Roundtable - June Edition
Posted 6/16 by Staff, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
Welcome to the first offseason edition of the 2009 Footballguys Roundtable. Feel free to eavesdrop as various staff members share their views on a range of topics in discussion format. This week, they touch on the following:
- Rookie RBs
- Rookie WRs
- The Jay Cutler Trade
- Some RBBC Situations
Rookie RBs
Will Knowshon Moreno be a 300+ carry back right out of the gate? Denver's rushing offense was surprisingly effective last year despite landing seven RBs on IR. But with a new offensive system being installed, what are Moreno's prospects for fantasy stardom as a rookie?
MATT WALDMAN: I think Moreno will get fewer than 300 carries since the Broncos defense is still a mess. But I think he'll come close: 240-270 carries seems realistic because the AFC West isn't a strong division and the Broncos offensive line is a quality unit. Since Moreno has the skills to block, catch, and run with maturity for a rookie, I believe he'll be able to average somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.4 YPC. His receiving skills should put him into low-end RB1 territory for fantasy owners.
JEFF TEFERTILLER: I think Moreno will have a strong season. He is in a great situation. The other backs on the Broncos' roster are merely fodder. He is a better receiver than many expect. I would say he has a 50-50 shot at being a Top 15 RB this season with an outside shot at Top 10.
MARK WIMER: I've moved Moreno him up my RB board significantly in the last month or so due to a couple of factors: (1) the release of J.J. Arrington opened up more third-down opportunities for Moreno, who the coaching staff claims is a legitimate three-down back; and (2) the strong positive opinions of my colleagues Matt Waldman and Cecil Lammey have convinced me that he has a shot at three-down presence starting from day one. All that said, I don't think he's a fantasy RB1 during his first campaign. The Broncos' defense is suspect, and the passing game is likely to be unsettled no matter which QB ends up winning the starting job. A whole new offense is being installed, and Brandon Marshall's hip injury is keeping him from necessary practice reps during the offseason. I'd be willing to take a shot on him as my RB2 if I went WR/RB/RB in the first 3 rounds, due to draft position, etc.
JEFF PASQUINO: Three hundred carries is a bit much to ask. Moreno will be more of the centerpiece of the offense, but I would still expect both Buckhalter and Jordan to contribute. The NFL is becoming more about RBBC for multiple reasons, including preserving a running back's durability for his career. Moreno could become a feature back but I would expect Denver to try to keep him under 20 carries a game -- something more like 15 per contest with four to five targets on average. He is still likely to be the top rookie RB drafted and has a strong likelihood of being a Top 25 fantasy back.
It looks like Chris Wells could have the featured role in one of the NFL's most prolific offenses. The Cardinals had an insanely high pass-run ratio last season, but with Wells on board, could they become a more balanced offense? What's the likelihood he'll get 250+ carries as a rookie -- and how effective do you think he'll be in the NFL?
WALDMAN: Wells is very effective behind a gap blocking scheme. This requires a big, strong offensive line that can focus on one area of the defense and blow open a hole. Seattle was famous for this with Steven Hutchinson and Walter Jones making life good for Shaun Alexander. Arizona was originally a gap-blocking unit, but they made some adjustments for Edgerrin James because the former Colt was a great runner in a zone-blocking scheme, which relies on the RB to be creative, quick, patient, and decisive. I believe the Cardinals offensive line wasn't a good athletic match for this scheme, and Arizona drafted Wells because he's a more natural fit. This means that Wells has a nice opportunity to be productive immediately. However, the Cardinals offense will still run through the trio of Warner, Fitzgerald, and Boldin. Wells will have some nice moments if he can remain healthy, but I think his ceiling will be 240 carries (15 per game). Wells has the balance, patience, and acceleration to be an excellent back behind an excellent gap-blocking line. But he can wind up a mediocre back if forced to be a zone runner or if he lacks a quality line. I haven't even addressed the psychoanalysis so many other people want to perform on him in regards to his toughness. I'll leave that to the others.
TEFERTILLER: I cannot see Wells getting enough carries. I expect him to disappoint fantasy owners this season. He had trouble making it through a college season healthy and now the long NFL season will be too much. The Arizona offensive line was not opening holes consistently last season. I see too many reasons not to like Wells in Arizona in 2009.
WIMER: I think that Arizona will remain a pass-first offense in most games, although Wells may grind it out in a few second-half blowout-type situations. I give him an outside shot at 1,000 combined yards, with 800-900 yards rushing (5-6 rushing TDs) and about 150 yards receiving (0-1 receiving TDs). He does have upside potential from there, but it really depends on how NFL-ready he is from day one of training camp. That remains to be seen. If he looks impressive in training camp, I'll upgrade his projections. So in my book, Wells is a RB3/Flex option for 2009, pending a better look at his performance at this level.
PASQUINO: Tim Hightower will have more to say (and contribute) than many may expect. Wells will certainly get his touches, but Hightower will get about a third of the workload, at worst. Arizona may want to run the ball more, but the true nature of the offense is that it is still based on Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. If Warner gets hurt and Leinart struggles, the dynamic may change, but I still expect over 55% pass plays and likely towards 60% for Arizona.
How will the workload be divided between Joseph Addai and Donald Brown?
