Ahmad Bradshaw is a trendy sleeper pick, and it's easy to see why: he has a career yards per carry average of 5.23, and last season he rushed for seven touchdowns on only 163 carries. Just as importantly, Brandon Jacobs' performance fell off dramatically last year, and a further decline could lead to starter-level touches for Bradshaw in 2010. Combined with his presumed great productivity per touch, and more touches would make Bradshaw a fantasy starter in every league this season.

But whether he gets more carries or not, Bradshaw is far from a lock to keep up his great yards per carry average (hence the word 'presumed'). That probably seems counter-intuitive to some, because Bradshaw has looked so good so far in his career. And while it's possible that Bradshaw really is an elite running back capable of huge yards per carry averages, the more likely scenario is that he's simply played above his head on a limited number of carries early in his career.

Think I'm a Bradshaw hater? Certainly not. That's just what the data tell me. From 1970 to 2008, there were 25 running backs to meet the following three conditions in the first three seasons of their careers:

1. Average at least 4.70 yards per carry
2. Have between 200 and 600 carries
3. Play in at least 30 games

Those 25 running backs averaged 357 carries in their first three seasons, played in 40.5 games and gained 1,778 yards, for a 4.98 YPC average. Bradshaw has 253 carries over 42 games, and his 1,323 rushing yards translates to a 5.23 YPC average. So Bradshaw has been a bit more productive per touch but did so over a much smaller sample; it's not a perfect comparison, but I think it's close enough. The problem, for Bradshaw fans? In year four, those running backs averaged 156 carries for 663 yards, only a 4.24 YPC average. Among the 20 running backs with at least 50 carries in that fourth season, ten of them averaged 4.24 YPC or fewer, while eight of them had a sub-4.00 yards per carry average.

It's easy to think if Bradshaw has done it so far, he'll continue to keep doing it. But you could have said the same thing about Jerious Norwood last year, too. Thirty years ago, if you were playing fantasy football, you might have thought the same thing about Ted McKnight. Even Brian Westbrook, who obviously has had a successful career, had a setback in year four after a productive first three seasons.

I'm not necessarily down on Bradshaw: there's nothing stopping Bradshaw from being the next Charlie Garner, either. I just think it's wise to take a step back and realize that that when any running back has a high yards per carry average -- especially someone who wasn't a high draft pick and has only 253 career carries -- he's more likely to regress to the mean than to maintain his great pace. Over the past eight seasons, the average carry by NFL running backs has gone for 4.20 yards. Very few running backs can consistently average north of 4.5 YPC, and 253 carries just isn't a strong enough track record for me to think Bradshaw is one of those guys.

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