Let's put all the silly stuff aside about Chad Ochocinco. Here's a quick review of his career:
Year |
Rec |
RecYds |
RecTDs |
FPs |
Rk |
2001 |
28 |
329 |
1 |
53 |
77 |
2002 |
69 |
1166 |
5 |
181 |
19 |
2003 |
90 |
1355 |
10 |
241 |
3 |
2004 |
95 |
1274 |
9 |
233 |
8 |
2005 |
97 |
1432 |
9 |
249 |
3 |
2006 |
87 |
1369 |
7 |
225 |
6 |
2007 |
93 |
1440 |
8 |
243 |
7 |
2008 |
53 |
540 |
4 |
105 |
48 |
2009 |
72 |
1047 |
9 |
198 |
14 |
Like most receivers, Ochocinco (then Johnson) was a nonfactor as a rookie. He broke out as a second-year player before becoming elite in 2003. Starting then, he led the AFC in receiving yards in each of the ensuing four seasons and made five straight Pro Bowls. Over a five-year stretch, Ochocinco didn't miss a single game and averaged 92 receptions, 1374 yards and 8.6 touchdowns. He scored at least 225 FP each season and finished between WR3 and WR8 every year. In 2008, his numbers fell off the map, but he had two excuses: not only did Ochocinco battle injuries but he lost his quarterback, Carson Palmer, for most of the season. Last season, though, Ochocinco's numbers were still off his 2003-2007 pace. But I'm not sure you can blame him for that.
Take a look at Ochocinco's production as a percentage of all receiving fantasy points by the Bengals. I'm defining the Bengals' team fantasy points for receivers to be the sum of the team's receptions (divided by two), receiving yards (divided by 10) and receiving touchdowns (times 6). Last year, Ochocinco was responsible for 34% of his team's receiving fantasy points. That's right in line with what he was doing during his prime.
Year |
Rec |
Yards |
TDs |
TFPs |
Chad |
Perc |
2001 |
322 |
3291 |
12 |
562 |
53 |
9.4% |
2002 |
350 |
3732 |
17 |
650 |
181 |
27.9% |
2003 |
324 |
3591 |
26 |
677 |
241 |
35.5% |
2004 |
324 |
3520 |
23 |
652 |
233 |
35.7% |
2005 |
362 |
3935 |
32 |
767 |
249 |
32.5% |
2006 |
327 |
4066 |
28 |
738 |
225 |
30.5% |
2007 |
373 |
4131 |
26 |
756 |
243 |
32.2% |
2008 |
303 |
2677 |
11 |
485 |
105 |
21.5% |
2009 |
286 |
3134 |
21 |
582 |
198 |
34.0% |
And, in fact, his 34% ratio was was tops in the league last season.
Receiver |
Team |
Perc |
PlyrFPs |
TmFPs |
Chad Ochocinco |
CIN |
34.0% |
197.9 |
582.4 |
Brandon Marshall |
DEN |
33.3% |
226.4 |
679.0 |
Steve Smith |
CAR |
32.7% |
174.9 |
535.0 |
Roddy White |
ATL |
32.4% |
224.0 |
691.7 |
Jerricho Cotchery |
NYJ |
31.0% |
135.3 |
436.6 |
Andre Johnson |
HOU |
30.7% |
262.4 |
853.8 |
Miles Austin |
DAL |
30.6% |
238.3 |
777.8 |
Terrell Owens |
BUF |
30.4% |
151.8 |
499.9 |
Randy Moss |
NWE |
30.1% |
245.9 |
817.0 |
Larry Fitzgerald |
ARI |
30.0% |
235.7 |
785.0 |
DeSean Jackson |
PHI |
28.9% |
221.9 |
767.5 |
Steve Smith |
NYG |
28.6% |
217.5 |
761.6 |
Calvin Johnson |
DET |
28.1% |
169.2 |
601.1 |
Derrick Mason |
BAL |
27.9% |
181.5 |
650.2 |
Reggie Wayne |
IND |
27.1% |
234.4 |
865.5 |
Sidney Rice |
MIN |
26.5% |
221.2 |
833.3 |
Mike Sims-Walker |
JAX |
26.4% |
160.4 |
607.4 |
Vincent Jackson |
SDG |
25.9% |
205.8 |
793.6 |
Hines Ward |
PIT |
25.2% |
200.2 |
793.1 |
Mohamed Massaquoi |
CLE |
24.3% |
97.1 |
399.5 |
Marques Colston |
NOR |
23.4% |
197.0 |
842.0 |
Donnie Avery |
STL |
22.5% |
115.4 |
513.6 |
Donald Driver |
GNB |
22.1% |
178.4 |
807.7 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh |
SEA |
21.9% |
148.6 |
678.4 |
Nate Washington |
TEN |
21.8% |
117.9 |
541.9 |
Santana Moss |
WAS |
21.6% |
144.0 |
665.7 |
Davone Bess |
MIA |
21.3% |
126.9 |
595.1 |
Louis Murphy |
OAK |
20.3% |
96.2 |
475.0 |
Dwayne Bowe |
KAN |
18.5% |
106.4 |
574.8 |
Antonio Bryant |
TAM |
18.4% |
103.5 |
561.6 |
Devin Hester |
CHI |
17.5% |
122.1 |
699.2 |
Josh Morgan |
SFO |
16.5% |
102.8 |
623.3 |
Whether or not Ochocinco returns to an elite level may have less to do with his skills (he's now 32 years old) and more to do with the Bengals' pass blocking, playcalling, and and Carson Palmer. Cincinnati has overhauled their receiving corp this offseason; they signed two wide receivers (Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones) and drafted one of last season's most productive college players (WR Jordan Shipley, Texas) along with the class's best tight end (Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma). The Bengals gave Carson Palmer a serious amount of ammunition this offseason. It's possible that those guys will eat into the production that Ochocinco had last year, but I think the more likely result is that they'll increase the whole pie, with Ochocinco still getting over 30% of the production. That makes him an undervalued fantasy player.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to [email protected].

