Examining Rookie Performance - TEs

  Posted 6/26 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

No position is more difficult to transition well from college to the NFL than the tight end position. The intricacies of learning the blocking schemes, pass routes, blitz pickup and hot routes are tough for the first year players to know and understand. The new breed of tight end entering the NFL is the converted wide receivers that have bulked up to play tight end in college. Usually, these players play in collegiate offenses that do not ask them to block on a consistent basis. When they are drafted and finally line up against professional defenders, then asked to block, the newcomers are overpowered. They were big and strong enough at the NCAA level, but not now. So, the one thing the rookie tight ends need to do is hit the weight room. If a tight end cannot block, he can only be used on obvious passing downs, which severely limits any fantasy potential.

After watching few rookie tight ends live up to expectations their rookie year, I charted all first year players at the position to see how many, if any, lived up to their ADP. I looked at all players drafted dating back to the 2002 NFL Draft class. The rankings used were the Footballguys season-ending rankings. The ADP used was from redrafts on MFL. Also, if a player is being drafted, then gets hurt during the offseason or preseason, then he is still used in the study. Further, if a player does not score one point, he is assigned the same ranking as the other players that year that have no fantasy points. Below is a list of all tight ends drafted in the NFL Draft that had a reasonable ADP. This use of a reasonable ADP will only use a sensible number for normal fantasy redrafts. There is no use listing a player with an ADP of TE50 when few leagues would have a need to draft five tight ends.

Very few rookie tight ends produce better fantasy numbers than others at the same ADP. Jeremy Shockey is the lone success story where the risk paid off. He and Randy McMichael, both in 2002, are the only two to finish in the Top 10 of the position. The interesting thing about McMichael is that he was drafted in the 4th round in the NFL Draft from Georgia. Very few 4th round tight ends get the opportunity and produce well their first season in the league. Fantasy owners that drafted the former Bulldog as a TE2 were rewarded. Heath Miller was the only other rookie to finish as a fantasy TE1. This led many to assume that it was normal to think rookie tight ends could do well. The following year Vernon Davis was drafted as TE13 and his production failed to equal the draft slot used. The same thing happened last year with Greg Olsen. He was drafted as the fifteenth tight end off the board even though he was backing up veteran Desmond Clark. I also wanted to know if any year had a draft class that outperformed their ADP. Here are the results:

Well, my next thought was whether it mattered where a rookie was drafted in the draft. How can we know which rookies at the position have the best hopes of producing fantasy points their first season. Here are the results (with the ADP numbers listed on the left and the final rankings on right):

Surprisingly, no group did much better than any other. The one factor that does matter is situation. The players that did well early on are ones that played on teams that offered opportunity. Now, let's examine the 2008 rookie draft class. The following are the rookie tight ends drafted this past April:

Only two of these 2008 rookie tight ends are draftable in most redraft leagues. With leagues having roster size in the 16-20 player range, fantasy owners would carry two tight ends maximum on the roster.

• Dustin Keller was drafted in April's draft by the New York Jets out of Purdue. Keller is a player that can line up at tight end or split out wide. His weakness is at blocking. With Chris Baker and Bubba Franks already on the roster, it will be tough for the first year player to make an impact. In addition, the Jets do not utilize the tight end position enough to support multiple players at the position. At present, the former Boilermaker is being drafted as TE18. This is way too high. He is being taken in front of LJ Smith (and his two to 10 finishes in 2005 and 2006) and Randy McMichael. The one thing that could catapult Keller into fantasy viability is further implosion by Baker pining for a new contract. Additionally, Franks is not a pillar of health.


• John Carlson was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks to be the heir apparent at the tight end position. Seattle has a history, in the Holmgren era, of producing fantasy points at the tight end position. Even troubled Jerramy Stevens, who did not catch the ball well, was able to be a viable fantasy tight end. Currently, the rookie from Notre Dame is being drafted at TE21. He is being taken ahead of Desmond Clark, Ben Utecht, and Marcedes Lewis. At this point of the draft, Carlson is great value. Given how short the Seahawks are at the wide receiver position, there will be opportunity. Carlson was drafted after an aging Pollard failed to be productive. Seattle really wants, and needs, John Carlson to succeed.

The next group of rookie tight ends each has an ADP in the range to be a TE3 on fantasy teams. Only those in favorable situations should be considered until injury makes them relevant.

• The Washington Redskins drafted Fred Davis in April. He was successful at USC as a receiver. Davis is not a great blocker. The issue with Davis is that he backs up Chris Cooley, a promising young tight end himself. Unless Cooley is injured, Davis is a player to watch and let another owner take a chance on. He currently has an ADP of TE35.


• Martin Rucker is an athletic tight end from Missouri. The Cleveland Browns drafted him as insurance for the oft-injured Kellen Winslow who also has made it known he wants a new contract. The Browns' backup tight end has been Steve Heiden, who has battled injuries. Rucker is a tight end who will struggle to pick up the pro game. He played in a spread offense in Missouri and was more of a receiver than a blocker. At present, Martin Rucker is being drafted as TE28. He is only worth a pick up if Winslow's knee is slow to heal and Heiden is still out.


• Jacob Tamme broke a lot of records at Kentucky. The former wideout was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts to be a relative clone of Dallas Clark. Since the Colts do not use the tight ends to block much, Tamme's transition should be quicker. He is a bright guy and could surprise if given an opportunity. The departure of Ben Utecht to the Bengals could help Tamme see the field relatively quickly. With Clark's history of concussions, the rookie from Kentucky could flourish in his first year. Tamme is being drafted as TE32 at the present time. Jacob Tamme is a guy to watch if anything happens to Dallas Clark.


• Jermichael Finley was successful at the University of Texas. Finley is an athletic tight end that has the ability to make plays. He is another who will be slow getting onto the field. The Green Bay Packer version of the West Coast Offense is complicated. In addition, the team has two talented tight ends already in the fold. Donald Lee came on strong last year and was rewarded with a new contract. Also, the Packers have Tony Humphrey who was injured last offseason. Finley is another one to let someone else take the chance on. He is being drafted as TE33.


• Brad Cottam is a good blocking tight end from the University of Tennessee. He is also pretty good in the passing game. The Kansas City Chiefs drafted the former Volunteer with the departure of Kris Wilson. Unless Tony Gonzalez is injured, Cottam will strictly be a blocking tight end. He is a player that could surprise if given an opportunity. Cottam currently has an ADP of TE36.


• Gary Barnidge is another former wideout who was used to take advantage of matchups in a collegiate spread offense. The Carolina Panthers drafted Barnidge to compete with incumbent Jeff King. It is doubtful he gets much opportunity as a rookie. Barnidge needs to add weight and work on his blocking skills. He has an ADP of TE34.

Rookie tight ends are difficult to predict since so much depends on situation. Fantasy owners have no idea who might get injured, opening up the door of opportunity. John Carlson is the only tight end worth considering in fantasy redraft leagues unless something happens in New York to pave the way for Keller. He can very well have a rookie season similar to Heath Miller in 2005. From the rookie tight ends that will be on the waiver wire, Jacob Tamme could surprise and be viable for fantasy owners.