TEFERTILLER: There will be enough carries for both players. Addai's lack of stamina and conditioning, paired with his injury history, make Brown a good pick this year. The Colt offense will provide the upside. Addai should see more action early in the season as Brown learns the pass protection and the finer points of the Colt offense. But, I would expect Brown's role to increase as the season progresses.
WALDMAN: Both are better backs than credited and I think a healthy Addai can make this a 50-50 split. The problem is that the phrase "healthy Addai" is approaching oxymoron status. I think it's Brown's job to win and he has the work ethic to do it.
WIMER: The recent news regarding Joseph Addai's arthroscopic knee surgery to remove loose bodies casts some doubt on his status for 2009. Supposedly, Addai will be 100% by training camp, but early June knee surgeries are not encouraging signs for a player as injury-plagued as this guy. The Colts knew what they were doing when they selected Brown, and he seems to be positioned to swiftly earn the top spot in the Colts' two-man RBBC. I think Brown will get almost twice as many touches as Addai this season. Brown is an outstanding RB3 option for fantasy owners, in my opinion, with a higher upside than most of the other rookies. Addai had over 1,400 combined yards in his rookie season ('06) while taking over for the departed Edgerrin James and supplanting veteran Dominic Rhodes. We could see this pattern repeated during 2009 if everything breaks right for Brown.
PASQUINO: I think that Donald Brown will end the year as the lead tailback for the Colts, so the only question is when that transition will occur. This is one of the key battles to watch in training camp this summer but I'd lean towards Addai getting more work in September and Brown getting more in December. Both will see time and this could finish as a 50-50 split over the course of the season.
Which RB has better physical tools?
WALDMAN: Brown has better physical tools, but Addai is a very good blocker and receiver. Brown should get more touches in certain situations and he could be a nice fourth-quarter back when the team has the lead, but Addai will likely see more time right now when the team is in a close game or trailing.
PASQUINO: I've always believed that Addai was an average back in a good situation and not much more. A competent Dominic Rhodes was able to step in and produce at similar levels, and when the offense struggled last year Addai could not help his team. Bill Polian spent a first-rounder on Donald Brown for a reason, and that's enough to tell me that Addai's future in Indianapolis may be limited.
Will seniority matter -- i.e., does Addai get the first crack at the majority of the touches by virtue of being a veteran?
WALDMAN: Not in Indy. Bill Polian is about playing the best talent. If Brown can absorb the offense, he'll have earned it.
WIMER: I don't think Addai's "seniority" will mean a fig: this organization isn't inclined to behave like Carolina.
Thomas Jones may be nearing the end of his stint with the Jets. He has two years left on his contract but a $3 million roster bonus due in 2010 may spur his release after this season. Is Shonn Greene the future in New York? And if so, will we get a good glimpse of the future in 2009, or will the rookie be kept mostly under wraps this season?
WALDMAN: It's up to the QB play. If the Jets QBs can keep the games close, Greene can be an excellent closer. He's a Gary Brown-Jerome Bettis kind of player with a big body, great balance, and good, quick feet. The problem is he is an inconsistent receiver and an absolute liability as a blocker. If the Jets have to abandon their game plan due to QB mistakes, Greene won't see the field as much as they hope. I think Leon Washington is probably going to be more productive because he's a factor in the passing game while Green isn't. The Jets defense should be good, but it won't matter if the offense can generate first downs, and I'm worried that Sanchez will struggle as a rookie and Clemens isn't the long-term answer.
TEFERTILLER: I cannot imagine that Greene will see many touches unless Jones is traded or injured. I do like his long-term outlook. But the 2009 season might be one without many touches.
WIMER: I think that Thomas Jones, the AFC rushing champ last year with 290/1312/13, will retain his top job in New York this season. The selection of Shonn Greene sent a clear message, and in return Jones has returned to some OTAs and quit agitating about his contract status. It seems to me the new coaching staff has softened their stance towards Jones - on May 27th Rex Ryan stated that the team would "ground and pound" the ball this year and that Jones could be the team's workhorse. In the end, Greene isn't a polished RB prospect and would likely benefit from a year on the bench behind Jones, especially since Mark Sanchez may be working through his NFL learning curve at some point this year and the Jets will need some sort of credible rushing attack to lessen the pressure on Sanchez once his is under center.
PASQUINO: Shonn Greene is the future, and how high that future is will be determined this year. The Jets traded nearly their entire Day 2 of the draft to move up for Greene and they just love his skill-set. New York may hand him the reins much sooner than many expect, and the real threat to his workload is Leon Washington, who is threatening a holdout. He's currently rumored to be asking for MJD-type money, which is ludicrous. If Washington strikes a deal and starts to show off his abilities in training camp it may wind up being a two-back system again, but we've seen that the lead back (Jones in 2008) can be a very rewarding fantasy option.
Brian Westbrook just had surgery that could keep him limited until around the start of the regular season. Is LeSean McCoy's value mainly as a handcuff to Westbrook, or is there a good enough chance that he'll see major playing time this season that even non-Westbrook owners should be targeting him in the mid-late rounds (e.g., 10th or 11th round of a twelve-team draft)?
