It's hard to say that Vernon Davis came out of nowhere: the 6th pick in the 2006 draft, Davis (along with Kellen Winslow, Jr.) was drafted earlier than any tight end over the last 35 years. He had one of the all-time great performances at the NFL combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds, bench pressing 225 pounds 33 times, and having a 42" vertical leap, all while weighing 254 pounds. He could legitimately be considered the most freakishly athletic player in a league full of them. So it's not like no one knew that Vernon Davis had potential; it's just that no one expected him to realize so much of it in 2009.
Davis tied Antonio Gates' single-season touchdown record by a tight end last year, to go along with nearly 1,000 receiving yards. Davis had a typical rookie season for a tight end, which is to say, he didn't do much. As a second-year starter, though, he had over 500 yards in 14 games, good enough for a 12th-place fantasy finish. But his 358 yards and two TDs in 16 games in 2008 made many fantasy owners bitter; as a result, he had an ADP of TE19 entering last season. In fact, of the 30 tight ends to rank in the top 3 in a single season over the past 10 years, no one had as low an ADP in that season as Davis did. The table below shows each of the 30 tight ends' average draft position, along with how many games he played in, his fantasy rank, and his fantasy points per game, in both the season before and the season in question.
Player |
Year |
ADP |
Team |
Games N-1 |
Rnk N-1 |
FP/G N-1 |
Games N |
F Rnk N |
FP/G N |
Vernon Davis |
2009 |
19 |
SFO |
16 |
27 |
4.0 |
16 |
2 |
13.3 |
Marcus Pollard |
2001 |
17 |
IND |
16 |
12 |
4.8 |
16 |
2 |
9.1 |
Jason Witten |
2004 |
14 |
DAL |
15 |
21 |
3.9 |
16 |
3 |
11.1 |
Todd Heap |
2002 |
11 |
BAL |
12 |
33 |
2.9 |
16 |
1 |
9.8 |
Antonio Gates |
2004 |
10 |
SDG |
15 |
20 |
4.2 |
15 |
2 |
14.3 |
Jason Witten |
2007 |
9 |
DAL |
16 |
10 |
7.1 |
16 |
1 |
12.8 |
Freddie Jones |
2000 |
7 |
SDG |
16 |
5 |
6.7 |
16 |
3 |
8.9 |
Todd Heap |
2005 |
6 |
BAL |
6 |
24 |
-- |
16 |
2 |
10.3 |
Shannon Sharpe |
2003 |
6 |
DEN |
13 |
5 |
9.0 |
15 |
2 |
10.4 |
Dallas Clark |
2008 |
5 |
IND |
15 |
6 |
10.6 |
15 |
3 |
10.6 |
Alge Crumpler |
2006 |
5 |
ATL |
16 |
5 |
9.4 |
16 |
3 |
9.6 |
Jeremy Shockey |
2005 |
5 |
NYG |
15 |
7 |
8.9 |
15 |
3 |
10.9 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2006 |
4 |
KAN |
16 |
7 |
8.8 |
15 |
2 |
10.4 |
Dallas Clark |
2009 |
4 |
IND |
15 |
3 |
10.6 |
16 |
1 |
13.9 |
Jeremy Shockey |
2002 |
4 |
NYG |
NCAA |
NCAA |
NCAA |
15 |
3 |
9.2 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2008 |
4 |
KAN |
16 |
2 |
12.3 |
16 |
1 |
13.4 |
Todd Heap |
2003 |
3 |
BAL |
16 |
1 |
9.8 |
16 |
3 |
7.4 |
Shannon Sharpe |
2000 |
3 |
BAL |
5 |
32 |
-- |
16 |
2 |
9.0 |
Antonio Gates |
2009 |
2 |
SDG |
16 |
4 |
9.3 |
16 |
3 |
12.7 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2007 |
2 |
KAN |
15 |
2 |
10.4 |
16 |
2 |
12.3 |
Antonio Gates |
2005 |
2 |
SDG |
15 |
2 |
14.3 |
15 |
1 |
14.3 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2003 |
2 |
KAN |
16 |
2 |
9.4 |
16 |
1 |
11.7 |
Shannon Sharpe |
2001 |
2 |
BAL |
16 |
2 |
9.0 |
16 |
3 |
8.1 |
Antonio Gates |
2006 |
1 |
SDG |
15 |
1 |
14.3 |
16 |
1 |
11.4 |
Jason Witten |
2008 |
1 |
DAL |
16 |
1 |
12.8 |
16 |
2 |
10.1 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2004 |
1 |
KAN |
16 |
1 |
11.7 |
16 |
1 |
13.7 |
Antonio Gates |
2007 |
1 |
SDG |
16 |
1 |
11.4 |
16 |
3 |
11.9 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2001 |
1 |
KAN |
16 |
1 |
13.8 |
16 |
1 |
10.4 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2000 |
1 |
KAN |
15 |
1 |
12.6 |
16 |
1 |
13.8 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2002 |
1 |
KAN |
16 |
1 |
10.4 |
16 |
2 |
9.4 |
What's interesting is that seventy percent of the tight ends that ended the season in the top-three had a pre-season ADP inside the top five. For the most part, great tight ends don't usually come out of nowhere like they do at other positions. With Davis, the question was never the talent but whether the production would ever meet the potential. He answered that question in a big way in 2009.
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