Matt Forte has really struggled around the goal line in his young NFL career. How bad has he been? And what's a good way to grade goal-line running backs? Here's what I did to come up with a rough approximation of goal-line success.
I looked at all rushes by running backs from inside the five yard line over the last five seasons. If the runner gained a first down or a touchdown, I marked that play as a success. If it was 3rd or 4th down, and the running back did not gain a first down or a touchdown, that play was recorded as a failure. On 2nd down plays that didn't result in a new set of downs or six points, I still counted the play as a success if the rusher gained more than half of the yards "to go" for that set of downs. So on 2nd and 4 or 5, he would need 3 yards; on 2nd and 2 or 3, he would need 2 yards to get that play marked as a "success." On 1st down plays that didn't gain enough yardage for a first down/touchdown, I counted the play as a success if the rusher got halfway towards the goal line. So from the 2-yard-line, only one yard was needed; from the three or four, he would need at least two yards; from the 5-yard-line, only rushes that brought his team to the 2-yard-line or closer counted as success.
Every success was worth one point, every failure was worth zero. Over the past five seasons, 40 different running backs have had at least 25 carries from inside the 5-yard-line. Forte's success rate of 39% places him among the bottom three in that group:
Players |
Carries |
Successes |
Ratio |
Corey Dillon |
25 |
20 |
80.0% |
DeAngelo Williams |
29 |
20 |
69.0% |
Tim Hightower |
30 |
20 |
66.7% |
LenDale White |
38 |
25 |
65.8% |
Michael Turner |
35 |
23 |
65.7% |
Shaun Alexander |
43 |
28 |
65.1% |
Adrian Peterson |
42 |
27 |
64.3% |
Mike Bell |
30 |
19 |
63.3% |
Ryan Grant |
35 |
22 |
62.9% |
T.J. Duckett |
31 |
19 |
61.3% |
Laurence Maroney |
33 |
20 |
60.6% |
Deuce McAllister |
40 |
24 |
60.0% |
Rudi Johnson |
37 |
22 |
59.5% |
Ronnie Brown |
50 |
29 |
58.0% |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
58 |
33 |
56.9% |
Marion Barber |
76 |
43 |
56.6% |
Edgerrin James |
55 |
31 |
56.4% |
Dominic Rhodes |
32 |
18 |
56.3% |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
105 |
59 |
56.2% |
LaMont Jordan |
31 |
17 |
54.8% |
Larry Johnson |
75 |
41 |
54.7% |
Brandon Jacobs |
72 |
39 |
54.2% |
Willie Parker |
39 |
21 |
53.8% |
Mike Anderson |
26 |
14 |
53.8% |
Clinton Portis |
64 |
34 |
53.1% |
Steven Jackson |
59 |
30 |
50.8% |
Brian Westbrook |
28 |
14 |
50.0% |
Reuben Droughns |
26 |
13 |
50.0% |
Willis McGahee |
65 |
32 |
49.2% |
Chester Taylor |
41 |
20 |
48.8% |
Frank Gore |
42 |
20 |
47.6% |
Joseph Addai |
57 |
27 |
47.4% |
Jonathan Stewart |
26 |
12 |
46.2% |
Jamal Lewis |
72 |
33 |
45.8% |
Kevin Jones |
42 |
19 |
45.2% |
Julius Jones |
27 |
12 |
44.4% |
Thomas Jones |
78 |
33 |
42.3% |
Matt Forte |
33 |
13 |
39.4% |
Warrick Dunn |
28 |
11 |
39.3% |
DeShaun Foster |
34 |
8 |
23.5% |
Further, Forte's performance in 2009 was particularly ugly; he was successful on only five of his 18 carries. Among the 49 running backs with at least 15 carries from inside the five in any season in the past five years, only Thomas Jones in 2007 had a worse ratio:
Player |
Year |
Rushes |
Successes |
Ratio |
Rudi Johnson |
2005 |
16 |
12 |
75.0% |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
2006 |
23 |
17 |
73.9% |
LenDale White |
2008 |
21 |
15 |
71.4% |
Larry Johnson |
2006 |
24 |
17 |
70.8% |
Shaun Alexander |
2005 |
27 |
19 |
70.4% |
Brandon Jacobs |
2008 |
20 |
14 |
70.0% |
Michael Turner |
2008 |
19 |
13 |
68.4% |
Stephen Davis |
2005 |
19 |
13 |
68.4% |
Adrian Peterson |
2009 |
30 |
20 |
66.7% |
Jerome Bettis |
2005 |
18 |
12 |
66.7% |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
2005 |
21 |
14 |
66.7% |
Clinton Portis |
2007 |
17 |
11 |
64.7% |
Mike Bell |
2006 |
17 |
11 |
64.7% |
Edgerrin James |
2005 |
25 |
16 |
64.0% |
Jamal Lewis |
2006 |
16 |
10 |
62.5% |
Willie Parker |
2006 |
21 |
13 |
61.9% |
Tim Hightower |
2008 |
18 |
11 |
61.1% |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
2009 |
20 |
12 |
60.0% |
Marion Barber |
2006 |
25 |
15 |
60.0% |
Chester Taylor |
2006 |
15 |
9 |
60.0% |
Deuce McAllister |
2006 |
21 |
12 |
57.1% |
Ronnie Brown |
2009 |
16 |
9 |
56.3% |
Brandon Jacobs |
2005 |
16 |
9 |
56.3% |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
2008 |
16 |
9 |
56.3% |
LaMont Jordan |
2005 |
16 |
9 |
56.3% |
Mike Anderson |
2005 |
25 |
14 |
56.0% |
Jamal Lewis |
2007 |
22 |
12 |
54.5% |
Larry Johnson |
2005 |
24 |
13 |
54.2% |
Joseph Addai |
2009 |
15 |
8 |
53.3% |
Matt Forte |
2008 |
15 |
8 |
53.3% |
Steven Jackson |
2006 |
19 |
10 |
52.6% |
Curtis Martin |
2005 |
19 |
10 |
52.6% |
Thomas Jones |
2009 |
20 |
10 |
50.0% |
Marion Barber |
2009 |
16 |
8 |
50.0% |
Kevin Jones |
2007 |
16 |
8 |
50.0% |
Joseph Addai |
2007 |
18 |
8 |
44.4% |
Clinton Portis |
2005 |
16 |
7 |
43.8% |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
2009 |
28 |
12 |
42.9% |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
2007 |
17 |
7 |
41.2% |
Joseph Addai |
2006 |
17 |
7 |
41.2% |
Thomas Jones |
2008 |
18 |
7 |
38.9% |
Brandon Jacobs |
2009 |
19 |
7 |
36.8% |
Larry Johnson |
2008 |
18 |
6 |
33.3% |
Jonathan Stewart |
2009 |
16 |
5 |
31.3% |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
2007 |
16 |
5 |
31.3% |
Willis McGahee |
2005 |
21 |
6 |
28.6% |
Jamal Lewis |
2008 |
18 |
5 |
27.8% |
Matt Forte |
2009 |
18 |
5 |
27.8% |
Thomas Jones |
2007 |
15 |
3 |
20.0% |
What does this mean for 2010? Chester Taylor doesn't have a particularly success ratio around the goal line, either. In 2009, he was successful on only one of seven carries from inside the five; the last of three consecutive runs at the 1-yard-line against the Rams in week five. And, of course, it's worth remembering that Jones followed up his awful 2007 campaign around the goal line with 13 rushing touchdowns. But If Mike Martz was looking for a reason to avoid calling running plays near the goal line, I think he won't have trouble finding one.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to [email protected].