WALDMAN: McCoy is an important handcuff with upside because Westbrook may need until October to regain his football conditioning. I'm still skeptical that McCoy has learned the offensive system as quickly as coach Reid proclaims. I'd wait until we see him execute in the preseason and scrimmages. Still, when it's all said and done, if the Eagles are forced to use McCoy's raw talent, he'll produce.
TEFERTILLER: There will be a role for McCoy this season. It should not be much unless Westbrook is injured, but the veteran's recent surgery could pave the way. I would definitely target McCoy in redraft leagues. He has huge upside in the high-octane Eagle offense. Booker has little upside and Weaver is a bit player. McCoy will get a shot if something were to happen to Westbrook.
WIMER: Westbrook's status is murky thanks to the most recent surgery on his ankle. (He also had offseason knee surgery which was reportedly successful in removing "loose bodies" and alleviating the pain in his troublesome knee.) When a RB starts having multiple procedures on his legs during a single offseason, a red flag goes up for me. Just based on likely opportunity, I think McCoy will have a chance to show what he can do during September. If Westbrook returns to full health by regular season, then I think he'll lead this attack again, but it would be no surprise to see him limited to start the season. I think the perceived value of McCoy as a handcuff to Westbrook would be reason enough to swipe him from the Westbrook owner in your league's draft and then hold McCoy for ransom - or to own the lead back in Philly yourself, depending on how the injury situation plays itself out. I'm probably going to avoid Westbrook unless he's a ridiculous value in a particular draft this season, simply because an owner may need to expend two more picks (McCoy; Lorenzo Booker) during the draft to cover all his bases in the Philly backfield.
PASQUINO: McCoy is the future for the Eagles, but the odds of him being a feature back in 2009 are not nearly as high as many are thinking today. I think Westbrook will be fine for Week 1, but let's play Devil's advocate and say that he will be out - even for an extended period of time. The Philadelphia offense is very complicated and often keeps rookies and other first-year players off the field. Every new back for the Eagles in recent memory struggled (Tony Hunt, Lorenzo Booker) and even Westbrook did not see significant playing time as a rookie. The Eagles' entire offense is currently run through Westbrook from both a rushing and a passing perspective, so to think that one player of any caliber could step in and single-handedly replace a Pro Bowl player is ridiculous. Even if Westbrook gets hurt, it will not be any particular back that replaces him - it will be a full-blown committee.
Rashad Jennings fell pretty far in the draft before landing on a team that, for the past few seasons, has preferred an RBBC approach. With Fred Taylor gone, will Maurice Jones-Drew take over as the full-time workhorse, or could Jennings work into the rotation in a substantial way as a rookie?
WALDMAN: I really like what I see from Jennings, but I think his rookie ceiling is as the No. 2 RB who gives MJD a breather. Only an injury will give Jennings an opportunity. He still needs to work on pass blocking and adjusting to the speed of the game. He'll be a bigger factor in the future, but not in 2009 if MJD is healthy.
TEFERTILLER: I do not see a big role for Jennings this season. The jump from small school football to the NFL is huge. He will be a bystander unless forced into some action due to an injury to Jones-Drew.
WIMER: I think the Jaguars plan to feed Jones-Drew the ball early and often this year. He's going to be their lead back by far, and David Garrard is no slouch as a ballcarrier, either. Jennings, if he sees any action at all, could end up the third most prolific rusher on the team behind Jones-Drew and Garrard (and Chauncey Washington has still to give up his position as #2 back on the depth chart, by the way).
PASQUINO: I still contend that Jennings is a strong sleeper for 2009. Jones-Drew was at his best when Fred Taylor gave him regular breathers. MJD will still likely be the back that gets most of the work, but I do not believe that Jack Del Rio will put his best player at risk by overusing him every game. MJD may have 20-25 touches some games, but I would expect another back to step up and take on 10-12 touches to alleviate some pressure. So that means Jennings has to contend only with Greg Jones, who likely will be more of a fullback, and Chauncey Washington. My money would be on Jennings and once he starts to show off in preseason games it will be hard to keep the Jaguars from finding ways to get the ball in his hands. Investing a late fantasy pick in Jennings could result in 80% of MJD's production should Jones-Drew get hurt, which is more likely than many would care to admit.
Rookie WRs
Six wide receivers were drafted in the first round this year (compared to none last year). Moreover, with what Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, and Donnie Avery accomplished a season ago, could we be seeing a trend towards seeing more production from WRs earlier in their careers?
WALDMAN: No. Since 1958, only 41 rookie receivers have scores 120 fantasy points, with 75 reaching the 100-point mark. If you look at the number of rookies hitting those marks by decade, there's no significant upturn to indicate a trend.
PASQUINO: I agree with Matt. The game is far too complicated for a rookie to just step in and produce on a consistent basis. The game is faster (all the players are top notch caliber, unlike in college), and the season is longer. Couple this with a short timeframe to learn (April to August goes fast) and it makes a ton of sense why first-year WRs struggle.
Of all the WRs selected in this year's draft, who is the most NFL-ready? That is, who will be able to make the quickest and smoothest transition from the college game to the pro game?
