
18.7
NO
19.0
8.1%
4
5
17.0
16.8
19.3
20.4
21.5
19.6
19.6
NYG
19.5
3.6%
3
3
20.0
18.9
19.4
18.2
17.8
18.4
18.4
NYJ
19.1
13.7%
2
3
19.6
19.0
18.4
18.5
19.2
18.9
18.4
Oak
18.2
-1.3%
1
7
18.9
18.6
18.4
16.4
16.0
14.6
15.4
Phi
19.9
13.2%
5
1
19.9
20.1
20.5
20.0
21.0
21.2
19.4
Pit
19.4
13.7%
5
3
18.2
19.7
20.8
19.2
17.5
17.1
19.0
SD
18.1
4.6%
2
6
18.8
18.2
17.6
17.8
18.9
18.5
17.3
SF
21.1
6.1%
9
1
21.5
21.8
22.3
19.7
20.9
19.5
19.6
Sea
20.3
15.9%
6
2
20.5
20.7
20.2
20.7
20.5
19.5
21.4
StL
20.8
16.4%
8
1
17.7
19.2
21.6
22.1
21.0
21.0
21.5
TB
19.8
1.2%
7
4
20.7
18.3
17.9
20.3
21.2
22.1
20.1
Ten
17.7
0.1%
2
8
17.1
19.1
18.2
17.1
17.5
17.6
16.3
Was
19.2
2.6%
2
3
18.3
18.7
19.0
20.0
21.2
22.1
21.5

Week-By-Week Look

TM
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
Ari
18.9
21.5
23.0
23.3
18.5
16.0
21.1
-
18.1
Atl
23.7
15.7
16.0
19.3
19.6
20.5
22.0
-
18.9
Bal
20.8
17.9
22.6
19.8
18.9
18.5
15.8
-
23.3
Buf
17.0
23.3
18.3
17.9
20.3
-
23.0
17.9
20.8
Car
18.5
19.3
25.3
18.1
22.0
22.6
-
13.5
19.6
Chi
17.2
17.4
20.3
20.0
18.7
23.7
16.7
20.0
-
Cin
23.0
19.8
21.5
18.3
-
17.4
17.9
23.3
15.8
Cle
23.3
20.8
14.8
23.0
18.3
17.6
-
18.5
21.5
Dal
20.5
17.6
19.4
18.5
15.8
18.3
23.7
-
16.7
Den
15.8
14.8
15.7
13.5
17.2
-
23.3
18.7
20.0
Det
14.8
23.7
16.7
19.4
21.1
-
18.1
19.4
17.0
GB
16.7
20.5
17.2
23.7
19.4
21.1
-
17.0
17.4
Hou
17.4
16.0
13.5
25.3
17.6
15.7
19.6
17.2
14.8
Ind
22.0
19.6
19.3
17.0
18.1
-
15.7
16.0
18.3
Jac
19.6
25.3
17.0
-
17.4
19.3
13.5
18.1
22.0
KC
19.3
19.4
23.7
17.2
15.7
20.8
14.8
-
18.7
Mia
21.1
20.3
17.9
14.8
19.3
19.8
18.3
20.5
-
Min
25.3
20.0
17.4
18.7
-
19.4
20.3
16.7
17.2
NE
17.9
17.2
15.8
20.8
19.8
20.3
17.6
21.1
13.5
NO
13.5
18.1
19.6
-
16.0
21.5
25.3
18.9
15.7
NYG
20.3
18.7
21.1
16.7
17.9
25.3
18.9
17.6
-
NYJ
18.3
23.0
17.6
15.8
20.5
16.7
20.8
15.8
21.1
Oak
20.0
17.0
19.8
17.6
-
17.2
17.4
19.6
19.3
Phi
18.7
21.1
20.0
20.5
-
17.9
19.4
23.7
20.3
Pit
19.8
15.8
18.9
22.6
21.5
-
17.0
20.8
23.0
SD
19.4
18.3
18.7
17.4
17.0
14.8
-
19.3
23.7
SF
22.6
18.5
23.3
21.5
23.0
-
20.5
22.0
25.3
Sea
18.1
22.6
20.8
18.9
23.3
22.0
18.5
-
19.8
StL
16.0
18.9
18.1
20.3
22.6
23.0
21.5
19.8
-
TB
21.5
22.0
18.5
16.0
13.5
19.6
20.0
15.7
22.6
Ten
15.7
13.5
22.0
-
25.3
18.1
19.3
14.8
16.0
Was
17.6
16.7
20.5
-
20.0
18.7
22.6
18.3
17.9

TM
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
Ari
20.0
20.8
18.9
19.8
21.5
22.0
25.3
18.5
Atl
16.0
18.1
13.5
18.5
22.0
18.1
22.6
21.5
Bal
20.8
19.8
17.2
18.3
13.5
17.6
21.5
23.3
Buf
17.6
18.3
15.7
21.1
17.6
19.8
20.5
16.7
Car
25.3
18.7
22.0
18.9
15.7
21.5
20.3
18.1
Chi
14.8
21.5
17.0
20.5
21.1
23.7
18.7
22.0
Cin
23.0
22.6
19.6
23.3
18.5
18.9
19.8
17.6
Cle
23.3
23.0
19.3
22.6
17.9
15.8
20.8
18.9
Dal
20.5
21.1
17.9
18.7
20.0
16.7
16.0
21.1
Den
17.4
19.6
19.4
14.8
17.4
19.3
17.2
23.7
Det
22.6
20.5
18.7
23.7
20.3
17.2
17.4
18.7
GB
23.7
16.0
20.0
20.3
14.8
18.5
19.4
20.0
Hou
-
22.0
19.8
19.6
18.1
17.0
13.5
15.7
Ind
17.2
17.4
25.3
15.7
23.0
14.8
19.3
19.6
Jac
19.6
17.2
15.8
13.5
16.0
23.3
14.8
19.3
KC
17.0
13.5
14.8
17.2
17.0
19.6
20.0
17.9
Mia
15.8
16.7
23.3
17.9
15.8
23.0
18.3
20.8
Min
18.7
14.8
20.5
20.0
18.9
19.4
21.1
17.0
NE
-
15.8
16.7
23.0
23.3
17.9
17.6
20.5
NO
18.5
19.3
16.0
18.1
25.3
22.6
16.7
19.4
NYG
20.3
20.0
23.7
19.4
16.7
21.1
15.8
18.3
NYJ
-
23.3
20.3
17.6
19.8
18.3
19.6
17.4
Oak
19.4
23.7
17.4