WALDMAN: Ignoring surrounding NFL talent, Michael Crabtree is the most NFL-ready because he understands how to get open in tight coverage and he fights for the football with the subtlety of a veteran. Considering surrounding NFL talent, Percy Harvin is a better route runner than he's been portrayed. The Florida offense created false perceptions about his skills as a receiver. I know we like to call him a player without a position at Footballguys, but I think it's more accurate to say he's a player who can be effective in multiple positions. He doesn't run the football like a WR (i.e., Peter Warrick); he runs more like a RB. But he also has good enough hands and route-running skills to win the No. 2 WR job in Minnesota. Hakeem Nicks is a similar receiver to Michael Crabtree: big, physical, and great hands and ball skills in traffic. I believe he'll split time with Domenik Hixon to begin the year and demonstrate enough to become a reliable option for Eli Manning down the stretch. The surprise player in my opinion, is Buccaneer Sammie Stroughter. I had him rated as a borderline primary receiver candidate his junior year at Oregon State. Injuries and clinical depression resulting from mourning family members and friends passing in a short period were obstacles he had to confront. He did a great job overcoming them, but the stigma the NFL has with mental health issues caused Stroughter's draft grade to plummet. Right now, he's reportedly looking like the most impressive receiver in camp. If Michael Clayton can't regain his form, I could see Stroughter being a surprise starter - ala Eddie Royal in '08. Stroughter has the same kind of quickness, hands, route skills, and punt return running skill after the catch.
JEFF HASELEY: I really like Brian Robiskie's chances to make an impact with Cleveland this year. He's a solid route-runner with great hands and good knowledge of the game. In my opinion, one of the biggest factors in succeeding as a rookie WR is the ability to grasp the offense and adapt to prostyle corners. Players who are students of the game, who pay attention to detail, are the ones to watch. In my opinion that's Robiskie. His father (Terry Robiskie) is a WR coach in the NFL. I also like Juaquin Iglesias in Chicago. He's in a great position to produce out of the gate and if he impresses in training camp and preseason, he could find himself in the starting lineup. Another WR who would not surprise me if he emerges as a rookie threat is Jacksonville's fifth round pick Jarett Dillard. Dillard, like Robiskie, has talent and a head on his shoulders, but his lack of great speed and size could keep him from getting a shot to contribute out of the gate. Is he ready to be an NFL receiver though, with some minor coaching and film study? Yes. As for Michael Crabtree, I have always been a fan of his sheer talent, but while talent might get you into the league, it doesn't necessarily always mean success. See Mike Williams or Charles Rogers. That's not to say he won't have success. I can see Crabtree being very productive this year on talent alone. The only question I have is his maturity and how he might adapt if he finds certain tasks difficult at the next level.
PASQUINO: Brian Robiskie is commonly cited as the most ready to contribute out of the gate. He ran crisp routes in a prostyle offense at Ohio State and he'll have little competition to start in wide receiver-starved Cleveland. Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin will each have their moments in 2009 but Crabtree has not been able to practice so far and Maclin has to beat out Kevin Curtis to see significant playing time. The only slight on Robiskie that I see is that there is no clear-cut QB at this point for him to practice with and get used to for Week 1. The competition between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson may hurt Robiskie's progress.
Of the six WRs selected in the first round, who do you think is most likely to struggle out of the gate, requiring a year or two of seasoning before he's ready to make an impact?
WALDMAN: Darrius Heyward-Bey will struggle because the Raiders owner expects way too much from him. He still needs to learn how to run strong routes and catch the ball consistently with his hands, and he's never been a consistently productive player. Landing in Oakland doesn't help his cause. Jeremy Maclin is a fine athlete, but he has nowhere the route-running skill as DeSean Jackson. Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb will be able to exploit his strengths in situational play, but I don't see him beating out Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, or even Jason Avant when the dust settles. He'll rotate in the slot and likely have packages for him, but some will be anticipating him as a one-two punch with Jackson, too soon.
PASQUINO: Like Matt said, Darrius Heyward-Bey is a bust waiting to happen. JaMarcus Russell is struggling (and that may be putting it mildly) in Oakland and he was the wideout most likely to be a project out of Round 1. DHB has fantastic speed, but his hands are questionable and the only route he seemed to know and love while at Maryland was called "Go deep."
Who landed in the best team situation? (And how do you measure that, for fantasy purposes? Is it more important to land on a team with a solid QB and productive passing offense, or is it more important to land on a team with few receiving weapons already in place, making it easier to land a featured role more quickly?)
WALDMAN: For fantasy purposes, I define a good team situation as one where the player not only has an opportunity to see significant looks, but also has the surrounding talent to make an impact without too much pressure. For instance, Michael Crabtree is a fine prospect but if the QBs can't perform well and there isn't enough skill, health, or consistency at receiver to make the offense dynamic, then Crabtree will have to face bracketed coverage and he's not good enough to beat double-teams as a rookie. On the other hand, Percy Harvin has the benefit of a great running game and offensive line, a teammate in Berrian who can stretch the field, and an offense that wants to use him in the slot, outside, and in the backfield. Opposing defenses won't be able to take Harvin away with bracketed coverage without paying a steep price elsewhere. Although the QB play in Minnesota hasn't been great, this situation is a good example of how a WR should be able to thrive with average QBs but a strong scheme and great players at other positions. Jeremy Maclin has a strong QB and good offensive system, but he doesn't run routes as well as Harvin and he's not as versatile. That's not to say Maclin isn't versatile, it's just that Harvin's ability to run like a running back yet run intermediate routes like a wide receiver is rare. Maclin can run end-arounds and screens very well. Ask him to run a square-in or a 15-yard curl and he's going to look like a rookie. This is a good illustration of why evaluating situation is important, but ultimately it's a combination of a player's skills and where he lands in the draft.
PASQUINO: A rookie wide receiver's situation comes down to four points for me - quarterback, depth chart, offensive system, and veteran wideouts on the roster. To excel you need a good QB - which sounds obvious and should. If you don't have someone who will throw to you and give you opportunities, there's no chance you will be productive. Of the seven players that we are discussing I would say that Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks and to a degree Kenny Britt have good QB options. Cleveland (Robiskie) and Minnesota (Harvin) have unsettled QB situations while Oakland's remains questionable. San Francisco is a sleeper with Shaun Hill, whom I like quite a bit, but Alex Smith is still trying to steal that job.
Next is the depth chart. How far down is a rookie on the depth chart, and who is keeping him off of the field? Heyward-Bey, Crabtree, Nicks, Britt and Robiskie should challenge right away for the second WR option at worst for each of their teams. Maclin is primed to see playing time in Philadelphia if Kevin Curtis is not 100% and Percy Harvin will push Sidney Rice to start, so all seven seem to have a good chance to get on the field frequently in 2009.
Third is the offensive system. Who throws early and often, and who would rather run the ball except for third and long? Kenny Britt might struggle here in Tennessee in a run-first, play-defense-second environment. Cleveland and the Giants may want to run more than pass this year, which could hurt Robiskie and Nicks, respectively. Philadelphia will throw a lot, and Oakland still wants to throw it deep often enough to get Heyward-Bey plenty of big play targets. San Francisco is still an unknown.
Last for me is the veteran WRs on the roster. Is there anyone who can (a) serve as a mentor or (b) be a top wideout on the team to take pressure off of the rookie? This is a big problem in Oakland, Tennessee and for the Giants, but a blessing in disguise for Cleveland (Braylon Edwards), San Francisco (Isaac Bruce) and Philadelphia (Curtis). San Francisco doesn't have a top notch target to take pressure off of Crabtree in Year 1 (unlike Edwards and the DeSean Jackson-Kevin Curtis combo in Philly) so that may deter Crabtree's production.
So to boil it all down, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, and Brian Robiskie appear to be in the best overall situations in 2009. Percy Harvin appears to be in the worst.
The Jay Cutler Trade
The Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Bears for Kyle Orton, the #18 pick this season (LB Robert Ayers), a third-round pick this season (subsequently traded to the Steelers), and a first-round pick next year.
Looking toward the long term, was there a winner and loser in this trade, or did both teams benefit?
WALDMAN: At this point, I think the long-term edge has to go to the Bears. When you look at pro football offenses in perspective, teams are more successful with a strong quarterback and so-so receivers than they are with great receivers and a so-so quarterback. Kyle Orton and Chris Simms are average NFL quarterbacks at best. Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, and John Elway are among the quarterbacks who ran successful offenses for perennial contenders without the benefit of great receivers for the majority of their careers.
WIMER: One thing about this trade that stands out for me is that Cutler is a franchise-level QB. When a player is capable of going over 4500 yards passing in an NFL season, as Cutler did last year, that player is an elite talent. So on the face of it, trading away Cutler for Orton is a negative for the Broncos.
However, we don't know what the 2010 first round pick will produce, and we have yet to see Ayers play at this level. If both of those picks pan out, then 3 years from now the Broncos' move may seem smarter than it does today. But I'm a bird-in-the-hand type of guy - as of today, I think this trade was not the best outcome for the Broncos.
PASQUINO: Right now the winner of this deal has to go to whoever got the best player, and that's clearly the Bears. Kyle Orton may be getting lip service as the QB Denver wanted, but that was never their plan until the entire Matt Cassel debacle by Josh McDaniels.
Denver did a very nice job of holding Cutler hostage - a first round pick in 2009 and 2010 plus a third and Orton is great value - but the NFL is short on franchise quarterbacks. Few teams relied on the passing game more than Denver last season and given their woes on defense and how their offense was set up coming off of 2009, it was quite shocking to see them move Cutler. This probably explains the Knowshon Moreno pick - the team needed to move from a heavy passing attack through Cutler to a team that lacks a franchise QB and needs strength in the backfield.
TEFERTILLER: I think the Broncos came ahead on the strength of picking up two first-round picks and a third in addition to Orton. The two first round picks will help them fix their gaping holes on defense. The Bears also benefit as they get a large upgrade at quarterback. Cutler's arm strength will be able to open up the offense in ways Orton and company could not.
Does Cutler have the maturity and leadership ability to lead the Bears deep into the playoffs?
WALDMAN: I think the Jay Cutler maturity issues are overblown. Was he wrong for reacting the way he did in Denver? Yes. Should he be aware of the fact that for as long as he is an NFL quarterback his personal habits and social life be under a microscope and analyzed to death? Yes. Has he done anything that makes him a cancer in a locker room? No.
I expect Cutler to do what most human beings do, learn from the experience and move forward. Cutler has demonstrated that he can make the plays necessary to win games. Part of leadership is making plays when the defense has made the right call, but you out-execute them. Cutler is one of the handful of quarterbacks who can take an offense on his shoulders and make a difference. Even so, leadership at the quarterback position is somewhat of a paradox because I'd argue it is both overrated and underrated. It's overrated because the very best QBs can only "carry a team on his shoulders" for a few plays in a series and he still needs the execution of at least 21 others to win the game. It's underrated because more than any other player, the QB can make a difference in putting his teammates in position to make winning plays.
WIMER: I think Cutler has what it takes to win in the NFL, and he should do well in Chicago (although he isn't likely to cross 4,000 yards passing with the current squad - maybe in a few years when the team has upgraded their receivers' corps).
PASQUINO: Cutler has stated that he realizes that a team needs balance to succeed in the NFL and to get to (and win in) the postseason, so I think he understands his new role in Chicago. The Bears won't be changing their overall philosophy of defense first and running game second. The Bears haven't had a QB rack up over 3,200 yards since Erik Kramer, and he posted the only season above that plateau in Chicago in the last 20 years. Sure he is likely to be an improvement for Chicago at the position, but he's not going to turn Devin Hester and Earl Bennett into Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.
TEFERTILLER: I think Cutler can help the Bears improve. I do not think he has proven enough for us to assume he can or cannot take his team to the Super Bowl. He will definitely be under the microscope this season. In addition, I do not think we give Cutler enough credit for helping to develop Marshall, Royal, and Scheffler. He could have a huge impact on Hester and Olsen this season.
Will the Broncos be able to recover quickly from losing their star QB, or are they doomed to take a few steps backward as they try to find a new offensive identity?
WALDMAN: Kyle Orton and Chris Simms lack Cutler's arm strength and ability to thread the needle, as well as his ability to extend the pocket and make difficult throws on the run. Without Cutler, Denver's offense will need to be that much more precise to succeed week after week. Orton and Simms will struggle to extend drives, put points on the board, and allow their own defense to continue with their game plan. I think the difference could be two to three games. This makes Denver a team that will struggle to make the playoffs - meanwhile, I think Chicago should be a wild card contender immediately.
WIMER: The AFC West is a pretty soft division with fairly bad defenses, so it's anybody's division to win as far as I can tell. I'd be surprised to see more than one AFC West team in the playoffs this year. With such soft defenses on the schedule, I think the Denver QB will have a good shot at a productive fantasy season, but I don't expect to see 4500+ passing yards from anybody in Denver this year. Around 3500 yards is more likely, in my opinion.
TEFERTILLER: No, I see the Broncos having a bad season. I like Orton, but it is asking too much for him to lead an offense with a rookie RB and no defense. It could be 2011 or after before the Broncos are competitive for the AFC Championship.
Some RBBC Situations
We discussed the Colts earlier when we talked about
rookie RBs. In addition to the Colts, it seems like there may be an unusually
high number of RBBC situations this year. I know people say that every year,
but has it become a reality?
PASQUINO: The NFL is a copycat league, and with so many teams having success
with using two (or three) backs in their respective offenses it has to be expected
that more teams will head in that direction. It makes sense for many reasons.
Running backs break down, and putting all the workload on one guy not only increases
the likelihood of your top back getting hurt, it also keeps the rest of the
rushers on the bench too much to be comfortable if and when that injury occurs.
Splitting time between multiple backs extends both of their careers and keeps
both backs effective and fresh for the entire game. This approach also helps
mask teams that lack that true top workhorse back, which many believe is a dying
breed.
WALDMAN: I think sharp fantasy owners can find a lot of value in situations others will avoid due to RBBC concerns. If you're looking to push the envelope, taking a calculated risk on backs like Julius Jones, Ray Rice, Fred Taylor, or potentially Laurence Maroney could provide you quality starters relatively late in your draft. If you don't mind high-risk strategies, you could target premier WRs, a TE, and QB before loading up on high-risk, high-upside RBs in the middle of your draft, although that's not a strategy for the timid.
Let's look at a number of situations that many fantasy owners may have trouble projecting.
We'll start with Oakland. Will they take an RBBC approach this season, or does that suggestion give Darren McFadden too little credit?
MAURILE TREMBLAY: I like McFadden a lot this season, but that's not to say that Justin Fargas and Michael Bush won't also have decent-sized roles. The Raiders are going to run the ball a lot this season, and there's no reason for them not to use all three of those backs. They are all very talented runners. So in terms of the percentage of touches, the Raiders' situation may look like a committee. But in absolute numbers, I think McFadden will an awful lot of work; I wouldn't downgrade him on RBBC concerns.
PASQUINO: Darren McFadden has workhorse back potential, but Michael Bush's performance last December forces Oakland to keep him in the mix. Add in Justin Fargas and the rumored mess that is JaMarcus Russell and you may be looking at a team that runs the ball 600 times this season and hopes to win with rushing and defense, which should have Al Davis rolling over in his grave. (Wait, what? Really? Could have fooled me.)
New England seems like a complete mess at RB, at least from a fantasy perspective. Is Fred Taylor up for 200 carries at this stage in his career? And what do we make of Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Laurence Maroney?
WALDMAN: New England is tricky because we simply do not know what Belichick will do. Maroney has the best combo of youth and talent, but he's obviously fallen out of good graces. That doesn't mean that he can't work his way back into the fold with an excellent preseason, but the odds probably aren't worth taking a big risk to acquire Maroney until very late in a deep draft. Taylor still has the skills to be a 1200-yard rusher on a team like New England. I think he has just as much, if not more, gas in the tank as Corey Dillon did when he came from Cincinnati. Morris and Faulk are clearly Belichick guys - versatile, smart, overachievers who keep the depth chart honest because they push more talented guys who might think they can get by on talent and slack on the work ethic. I like Taylor as the safe bet because you can get him as a No. 4 RB in many drafts but he still has the ability to produce like a No. 2 RB in fantasy leagues. I think his legs are relatively fresh for him to be the bell cow for a year, especially if he looks great to begin the season.
HASELEY: I agree with Matt. The biggest mess, in my opinion is New England, but should we even bother with them anyway? The last time we had any clue about the running game in New England was 2004 when Corey Dillon ran for 1600 yards with 12 rushing TDs. The most yards by any Patriots RB since then was 835 yards by Laurence Maroney in 2007. In short - should we even concern ourselves with New England? Four different RBs had three TDs last year and two had five. And that was without the high-flying Tom Brady at QB. Chances are that two players could be big fantasy producers at some point during the season, but who and during what stretch? Is it worth it to gamble a late round selection on a Pats RB? Possibly. If it were me, I'd grab Kevin Faulk or Sammy Morris in the later rounds depending on which one was still available. If the timing was right, I'd look to grab BenJarvus Green-Ellis as a waiver wire pick up around week four or five.
PASQUINO: Yikes. This looks like Fred Taylor vs. Lawrence Maroney, with both Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris sprinkled in for good measure. If you forced me to take one and only one, I would take Maroney if only for his upside potential and the possibility that he'll able to be a workhorse back. That's more an indictment of the other three than an endorsement of Maroney, but that would be my pick. Overall I would tend to run away from this mess.
Baltimore seems almost equally messy. Le'Ron McClain looked great last year, but Ray Rice and Willis McGahee appear to be the top contenders to start a halfback this season.
WALDMAN: I think the Ravens situation is more clear-cut. McClain has reported 20 pounds heavier and they already told him he'd be the FB. Yes, he was a surprise last year, but the numbers make him look like a better RB talent than he really is. McGahee is gone next year as long as Rice fulfills expectations and Rice came to camp ready to make good, adding muscle to his core. The core area of the body is where you generate your explosiveness. Rice was a workhorse at Rutgers and I think instinctively he knows what it takes to be a quality, full-time back in the NFL. I don't think he was quite there physically as a rookie. He showed flashes, but lacked the stamina and explosiveness to consistently get the job done. This year I think if Rice shows he's the best back, McGahee will be insurance. Yes, McGahee is in the final year of his contract and there's talk about "running him into the ground," but I think the real decision will be based on who is going to give the Ravens the best chance to win. McGahee is steady, but he really never became the great back some thought. You can even tell by the way Harbaugh answers questions in camp that McGahee isn't a player he trusts. When asked about McGahee's ankle, his response was basically "I can't speak to that." Most coaches know exactly what to say about a player's injury, even if it's just filler to say "I'm not going to elaborate." Harbaugh's response is about a step away from Jack Del Rio's blasting of John Henderson's shoulder that "forced" him out of drills.
PASQUINO: I've been a big fan of Ray Rice since watching him at Rutgers, but even I have to temper my expectations for 2009. Yes, he's likely going to take over the lead role at some point this year. Yes, McClain is heavier and is moving back (seemingly begrudgingly) to fullback. The wildcard, as usual, is Willis McGahee. McGahee could certainly take 30-35% of the workload for Baltimore, which is a big load based on 2008 numbers. Baltimore led the league by a good margin with 592 team carries, 502 combined by the trio of McClain (232), McGahee (170) and Rice (107). Ideally when both McGahee and Rice are healthy, the Ravens would use both and contrast some of their styles but more importantly use 2009 as a transitional year from McGahee to Rice as their primary back. This is McGahee's last season with Baltimore and they will likely use him as much as they can, which McGahee should embrace as he's going to be auditioning for his next team all year long. The news of Rice adding back weight is also good (both he and Brian Leonard shed weight prior to their respective combines to get faster, but the lost weight affected them more than they expected).
Rice could certainly lead the Ravens in carries but that doesn't mean that McGahee won't be involved as well. I'd also expect the rushing attempts to decrease as Baltimore puts more trust in Joe Flacco with his first year of experience under his belt and about a 55-35-10 split between Rice-McGahee-McClain (and 10% may be generous for McClain). Taking the rushing carries from 31-32 a game down to an average in the 25-27 per game range would put Rice at about 13-15 a game, McGahee about 8-10 and McClain from 2-5 a game.
In Buffalo, Marshawn Lynch will miss the first few games due to suspension. Will that give Fred Jackson a foothold in the offense.
WALDMAN: The Bills will allow Lynch to step right in if he's in good enough condition to play immediately, and to me that's the biggest "if." I think he may need a week or two to really get rolling. That means I wouldn't count on him until at least October. Jackson and Rhodes are capable, but they lack Lynch's after-contact skills. From a talent standpoint, I'm not worried about this situation at all if I'm a Lynch owner. My only concern is whether Lynch has the maturity to conduct himself like a professional and law-abiding adult.
PASQUINO: Fred Jackson is going to get the audition he's always wanted, and he'll have the benefit of having the first three games with Terrell Owens in the offense. The Bills will get a feel in August for what the first string will look like but Lynch will have to wait his turn. While I'm not predicting Jackson to steal too much work from Lynch, there are tons of examples where the second string back gets his shot and shows everyone how explosive that he can be when put in a starter role. Consider that the first two games are against New England and Tampa Bay and he may not put up very impressive numbers. It also cannot be overlooked that a veteran RBBC back was added in Dominic Rhodes who may have a say in the depth chart before September starts.
What's the outlook in Carolina this season?
PASQUINO: This is a perfect example of a team using two backs effectively and getting better production from both as a result. DeAngelo Williams vs. Jonathan Stewart is a lively debate, but the Panthers themselves have their cake and eat it too by using both backs every game. Sure they will split the work - but who cares? Both are Top 25 RBs so it really doesn't matter who gets what role. Each is productive in his own right.
New Orleans is an interesting situation. Pierre Thomas has looked great in limited action, but he's had fewer than 200 career carries. And Reggie Bush is always going to play a prominent role.
PASQUINO: I believe that Pierre Thomas will get at least 60% of the Saints' carries, but he may not get 60% of the RB touches. Reggie Bush is most effective on the edges and as a receiver, so I expect New Orleans to pound Pierre between the tackles and use Bush as more of a wideout or screen-play-option back. Each could get 1,000 from scrimmage, but Bush will have more as a receiver than as a rusher.
How about in Pittsburgh?
PASQUINO: Committee in Steel City for sure gets my vote. Willie Parker has been labeled as ineffective in the Red Zone and has been consistently yanked in short yardage and third down situations. Between Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore there is enough uncertainty here to question the workload breakdown for Pittsburgh, so this has to be a situation that fantasy players watch diligently in August. Should Mendenhall be the choice inside the twenties for this season it could be a "Carolina Lite" scenario where Parker gets lots of yards and Mendenhall punches it over the goal line.
In Tampa, is Ward ready for a featured role, or will he split carries with Graham?
PASQUINO: I am not writing off Earnest Graham at all. Most everyone will be focused on the free agent acquisition of Derrick Ward and expect him to put up 1,000 yards and lead the team in touches, but Graham is no slouch either. I could see a scenario where both push the 1,000 total yard mark. The quarterback situation is uncertain this year (likely Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich) but either should rely on these two backs for both carries and also receptions. I think this could definitely be close to a 50-50 split.
Is there a case for adding Dallas to the RBBC list?
CLAYTON GRAY: Dallas will certainly be a RBBC this year. Marion Barber is obviously the lead back, but Felix Jones and Tashard Choice are too talented to keep on the bench. Jones specifically will be used in the Razorback formation (Dallas' version of the Wildcat). Just as he did in college, Jones will be split wide and come in motion for possible hand-offs in an effort to utilize his speed on the edge. That speed makes it possible for Jones to score any time he touches the ball. With Terrell Owens gone, the Cowboys will look for Jones (among others) to fill that playmaking void.
WALDMAN: Adding to Clayton's point, the Cowboy's offensive talent looks similar to the Giants lineup the year they won the Super Bowl. They had three quality backs, a TE capable of elite production and a No. 2 TE capable of producing when called upon, along with one playmaker at WR. I think Tony Romo has proven he's a good improviser at the QB position, but that doesn't mean Dallas wants to live and die by his arm. I believe they want to make life easier for Romo by leaning more on the run and tiring out the opposing defense and use a little more play action to get Witten open down the seams or hit Williams on the deep perimeter. Barber has shown he's a great closer and red zone option. I think opposing defenses will hate to see a fresh-legged Barber in the fourth quarter after they've rotated Tashard Choice and Felix Jones with him during the first three. Jones is far too talented to limit to a handful of touches per game. He may not have Darren McFadden's rare acceleration and long-speed, but he was a far more instinctive runner between the tackles in college. I think he has Clinton Portis-like potential. I think he will see 10-12 carries per game with the goal of at least 15 touches per contest. Choice demonstrated what he could do, but I think Dallas will be fine with using him as the guy that gives Barber a breather in the middle of the game. If Dallas is far ahead in a contest, Choice will get Barber's carries. If the contest is close, it's Barber all the way. I think the split will be 45/40/15, Barber/Jones/Choice.
Will Jamal Lewis be the feature back in Cleveland, or could that evolve into an RBBC situation?
WALDMAN: I might add Cleveland to the list. Jerome Harrison was very Priest Holmes-like at Washington State. I don't think he'll ever be the greatest inside runner that ever lived, but I think he's capable of being better than people expected. The fact that Mangini is seriously considering him for touches on 1st and 2nd downs is a pretty big statement. It's conceivable Lewis and Harrison will become more of a committee than some might expect.
Great stuff, guys. Thanks for kicking us off the right way with some great discussion in our first Roundtable feature of the year. We'll meet back here again next month with a new slate of topics.
